Worlds Predictions

Alright, Worlds is around the corner, it's that time of year again to make predictions!

Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Russia
Romania
Great Britain
Italy
Japan
Germany

Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. GB

The USA is the only team to have three strong routines on each event. China's bars will be a huge asset for them, but their vault and especially floor will provide problems. I was feeling GB even before the announcement over Paseka's injury was made, but now Russia is even farther in the hole. A strong Gabby Jupp should help the team out a fair bit, especially on beam, and it's pretty strong all over. Italy could also surprise, though- they looked great at Novara and Golden League.


All Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Larisa Iordache

Simone on top is pretty obvious. I'm feeling Aliya in second after how great she looked at Russian Cup- that beam especially is amazing. I kept going back and forth on bronze between Larisa, Kyla Ross, and Yao Jinnan. I think Larisa and Yao both beat Kyla in ability, but Kyla is a rock. It should be a great fight.


Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Hong Un Jong
Guilia Steingruber
Oksana Chusovitina
Ellie Black
Anna Pavlova
Dipa Karmakar

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Giulia Steingruber
3. Mykayla Skinner

This one is fairly difficult as we haven't seen some of the big contenders (Hong Un Jong, Oksana Chusovitina, Phan Thi Ha Than) in a long time, so this might have to be adapted after the Asian Games. Figuring out places 2-4 is a bit difficult. If Mykayla does her vaults like day two of P&Gs, I might give her the slight edge over Giulia. And then she could also block like at Classics and be slaughtered. Hong Un Jong hasn't competed much this year, and so the Asian Games should provide more clarity where she's concerned. I'm rooting for Dipa out of all the Prods, and Pavlova got the silver at Europeans, so hopefully that's a good sign.


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Yao Jinnan
Huang Huidan
Aliya Mustafina
Daria Spridinova
Becky Downie
Ashton Locklear
Madison Kocian
Larissa Miller

Podium:
1. Yao Jinna
2. Huang Huidan
3. Becky Downie

Ugh, why can't this final be open to more gymnasts? It's stacked! I'm feeling the Chinese going 1-2. Huang could potentially be replaced by Shang, but I'd still have her in silver. The big question make is Aliya's bars, seeing as we don't know what her routine will actually look like. She could also definitely medal. Really, anyone in this final could medal if things go their way. And of course, we can't count the Germans out to qualify. I'm excited!!


Beam
Finalists:
Kyla Ross
Simone Biles
Aliya Mustafina
Maria Kharenkova
Larisa Iordache
Andreea Munteanu
Shang Chunsong
Bai Yawen

Podium:
1. Shang Chunsong
2. Maria Kharenkova
3. Larisa Iordache

This one's near impossible to predict. Shang Chunsong has looked pretty steady this year, where as Larisa and Maria have both had some issues, but her scores were also merciless last year. But then again she's competing at home this year. Maria and Larisa are both obvious picks, but can definitely be inconsistent. Kyla, on the other hand, is very consistent, but her difficulty puts her down in the favorites list. Simone's new beam could definitely put her on the podium if she has a solid effort, but she really should take out that wolf hop. It does her no favors. We of course have no idea what incarnation of her routine Aliya will bring to the table, but the reigning champion (I still can't get over this) can't be counted out. Andreea Munteanu and Bai Yawen both can't be counted out either with good difficulty and beautiful execution. And then of course, there are the Lauren Mitchells and Ellie Blacks who could sneak into the final. This one's incredibly wide open, and basically any combination of gymnasts who can be expected to final would be a conceivable podium.


Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Giulia Steingruber
Vanessa Ferrari
Larisa Iordache
Claudia Fragapane
Marta Pihan-Kulesza
Shang Chunsong

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Vanessa Ferrari

The first six on the list are almost certain to qualify, and the last two spots are fairly open. Lauren Mitchell might be able to snag a spot, Aliya did well in the floor final at Russian Cup, and in my dreams Ellie Black makes it into the finals again. Unfortunately, Mai Murakami doesn't look like she has good enough tumbling this year for the final. Simone winning is another obvious choice. Larisa's been super confident on floor this year and scoring consistently in the high 14s. Vanessa has also been strong and consistent, and word is going around that apparently she's upgrading, which could put her in favor over Larisa. I would cry tears of joy if Claudia were to medal.

US Worlds Team

In case you somehow have managed to miss out on the official announcement but have stumbled upon my humble little blog, the US Worlds team was named earlier this evening. The seven gymnasts named were Simone Biles, Kyla Ross, Mykayla Skinner, Alyssa Baumann, Ashton Locklear, Madison Kocian, and Madison Desch, with an alternate to be named later, with Brenna Dowell the non-traveling alternate.

Of course, there has been a bit of a collective emotional breakdown in the gymternet at the naming of Madison Desch over Brenna Dowell. And while I obviously, along with the rest of the gymternet, was pulling for Brenna with all my heart, I do believe the outrage seems a bit disproportionate. Desch was the alternate named on the nominative list, so it's not like we had no idea Martha's mine was in that thought process. Also, though we have no idea what went down at camp, Desch has been able to hit more than one routine this season. While I was hoping against hope until the very last second before I saw the selection that Brenna would be named and back to full capacity, I can't say I was shocked or even highly surprised. Unfortunately, the cards have not been stacked in her favor this year.

Now, again, I claim no knowledge of what happened at camp. If Brenna was vaulting consistent Amanars, I would say that she was the gymnast who should have been chosen and the US should have swallowed the very small sacrifice of putting Simone on bars. But I don't know that she was, though I was so hoping she was over the past two days. Martha has named the best teams in times the gymternet doubted her judgement. And really, Maddie will be the alternate, and when have we actually used the alternate anyway?

However, even in light of this disappointment, this team still looks very strong and poised to defend their title. Simone obviously needs no explanation, so I won't even bother with her. Kyla's consistency, level-headed approach to competition, execution, and specialty on bars and beam make her a great member, and she is good enough for the team lineup everywhere. She is a team player but also a standout individual, which will be great for this team. Mykayla was also becoming more and more of an obvious choice as the season went on. Her super high difficulty on vault and floor means she can bring in high scores, even if her execution has been the cause of scorn among the gymternet. I do think she has cleaned up in this area, though, and her form in the air in generally pretty decent, especially on vault. Alyssa Baumann is being brought for her great beam, an unusual weakness for the US, and floor, where she will likely be used as the table-setter. Ashton Locklear and Maddie K are both bars specialists with great D scores and good swing. Ashton has a talent for sticking her dismounts, and Maddie K apparently showed all four events at camp, helping clear any doubts about qualification lineups with this team.

Ultimately, I found this decision a disappointing one, but not a surprise. Brenna had a rough season and her camp clearly wasn't enough to make up for it. Maddie Desch certainly hasn't been perfect this year, but she has been decent overall and is an all arounder, which is what an alternate really needs to be. This team is still the favorite for the title, and Martha knows what she's doing.

Deanna Soza Health Scare

Arete posted on Facebook today that their lovely rising junior star, Deanne Soza, has contracted a rare eye infection. This post also said she is not even able to sleep and has to be treated hourly. The most alarming aspect of this is there is the possibility she could lose her sight.

Of course, the gymternet wishes Deanne the best and wants her to make a full recovery to health speedily and safely. Please keep Deanne and her family in your thoughts and prayers. If you were for some reason unaware, Spanny Tampson is collecting pictures/drawings/digital images the gymternet create to send in a well-wishing card, so if you want to contribute, please send your creation to spannytampson@gmail.com. We want Deanne to know she is supported!

I remember writing on here in the US season that Deanne has all the grit needed for beam. I am sure that grit she has on beam she will also display in a well-fought treatment and recovery process. Please be sure to show your support for Deanne in whatever way you can.

