I'm just going to put it out there at the beginning of the post that my views aren't necessarily those of the majority of the gymternet on the whole Russia ban debacle.
Personally, I see both sides of the argument.
Against the ban:
It's not fair to punish the clean athletes. There's no evidence that the gymnasts doped, so they should be allowed to compete.
For the ban:
Yes, there's no evidence that the gymnasts doped, but they still haven't undergone legitimate drug testing for two years. Also, this is an institutional problem in Russia, with the Russian government in on the cover-up, so Russia has to be banned entirely to adequately punish those actions.
Personally, I think the IOC decision was too lenient. I agree with the head of the American doping agency when he said the IOC "failed to take decisive leadership". I think the IOC should have taken it upon themselves to determine which sports would be allowed to compete, and my position is that Russia should not be allowed to send athletes from any sport where a doping cover-up was found, at least on a large-scale level- maybe 10+ athletes? Not to mention the whole "federations have 12 days to determine eligibility" mess.
The bigger issue I have with the ruling is that the Russian athletes will still be allowed to compete under the Russian flag. I support Russian athletes who don't show any evidence of doping being allowed to compete, but I think they should be competing under the Olympic flag with Russia not being credited for any of the medals its athletes earn. With its athletes being allowed to compete under the Russian flag, Russia will still be rewarded after being found guilty of systematic abuse of doping testing, when it really is the Russian doping system that needs to be punished. I think allowing Russian athletes to compete but requiring them to compete under the Olympic flag and not the Russian flag would have done a much better job of being fair to the clean athletes while still punishing the Russian system for its corruption.
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Sunday, July 24, 2016
Friday, July 1, 2016
So, is Svetlana Khorkina available?
Wait- countries other than the US exist? What?
So yeah, this blog has been a bit America-centric in the last few weeks, but the Russian Cup has come along and provided plenty of fodder for discussion. Mostly in the form of ranting, heavy sighs, and aggressive "UGGGHHH"s.
If you were hoping the Russians in Penza were going to display better preparation as we drew closer to the Olympics, sorry, because about the exact opposite happened. Awesome. Great. Who needs consistency, really? It's just a hallmark of dirty American gymnastics anyway.
Bars meltdowns were the big trend of day 1, which is worrying since that is supposed to be the event where Russia can get their big scores, and they're kind of depending on it to make up for where they lack on other events. They had 4 14+ routines, two of which came from Kapitonova, who fell, and Skrypnik, who we all know are never getting selected, one from Melnikova, who also fell, and the other from Spiridonova. And while Spiridonova is in genuine contention, she is dead weight everywhere else when Russia is looking to plug holes, and she even had her own issues with a .5 late pirouette. Paseka is back on vault despite some scares she might still be in traction or whatever was supposed to be going on with her, but only reached 13.25 on bars, where she is also supposed to be able to contribute, especially now with Vika out.
Angelina grabbed the beam and fell on her double pike dismount day 1, which was definitely worrying since who are we supposed to be able to put on beam if Melka starts breaking down? She pulled it together for a hit, if tentative, routine day 2 which made everyone let out an extremely tensely held breath, and so we carry on. She actually pulled everything together day 2, improving on bars as well for another hit and keeping pace on vault and floor. I won't be surprised if she is used on all four in the team final. But it does definitely make a contrast to the American nationals where pretty much everyone had their issues but only two who have at all legitimate shots actually fell, and then on routines where they're not needed.
Seda is actually pulling out about her best work yet, which is lovely to see and not exactly universal. Definitely reminds me of how she seemed to be the only Russian who actually cared about their performance at the end of the team final last year. The Rods seem to put her on teams even when her work makes her inclusion arguable, so I'd not be at all surprised to see her on the Olympic team, especially with so many being sidelined. She has been one of the top on beam in Penza, which I find more than just mildly amusing. But I think that amusement is outweighed by depression. Don't forget that she is at the top with a semi-crashed dismount day 1.
Aliya has fallen thrice on bars across the two days. That is about the last thing Russia needed or expected. One day can be a fluke off day, two days is concerning. She is back to the AA now, which is definitely a weight of Russia's collective shoulders, but man. She's still struggling to get an acro series in. Why doesn't she just have a BHS+BHS series at this point to make sure she gets it?
Afan and Kharenkova are both out with injury right now, to top everything off. Kharenkova was not the expected team member in the way Afan is, but she had the preferable hit record compared to Tutkhalyan, and with Vika out, Russia is in the throes of a HOW DO WE PUT TOGETHER A BEAM LINEUP??? crisis. (Side note: how much do you think Russia would love to have Ragan Smith right now?)
Afan's situation I think sums up the why Russia is in such a relative shambles. She got injured before Euros, and yet, instead of replace her with Kapitonova, she was still put up in competition. The reasoning? They would have had to rely on an FTY otherwise. And now she's spending the lead up to the Olympics in Germany getting surgery. The Rods never see beyond what's right under their nose. Not having three DTYs meant Russia might not win Euros, so she had to be kept, never mind that it might put her ability to compete in Rio at risk. It's the same thing they've been doing all quad. Remember when they had an Olympic-worthy Universiade team and then were scrambling to find three gymnasts they could send to Worlds? How about the number of minor competitions they've sent Aliya to instead of having her rest only for her to be weakened come the major season? They consistently put success at whatever competition they're at RIGHT NOW above success later in the season.
Alright, so the Olympic picture. Melnikova's in. Aliya's in, no matter what happened in Penza. The other two spots are between Paseka, Spiridonova, Afan, and Tutkhalyan. Honestly, to me, at this point, it makes sense just to take the team that has the most potential for individual success, which this group could still have a fair share of. The three picks for that would obviously be Paseka, Spiridonova, and Afan if she gets back. The problem there is either Spiridonova will have to go up on beam or Afan will have to get beam back, which is a lot to ask in her recovery. Tutkhalyan is preferable to Spiridonova for beam, but it's still kind of worrying that she's a lineup savior there.
So yeah, this blog has been a bit America-centric in the last few weeks, but the Russian Cup has come along and provided plenty of fodder for discussion. Mostly in the form of ranting, heavy sighs, and aggressive "UGGGHHH"s.
If you were hoping the Russians in Penza were going to display better preparation as we drew closer to the Olympics, sorry, because about the exact opposite happened. Awesome. Great. Who needs consistency, really? It's just a hallmark of dirty American gymnastics anyway.
Bars meltdowns were the big trend of day 1, which is worrying since that is supposed to be the event where Russia can get their big scores, and they're kind of depending on it to make up for where they lack on other events. They had 4 14+ routines, two of which came from Kapitonova, who fell, and Skrypnik, who we all know are never getting selected, one from Melnikova, who also fell, and the other from Spiridonova. And while Spiridonova is in genuine contention, she is dead weight everywhere else when Russia is looking to plug holes, and she even had her own issues with a .5 late pirouette. Paseka is back on vault despite some scares she might still be in traction or whatever was supposed to be going on with her, but only reached 13.25 on bars, where she is also supposed to be able to contribute, especially now with Vika out.
Angelina grabbed the beam and fell on her double pike dismount day 1, which was definitely worrying since who are we supposed to be able to put on beam if Melka starts breaking down? She pulled it together for a hit, if tentative, routine day 2 which made everyone let out an extremely tensely held breath, and so we carry on. She actually pulled everything together day 2, improving on bars as well for another hit and keeping pace on vault and floor. I won't be surprised if she is used on all four in the team final. But it does definitely make a contrast to the American nationals where pretty much everyone had their issues but only two who have at all legitimate shots actually fell, and then on routines where they're not needed.
Seda is actually pulling out about her best work yet, which is lovely to see and not exactly universal. Definitely reminds me of how she seemed to be the only Russian who actually cared about their performance at the end of the team final last year. The Rods seem to put her on teams even when her work makes her inclusion arguable, so I'd not be at all surprised to see her on the Olympic team, especially with so many being sidelined. She has been one of the top on beam in Penza, which I find more than just mildly amusing. But I think that amusement is outweighed by depression. Don't forget that she is at the top with a semi-crashed dismount day 1.
Aliya has fallen thrice on bars across the two days. That is about the last thing Russia needed or expected. One day can be a fluke off day, two days is concerning. She is back to the AA now, which is definitely a weight of Russia's collective shoulders, but man. She's still struggling to get an acro series in. Why doesn't she just have a BHS+BHS series at this point to make sure she gets it?
Afan and Kharenkova are both out with injury right now, to top everything off. Kharenkova was not the expected team member in the way Afan is, but she had the preferable hit record compared to Tutkhalyan, and with Vika out, Russia is in the throes of a HOW DO WE PUT TOGETHER A BEAM LINEUP??? crisis. (Side note: how much do you think Russia would love to have Ragan Smith right now?)
Afan's situation I think sums up the why Russia is in such a relative shambles. She got injured before Euros, and yet, instead of replace her with Kapitonova, she was still put up in competition. The reasoning? They would have had to rely on an FTY otherwise. And now she's spending the lead up to the Olympics in Germany getting surgery. The Rods never see beyond what's right under their nose. Not having three DTYs meant Russia might not win Euros, so she had to be kept, never mind that it might put her ability to compete in Rio at risk. It's the same thing they've been doing all quad. Remember when they had an Olympic-worthy Universiade team and then were scrambling to find three gymnasts they could send to Worlds? How about the number of minor competitions they've sent Aliya to instead of having her rest only for her to be weakened come the major season? They consistently put success at whatever competition they're at RIGHT NOW above success later in the season.
Alright, so the Olympic picture. Melnikova's in. Aliya's in, no matter what happened in Penza. The other two spots are between Paseka, Spiridonova, Afan, and Tutkhalyan. Honestly, to me, at this point, it makes sense just to take the team that has the most potential for individual success, which this group could still have a fair share of. The three picks for that would obviously be Paseka, Spiridonova, and Afan if she gets back. The problem there is either Spiridonova will have to go up on beam or Afan will have to get beam back, which is a lot to ask in her recovery. Tutkhalyan is preferable to Spiridonova for beam, but it's still kind of worrying that she's a lineup savior there.
Monday, June 13, 2016
Rant/USA depth analysis
So, I saw some idiot saying that the US doesn't really have depth right now, and because I'm irritable like that, I decided to do a little combination rant/analysis post to prove 'em wrong.
And because some idiot also recently submitted a confession to GFC saying the US was putting all of its eggs in one basket with Simone, let's start by talking about how there are still near limitless options with her gone. Without Simone, there are still Gabby, Aly, Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Brenna, and Mykayla at the top, and then Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals (she killed it at Classics and VT/UB workers are well suited to the team and her floor is awesome and I'll totally get all Hagrid don't-insult-Albus-Dumbledore-in-front-of-me when it comes to Meals) on the outside as well. That's 13 totally viable options to choose from. And a combination of options that would make picking out of a hat a viable option for a gold-contending team.
To prove my point, I had a little fun with a random generator and here are the five gymnasts I got: Aly, Bailie, Alyssa, Brenna, Rachel
VT: (Bailie) Alyssa, Brenna, Aly
UB: (Aly) Bailie, Rachel, Brenna
BB: (Rachel) Bailie, Aly, Alyssa
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Brenna, Aly
This team is definitely not close to as strong as the one that will be named assuming some plague doesn't befall the team or VRod doesn't hire the Russian mafia to Tanya Harding everyone, and China would definitely be narrowing in on it, but it would still be in the hunt for the top prize.
Too easy? Of course. Alright, let's constrain the team only to gymnasts who turned senior this quad, so not only eliminating Gabby and Aly, but also Brenna and Mykayla. So that leaves Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
I'd pick a team of Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, and Alyssa
VT: Alyssa/Ragan, Laurie, Maggie
UB: (Ragan) Maggie, Laurie, Maddie
BB: (Maggie) Alyssa, Laurie, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Laurie, Ragan, Maggie
And this one is stronger than my random generator team (not that surprising, really), so again, strong contenders for gold.
Still too easy? Maggie and Laurie carried that last team- let's get rid of them too. So now the group is reduced to Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
So the team I'd pick now is Ragan, Alyssa, Bailie, Maddie, and Meals
VT: Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Meals
UB: (Ragan) Bailie, Meals, Maddie
BB: (Meals) Bailie, Alyssa, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Meals, Ragan
Still four strong lineups, still expected to medal, still potential for gold.
So name me another team where you could constrain selection to only gymnasts who turned seniors this quad and THEN cut out the top three remaining AAers and still have a team that would be considered as much a lock for a medal as a team can ever be in this sport.
China:
Alright, so out goes Shang Chunsong, Tan Jiaxin, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, and Mao Yi.
The team: Chen Siyi, Fan Yilin, Huang Huidan, Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru
VT: Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru, Chen Siyi
UB: Zhu Xiofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
BB: Zhu Xiaofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
FX: Zhu Xiaofang, Chen Siyi, Liu Jinru
Bars is still great, and beam is fine enough, but they're stuck with an FTY on vault and floor is once again a weakness.
Russia:
For the Russian we-expect-80%-of-our-team-to-be-repeat-Olympians Federation, out go Aliya, Vika, Afan, Maria Bee Farm, Angelina Melnikova, Seda Tutkhalyan, and Maria Kharenkova.
The team: Natalia Kapitonova, Evgenia Shelgunova, Daria Skrypnik, Anastasia Dmitrieva, Daria Spiridonova
VT: Shelgunova, Skrypnik, Dmitrieva
UB: Skrypnik, Kapitonova, Spiridonova
BB: Spiridonova/Kapitonova, Skrypnik, Shelgunova
FX: Kapitonova, Dmitrieva, Shelgunova
Three DTYs for them and the bars lineup is still killer, but relying on Spiridonova, Kapitonova, or Skrypnik on beam is never a good idea and Shelgunova has been very up and down there this year as well, so who knows how many would stay on. Floor also has three okay routines, but is lacking any standout and would be outstripped pretty easily.
Even with these ridiculous eleventh plague of the Exodus plague on the gymnasts constraints, China and Russia would still be able to put together pretty good teams that would acquit themselves well, but with Brazil and GB mounting fierce offensives, both of them would have stiff competition for a place on the podium. But compare them to the US plague on the gymnasts team, who would still be a practical shoe-in for a medal and could mount a good offensive for gold, and it's ridiculously obvious that the US does, in fact, lead the world in depth.
And because some idiot also recently submitted a confession to GFC saying the US was putting all of its eggs in one basket with Simone, let's start by talking about how there are still near limitless options with her gone. Without Simone, there are still Gabby, Aly, Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Brenna, and Mykayla at the top, and then Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals (she killed it at Classics and VT/UB workers are well suited to the team and her floor is awesome and I'll totally get all Hagrid don't-insult-Albus-Dumbledore-in-front-of-me when it comes to Meals) on the outside as well. That's 13 totally viable options to choose from. And a combination of options that would make picking out of a hat a viable option for a gold-contending team.