My Junior Crushes: Ragan Smith and Christina Desiderio

The US, of course, has a fair army of talented young ones, but of course there are those you just notice the first time you watch and you can't keep your eye off of. For me, there are two of these gymnasts in the ranks of American juniors: Ragan Smith and Christina Desiderio.

Ragan Smith
For all the gymnasts who have been compared to Shawn Johnson since 2009, Ragan is the only one who actually evokes that comparison to me. Ragan is just totally adorable but also has the power in her skills and is especially strong on beam and floor. Her switch to Texas Dreams this year has proven beneficial in many ways, and I really think she has the potential to be a very successful and balanced all arounder.

I first came across Ragan after Classics last year when the gymternet's collective ears pricked up at the sound of the "Puttin' on the Ritz" cut formerly used by Ksenia Semenova and we dug up her floor from the endless posted videos.

Admittedly, it wasn't a love-at-first-sight reaction for me. I thought she was cute, but I didn't think she was too much of anything special. But something about her kept her name niggling at the back of my mind, and the more I watched, the more I enjoyed what I saw.

Bars is definitely her weakest event, but Ragan has made great strides here and I really think she has it in her to have bars viable for strong all around performances. Her bars last year had a LOT that had to be worked on, most prominently very labored swing and dead hangs. She also was unable to make it through a set without some sort of major errors in the US elite season.

While bars is still a problem area for Ragan, she's had some great improvement this year. Her swing has improved by leaps and bounds, and KZB has done a great job of capitalizing on her better work with Stalder variations. I'd like to hope she can add Chow and/or Maloney variations in her work. She still had big problems at P&Gs, but at Classics she had a clean set which was able to bring in a 13.650, her best bars score of her elite career (so far).

Vault saw a big upgrade for Ragan this year as she began vaulting a DTY. Her FTY from last year was certainly problematic, with loss of leg form and piking at her hips.

Her DTY was chucked at Classics and she fell to her knees, but at P&Gs definitely saw improvement. Day one was still fairly scary with it barely brought around, but day two's was much improved. That 9.00 E score was still fairly fishy, but her position in the air, leg form, and chest position on landing were all much improved. I'd like to see more attention given to that block, but I trust KZB with this one.

Beam is one of Ragan's specialty events and she could do great things. Her beam from Classics last year was incredibly steady and she had power and ability oozing out the entire routine. She lacked some amplitude in her dance skills, but she had nice position. She lacked some refinement everywhere, but she had all the goods for great beam work. She did well enough to score over 14.000.

Under KZB, Ragan's beam has only improved. She gained a lot of that polish she lacked last year while still having all the risk. Her beam followed Ragan's trend of improving throughout the season to earn a career high on day two, 14.550. She still had great confidence and steadiness, but her new skills provided some blips for her. I would like for her to go back to her nice switch half instead of the switch ring. Her sheep jump had definitely improved, though, and I am looking forward to her future beam work.

Floor is where Ragan really sparkles. I personally prefer her interpretation to Semenova's, but Semenova did compete in the 10-skills-count-for-your-D-score era. Her floor has very creative and engaging choreography and it suits her perfectly. As I said above, floor was where Ragan first slipped into my radar in 2013. The best performance of this routine last year was P&Gs day one, when she received 13.800 and had a very strong performance. Her tumbling lacked air time and amplitude, but her power was evident.

Day two of 2014 P&Gs was the best performance of her floor routine. She scored 14.650 for her dazzling routine which had great tumbling and musicality. Her performance has improved by leaps and bounds since last year. She's also done some big upgrading and has been able to harness that power into big tumbling with great amplitude.