To prove my point, I had a little fun with a random generator and here are the five gymnasts I got: Aly, Bailie, Alyssa, Brenna, Rachel
VT: (Bailie) Alyssa, Brenna, Aly
UB: (Aly) Bailie, Rachel, Brenna
BB: (Rachel) Bailie, Aly, Alyssa
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Brenna, Aly
This team is definitely not close to as strong as the one that will be named assuming some plague doesn't befall the team or VRod doesn't hire the Russian mafia to Tanya Harding everyone, and China would definitely be narrowing in on it, but it would still be in the hunt for the top prize.
Too easy? Of course. Alright, let's constrain the team only to gymnasts who turned senior this quad, so not only eliminating Gabby and Aly, but also Brenna and Mykayla. So that leaves Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
I'd pick a team of Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, and Alyssa
VT: Alyssa/Ragan, Laurie, Maggie
UB: (Ragan) Maggie, Laurie, Maddie
BB: (Maggie) Alyssa, Laurie, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Laurie, Ragan, Maggie
And this one is stronger than my random generator team (not that surprising, really), so again, strong contenders for gold.
Still too easy? Maggie and Laurie carried that last team- let's get rid of them too. So now the group is reduced to Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
So the team I'd pick now is Ragan, Alyssa, Bailie, Maddie, and Meals
VT: Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Meals
UB: (Ragan) Bailie, Meals, Maddie
BB: (Meals) Bailie, Alyssa, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Meals, Ragan
Still four strong lineups, still expected to medal, still potential for gold.
So name me another team where you could constrain selection to only gymnasts who turned seniors this quad and THEN cut out the top three remaining AAers and still have a team that would be considered as much a lock for a medal as a team can ever be in this sport.
China:
Alright, so out goes Shang Chunsong, Tan Jiaxin, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, and Mao Yi.
The team: Chen Siyi, Fan Yilin, Huang Huidan, Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru
VT: Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru, Chen Siyi
UB: Zhu Xiofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
BB: Zhu Xiaofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
FX: Zhu Xiaofang, Chen Siyi, Liu Jinru
Bars is still great, and beam is fine enough, but they're stuck with an FTY on vault and floor is once again a weakness.
Russia:
For the Russian we-expect-80%-of-our-team-to-be-repeat-Olympians Federation, out go Aliya, Vika, Afan, Maria Bee Farm, Angelina Melnikova, Seda Tutkhalyan, and Maria Kharenkova.
The team: Natalia Kapitonova, Evgenia Shelgunova, Daria Skrypnik, Anastasia Dmitrieva, Daria Spiridonova
VT: Shelgunova, Skrypnik, Dmitrieva
UB: Skrypnik, Kapitonova, Spiridonova
BB: Spiridonova/Kapitonova, Skrypnik, Shelgunova
FX: Kapitonova, Dmitrieva, Shelgunova
Three DTYs for them and the bars lineup is still killer, but relying on Spiridonova, Kapitonova, or Skrypnik on beam is never a good idea and Shelgunova has been very up and down there this year as well, so who knows how many would stay on. Floor also has three okay routines, but is lacking any standout and would be outstripped pretty easily.
Even with these ridiculous eleventh plague of the Exodus plague on the gymnasts constraints, China and Russia would still be able to put together pretty good teams that would acquit themselves well, but with Brazil and GB mounting fierce offensives, both of them would have stiff competition for a place on the podium. But compare them to the US plague on the gymnasts team, who would still be a practical shoe-in for a medal and could mount a good offensive for gold, and it's ridiculously obvious that the US does, in fact, lead the world in depth.
Monday, May 30, 2016
(Senior) Euros Predictions
With the whole end of the school year hubbub, I got caught off guard once again this year as to just how close Euros are. Close as in, they start Wednesday. So here are my predictions for the senior scene, because I'm honestly not informed enough to do junior predictions. So here are those: ZUBOVA WINS EVERYTHING!
Team
Finalists:
Russia
Romania
Great Britain
Italy
Germany
France
Belgium
Switzerland
Podium:
1. Russia
2. Great Britain
3. Italy
Russia and GB look pretty firmly at the head of the pack. Otherwise, a lot of teams aren't sending full A team squads. I'm really not quite sure who to pick for bronze.
Vault
Finalists:
Giulia Steingruber
Seda Tutkhalyan
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Ellie Downie
Claudia Fragapane
Zsofia Kovacs
Teja Belak
Tjasa Kysselef
Podium:
1. Giulia Steingruber
2. Ellie Downie
3. Afan
This, of course, assumes Afan will come with two vaults, which you can never be certain of. Steingruber is clearly the favorite, as always at Euros this quad. Ellie's work is always easy on the eyes and allows for some good scores, and I hope to see her rewarded for it at a high-level international this week.
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Daria Spiridonova
Becky Downie
Ruby Harrold
Nina Derwael
Loan His
Kim Bui
Martina Rizzelli
Podium:
1. Daria Spiridonova
2. Becky Downie
3. Aliya Mustafina
Becky Downie's hit magic at Euros the last two years, so I'm picking her as safe for this final. Daria is obviously the clear front runner, like Giulia in vault. Aliya's basic routine should be clean enough for her to take a medal easily in this field.
Balance Beam
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Angelina Melnikova
Catalina Ponor
Gabby Jupp
Becky Downie
Nina Derwael
Giulia Steingruber
Vasiliki Millousi
Podium:
1. Angelina Melnikova
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Catalina Ponor
Melnikova has been dominating the beam so far. Aliya and Catalina are both consistent picks with routines that garner high scores.
Floor
Finalists:
Giulia Steingruber
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Angelina Melnikova
Claudia Fragapane
Ellie Downie
Elisa Meneghini
Catalina Ponor
Yana Horokhova
Podium:
1. Afan
2. Giula Steingruber
3. Claudia Fragapane
I had absolutely no idea who to pick for the last EF spot, so I went Horokhova because I like her and she made a World Cup EF on floor, so why not. Afan has had a good legacy on floor in her comeback, so she seemed the obvious choice for gold. And though Claudia has a bit of a history of outplacing Giulia, Giulia's Gogean! I'd like to see her get a higher medal at Euros.
Team
Finalists:
Russia
Romania
Great Britain
Italy
Germany
France
Belgium
Switzerland
Podium:
1. Russia
2. Great Britain
3. Italy
Russia and GB look pretty firmly at the head of the pack. Otherwise, a lot of teams aren't sending full A team squads. I'm really not quite sure who to pick for bronze.
Vault
Finalists:
Giulia Steingruber
Seda Tutkhalyan
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Ellie Downie
Claudia Fragapane
Zsofia Kovacs
Teja Belak
Tjasa Kysselef
Podium:
1. Giulia Steingruber
2. Ellie Downie
3. Afan
This, of course, assumes Afan will come with two vaults, which you can never be certain of. Steingruber is clearly the favorite, as always at Euros this quad. Ellie's work is always easy on the eyes and allows for some good scores, and I hope to see her rewarded for it at a high-level international this week.
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Daria Spiridonova
Becky Downie
Ruby Harrold
Nina Derwael
Loan His
Kim Bui
Martina Rizzelli
Podium:
1. Daria Spiridonova
2. Becky Downie
3. Aliya Mustafina
Becky Downie's hit magic at Euros the last two years, so I'm picking her as safe for this final. Daria is obviously the clear front runner, like Giulia in vault. Aliya's basic routine should be clean enough for her to take a medal easily in this field.
Balance Beam
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Angelina Melnikova
Catalina Ponor
Gabby Jupp
Becky Downie
Nina Derwael
Giulia Steingruber
Vasiliki Millousi
Podium:
1. Angelina Melnikova
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Catalina Ponor
Melnikova has been dominating the beam so far. Aliya and Catalina are both consistent picks with routines that garner high scores.
Floor
Finalists:
Giulia Steingruber
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Angelina Melnikova
Claudia Fragapane
Ellie Downie
Elisa Meneghini
Catalina Ponor
Yana Horokhova
Podium:
1. Afan
2. Giula Steingruber
3. Claudia Fragapane
I had absolutely no idea who to pick for the last EF spot, so I went Horokhova because I like her and she made a World Cup EF on floor, so why not. Afan has had a good legacy on floor in her comeback, so she seemed the obvious choice for gold. And though Claudia has a bit of a history of outplacing Giulia, Giulia's Gogean! I'd like to see her get a higher medal at Euros.
Thursday, May 26, 2016
May Rio Predictions
Now that the Test Event has passed and the US have presented all their top gymnasts (who aren't injured), I'm going to do predictions again. Because it's the Olympic year, and why not do predictions a bunch of times?
USA Team
Simone Biles, Gabby Douglas, Aly Raisman, Brenna Dowell, Laurie Hernanadez
VT: (Hernandez) Douglas, Dowell, Biles
UB: (Biles) Douglas, Hernandez, Dowell
BB: (Douglas) Raisman, Hernandez, Biles
FX: (Douglas) Hernandez, Raisman, Biles
I was still holding out for Norah, but the Classics list has been released and she's still not on the roster, which is not good news. Yes, I included Dowell. Get used to predictions that seem to be a bit optimistic, because this will not be the last. I mean really, why not go for your I-mean-it-could-happen predictions in an ultimately inconsequential blog post? But seriously, if she can get the Amanar back and prove that the fall in the Pac Rims EF was just a fluke, she will be a tough asset to leave home. So, Brenna darling, do us a favor and get the Amanar back, okay? I'm sure it can't be all that hard (sarcasm, if I didn't make that obviously clear enough). This is one ridiculous floor team.
China Team
Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Mao Yi, Liu Tingting, Tan Jiaxin
VT: (Shang) Liu, Tan, Mao
UB: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Fan
BB: (Mao) Liu, Shang, Fan
FX: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Mao
I know China already named their team, but I really just think Tan Jiaxin makes a much smarter team member than Wang Yan. Ultimately, they have an awesome mix of ladies who are extremely well-suited to a six-person team, which makes things annoying here. China has, somewhat shockingly, come to a place where Wang Yan isn't necessary for either their vault or floor lineups. And Liu's higher beam consistency and AA potential give her higher stock than Wang Yan, in my opinion.
GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Rebecca Tunney
VT: (Tunney) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Fragapane) E Downie, Tunney, B Downie
BB: (Tunney) Fragapane, E Downie, B Downie
FX: (Tunney) Tinkler, E Downie, Fragapane
Whelp, Catherine Lyons is inheriting the can't-stay-healthy-for-more-than-a-week curse, and Tyesha, who I really wanted to go for UB and BB, has had it all along, so curtains for both of them. But guess who has surfaced again? Rebecca Tunney! So please let this not curse her to be an invalid, too.
Russia Team
Angelina Melnikova, Maria Kharenkova, Aliya Mustafina, Ksenia Afanasyeva, Maria Paseka
VT: (Kharenkova) Melnikova, Afan, Paseka
UB: (Tutkhalyan) Melnikova, Paseka, Mustafina
BB: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Afan
I'm holding to my prediction that Vika will not be back to compete this season and Aliya will be relegated to two events, thanks to the curse of VRod. Melka has been absolutely on fire so far, so hopefully she can take a spot and run with it. Kharenkova has shown herself to be a surprisingly good option so far, doing well on beam in all phases of the competition and putting up respectable floor scores in two (well, a 14.900 is certainly more than respectable, but also steering rather determinedly toward the ridiculous) at Russian Champs, and she did well at Osijek on beam also.
Brazil Team
Flavia Saraiva, Jade Barbosa, Lorraine Oliveira, Rebeca Andrade, Daniele Hypolito
VT: (Saraiva) Oliveira, Barbosa, Andrade
UB: (Barbosa) Oliveira, Saraiva, Andrade
BB: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
FX: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
Andrade is baaaaack!! This is a really well-balanced team, and they look poised to do amazing things!
Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Russia
GB
Brazil
Canada
Germany
Japan
Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Brazil
Yep. Brazil. I did it. I told you there were predictions in this that verge away from the strictly realistic. They completely rocked the house at the test event, so it seems home crowd support really does carry them. I mean, they got a higher score than China did in qualifications at Glasgow! I'm pulling for them, blindly, some might say. And I have the US and China 1-2 because of course.
All Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Gabby Douglas
3. Angelina Melnikova
Larisa is looking not to be at ideal condition to be earning an Olympic ticket, and I want her to get it so badly, but because NOTHING can go right for Romania at the moment, I'm not holding my breath. Cata is going. I'm working on accepting it. And if Larisa can get the spot, then good surprise for me. But anyway, all that to say: I'm predicting Vika, Aliya, and Larisa are out, leaving things a bit sparse at the top. But once again, Melka has been on fire, so she shall swoop in to claim the open spot!
Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Hong Un Jong
Maria Paseka
Ellie Downie
Giulia Steingruber
Dipa Karmaker
Marcia Videux
Alexa Moreno
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Maria Paseka
Biles has gotten the Cheng! Let the world rejoice! She shall finally reign vault! And Hong Un Jong must place higher than Maria Paseka- please!
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Fan Yilin
Shang Chunsong
Elisabeth Seitz
Sophie Scheder
Becky Downie
Brenna Dowell
Gabby Douglas
Podim:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Shang Chunsong
3. Elisabeth Seitz
Another pretty stacked deck. Bars has been ridiculous this quad. Fan unveiled the 7.0 D-score routine, and, oddly enough, she's the only world champion from last year who I predict will return to defend her title, so the chances are looking pretty promising for her to validate my desires and claim the Olympic title. Aliya needs to add something more to her basic routine to medal again, which I would be 100% behind. Shang NEEDS a medal from a high competition, and fortunately, she's looking to be toward the forefront of this pack. And for the final spot (assuming Aliya sticks with basic), I want it to go to Downie, but she's too inconsistent to be a strong pick.
Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Laurie Hernandez
Sanne Wevers
Pauline Schaefer
Liu Tingting
Flavia Saraiva
Shang Chunsong
Maria Kharenkova
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Laurie Hernandez
3. Flavia Saraiva
Fortunately, with some gymnasts becoming markedly more consistent this year, it looks like this year's beam final might be a significant improvement from last year's. Flava Flav (did I make this up myself? because I was pretty sure it was a common nickname when I started using it but I don't actually see it anywhere...) is an example of one of those who has blessedly improved her consistency. The Americans look good to be consistent as well. And then there's the predictions I refuse to make for reasons....
Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Giulia Steingruber
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Claudia Fragapane
Ellie Downie
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Ksenia Afanasyeva
I had Flavia making the final in January, but the mythical 6.3 routine appears to be nowhere in sight, so I must pass now. This podium pick feels obvious and boring to me, but there's nothing else I really see happening either, so... Can Claudia get a medal? Because I just really want that to happen.
USA Team
Simone Biles, Gabby Douglas, Aly Raisman, Brenna Dowell, Laurie Hernanadez
VT: (Hernandez) Douglas, Dowell, Biles
UB: (Biles) Douglas, Hernandez, Dowell
BB: (Douglas) Raisman, Hernandez, Biles
FX: (Douglas) Hernandez, Raisman, Biles
I was still holding out for Norah, but the Classics list has been released and she's still not on the roster, which is not good news. Yes, I included Dowell. Get used to predictions that seem to be a bit optimistic, because this will not be the last. I mean really, why not go for your I-mean-it-could-happen predictions in an ultimately inconsequential blog post? But seriously, if she can get the Amanar back and prove that the fall in the Pac Rims EF was just a fluke, she will be a tough asset to leave home. So, Brenna darling, do us a favor and get the Amanar back, okay? I'm sure it can't be all that hard (sarcasm, if I didn't make that obviously clear enough). This is one ridiculous floor team.
China Team
Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Mao Yi, Liu Tingting, Tan Jiaxin
VT: (Shang) Liu, Tan, Mao
UB: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Fan
BB: (Mao) Liu, Shang, Fan
FX: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Mao
I know China already named their team, but I really just think Tan Jiaxin makes a much smarter team member than Wang Yan. Ultimately, they have an awesome mix of ladies who are extremely well-suited to a six-person team, which makes things annoying here. China has, somewhat shockingly, come to a place where Wang Yan isn't necessary for either their vault or floor lineups. And Liu's higher beam consistency and AA potential give her higher stock than Wang Yan, in my opinion.
GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Rebecca Tunney
VT: (Tunney) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Fragapane) E Downie, Tunney, B Downie
BB: (Tunney) Fragapane, E Downie, B Downie
FX: (Tunney) Tinkler, E Downie, Fragapane
Whelp, Catherine Lyons is inheriting the can't-stay-healthy-for-more-than-a-week curse, and Tyesha, who I really wanted to go for UB and BB, has had it all along, so curtains for both of them. But guess who has surfaced again? Rebecca Tunney! So please let this not curse her to be an invalid, too.
Russia Team
Angelina Melnikova, Maria Kharenkova, Aliya Mustafina, Ksenia Afanasyeva, Maria Paseka
VT: (Kharenkova) Melnikova, Afan, Paseka
UB: (Tutkhalyan) Melnikova, Paseka, Mustafina
BB: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Afan
I'm holding to my prediction that Vika will not be back to compete this season and Aliya will be relegated to two events, thanks to the curse of VRod. Melka has been absolutely on fire so far, so hopefully she can take a spot and run with it. Kharenkova has shown herself to be a surprisingly good option so far, doing well on beam in all phases of the competition and putting up respectable floor scores in two (well, a 14.900 is certainly more than respectable, but also steering rather determinedly toward the ridiculous) at Russian Champs, and she did well at Osijek on beam also.
Brazil Team
Flavia Saraiva, Jade Barbosa, Lorraine Oliveira, Rebeca Andrade, Daniele Hypolito
VT: (Saraiva) Oliveira, Barbosa, Andrade
UB: (Barbosa) Oliveira, Saraiva, Andrade
BB: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
FX: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
Andrade is baaaaack!! This is a really well-balanced team, and they look poised to do amazing things!
Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Russia
GB
Brazil
Canada
Germany
Japan
Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Brazil
Yep. Brazil. I did it. I told you there were predictions in this that verge away from the strictly realistic. They completely rocked the house at the test event, so it seems home crowd support really does carry them. I mean, they got a higher score than China did in qualifications at Glasgow! I'm pulling for them, blindly, some might say. And I have the US and China 1-2 because of course.
All Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Gabby Douglas
3. Angelina Melnikova
Larisa is looking not to be at ideal condition to be earning an Olympic ticket, and I want her to get it so badly, but because NOTHING can go right for Romania at the moment, I'm not holding my breath. Cata is going. I'm working on accepting it. And if Larisa can get the spot, then good surprise for me. But anyway, all that to say: I'm predicting Vika, Aliya, and Larisa are out, leaving things a bit sparse at the top. But once again, Melka has been on fire, so she shall swoop in to claim the open spot!
Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Hong Un Jong
Maria Paseka
Ellie Downie
Giulia Steingruber
Dipa Karmaker
Marcia Videux
Alexa Moreno
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Maria Paseka
Biles has gotten the Cheng! Let the world rejoice! She shall finally reign vault! And Hong Un Jong must place higher than Maria Paseka- please!
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Fan Yilin
Shang Chunsong
Elisabeth Seitz
Sophie Scheder
Becky Downie
Brenna Dowell
Gabby Douglas
Podim:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Shang Chunsong
3. Elisabeth Seitz
Another pretty stacked deck. Bars has been ridiculous this quad. Fan unveiled the 7.0 D-score routine, and, oddly enough, she's the only world champion from last year who I predict will return to defend her title, so the chances are looking pretty promising for her to validate my desires and claim the Olympic title. Aliya needs to add something more to her basic routine to medal again, which I would be 100% behind. Shang NEEDS a medal from a high competition, and fortunately, she's looking to be toward the forefront of this pack. And for the final spot (assuming Aliya sticks with basic), I want it to go to Downie, but she's too inconsistent to be a strong pick.
Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Laurie Hernandez
Sanne Wevers
Pauline Schaefer
Liu Tingting
Flavia Saraiva
Shang Chunsong
Maria Kharenkova
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Laurie Hernandez
3. Flavia Saraiva
Fortunately, with some gymnasts becoming markedly more consistent this year, it looks like this year's beam final might be a significant improvement from last year's. Flava Flav (did I make this up myself? because I was pretty sure it was a common nickname when I started using it but I don't actually see it anywhere...) is an example of one of those who has blessedly improved her consistency. The Americans look good to be consistent as well. And then there's the predictions I refuse to make for reasons....
Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Giulia Steingruber
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Claudia Fragapane
Ellie Downie
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Ksenia Afanasyeva
I had Flavia making the final in January, but the mythical 6.3 routine appears to be nowhere in sight, so I must pass now. This podium pick feels obvious and boring to me, but there's nothing else I really see happening either, so... Can Claudia get a medal? Because I just really want that to happen.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
January Rio Predictions
Teams Qualifying at the Test Event
Romania
Brazil
Australia
Belgium
USA Team
Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, Maggie Nichols, Norah Flatley, Maddie Kocian
VT: (Flatley) Raisman, Nichols, Biles
UB: (Biles) Nichols, Flately, Kocian
BB: (Nichols) Raisman, Biles, Flatley
FX: (Flatley) Nichols, Raisman, Biles
Yeah, I know there are a ton of conspiracy theories about how the Attack Cup competitors are the ones up for second AA and so Raisman is off the team and yada yada yada, but unless another Amanar pops up from a top competitor (or another 6.0+ D score vault, the blogger mentions dutifully) or Mykayla Skinner suddenly becomes impossible to leave home, the Biles-Nichols-Raisman trifecta is definitely going. If the Amanar (and/or the Mykayla) situation does change though, it's a free-for-all and everyone have fun playing Martha because it's going to be one exciting ride. I've had a feeling that at least one new senior would make the team, and Norah's been training some awesome bars skills that could make her a UB-BB specialist that would fit the team perfectly. If the Amanar situation changes, I'm also calling Ragan Smith as a dangerous one- I could totally see her snatching up Aly's spot if the Amanar isn't her golden ticket.
China Team
Yao Jinnan, Shang Chunsong, Wang Yan, Fan Yilin, Liu Tingting
VT: (Shang Chunsong) Yao Jinnan, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan
UB: (Liu Tingting) Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Yao Jinnan
BB: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
FX: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
I definitely think this seems like the most balanced Chinese team in forever. Of course, this relies on Yao Jinnan being back in the AA, so if she's not things will shuffle. But even then, I don't think the 3-person lineups should be in too dire a state. Lots of gymnasts up on three events on this team, but still a good depth pool for them if someone falls apart either mentally or physically between now and Rio, I think.
GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Tyesha Mattis
VT: (Mattis) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
BB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
FX: (Mattis) Tinkler, Fragapane, E Downie
It feels so wrong not putting Catherine Lyons on this team seeing as she's basically been groomed for it the whole quad, but with Amy, Claudia, and Ellie, she'd only compete on bars and beam in the final, and Mattis is easily the better UB-BB specialist. If she just stays in one piece this year...
Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Angelina Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan, Daria Spiridonova
VT: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Afan, Bee Farm
UB: (Melnikova) Bee Farm, Mustafina, Spiridonova
BB: (Spiridonova) Afan, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan
With VRod's naming the 4-person core in 2015, she of course curse it not to happen. Since Vika is Vika and can never stay uninjured for more than one month at a time, I'm predicting she's off, and because VRod is VRod and whenever she opens her mouth nothing good can happen, I'm predicting Aliya's out for the AA. The weak link of this team is floor. Beam is a good and relatively nerve-free lineup for Russia (assuming Afan is doing beam next year), but of course it's Russia and it's beam, so that may end up being a weak spot as well. But in terms of how strong the events are, floor is the weaker.
Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Diana Bulimar, Laura Jurca, Catalina Ponor, Andreea Ciurusniuc
VT: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
UB: (Jurca) Ciurusniuc, Bulimar, Iordache
BB: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
FX: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
I want Izbasa back on the team, but news on her training has been spotty and she wan't put on the Olympic training squad, if I do recall correctly. It is a bit depressing to bring Ciurusniuc as a bars specialist, but Iridon is allergic to the apparatus and she's one of their best options. Bulimar could also go up for Jurca on either beam or floor. Ah, Romania is in a sad state.
Team
Finalists:
USA
Russia
China
Romania
Great Britain
Japan
Canada
Brazil
Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
The USA is the obvious pick and it will be a huge upset if they don't win, so moving on to the more exciting material. Romania looks to be ending their team-medal-at-every-Olympics streak. While I think they're looking not to be in the same extremely dangerous state this year, the rest of the Big Four and some top other nations look to be outstripping them fairly easily again for Rio. I think they'll be somewhere in the 4-6 range. The competition for the silver between China and Russia should be very exciting, with both having good depth years across the events, but I think China will maintain their silver streak due to some Russian shakiness on beam and floor. I also think GB has a good shot at the podium, though they have an uphill climb, and I think the other three might get closer to a medal than we're expecting.
All-Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Maggie Nichols
3. Larisa Iordache
I feel like I'm jinxing Simone not to complete her quad-long reign by this, but who else am I really to predict? Though I think Maggie could very well be on the chopping block for the team depending on who is suddenly wonderful this year, if she goes she is a very strong shot for the podium. Larisa is another obvious pick. Without Aliya or Vika, I don't really see much competition for these three, but if my doomsday predictions don't pan out, they could spice things up nicely.
Vault
Finalists:
Hong Un Jong
Simone Biles
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Ellie Downie
Afan
Marcia Vidaeux
Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Bee Farm
3. Simone Biles
I'm not holding my breath for the Cheng this year (but maybe?) Anyway, I'm thinking Hong Un Jong is going to pull ahead of Bee Farm this year. Not much change from last year.
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Daria Spiridonova
Aliya Mustafina
Maddie Kocian
Fan Yilin
Yao Jinnan
Becky Downie
Sophie Scheder
Simone Biles/Norah Flatley
Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Yao Jinnan
3. Daria Spiridonova
I feel like Yao Jinnan might be the more prudent gold-medal pick, but I want it to be Fan Yilin, so I went with her anyway. I'm expecting it to be China-China-Russia, regardless of the combination of gymnasts. Yeah, I have Simone potentially making it. she was two-pered last year, don't forget!
Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Norah Flatley
Larisa Iordache
Liu Tingting
Shang Chunsong
Aliya Mustafina
Ellie Black
Pauline Schaefer
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Norah Flatley
3. Aliya Mustafina
Again, I'm going with safe options for the podium. I'm expecting beam to be a bit more Big Four-heavy than in Glasgow. I'm again expecting Larisa to have some mishap keeping her from the podium. Simone comes in again with the obvious upper hand, but I think Norah has some potential for a challenge in her as well. I think Pauline Schaefer is going to just squeak in for the final. I was debating putting in Liu Tingting for the bronze, and I'd like to see it happen. And hopefully more gymnasts than not will have routines without major errors? I know, we haven't seen it in a while, but I think this group has it in them. I believe!
Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Afan
Claudia Fragapane
Flavia Saraiva
Larisa Iordache
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Flavia Saraiva
Yeah, I'm predicting Flava-flav for the final (and the podium, apparently!) She's apparently got a 6.3 routine in the works, and she's the kind of gymnast the judges love, so I see her making it in. As for on the podium, I was going to put Raisman there, but I just kind of felt like someone unexpected would medal on floor, and Flavia was the most unexpected of the gymnasts I predicted to final. So I put her there. I think this will be a pretty competitive final- aside from Simone, everyone is at a fairly equal playing field. I also think there are others at about the same level outside this group, so it should be fun to watch the fight to make it in. I'm really looking forward to this one!
Romania
Brazil
Australia
Belgium
USA Team
Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, Maggie Nichols, Norah Flatley, Maddie Kocian
VT: (Flatley) Raisman, Nichols, Biles
UB: (Biles) Nichols, Flately, Kocian
BB: (Nichols) Raisman, Biles, Flatley
FX: (Flatley) Nichols, Raisman, Biles
Yeah, I know there are a ton of conspiracy theories about how the Attack Cup competitors are the ones up for second AA and so Raisman is off the team and yada yada yada, but unless another Amanar pops up from a top competitor (or another 6.0+ D score vault, the blogger mentions dutifully) or Mykayla Skinner suddenly becomes impossible to leave home, the Biles-Nichols-Raisman trifecta is definitely going. If the Amanar (and/or the Mykayla) situation does change though, it's a free-for-all and everyone have fun playing Martha because it's going to be one exciting ride. I've had a feeling that at least one new senior would make the team, and Norah's been training some awesome bars skills that could make her a UB-BB specialist that would fit the team perfectly. If the Amanar situation changes, I'm also calling Ragan Smith as a dangerous one- I could totally see her snatching up Aly's spot if the Amanar isn't her golden ticket.
China Team
Yao Jinnan, Shang Chunsong, Wang Yan, Fan Yilin, Liu Tingting
VT: (Shang Chunsong) Yao Jinnan, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan
UB: (Liu Tingting) Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Yao Jinnan
BB: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
FX: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
I definitely think this seems like the most balanced Chinese team in forever. Of course, this relies on Yao Jinnan being back in the AA, so if she's not things will shuffle. But even then, I don't think the 3-person lineups should be in too dire a state. Lots of gymnasts up on three events on this team, but still a good depth pool for them if someone falls apart either mentally or physically between now and Rio, I think.
GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Tyesha Mattis
VT: (Mattis) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
BB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
FX: (Mattis) Tinkler, Fragapane, E Downie
It feels so wrong not putting Catherine Lyons on this team seeing as she's basically been groomed for it the whole quad, but with Amy, Claudia, and Ellie, she'd only compete on bars and beam in the final, and Mattis is easily the better UB-BB specialist. If she just stays in one piece this year...
Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Angelina Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan, Daria Spiridonova
VT: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Afan, Bee Farm
UB: (Melnikova) Bee Farm, Mustafina, Spiridonova
BB: (Spiridonova) Afan, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan
With VRod's naming the 4-person core in 2015, she of course curse it not to happen. Since Vika is Vika and can never stay uninjured for more than one month at a time, I'm predicting she's off, and because VRod is VRod and whenever she opens her mouth nothing good can happen, I'm predicting Aliya's out for the AA. The weak link of this team is floor. Beam is a good and relatively nerve-free lineup for Russia (assuming Afan is doing beam next year), but of course it's Russia and it's beam, so that may end up being a weak spot as well. But in terms of how strong the events are, floor is the weaker.
Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Diana Bulimar, Laura Jurca, Catalina Ponor, Andreea Ciurusniuc
VT: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
UB: (Jurca) Ciurusniuc, Bulimar, Iordache
BB: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
FX: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
I want Izbasa back on the team, but news on her training has been spotty and she wan't put on the Olympic training squad, if I do recall correctly. It is a bit depressing to bring Ciurusniuc as a bars specialist, but Iridon is allergic to the apparatus and she's one of their best options. Bulimar could also go up for Jurca on either beam or floor. Ah, Romania is in a sad state.
Team
Finalists:
USA
Russia
China
Romania
Great Britain
Japan
Canada
Brazil
Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
The USA is the obvious pick and it will be a huge upset if they don't win, so moving on to the more exciting material. Romania looks to be ending their team-medal-at-every-Olympics streak. While I think they're looking not to be in the same extremely dangerous state this year, the rest of the Big Four and some top other nations look to be outstripping them fairly easily again for Rio. I think they'll be somewhere in the 4-6 range. The competition for the silver between China and Russia should be very exciting, with both having good depth years across the events, but I think China will maintain their silver streak due to some Russian shakiness on beam and floor. I also think GB has a good shot at the podium, though they have an uphill climb, and I think the other three might get closer to a medal than we're expecting.
All-Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Maggie Nichols
3. Larisa Iordache
I feel like I'm jinxing Simone not to complete her quad-long reign by this, but who else am I really to predict? Though I think Maggie could very well be on the chopping block for the team depending on who is suddenly wonderful this year, if she goes she is a very strong shot for the podium. Larisa is another obvious pick. Without Aliya or Vika, I don't really see much competition for these three, but if my doomsday predictions don't pan out, they could spice things up nicely.
Vault
Finalists:
Hong Un Jong
Simone Biles
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Ellie Downie
Afan
Marcia Vidaeux
Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Bee Farm
3. Simone Biles
I'm not holding my breath for the Cheng this year (but maybe?) Anyway, I'm thinking Hong Un Jong is going to pull ahead of Bee Farm this year. Not much change from last year.
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Daria Spiridonova
Aliya Mustafina
Maddie Kocian
Fan Yilin
Yao Jinnan
Becky Downie
Sophie Scheder
Simone Biles/Norah Flatley
Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Yao Jinnan
3. Daria Spiridonova
I feel like Yao Jinnan might be the more prudent gold-medal pick, but I want it to be Fan Yilin, so I went with her anyway. I'm expecting it to be China-China-Russia, regardless of the combination of gymnasts. Yeah, I have Simone potentially making it. she was two-pered last year, don't forget!
Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Norah Flatley
Larisa Iordache
Liu Tingting
Shang Chunsong
Aliya Mustafina
Ellie Black
Pauline Schaefer
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Norah Flatley
3. Aliya Mustafina
Again, I'm going with safe options for the podium. I'm expecting beam to be a bit more Big Four-heavy than in Glasgow. I'm again expecting Larisa to have some mishap keeping her from the podium. Simone comes in again with the obvious upper hand, but I think Norah has some potential for a challenge in her as well. I think Pauline Schaefer is going to just squeak in for the final. I was debating putting in Liu Tingting for the bronze, and I'd like to see it happen. And hopefully more gymnasts than not will have routines without major errors? I know, we haven't seen it in a while, but I think this group has it in them. I believe!
Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Afan
Claudia Fragapane
Flavia Saraiva
Larisa Iordache
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Flavia Saraiva
Yeah, I'm predicting Flava-flav for the final (and the podium, apparently!) She's apparently got a 6.3 routine in the works, and she's the kind of gymnast the judges love, so I see her making it in. As for on the podium, I was going to put Raisman there, but I just kind of felt like someone unexpected would medal on floor, and Flavia was the most unexpected of the gymnasts I predicted to final. So I put her there. I think this will be a pretty competitive final- aside from Simone, everyone is at a fairly equal playing field. I also think there are others at about the same level outside this group, so it should be fun to watch the fight to make it in. I'm really looking forward to this one!
Saturday, October 17, 2015
Worlds Predictions
'Tis the season!!!
Team:
Top 16 (*Finalists):
USA*
China*
Russia*
Romania*
Japan*
Great Britain*
Italy*
Brazil*
Germany
Canada
Australia
Netherlands
France
Mexico
Belgium
South Korea
Podium:
1. USA
2. Russia
3. China
Obviously, the US is going to win. Anyone who doubts that at all is delusional. Valentina would have to Tanya Harding them all for something else to happen. I think Russia's team this year, even without Aliya (honestly, I like this team a lot better without her- not sure why, I'm not a big fan of Vika or Bee Farm and I really do like Aliya), has the most evenly distributed ability of the rest. But if their beam rotation is a bomb, they could open the door. I do think Japan will outscore Romania. Their team average for this year is actually higher than China's, and though that's pretty much due solely to the most outrageous domestic overscoring this year, I'd still LOVE to see them on the podium.
All Around:
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Aly Raisman
Even though her highest AA score is of the season is the third highest of the non-Simone US AAers, I still think she'll get the second spot. If not, just swap her out for whichever American makes it. Even though Simone said Maggie's not the alternate, I'm still accepting her as such until we have an official announcement otherwise, so I think it'll be between Aly and Gabby. With Yao and Aliya out (and Rebeca Andrade), there's pretty much no other competition for the podium. I just feel so gutted doing these predictions right now with no Rebeca to surprise for the podium.
Vault:
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Hong Un Jong
Marcia Videux
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Alexa Moreno
Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Simone Biles
3. Maria Paseka
This one should be really close. Vault was so stagnant and this quad it's suddenly become so exciting! Now that Simone's been sticking Amanars, she really could outdo Hong Un Jong, but I just love her floaty Amanar so whatever. Also, word on the street is that Mykayla beat Simone on vault at camp, so there's that. Bee Farm has cleaned up a fair bit since the last time she made a vault final and added a Cheng, so she's really upped her game. And Marcia and Giulia would both be fabulous- and plausible- medalists. Three fourths of gymnasts in this final could legitimately medal. And that's awesome.
Bars:
Finalists:
Fan Yilin
A second Chinese gymnast
Daria Spiridonova
Vika
Elisabeth Seitz
Sophie Scheder
Maddie Kocian
Yuki Uchiyama
Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Daria Spiridonova
3. Vika
This final is far too small. A 12 or even 16 person final would be much better for exhibiting the top bars talented. No one's really been dominating the top of the field, let alone my choice for the gold medal, but I think these three are the safest bets. I definitely think Spiridoz will leave with a medal. This will be a pretty exclusive final. And I'm so ready for it!
Beam:
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Larisa Iordache
Sakura Yumoto
Ellie Black
Flava Flav
Maria Kharenkova
Shang Chunsong
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Sakura Yumoto
Well, this one's a crap shoot. There have been a lot of stunning one-off performances this year (PAULINE SCHAEFER) that I don't expect to be repeated at Worlds. Alas. I've picked Shang for gold the last two years and just given up at this point. I've also given up on predicting Larisa will stay on. Or Maria. I made my pick because I trust those three not to fall the most. Literally everyone else I'm expecting to. Maybe the trick is just to expect them to fall? Flava Flav always makes it into the final, she just falls once she gets there. Ellie is the only one I didn't pick for the podium who I'll hold out hope for staying on. And then if anyone else doesn't fall, it'll be a pleasant surprise.
Floor:
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Larisa Iordache
Afan
Sae Miyakawa
Claudia Fragapane
Erika Fasana
Giulia Steingruber
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Larisa Iordache
Yet another floor title to Simone. A fall is literally the only mistake that could keep her from this one. Aly is back and better than ever, and a hit routine should clinch a medal for her. Larisa is great as always, but I think the other two have an edge on her. Afan either wins or doesn't medal, so she's off the podium. If Sae Miyakawa busts out the best she's got, she's the only other one who can challenge, methinks. But the other three are awesome. So it should be an enjoyable enough final even if it isn't as competitive as vault of bars.
Team:
Top 16 (*Finalists):
USA*
China*
Russia*
Romania*
Japan*
Great Britain*
Italy*
Brazil*
Germany
Canada
Australia
Netherlands
France
Mexico
Belgium
South Korea
Podium:
1. USA
2. Russia
3. China
Obviously, the US is going to win. Anyone who doubts that at all is delusional. Valentina would have to Tanya Harding them all for something else to happen. I think Russia's team this year, even without Aliya (honestly, I like this team a lot better without her- not sure why, I'm not a big fan of Vika or Bee Farm and I really do like Aliya), has the most evenly distributed ability of the rest. But if their beam rotation is a bomb, they could open the door. I do think Japan will outscore Romania. Their team average for this year is actually higher than China's, and though that's pretty much due solely to the most outrageous domestic overscoring this year, I'd still LOVE to see them on the podium.
All Around:
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Aly Raisman
Even though her highest AA score is of the season is the third highest of the non-Simone US AAers, I still think she'll get the second spot. If not, just swap her out for whichever American makes it. Even though Simone said Maggie's not the alternate, I'm still accepting her as such until we have an official announcement otherwise, so I think it'll be between Aly and Gabby. With Yao and Aliya out (and Rebeca Andrade), there's pretty much no other competition for the podium. I just feel so gutted doing these predictions right now with no Rebeca to surprise for the podium.
Vault:
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Hong Un Jong
Marcia Videux
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Alexa Moreno
Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Simone Biles
3. Maria Paseka
This one should be really close. Vault was so stagnant and this quad it's suddenly become so exciting! Now that Simone's been sticking Amanars, she really could outdo Hong Un Jong, but I just love her floaty Amanar so whatever. Also, word on the street is that Mykayla beat Simone on vault at camp, so there's that. Bee Farm has cleaned up a fair bit since the last time she made a vault final and added a Cheng, so she's really upped her game. And Marcia and Giulia would both be fabulous- and plausible- medalists. Three fourths of gymnasts in this final could legitimately medal. And that's awesome.
Bars:
Finalists:
Fan Yilin
A second Chinese gymnast
Daria Spiridonova
Vika
Elisabeth Seitz
Sophie Scheder
Maddie Kocian
Yuki Uchiyama
Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Daria Spiridonova
3. Vika
This final is far too small. A 12 or even 16 person final would be much better for exhibiting the top bars talented. No one's really been dominating the top of the field, let alone my choice for the gold medal, but I think these three are the safest bets. I definitely think Spiridoz will leave with a medal. This will be a pretty exclusive final. And I'm so ready for it!
Beam:
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Larisa Iordache
Sakura Yumoto
Ellie Black
Flava Flav
Maria Kharenkova
Shang Chunsong
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Sakura Yumoto
Well, this one's a crap shoot. There have been a lot of stunning one-off performances this year (PAULINE SCHAEFER) that I don't expect to be repeated at Worlds. Alas. I've picked Shang for gold the last two years and just given up at this point. I've also given up on predicting Larisa will stay on. Or Maria. I made my pick because I trust those three not to fall the most. Literally everyone else I'm expecting to. Maybe the trick is just to expect them to fall? Flava Flav always makes it into the final, she just falls once she gets there. Ellie is the only one I didn't pick for the podium who I'll hold out hope for staying on. And then if anyone else doesn't fall, it'll be a pleasant surprise.
Floor:
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Larisa Iordache
Afan
Sae Miyakawa
Claudia Fragapane
Erika Fasana
Giulia Steingruber
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Larisa Iordache
Yet another floor title to Simone. A fall is literally the only mistake that could keep her from this one. Aly is back and better than ever, and a hit routine should clinch a medal for her. Larisa is great as always, but I think the other two have an edge on her. Afan either wins or doesn't medal, so she's off the podium. If Sae Miyakawa busts out the best she's got, she's the only other one who can challenge, methinks. But the other three are awesome. So it should be an enjoyable enough final even if it isn't as competitive as vault of bars.
Monday, August 24, 2015
Floor Music I Want to See: Russia
Of course, I want these gymnasts to use this music after the Rods have been kicked out once and for all and the gymnasts are conditioned to a point where they can actually perform strongly artistic routines again.
Aliya Mustafina- "Montagues and Capulets"
Aliya is a diva on the floor (in an "every person in this stadium needs to be looking at me right now because I am killing it" kind of way), and this music is big and dramatic enough that she could own the floor with it. Also, as it is classical, it combines the drama with "Russian tradition" and would be a bit more regal for her, methinks.
Viktoria Komova- "Avrora" (Anna Bessonova's 2007-2008 Hoop Music)
I've honestly never considered any of Vika's floor routines highly artistic (except for the AA performance of her 2012 one). I believe that is because the Russian choreographers decided "Swan Lake Breakdown didn't work, so since classic style isn't her, we'll give her crowd-pleasing routines!" I really think Vika has a lot of untapped artistic potential in a darker and more emotional style. Of course, I have no solid evidence to base this on, so I could be totally wrong. It's just a feeling. I will fully admit that this could be a disaster, but I think it really would be haunting and beautiful and a performance for the ages.
Maria Kharenkova- "Blues for Klook"
I have a confession to make and you all may judge me for this. I don't really get the hype over Mitova's floor to this music, other than it's sheer difference from the rest of the routines of the time. Of course, Russia would never (and nor would any other major program besides the US, who used two recycled pieces in 2014 AND has had multiple gymnasts use "Blues") use music from a routine so venerated. Too much of a risk artistically. I love Maria's routine from 2012 and think routines with more passion and tension are better suited to her than the purely elegant, purely graceful routines she's had this quad. This would really give her opportunity to stretch her wings artistically and get back to her artistic roots from 2012, but with the maturity she has acquired since then. I also would love to see Afan with this music.
Alla Sosnitskaya- "Fever"
This one would never be allowed either, since Cata JUST used it. For shame. I mentioned in my Nanning floor analysis series that she displayed a slinkyness in the slow part of her "Pretty Woman" routine I think Russia should capitalize on. The jazz tones and prominent bass would give her plenty of room to play with that and she could finally have her chance to sparkle on floor. If not "Fever", at least "Why Don't You Do Right?" Also, I want Afan to use one of these ones. Afan just needs a season where she has a different floor routine every time she competes so she use all the music she should.
Anastasia Grishina- "The Promise" from The Secret Garden or "Once Upon a December"
Grishy is coming back and slaying, okay? These would both be great routines for Grishy's light and pretty style. And "Once Upon a December" is a waltz, which Grishy has a corner on. "The Promise" would be the softer, more lyrical route, while "Once Upon a December" would be grander. And come on, how awesome would it be for Grishy to use music from Anastasia?