Ragan is a tiny little pocket rocket but also has some really nice style. Texas Dreams has really helped channel her talent more efficiently into great skills and routines. Ragan's cuteness is what caught my eye at first, but she has a ton of talent and potential. Her charisma and charm makes her a fan favorite, and her power makes her a standout. Beam and floor are incredible for her, her vault can be great for her, and I know she has bars in her if she can keep working with her strengths. Ragan just has to keep cleaning up and she could be something incredible.

Christina Desiderio
In case you haven't been able to tell by the way I bring her up whenever US juniors are the topic, Christina is one of my favorite. In terms of pure ability, Christina is right at the top of the sizable junior pack. She has power, swing, and a great arsenal of skills. The one problem that clouds Christina's performance is her mind. She is wildly inconsistent, which culminated in her heartbreaking bars routine on day two of P&Gs. If she can get her mind under control, Christina will be a force to be reckoned with. Plus, she trains at one of the nation's top gyms!

Christina first slipped onto my radar last summer when I was watching videos of the juniors from the US season looking to scope out the talent, if you will. It was a much more love-at-first-sight reaction than I had for Ragan, and I knew I'd found a special gymnast.

Beam was where Christina first caught my eye. Unfortunately, Christina had issues with that event every competition in the season this year. She fell every time she competed in Classics and P&Gs, on her layout, sheep jump, and switch ring.

However, she still has some great skills and lots of good work. Beam is definitely her strong spot in terms of skill, and she could be absolutely great.
Her beam from Classics last year was unbelievable. She had impressive difficulty and nary a waver in sight, which shows she does have the confidence she needs, she just has to find it. Her work is beautiful and light- her jump series especially looks like she's being pulled up from the beam by strings. And her wolf turn work is some of the best!

Bars is generally Christina's lowest-scoring event, and unfortunately she is largely remembered there for her disastrous final routine of P&Gs this year which left her visibly devastated, but she has some good work there, especially her super high Tkatchev. She needs a good deal of cleaning up and has been unable to score higher than the low 13s, but Parkettes does have a pretty good record on bars.

Her bars day one of P&Gs this year definitely looked to be the best she's done so far to me. Her Tkatchev, if anything, looked higher and her form looked better than last year as well. Her only real problem was a flat transfer to the high bar, but it certainly didn't result in a dead hang. Her difficulty is a bit low, and I definitely think there is room to upgrade. I trust that she can put up solid bars routines next year and that what happened day two of P&Gs isn't representative of her typical bar work.

Vault saw a big upgrade for Christina this year when she joined the Junior DTY club. Christina had a really nice FTY which was nicely flighted. Her form wasn't perfect and had some leg separation and a little bit of piking, but it was a very solid vault and there were no major issues.

Her DTY definitely looks serviceable and I think she has good vaulting in her future. Her first two attempts were fairly underrotated and she landed with a very low chest. On day two of P&Gs, she fixed that problem well and in fact overrotated a bit. She just needs to figure out the right amount of power she needs to give her vault.

Like Ragan, Christina has lots of charisma on floor. She also has a really good amount of power, and her tumbling shows it. Her floor last year was relatively unexceptional in terms of skill level, but she still had a long three years before becoming a senior. All of her tumbling was good and powerful and clean, and she really enjoyed her performance. Also, while I HATE that a random aerial can fulfill the tumbling requirement, hers looks really cool.

This years floor routine is one big party. I love it! She also has done some good upgrading, including a big double layout! Her form is really good except for her 2 1/2 twist. She also has great amplitude on her leaps and a beautiful double turn. Her best performance of her new routine was day two of P&Gs, where she scored a super 14.450. Her routine is really entertaining, and it fits Christina so well!

I'm still weeping inside for that bars routine, because she was doing her best of 2014 all the rest of day two. Christina has what it takes, I know it! Confidence is all she needs. Her power is great, and her swing on bars is right where it needs to be. All her work is light and beautiful, but she's really powerful too, which is great. Her form is generally lovely, and she can work a crowd. Christina is a total package gymnast, and I only hope next year will see her stronger than ever!