Afan- Postmodern Jukebox's cover of "Seven Nation Army"
In case you can't tell by this point, I want Afan to do something bluesy. I think she's got just the right mix of maturity, dancing style, and slightly sardonic expression to make it awesome. This cover is the perfect moodiness for Afan to get in some of her awesome original choreography (BRING BACK THE LEG CHOREO FROM 2012). And come on, Afan doing "Seven Nation Army"? Awesome.
Literally Anyone- "Padam, Padam" (Zhenya's 2009 Ribbon Music)
Any Russian should use this. ANY OF THEM. And all of them. But honestly, somehow this music would be absolutely perfect for every single style of the Russian gamut. Aliya could totally get all diva/queen with it and incorporate a few death glares while she's at it. For Vika, she could stay all light and ballerina and I-don't-have-body-fat-ly while still being able to play with more than she's been given in the past. This music is definitely more in the way of Masha's 2012 routine than we've seen recently and she could bring back some of the old cheekiness with it. Alla could totally throw in a bunch of playful slinkyness with it and light up an arena. It's light and frothy for Grishy to keep her super pretty style but she could also be playful with it. And Afan! Lots of leg choreo-like opportunities, as well as opportunities for that wry expression from her 2011-2012 days.
This one would never be allowed either, since Cata JUST used it. For shame. I mentioned in my Nanning floor analysis series that she displayed a slinkyness in the slow part of her "Pretty Woman" routine I think Russia should capitalize on. The jazz tones and prominent bass would give her plenty of room to play with that and she could finally have her chance to sparkle on floor. If not "Fever", at least "Why Don't You Do Right?" Also, I want Afan to use one of these ones. Afan just needs a season where she has a different floor routine every time she competes so she use all the music she should.
Anastasia Grishina- "The Promise" from The Secret Garden or "Once Upon a December"
Grishy is coming back and slaying, okay? These would both be great routines for Grishy's light and pretty style. And "Once Upon a December" is a waltz, which Grishy has a corner on. "The Promise" would be the softer, more lyrical route, while "Once Upon a December" would be grander. And come on, how awesome would it be for Grishy to use music from Anastasia?
Afan- Postmodern Jukebox's cover of "Seven Nation Army"
In case you can't tell by this point, I want Afan to do something bluesy. I think she's got just the right mix of maturity, dancing style, and slightly sardonic expression to make it awesome. This cover is the perfect moodiness for Afan to get in some of her awesome original choreography (BRING BACK THE LEG CHOREO FROM 2012). And come on, Afan doing "Seven Nation Army"? Awesome.
Literally Anyone- "Padam, Padam" (Zhenya's 2009 Ribbon Music)
Any Russian should use this. ANY OF THEM. And all of them. But honestly, somehow this music would be absolutely perfect for every single style of the Russian gamut. Aliya could totally get all diva/queen with it and incorporate a few death glares while she's at it. For Vika, she could stay all light and ballerina and I-don't-have-body-fat-ly while still being able to play with more than she's been given in the past. This music is definitely more in the way of Masha's 2012 routine than we've seen recently and she could bring back some of the old cheekiness with it. Alla could totally throw in a bunch of playful slinkyness with it and light up an arena. It's light and frothy for Grishy to keep her super pretty style but she could also be playful with it. And Afan! Lots of leg choreo-like opportunities, as well as opportunities for that wry expression from her 2011-2012 days.
Saturday, March 14, 2015
Simone Attack, Russian Championships, and Team Announcements
I've been gone for a week and a half, so I missed the American Cup (or Simone Attack, as I am rechristening it) and have only just been able to catch up with it and the videos from Russian Championships.
Simone Attack
I couldn't help but read the #ATTAC hashtag as "attack," and so, with Simone dominating (62.299!?!), I shall now officially be calling the 2015 American Cup "Simone Attack".
Simone is Not Human Yeah, we all already knew that and it was made official at Classics last year, but with a 62.299 and a SIXTEEN on floor, it needs reiterating. Plus, I was really impressed at Simone Attack by how good her bars are her technique on them is despite not being natural swinger.
JLo Breaking My Heart And everyone's. Oh, why did she fall on that layout? Her beam was so good otherwise!! And those errors on floor! Speaking of floor, I think I like last year's better, but a lovely routine still.
Fasana Is Awesome I love that floor. I really do. It's just so different and... awesome. No other word for it, really. But yeah, such a great achievement for her to come in third and beat Ferrari! She really is becoming a favorite of mine.
Fragapane's New Floor Yeah, not her best outing, she had a bad day, whatever, it happens. What we REALLY need to talk about is that floor! Very cutting-edge, and I think it actually has a greater quantity of choreography than last year's had. I think I might end up liking it better than her old one, but I'm going to hold off decision until she's competing on a day where she's got a bigger goal than "don't die". Oh, and that leotard! Seriously can't figure out what's going on there. Needed about half the design it had to be removed.
The Boys YESSS! Oleg won!!! We need to appreciate how Tim Daggett was fangirling over him too. I want Supreme Overlord Kohei to win every AA title until he retires unless the one to dethrone him is Oleg. Then I'm down.
Russian Championships
Afan's Floor Yes, no more Christina Aguilera howling for the music! Dramatic improvement over the one from DTB/Voronin for that reason alone. *Sigh* But the inevitable Rod-era choreography. It's nice, but so, so underwhelming! CONDITION YOUR ATHLETES!!!
Vika's Jager Can she just go ahead and do a pike now? Has it ever actually been laid out? And she definitely shouldn't be getting credit for it anymore.
Maria Winning AA Suffice it to say I didn't expect that to happen... Seda needs to up her game. The question is how she will fare at Euros with only an FTY. And what her beam scores will look like... Not too steady at Championships.
Daria is the New Russian Bars Queen At least, she's the front runner for now. We can't say with certainty until Aliya is back with a coach. But she's definitely outdone Vika. Monster routines, and she kills them! So pretty!
Russian Euros Team
So, Kharenkova, Afan, and Daria are going, with the last spot between Soz, Seda, Vika, and Bee Farm. Soz is the provisional fourth, and I really think she's the most logical. I don't think Bee Farm makes any sense to bring. Soz beat her on vault by a big margin and has potential in the AA and on floor as opposed to Bee Farm who came in third on bars, but really isn't good enough to justify being brought for that event. Seda unfortunately didn't show much at Championships to make a case for herself, but taking her could be a good investment for Worlds. Her difficulty and consistency both need improvement, though. Vika also doesn't have the difficulty or the consistency to really justify being brought as a specialist. She won't be getting 15.000 for a routine like that internationally. to me, Soz is really the only logical choice.
US Jesolo Team
This is actually looking to be an incredibly interesting team. First of all, of course we have Balie's senior debut. What a debut! However, that's the least of my cares on this team. Aly and Gabby are making their comebacks! I can't wait to see what these two have up their sleeves! What we've seen in their USAG videos has been very interesting, and I really want to see how they fare in competition again. Gabby's potential as an all arounder for the US will be especially of note. And then there's the inclusion of Emily Schild. We know almost nothing about her, having been unable to compete domestically the last two years, but there must have been something Martha saw. I'm very intrigued by what we'll see from her.
Simone Attack
I couldn't help but read the #ATTAC hashtag as "attack," and so, with Simone dominating (62.299!?!), I shall now officially be calling the 2015 American Cup "Simone Attack".
Simone is Not Human Yeah, we all already knew that and it was made official at Classics last year, but with a 62.299 and a SIXTEEN on floor, it needs reiterating. Plus, I was really impressed at Simone Attack by how good her bars are her technique on them is despite not being natural swinger.
JLo Breaking My Heart And everyone's. Oh, why did she fall on that layout? Her beam was so good otherwise!! And those errors on floor! Speaking of floor, I think I like last year's better, but a lovely routine still.
Fasana Is Awesome I love that floor. I really do. It's just so different and... awesome. No other word for it, really. But yeah, such a great achievement for her to come in third and beat Ferrari! She really is becoming a favorite of mine.
Fragapane's New Floor Yeah, not her best outing, she had a bad day, whatever, it happens. What we REALLY need to talk about is that floor! Very cutting-edge, and I think it actually has a greater quantity of choreography than last year's had. I think I might end up liking it better than her old one, but I'm going to hold off decision until she's competing on a day where she's got a bigger goal than "don't die". Oh, and that leotard! Seriously can't figure out what's going on there. Needed about half the design it had to be removed.
The Boys YESSS! Oleg won!!! We need to appreciate how Tim Daggett was fangirling over him too. I want Supreme Overlord Kohei to win every AA title until he retires unless the one to dethrone him is Oleg. Then I'm down.
Russian Championships
Afan's Floor Yes, no more Christina Aguilera howling for the music! Dramatic improvement over the one from DTB/Voronin for that reason alone. *Sigh* But the inevitable Rod-era choreography. It's nice, but so, so underwhelming! CONDITION YOUR ATHLETES!!!
Vika's Jager Can she just go ahead and do a pike now? Has it ever actually been laid out? And she definitely shouldn't be getting credit for it anymore.
Maria Winning AA Suffice it to say I didn't expect that to happen... Seda needs to up her game. The question is how she will fare at Euros with only an FTY. And what her beam scores will look like... Not too steady at Championships.
Daria is the New Russian Bars Queen At least, she's the front runner for now. We can't say with certainty until Aliya is back with a coach. But she's definitely outdone Vika. Monster routines, and she kills them! So pretty!
Russian Euros Team
So, Kharenkova, Afan, and Daria are going, with the last spot between Soz, Seda, Vika, and Bee Farm. Soz is the provisional fourth, and I really think she's the most logical. I don't think Bee Farm makes any sense to bring. Soz beat her on vault by a big margin and has potential in the AA and on floor as opposed to Bee Farm who came in third on bars, but really isn't good enough to justify being brought for that event. Seda unfortunately didn't show much at Championships to make a case for herself, but taking her could be a good investment for Worlds. Her difficulty and consistency both need improvement, though. Vika also doesn't have the difficulty or the consistency to really justify being brought as a specialist. She won't be getting 15.000 for a routine like that internationally. to me, Soz is really the only logical choice.
US Jesolo Team
This is actually looking to be an incredibly interesting team. First of all, of course we have Balie's senior debut. What a debut! However, that's the least of my cares on this team. Aly and Gabby are making their comebacks! I can't wait to see what these two have up their sleeves! What we've seen in their USAG videos has been very interesting, and I really want to see how they fare in competition again. Gabby's potential as an all arounder for the US will be especially of note. And then there's the inclusion of Emily Schild. We know almost nothing about her, having been unable to compete domestically the last two years, but there must have been something Martha saw. I'm very intrigued by what we'll see from her.
Monday, January 19, 2015
Let's Talk About the New Seniors
Ahh, we finally get the treasure-trove of amazing gymnasts on the senior level we've been promised since the beginning of the quad! The Gymternet has compiled and exhaustive list of all the gymnasts who turn senior this year, and oh so many exciting names!
China: Deng Yalan, Wang Yan
Most Exciting New Senior: Wang Yan- Strong on vault, can tumble on floor, and a solid, high-difficulty beam set. Wang Yan is just what the doctor ordered for China!
The Others?: Deng Yalan can vault, too, and also has potential on floor! China can breathe now!
Romania: Andreea Iridon, Laura Jurca
Most Exciting New Senior: Laura Jurca- A good all arounder, similar to Iordache in strengths, the CUTEST segue into low beam choreography, but the YOG judges hammered her in E.
The Others?: Iridon is exciting because BARS!! BARS BARS BARS!! She can do them, and Romania needs that desperately.
Russia: Maria Bondareva, Anastasiia Dmitrieva, Seda Tutkhalyan, Daria Mikhailova
Most Exciting New Senior: Seda Tutkhalyan- Won the YOG all around and bars, has a killer beam set (LAYOUT FULL!), but also super inconsistent.
The Others?: Bondareva and Dmitrieva were supposed to be Russia's next big things, but both have stagnated. Bondareva might still have some strong gymnastics in her, but it doesn't look highly likely. Mikhailova might end up being the big one from the rest of this group, which is a big surprise. She's not super high-scoring, but her floor is great to watch and she is a fighter on beam, which Russia needs more of.
The USA: Nia Dennis, Bailie Key, Alexis Vasquez, Lauren Navarro
Most Exciting New Senior: Bailie Key- Obviously
The Others?: Nia Dennis has a ton of potential everywhere and could be a world-class all arounder. She garners a ton of comparisons to Gabby, and the pretty much total lack of racism claims attests to the accuracy of the comparison. But she's seriously inconsistent and didn't look too polished last year. She wasn't at full health, but still... Alexis Vasquez also wasn't at 100% last year, but I just don't know whether I see her being a top senior elite. She could go if we desperately needed a third beam, though. Catherine B of Beautiful Gymnastics mentioned Lauren when discussing gymnasts who could surprise, and I see her point. She had a great beam day 2 of P&Gs last year... I'm also going to be keeping my eye on Vanasia Bradley (lots of power and potential, but I don't think her coaching's doing her a ton of favors...) and Marissa Oakley (PRETTY!! and a double double bars dismount).
Great Britain: Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Tyesha Mattis, Rhyannon Jones
Most Exciting New Senior: Ellie Downie- She got the bronze all around at Jr. Euros, and won 4 medals at YOG. Great vault, and not too shabby on the other events.
The Others?: Tinkler I love on floor! She's powerful, but not too bad all around. Mattis wasn't at full strength last year, but at the 2013 EYOF, she had a double double on floor. Jones has really nice lines and contributed to the Jr. Euros silver, but I don't expect her to make too big a splash at the senior level. Downie, Tinkler, and Mattis are all really powerful, and I expect to see Amanars from this crew.
Brazil: Rebecca Andrade, Flavia Saraiva
Most Exciting New Senior: Rebecca Andrade- Incredibly powerful, she's had a sky-scraping Amanar she doesn't always compete, sadly. It's strangely inconsistent for her. Her floor has a ton of potential, and I'm sure she has a lot more than she's shown. Bars and beam aren't as strong, but they're way better than they were.
The Others?: Flava-flav! I don't know if that's a gymternet nickname or I just made it up myself, but that's what I call her. She's super charming and her gymnastics are beautiful!
Germany: Antonia Alicke, Kim Janas
Most Exciting New Senior: Kim Janas- If she's back. She was great in 2013, but injured for 2014. She could really made an all around splash for Germany if she's back with strong routines.
The Others?: Alicke has low difficulty, especially on vault where she had a front tuck 1/2. She could be useful on bars, beam, and floor, though.
Other Exciting New Seniors:
Sydney Townsend (CAN)- Has a DTY and a great, Rio-flavor floor!
Iosra Abdelaziz (ITA)- BARS!! Similar to Iridon.
Sae Miyakawa (JPN)- GORGEOUS tumbling, and a DLO final pass!! Nice vaulting, too.
Millie Williamson (NZL)- She won't be winning anything. But if you don't like the Kiwis I don't like you.
Country With the Most Exciting New Seniors: USA
Country With the New Seniors I'm Most Excited About: Brazil
Country With the New Seniors I'm Second Most Excited About: Great Britain
Most Exciting New Senior: Bailie Key
New Senior I'm Most Excited About: Rebecca Andrade
New Senior I'm Second Most Excited About: Tie between Amy Tinkler and Flava Flav
Biggest Question Mark: Kim Janas
Best Vault: Wang Yan
Rebecca should have it with her Amanar, but it's too inconsistent. Wang Yan also has two high-difficulty vaults. I'm expecting plenty of Amanars from this crop.
Best Bars: Nia Dennis
Bars isn't a super great event with the new seniors, and Nia, Seda, and Andreea are the only ones who are really good on them. Nia is the only one to have a really dynamic routine. I'm a bit worried about the DLO dismount, though. I'd like to see her do a double arabian instead.
Best Beam: Bailie Key
This should by rights be Seda's with her insane routine, but she's SO INCONSISTENT. Bailie has strong difficulty and fabulous execution, and she is so steady!! Wang Yan is also awesome on beam, I expect them to be strong in the Worlds final.
Best Floor: Bailie Key
Nia Dennis has higher scoring potential, but is less consistent. Bailie has a clever routine which gives her a good D score, she's gotten very artistic since changing floor routines, and, as always, her execution is stellar. This group have a lot of gymnasts who are lovely to watch on floor but don't have great difficulty. Rebecca Andrade has the potential, but she hasn't shown it yet. I believe she can surpass the rest of the new seniors, but she still needs to put the routine together to do so.
China: Deng Yalan, Wang Yan
Most Exciting New Senior: Wang Yan- Strong on vault, can tumble on floor, and a solid, high-difficulty beam set. Wang Yan is just what the doctor ordered for China!
The Others?: Deng Yalan can vault, too, and also has potential on floor! China can breathe now!
Romania: Andreea Iridon, Laura Jurca
Most Exciting New Senior: Laura Jurca- A good all arounder, similar to Iordache in strengths, the CUTEST segue into low beam choreography, but the YOG judges hammered her in E.
The Others?: Iridon is exciting because BARS!! BARS BARS BARS!! She can do them, and Romania needs that desperately.
Russia: Maria Bondareva, Anastasiia Dmitrieva, Seda Tutkhalyan, Daria Mikhailova
Most Exciting New Senior: Seda Tutkhalyan- Won the YOG all around and bars, has a killer beam set (LAYOUT FULL!), but also super inconsistent.
The Others?: Bondareva and Dmitrieva were supposed to be Russia's next big things, but both have stagnated. Bondareva might still have some strong gymnastics in her, but it doesn't look highly likely. Mikhailova might end up being the big one from the rest of this group, which is a big surprise. She's not super high-scoring, but her floor is great to watch and she is a fighter on beam, which Russia needs more of.
The USA: Nia Dennis, Bailie Key, Alexis Vasquez, Lauren Navarro
Most Exciting New Senior: Bailie Key- Obviously
The Others?: Nia Dennis has a ton of potential everywhere and could be a world-class all arounder. She garners a ton of comparisons to Gabby, and the pretty much total lack of racism claims attests to the accuracy of the comparison. But she's seriously inconsistent and didn't look too polished last year. She wasn't at full health, but still... Alexis Vasquez also wasn't at 100% last year, but I just don't know whether I see her being a top senior elite. She could go if we desperately needed a third beam, though. Catherine B of Beautiful Gymnastics mentioned Lauren when discussing gymnasts who could surprise, and I see her point. She had a great beam day 2 of P&Gs last year... I'm also going to be keeping my eye on Vanasia Bradley (lots of power and potential, but I don't think her coaching's doing her a ton of favors...) and Marissa Oakley (PRETTY!! and a double double bars dismount).
Great Britain: Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Tyesha Mattis, Rhyannon Jones
Most Exciting New Senior: Ellie Downie- She got the bronze all around at Jr. Euros, and won 4 medals at YOG. Great vault, and not too shabby on the other events.
The Others?: Tinkler I love on floor! She's powerful, but not too bad all around. Mattis wasn't at full strength last year, but at the 2013 EYOF, she had a double double on floor. Jones has really nice lines and contributed to the Jr. Euros silver, but I don't expect her to make too big a splash at the senior level. Downie, Tinkler, and Mattis are all really powerful, and I expect to see Amanars from this crew.
Brazil: Rebecca Andrade, Flavia Saraiva
Most Exciting New Senior: Rebecca Andrade- Incredibly powerful, she's had a sky-scraping Amanar she doesn't always compete, sadly. It's strangely inconsistent for her. Her floor has a ton of potential, and I'm sure she has a lot more than she's shown. Bars and beam aren't as strong, but they're way better than they were.
The Others?: Flava-flav! I don't know if that's a gymternet nickname or I just made it up myself, but that's what I call her. She's super charming and her gymnastics are beautiful!
Germany: Antonia Alicke, Kim Janas
Most Exciting New Senior: Kim Janas- If she's back. She was great in 2013, but injured for 2014. She could really made an all around splash for Germany if she's back with strong routines.
The Others?: Alicke has low difficulty, especially on vault where she had a front tuck 1/2. She could be useful on bars, beam, and floor, though.
Other Exciting New Seniors:
Sydney Townsend (CAN)- Has a DTY and a great, Rio-flavor floor!
Iosra Abdelaziz (ITA)- BARS!! Similar to Iridon.
Sae Miyakawa (JPN)- GORGEOUS tumbling, and a DLO final pass!! Nice vaulting, too.
Millie Williamson (NZL)- She won't be winning anything. But if you don't like the Kiwis I don't like you.
Country With the Most Exciting New Seniors: USA
Country With the New Seniors I'm Most Excited About: Brazil
Country With the New Seniors I'm Second Most Excited About: Great Britain
Most Exciting New Senior: Bailie Key
New Senior I'm Most Excited About: Rebecca Andrade
New Senior I'm Second Most Excited About: Tie between Amy Tinkler and Flava Flav
Biggest Question Mark: Kim Janas
Best Vault: Wang Yan
Rebecca should have it with her Amanar, but it's too inconsistent. Wang Yan also has two high-difficulty vaults. I'm expecting plenty of Amanars from this crop.
Best Bars: Nia Dennis
Bars isn't a super great event with the new seniors, and Nia, Seda, and Andreea are the only ones who are really good on them. Nia is the only one to have a really dynamic routine. I'm a bit worried about the DLO dismount, though. I'd like to see her do a double arabian instead.
Best Beam: Bailie Key
This should by rights be Seda's with her insane routine, but she's SO INCONSISTENT. Bailie has strong difficulty and fabulous execution, and she is so steady!! Wang Yan is also awesome on beam, I expect them to be strong in the Worlds final.
Best Floor: Bailie Key
Nia Dennis has higher scoring potential, but is less consistent. Bailie has a clever routine which gives her a good D score, she's gotten very artistic since changing floor routines, and, as always, her execution is stellar. This group have a lot of gymnasts who are lovely to watch on floor but don't have great difficulty. Rebecca Andrade has the potential, but she hasn't shown it yet. I believe she can surpass the rest of the new seniors, but she still needs to put the routine together to do so.
Thursday, January 1, 2015
2015 Worlds Predictions
So, for the first day of the year, I decided to do some crazy early Worlds predictions, just for fun.
USA Team
Simone Biles, Bailie Key, Nia Dennis, Kyla Ross, Mykayla Skinner, Ashton Locklear/Gabby Douglas
VT: Key/Dennis, Skinner, Biles
UB: Ross, Dennis, Locklear/Douglas
BB: Ross, Biles, Key
FX: Key, Dennis, Biles
The US literally has over 50 combinations of gymnasts expected to compete this year which could stroll away with the gold. Even if Simone pulls and Ebee-style "See you at UCLA, losers" retirement this year, the US would still be the top pick for gold. Raisman could be brought for BB/FX over a bars specialist. We've seen Locklear working on some things in IG which could put her out of one-event territory. Basically, at this point, the possibilities are endless. I've taken the plunge with the 'kaylas. I never thought I'd put My on a team over Mc, but if she makes a quarter of the improvement she made last year this year, she should take the spot.
China Team
Yao Jinnan, Wang Yan, Shang Chunson, Huang Huidan, two of Tan Jiaxin, Deng Yalan, and Bai Yawen
VT: Tan, Deng, Wang (Yao goes up first if Tan and Deng aren't both on the team)
UB: Tan/Shang, Huang, Yao
BB: any combination of gymnasts not including Deng or Tan
FX: Yao/Tan, Shang, Wang
I know a lot of people don't like Shang/don't see her on another team, but she can tumble, so she has a spot on the team. If Tan does in fact get that Amanar, she'll definitely take one of those last two spots. Wang Yan will be like a ray of sunshine for China on their trouble events. There's no way she's not on the team.
Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Seda Tutkhalyan, Maria Kharenkova, Ksenia Afanasyeva, Alla Sosnitskaya, Viktoria Komova
VT: Mustafina, Afanasyeva, Sosnitskaya
UB: Tutkhalyan, Mustafina, Komova
BB: Tutkhalyan/Komova, Mustafina, Kharenkova
FX: Mustafina/Tutkhalyan, Sosnitskaya, Afanasyeva
This is probably the hardest team for me to predict just because everyone is as likely to be in Germany having surgery as at Round Lake. Aside from Aliya, who probably would have competed through that ACL tear if she could have, I'm pretty confident in Tutkhalyan, Kharenkova, and Sosnitskaya to still be in one piece for Glasgow. Afan just competed a 6.0 difficulty at Voronin, and considering Valentina's enthusiasm to put her on the Nanning team, I expect she'll be in Glasgow. Komova I don't know about, but she's actually put together four routines and hasn't tripped over any mats lately, so I'll go with her. That first beam spot is still kind of scary, and Afan could potentially go up if she is consistently hitting a beam routine this year. I'd love to see Grishina come back and take one of the spots.
Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Laura Jurca, Andreea Iridon, Alina Stanila, Andreea Munteanu, Diana Bulimar
VT: Stanila, Jurca, Iordache
UB: Bulimar, Iridon, Iordache
BB: any combination of gymnasts not including Stanila
FX: Bulimar, Jurca, Iordache
Didi needs to be in one piece for Glasgow. She's had the worst luck! She really needs to be on the team for bars. With her they have a respectable lineup. Without her, it could be a tense rotation. Iridon and the newly amazing Iordache should be a strong back end, though, regardless of the first spot, but they're podium-worthy with Didi's bars. I mean, a mediocre first routine would still keep them podium-worthy, but they'd be at the top of the silver-and-bronze pack with Didi.
Italy Team
Vanessa Ferrari, Erika Fasana, Iosra Abdelaziz, Elisa Meneghini, Carlotta Ferlito, Martina Rizzelli
VT: Rizzelli, Ferrari, Fasana
UB: Fasana, Ferrari, Abdelaziz
BB: Meneghini, Ferlito, Ferrari
FX: Meneghini/Ferlito, Fasana, Ferrari
Eh, it's a lineup. Putting Fasana on bars is not ideal, to say the least. But hey, that's the point of this, to just put something together and laugh come October.
Great Britain Team
Ellie Downie, Becky Downie, Rebecca Tunney, Gabby Jupp, Claudia Fragapane, Amy Tinkler/Tyesha Mattis
VT: Tunney, Tinkler/Mattis, E Downie
UB: E Downie, Tunney, B Downie
BB: E Downie, Jupp, B Downie
FX: E Downie, Tinkler/Mattis, Fragapane
Team GB has a lot of potential for this year. If they can keep beam under control, they should be in the silver-and-bronze pack with the rest of the Big Four. The Downies should be the cornerstones of this team. Tunney and another new senior should be throwing down strong routines on their best events. Jupp is going to fill out the beam rotation and help keep it from being too tense. Fragapane isn't entirely necessary, but I don't see her being left home.
Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Romania
Russia
Italy
Great Britain
Japan
Germany
Podium:
1. USA
2. Romania
3. China
The USA is obvious for the gold. If Didi can break the curse and actually make Worlds this year (and no one else takes her place in being injured), I think they have the best team of the rest of the world. No real trouble spots. Wang Yan's inclusion alone will greatly improve China. I think Great Britain could be close behind them, but I'll give the edge to China now.
All Around
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Bailie Key
Of course, now that Aliya actually has a coach, she could be on here as well. But at this moment, Larisa and Bailie outstrip her. Simone will win if she goes clean, as always, and with a Moors and possibly a TTY, who knows what will happen. I really want Rebecca Andrade on this podium. The all around should be fierce this year.
Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Hong Un Jong
Wang Yan
Giulia Steingruber
Oksana Chusovitina
Yessenia Ferrera
Deng Yalan/ Alla Sosnitskaya
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Mykayla Skinner
I really don't know about bronze. Skinner would seem the best choice, but if Steingruber can ger her DTY back, she'll be a strong challenge, and Yessenia Ferrera and Wang Yan can both be expected to put up a strong challenge. This should definitely be the best vault final in a long time.
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Yao Jinnan
Huang Huidan
Viktoria Komova
Aliya Mustafina
Becky Downie
Rebecca Tunney
Ashton Locklear/Gabby Douglas
Lisa Katharina Hill
Podium:
1. Yao Jinnan
2. Viktoria Komova
3. Huang Huidan
This should be another super strong bars final. I expect both the Chinese to medal again. Komova might need some upgrades for that silver, but this is her event. I'm not too concerned.
Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Bailie Key
Larisa Iordache
Maria Kharenkova
Seda Tutkhalyan/Aliya Mustafina
Wang Yan
Shang Chunsong/Bai Yawen
Andreea Munteanu
Podium:
1. Maria Kharenkova
2. Bailie Key
3. Larisa Iordache
I'm predicting Larisa will have a fairly large wobble but not fall this year. This has the potential to be a great match-up, but there is also some splat potential. If Seda can somehow do some witchcraft to hit in both qualifications and finals, she should be on the podium. But that would probably require some witchcraft. Bailie Key should be gorgeous and steady as always. Wang Yan could also upset for the podium if other people are having an off day, as could Simone. Should be interesting, at least, and somewhat less of a disaster than last year's.
Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Larisa Iordache
Mykayla Skinner
Vanessa Ferrari
Giulia Steingruber
Claudia Fragapane
Erika Fasana
Yessenia Ferrera
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Yessenia Ferrera
I really want Yessenia to medal here. She's got mind-blowing tumbling and is an amazing performer. She definitely has the potential. Again, Simone is the obvious pick here. And Larisa is the obvious second place. The other women I have listed are all great too, but their execution doesn't match up with these three. I think Fasana might surprise us, though.
Really, looking at the gymnasts I have predicted to make finals, this should be an epic Worlds. Maybe if we burn some incense over the beam or something, it might not be such a splat fest of a final. Vault, bars, and beam should have some good battles. Floor is more locked up, but I love those gymnasts and their work anyway, so I'll still love that final, regardless of what you guys will think. The team and all around titles are fairly well spoken for if there aren't major upset injuries or weird off days on the day of the final, but the fight for silver and bronze should be great.
USA Team
Simone Biles, Bailie Key, Nia Dennis, Kyla Ross, Mykayla Skinner, Ashton Locklear/Gabby Douglas
VT: Key/Dennis, Skinner, Biles
UB: Ross, Dennis, Locklear/Douglas
BB: Ross, Biles, Key
FX: Key, Dennis, Biles
The US literally has over 50 combinations of gymnasts expected to compete this year which could stroll away with the gold. Even if Simone pulls and Ebee-style "See you at UCLA, losers" retirement this year, the US would still be the top pick for gold. Raisman could be brought for BB/FX over a bars specialist. We've seen Locklear working on some things in IG which could put her out of one-event territory. Basically, at this point, the possibilities are endless. I've taken the plunge with the 'kaylas. I never thought I'd put My on a team over Mc, but if she makes a quarter of the improvement she made last year this year, she should take the spot.
China Team
Yao Jinnan, Wang Yan, Shang Chunson, Huang Huidan, two of Tan Jiaxin, Deng Yalan, and Bai Yawen
VT: Tan, Deng, Wang (Yao goes up first if Tan and Deng aren't both on the team)
UB: Tan/Shang, Huang, Yao
BB: any combination of gymnasts not including Deng or Tan
FX: Yao/Tan, Shang, Wang
I know a lot of people don't like Shang/don't see her on another team, but she can tumble, so she has a spot on the team. If Tan does in fact get that Amanar, she'll definitely take one of those last two spots. Wang Yan will be like a ray of sunshine for China on their trouble events. There's no way she's not on the team.
Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Seda Tutkhalyan, Maria Kharenkova, Ksenia Afanasyeva, Alla Sosnitskaya, Viktoria Komova
VT: Mustafina, Afanasyeva, Sosnitskaya
UB: Tutkhalyan, Mustafina, Komova
BB: Tutkhalyan/Komova, Mustafina, Kharenkova
FX: Mustafina/Tutkhalyan, Sosnitskaya, Afanasyeva
This is probably the hardest team for me to predict just because everyone is as likely to be in Germany having surgery as at Round Lake. Aside from Aliya, who probably would have competed through that ACL tear if she could have, I'm pretty confident in Tutkhalyan, Kharenkova, and Sosnitskaya to still be in one piece for Glasgow. Afan just competed a 6.0 difficulty at Voronin, and considering Valentina's enthusiasm to put her on the Nanning team, I expect she'll be in Glasgow. Komova I don't know about, but she's actually put together four routines and hasn't tripped over any mats lately, so I'll go with her. That first beam spot is still kind of scary, and Afan could potentially go up if she is consistently hitting a beam routine this year. I'd love to see Grishina come back and take one of the spots.
Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Laura Jurca, Andreea Iridon, Alina Stanila, Andreea Munteanu, Diana Bulimar
VT: Stanila, Jurca, Iordache
UB: Bulimar, Iridon, Iordache
BB: any combination of gymnasts not including Stanila
FX: Bulimar, Jurca, Iordache
Didi needs to be in one piece for Glasgow. She's had the worst luck! She really needs to be on the team for bars. With her they have a respectable lineup. Without her, it could be a tense rotation. Iridon and the newly amazing Iordache should be a strong back end, though, regardless of the first spot, but they're podium-worthy with Didi's bars. I mean, a mediocre first routine would still keep them podium-worthy, but they'd be at the top of the silver-and-bronze pack with Didi.
Italy Team
Vanessa Ferrari, Erika Fasana, Iosra Abdelaziz, Elisa Meneghini, Carlotta Ferlito, Martina Rizzelli
VT: Rizzelli, Ferrari, Fasana
UB: Fasana, Ferrari, Abdelaziz
BB: Meneghini, Ferlito, Ferrari
FX: Meneghini/Ferlito, Fasana, Ferrari
Eh, it's a lineup. Putting Fasana on bars is not ideal, to say the least. But hey, that's the point of this, to just put something together and laugh come October.
Great Britain Team
Ellie Downie, Becky Downie, Rebecca Tunney, Gabby Jupp, Claudia Fragapane, Amy Tinkler/Tyesha Mattis
VT: Tunney, Tinkler/Mattis, E Downie
UB: E Downie, Tunney, B Downie
BB: E Downie, Jupp, B Downie
FX: E Downie, Tinkler/Mattis, Fragapane
Team GB has a lot of potential for this year. If they can keep beam under control, they should be in the silver-and-bronze pack with the rest of the Big Four. The Downies should be the cornerstones of this team. Tunney and another new senior should be throwing down strong routines on their best events. Jupp is going to fill out the beam rotation and help keep it from being too tense. Fragapane isn't entirely necessary, but I don't see her being left home.
Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Romania
Russia
Italy
Great Britain
Japan
Germany
Podium:
1. USA
2. Romania
3. China
The USA is obvious for the gold. If Didi can break the curse and actually make Worlds this year (and no one else takes her place in being injured), I think they have the best team of the rest of the world. No real trouble spots. Wang Yan's inclusion alone will greatly improve China. I think Great Britain could be close behind them, but I'll give the edge to China now.
All Around
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Bailie Key
Of course, now that Aliya actually has a coach, she could be on here as well. But at this moment, Larisa and Bailie outstrip her. Simone will win if she goes clean, as always, and with a Moors and possibly a TTY, who knows what will happen. I really want Rebecca Andrade on this podium. The all around should be fierce this year.
Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Hong Un Jong
Wang Yan
Giulia Steingruber
Oksana Chusovitina
Yessenia Ferrera
Deng Yalan/ Alla Sosnitskaya
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Mykayla Skinner
I really don't know about bronze. Skinner would seem the best choice, but if Steingruber can ger her DTY back, she'll be a strong challenge, and Yessenia Ferrera and Wang Yan can both be expected to put up a strong challenge. This should definitely be the best vault final in a long time.
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Yao Jinnan
Huang Huidan
Viktoria Komova
Aliya Mustafina
Becky Downie
Rebecca Tunney
Ashton Locklear/Gabby Douglas
Lisa Katharina Hill
Podium:
1. Yao Jinnan
2. Viktoria Komova
3. Huang Huidan
This should be another super strong bars final. I expect both the Chinese to medal again. Komova might need some upgrades for that silver, but this is her event. I'm not too concerned.
Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Bailie Key
Larisa Iordache
Maria Kharenkova
Seda Tutkhalyan/Aliya Mustafina
Wang Yan
Shang Chunsong/Bai Yawen
Andreea Munteanu
Podium:
1. Maria Kharenkova
2. Bailie Key
3. Larisa Iordache
I'm predicting Larisa will have a fairly large wobble but not fall this year. This has the potential to be a great match-up, but there is also some splat potential. If Seda can somehow do some witchcraft to hit in both qualifications and finals, she should be on the podium. But that would probably require some witchcraft. Bailie Key should be gorgeous and steady as always. Wang Yan could also upset for the podium if other people are having an off day, as could Simone. Should be interesting, at least, and somewhat less of a disaster than last year's.
Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Larisa Iordache
Mykayla Skinner
Vanessa Ferrari
Giulia Steingruber
Claudia Fragapane
Erika Fasana
Yessenia Ferrera
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Yessenia Ferrera
I really want Yessenia to medal here. She's got mind-blowing tumbling and is an amazing performer. She definitely has the potential. Again, Simone is the obvious pick here. And Larisa is the obvious second place. The other women I have listed are all great too, but their execution doesn't match up with these three. I think Fasana might surprise us, though.
Really, looking at the gymnasts I have predicted to make finals, this should be an epic Worlds. Maybe if we burn some incense over the beam or something, it might not be such a splat fest of a final. Vault, bars, and beam should have some good battles. Floor is more locked up, but I love those gymnasts and their work anyway, so I'll still love that final, regardless of what you guys will think. The team and all around titles are fairly well spoken for if there aren't major upset injuries or weird off days on the day of the final, but the fight for silver and bronze should be great.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Worlds Vault and Bars Finals Thoughts
Despite everyone else's tepid feelings going into this Worlds, I knew it was going to be a good one. And these event finals cemented in my mind that I was right! Some of the closest competition in recent years and with only one fall across the two finals!
Vault
Phan Thi Ha Thanh: It's great to see her in the final, even if it didn't go her way. It's her landings that get her, she just seems not to get enough air time to really wrap in the twists during the salto. In a way, I'm glad she came in last, because that's just a testament to how great this final was.
Claudia Fragapane: Definitely not the cleanest vaulter, but I do definitely think she's improved the Lopez on CWGs. It still had a bit of the whip open-whip closed of her Lopez there, but it was nowhere near as pronounced. The DTY was about like usual for her, nothing really memorable either way.
Alexa Moreno: I'm just so happy she made this final! I love how she does an FHS and a Tsuk! Not the cleanest and and the floor seems t come to her as a bit of a surprise, but it's just so lovely that she made the final! I do think her Rudi was my favorite of the final, as well.
Alla Sosnitskaya: The Cheng was fairly nice, other than the landing. She just doesn't seem to get quite enough power to make it to the ground easily. It's definitely one to keep and continue working on though. Her DTY was pretty soft, form-wise.
Giulia Steingruber: Not her best of outings, certainly. The Rudi wasn't one of her better efforts and seemed kind of all over the place. She seems to have kind of lost steam this year. I think it might have been a smart idea to keep the FTT in the locker in case the DTY didn't work out, as it didn't here. I'll always be annoyed at her lack of toe point in the salto of the FTY. It's sad to see how much she's gone back from last year.
Mykayla Skinner: The judges are certainly being generous where the block is concerned, because that second hand could barely have been said to touch the table. Otherwise, it was a gorgeous vault. The form and body position were both lovely, and it was the best Cheng in the air of the final. Her DTY is always nice and powerful, and her vault in the final was no different. Beautiful. She really does just look so great at this Worlds.
Simone Biles: That Amanar is breathtaking. And she minimized the hop for the final! She just rockets off the table and into the stratosphere. I just love the way she's able to really open up into the grouns because she does everything so well in the air. The Lopez was beautiful as well! There's just nothing negative to say about either of her vaults, they're just so precise!
Hong Un Jong: Hong's Amanar has quickly become one of my favorites at Aisian Games and Worlds. I finally understand why they thought she could do a triple. She just hangs in the air! This one was no different, though she took a bit of a large step. Just beautiful vaulting, still. She didn't seem to get quite enough power for the Cheng and looked to go more out than up, but other than a bit of a scrappy landing it was still a crackerjack vault. I never thought I'd be fawning over Hong's vaulting, but she really has just improved a ton. And at 24!!
This was definitely one of the best vault finals in a long time. No falls!!! The top three vaulters were definitely the ones to medal, which is what we always want. It was super close between Hong and Simone and it could have fairly gone either way. This was definitely one of the only times I was on the edge of my seat waiting for a vault result! Two Amanars, three Chengs, three Rudis- great difficulty. All in all an amazing final. Well done to everyone!
Bars
Aliya Mustafina: Gorgeous. Duh. She really is just gorgeous on this piece. I think her handstands were a little bit less perfect than usual, but they were all still very nice. She caught her Van Leuwen with the straightest arms I think I've seen her catch with. I remember Mitch Fenner one time commenting that she was "leisurely in the full turn," and I really think "leisurely" is the best word to describe her bars. She just always seems so calm throughout her work and it really makes you feel like you don't have to worry with her. Brilliant stuff.
Ashton Locklear: Ashton can definitely be really proud of herself after these Worlds. She went from not even having competed at a Nationals to a Worlds gold medalist and individual finalist in such a short amount of time! She did one of her best routines in the final, which was wonderful for her. And she got the six-skill connection! I know some people think this routine is too cookie-cutter, but that connection has the wow factor for me! She had some of her cleanest execution of the season and it flowed really well. She just had the small step on the dismount, which was disappointing after she'd been sticking them so well in the domestic season.
Becky Downie: Becky also did a great job here. Her only really noticeable errors were some short handstands, including the one before her dismount. I wonder if she was maybe playing a little safe since she knew that was where she fell last year. The connections in this routine are just dynamite and I love them so much. It's great that everything is finally coming together for Becky this season and she's really showing the world what she's made of!
Ruby Harrold: I was so sad that she had a fall here! I love this routine so much and it was just so sad to see her falter. The Van Leuwen to Zuchold was breathtaking, as always. Her stuck dismount was also great to see after the disappointing fall. Ruby's had a stacked year this year, and she's done really well overall.
Lisa Katharina Hill: This is a great composition. Her connection of toe full-Maloney-clear hip 1/2-clear hip full-Geinger is really unique and eye-catching! Her Bhardwaj was also beautiful. She definitely had some bobbles throughout the routine, but she covered really well and kept her head through it all. Really exciting stuff and she did very well in the deepest final of these Worlds.
Daria Spiridonova: This was absolutely one of Daria's best routines. Why not save the best for last? All the inbar work was really deftly completed. She caught pretty much everything with fully extended arms, which was wonderful to see. Her Van Leuwen was also really well done, and she managed to make it stand out. The piked Jager was gorgeous and well above the bar in the flight. She hit most of her handstand perfectly, her only really noticeable error being when she lost herself in her last half pirouette before the dismount. Really gorgeous work.
Huang Huidan: I just love her dismount. Just something a little different. She performed pretty much like always. The pirouette combination into the piked Jager was really deftly performed. She also caught her Chow 1/2 with COMPLETELY extended arms, which just made it look so nice! The stuck dismount was a great finishing touch for her great routine. The slo-mo afterward really made me appreciate her lack of grips. She seemed to barely have her hands on the bar at all in some of that elgrip work!
Yao Jinnan: Everything finally came together for Yao! The opening connection was incredibly fluid and beautiful. Her pirouette series into Tkatchev went very nicely, and a 1 1/2 pirouette is always a nice somewhat unexpected flourish. The highlight of the routine was definitely the dismount for me. She just hung in the air and stuck it so easily. And a perfectly done DLO dismount is very easy to watch.
Bars was pegged to be the nail-biter of this year's Worlds, and it didn't disappoint! Excellent work all the way through the ranks and a ton of super exciting routines. Who would have expected Daria to claim the bronze here? Really well done for her, she had an outstanding routine last night and totally deserved the bronze. Haung and Yao pulled off the Chinese 1-2 on bars everyone was contemplating, and they really have superior work. Ruby's fall was disappointing, but it was great that there was only one fall across both finals. It was great to see Yao finally bringing home a World title after a lot having not gone her way in her senior career. There were also some great unique moves- TWO Bharwajes, a Zuchold, and a half-in double front, showing that there is still a ton of creativity!
Leos
My favorite leo of the night belonged to Becky Downie. I love the flag-on-the-back design, and the red was just beautiful! I personally love the bumblebee leo, so I was totally down with Aliya wearing it in the UB final. I loved the American one! It's great to see them in red, white, and blue, and I liked how the design was done. I was also a big fan of Giulia's. The light blue color was really gorgeous on her and the combination and design was great too.
My least favorite was definitely Huang's. I'm a person who prefers long sleeves, and the nude mesh and yellow/green... stuff didn't look great. I'm not a huge fan of the North Korean leotard either. It just seems all king of thrown together to me. I thought Phan Thi Ha Than's was a bit strange as well, kind of space-agey mixed with we-put-together-our-scraps. Alla turned up in a Russian stand-by. I'm not a big fan of it. It is very busy and the colors all kind of compete with each other.
Vault
Phan Thi Ha Thanh: It's great to see her in the final, even if it didn't go her way. It's her landings that get her, she just seems not to get enough air time to really wrap in the twists during the salto. In a way, I'm glad she came in last, because that's just a testament to how great this final was.
Claudia Fragapane: Definitely not the cleanest vaulter, but I do definitely think she's improved the Lopez on CWGs. It still had a bit of the whip open-whip closed of her Lopez there, but it was nowhere near as pronounced. The DTY was about like usual for her, nothing really memorable either way.
Alexa Moreno: I'm just so happy she made this final! I love how she does an FHS and a Tsuk! Not the cleanest and and the floor seems t come to her as a bit of a surprise, but it's just so lovely that she made the final! I do think her Rudi was my favorite of the final, as well.
Alla Sosnitskaya: The Cheng was fairly nice, other than the landing. She just doesn't seem to get quite enough power to make it to the ground easily. It's definitely one to keep and continue working on though. Her DTY was pretty soft, form-wise.
Giulia Steingruber: Not her best of outings, certainly. The Rudi wasn't one of her better efforts and seemed kind of all over the place. She seems to have kind of lost steam this year. I think it might have been a smart idea to keep the FTT in the locker in case the DTY didn't work out, as it didn't here. I'll always be annoyed at her lack of toe point in the salto of the FTY. It's sad to see how much she's gone back from last year.
Mykayla Skinner: The judges are certainly being generous where the block is concerned, because that second hand could barely have been said to touch the table. Otherwise, it was a gorgeous vault. The form and body position were both lovely, and it was the best Cheng in the air of the final. Her DTY is always nice and powerful, and her vault in the final was no different. Beautiful. She really does just look so great at this Worlds.
Simone Biles: That Amanar is breathtaking. And she minimized the hop for the final! She just rockets off the table and into the stratosphere. I just love the way she's able to really open up into the grouns because she does everything so well in the air. The Lopez was beautiful as well! There's just nothing negative to say about either of her vaults, they're just so precise!
Hong Un Jong: Hong's Amanar has quickly become one of my favorites at Aisian Games and Worlds. I finally understand why they thought she could do a triple. She just hangs in the air! This one was no different, though she took a bit of a large step. Just beautiful vaulting, still. She didn't seem to get quite enough power for the Cheng and looked to go more out than up, but other than a bit of a scrappy landing it was still a crackerjack vault. I never thought I'd be fawning over Hong's vaulting, but she really has just improved a ton. And at 24!!
This was definitely one of the best vault finals in a long time. No falls!!! The top three vaulters were definitely the ones to medal, which is what we always want. It was super close between Hong and Simone and it could have fairly gone either way. This was definitely one of the only times I was on the edge of my seat waiting for a vault result! Two Amanars, three Chengs, three Rudis- great difficulty. All in all an amazing final. Well done to everyone!
Bars
Aliya Mustafina: Gorgeous. Duh. She really is just gorgeous on this piece. I think her handstands were a little bit less perfect than usual, but they were all still very nice. She caught her Van Leuwen with the straightest arms I think I've seen her catch with. I remember Mitch Fenner one time commenting that she was "leisurely in the full turn," and I really think "leisurely" is the best word to describe her bars. She just always seems so calm throughout her work and it really makes you feel like you don't have to worry with her. Brilliant stuff.
Ashton Locklear: Ashton can definitely be really proud of herself after these Worlds. She went from not even having competed at a Nationals to a Worlds gold medalist and individual finalist in such a short amount of time! She did one of her best routines in the final, which was wonderful for her. And she got the six-skill connection! I know some people think this routine is too cookie-cutter, but that connection has the wow factor for me! She had some of her cleanest execution of the season and it flowed really well. She just had the small step on the dismount, which was disappointing after she'd been sticking them so well in the domestic season.
Becky Downie: Becky also did a great job here. Her only really noticeable errors were some short handstands, including the one before her dismount. I wonder if she was maybe playing a little safe since she knew that was where she fell last year. The connections in this routine are just dynamite and I love them so much. It's great that everything is finally coming together for Becky this season and she's really showing the world what she's made of!
Ruby Harrold: I was so sad that she had a fall here! I love this routine so much and it was just so sad to see her falter. The Van Leuwen to Zuchold was breathtaking, as always. Her stuck dismount was also great to see after the disappointing fall. Ruby's had a stacked year this year, and she's done really well overall.
Lisa Katharina Hill: This is a great composition. Her connection of toe full-Maloney-clear hip 1/2-clear hip full-Geinger is really unique and eye-catching! Her Bhardwaj was also beautiful. She definitely had some bobbles throughout the routine, but she covered really well and kept her head through it all. Really exciting stuff and she did very well in the deepest final of these Worlds.
Daria Spiridonova: This was absolutely one of Daria's best routines. Why not save the best for last? All the inbar work was really deftly completed. She caught pretty much everything with fully extended arms, which was wonderful to see. Her Van Leuwen was also really well done, and she managed to make it stand out. The piked Jager was gorgeous and well above the bar in the flight. She hit most of her handstand perfectly, her only really noticeable error being when she lost herself in her last half pirouette before the dismount. Really gorgeous work.
Huang Huidan: I just love her dismount. Just something a little different. She performed pretty much like always. The pirouette combination into the piked Jager was really deftly performed. She also caught her Chow 1/2 with COMPLETELY extended arms, which just made it look so nice! The stuck dismount was a great finishing touch for her great routine. The slo-mo afterward really made me appreciate her lack of grips. She seemed to barely have her hands on the bar at all in some of that elgrip work!
Yao Jinnan: Everything finally came together for Yao! The opening connection was incredibly fluid and beautiful. Her pirouette series into Tkatchev went very nicely, and a 1 1/2 pirouette is always a nice somewhat unexpected flourish. The highlight of the routine was definitely the dismount for me. She just hung in the air and stuck it so easily. And a perfectly done DLO dismount is very easy to watch.
Bars was pegged to be the nail-biter of this year's Worlds, and it didn't disappoint! Excellent work all the way through the ranks and a ton of super exciting routines. Who would have expected Daria to claim the bronze here? Really well done for her, she had an outstanding routine last night and totally deserved the bronze. Haung and Yao pulled off the Chinese 1-2 on bars everyone was contemplating, and they really have superior work. Ruby's fall was disappointing, but it was great that there was only one fall across both finals. It was great to see Yao finally bringing home a World title after a lot having not gone her way in her senior career. There were also some great unique moves- TWO Bharwajes, a Zuchold, and a half-in double front, showing that there is still a ton of creativity!
Leos
My favorite leo of the night belonged to Becky Downie. I love the flag-on-the-back design, and the red was just beautiful! I personally love the bumblebee leo, so I was totally down with Aliya wearing it in the UB final. I loved the American one! It's great to see them in red, white, and blue, and I liked how the design was done. I was also a big fan of Giulia's. The light blue color was really gorgeous on her and the combination and design was great too.
My least favorite was definitely Huang's. I'm a person who prefers long sleeves, and the nude mesh and yellow/green... stuff didn't look great. I'm not a huge fan of the North Korean leotard either. It just seems all king of thrown together to me. I thought Phan Thi Ha Than's was a bit strange as well, kind of space-agey mixed with we-put-together-our-scraps. Alla turned up in a Russian stand-by. I'm not a big fan of it. It is very busy and the colors all kind of compete with each other.
Saturday, August 9, 2014
Looking Ahead to Worlds Team Finals
Team finals are my favorite phase of competition in gymnastics, so I'm so excited for the team final in Nanning after last year's individual Worlds!
The USA is still the clear front-runner for the team gold. Some people started to doubt their dominance after an exceptionally shaky Classics, but even from that competition a decent team could have been named. I fully believe a team of Biles, Ross, Nichols, Gowey, Locklear, and Kocian could wipe the floor in the team final. I'm still super disappointed about Mykayla's block- IT WAS CREDITABLE EARLIER THIS YEAR!! Peyton Ernst still could make a case for her inclusion at Nationals, and if Mykayla and Brenna manage to pull themselves together, even better. Even just the we-survived-Classics-2014 team would have all the bases covered. Biles has one of the best Amanars ever, performed one of the best floor routines ever at Classics, has improved her beam and has become very steady, has usable bars, and is just generally one of the best gymnasts ever. Ross is especially useful on bars and beam, but is helpful everywhere and so strong and steady. Nichols is also steady and could be used anywhere. Gowey was landing Amanars in PT at Classics, so if she could bring that into competition she could be useful on vault, her beam is very useful, and she could also be used anywhere. Locklear and Kocian both have stellar bars, and Locklear could potentially be a team player on beam as well. Really, the we-survived-Classics-2014 team is surprisingly flexible. A strong Ernst, Skinner, or Dowell could all make the US team even more uncatchable, but it's pretty decently ahead of the rest of the pack as is.
Romania, who was my pick for silver, recently sustained a devastating blow with the injury of Diana Bulimar (will we ever see her at Worlds again!?) Her loss leaves an even bigger gaping hole on uneven bars, where Bulimar was steady and fairly decent, but also weakens floor, where Bulimar could bring in scores above 14.000. Iordache is now becoming even more Mustafina-esque in how much Romania needs her. Romania will be looking to her to bring in their highest score on every event, and likely any medals they can pick up individually. Romania will be scrambling to fit together a team. The biggest problem will be who to put up in the third bars spot other than Iordache and Stanila. Romania will certainly be looking forward to Jurca and Iridon's senior debuts next year!
Russia is also a team in shambles. Mustafina has had surgery on her ankle this year and her status is uncertain on vault and floor, which would be a huge blow. Even if she's only in for bars and beam, Mustafina will still undoubtedly be on the team if she is able, as will Kharenkova and Sosnitskaya. This provides at least one DTY, if Mustafina is not ready on the event, a great bars set, two strong beams, and two good floors. I would expect Mustafina to be put up on at least vault if she can chuck a DTY, just because they are hard to come by in Russia's current pool of seniors. This means Russia needs at least one more vault, two more bars, and one more beam and floor. I think the remaining spots will be filled by a combination of Komova, Nabieva, Paseka, Spiridinova, and Rodionova. I think Komova will likely be on the team if she can throw a routine together, and Nabieva will be chosen over Paseka just because Paseka has been blacklisted. A team I think is unlikely to be named but has its merits is the three locks, Nabieva, Komova/Spiridinova, and Fedorova/Kramarenko. Nabieva could be put up on vault and bars, Komova or Spiridinova on bars, and Fedorova or Kramarenko on beam and floor. However, I think the Rods will name a vaulter, bar worker, and a UB/BB specialist and find someone to put up in the final floor spot. This team is somewhat weak and vault and floor, strong on bars, and a mixed bag on beam.
China has named their team. I'm not sure if it's technically official, but even if it's unofficial, China doesn't really have any other options. The Chinese team is for both Worlds and Asian Games. Yao Jinnan, Shang Chunsong, Huang Huidan, Tan Jiaxin, Chen Siyi, and Bai Yawen will make up the Chinese contingent at Nanning. It is a bit difficult to judge the strength of China's team since we haven't seen Tan Jiaxin since last year's DTB Cup and word of skills we haven't seen yet are circulating, as well as potential injury for Yao Jinnan. Personally, I think most people are overrating this team. Some were saying after Classics that China could overtake the USA, but I honestly think they might not even take the silver. Bars should be very strong for China. Yao has displayed a 7.0 routine this year, Huang Huidan is the reigning World Champion on bars, and Shang tied with her at China's National Championships. Beam also has a lot of potential for this team. Shang Chunsong has a very difficult routine, Bai Yawen is on the team for her prowess on this event, but also showed inconsistency at Chinese Nationals. Huang Huidan has improved her consistency on beam and scored around 14.35 at Nationals. Yao Jinnan scored in the low 14s at Nationals, but has also proved inconsistent on beam in the past. Vault will be an uncertain rotation. Word is that Tan Jiaxin has been training the Amanar but will not be competing it this season and that Shang Chunsong now has a consistent DTY. Tan Jiaxin has a nice DTY, and Yao Jinnan's is nice as well. The third vault is where vault becomes a bit worrisome. Shang Chunsong is apparently now vaulting a DTY, but we have no idea what it will look like. Chen Siyi vaulted a DTY at Chinese Nationals, but it was scary. Floor is another worrisome event for China. Yao Jinnan has added two tenths to her D score, so she might be able to score in the 14s. Shang Chunsong has added three tenths, now tumbling a 3 1/2 twist as her second pass, but her execution has also gone down. The third floor spot is another cause of consternation. All the other members of the team have D scores of 5.3 or lower and will be unlikely to break the low 13s. China will have to rely on potentially a scary vault and definitely on a weak floor, and Yao and Bai have both shown inconsistency on beam, and Shang also fell on beam in Antwerp.
A team which is looking to have potential to challenge the Big Four is Great Britain, which has skyrocketed in success since 2012. Rebecca Tunney, who helped GB to their silver at Euros, had an elbow surgery which kept her out of the Commonwealth Games, but British Gymnastics said she would be ready for Worlds. Assuming she will be ready, her bars will bring in a big number for GB. Gabby Jupp has also been out since Euros 2013 with injury, hers to her ACL. Gabby was supposed to make a comeback at British Championships, but she was unready. Nothing official has been said, but it looks unlikely she will be on the team, which is unfortunate because her beam could be a big help. The rest of the team will likely be the Commonwealth Games team. Becky Downie showed inconsistency on beam in Glasgow, which is concerning because she was competing well earlier in the season. Kelley Simm will be helpful on vault and potentially on floor as well. Hannah Whelan is likely to be on the beam and floor rotations, and if she can recreate her Glasgow all around beam routine, she should bring in a strong score. Ruby Harrold will be put up on bars and floor. Her bars can score very well and made the finals in 2013, scoring in the low 14s. Her floor is also strong. Claudia Fragapane will be a big scorer for GB. She vaults a DTY and could potentially be used on beam. Her highest-scoring event is her amazing floor, where she can bring in high 14s. This team should have three scores above 14.500 on vault and two high bars scores and a third above a 14.000. Beam and floor are a bit questionable. Beam can have potentially three scores above 14. Ruby and Hannah will likely score in the 13s on floor, but Claudia should bring in a very big number. With Romania's blow and Russia's floundering team, I think GB should be able to medal and even challenge China for silver. GB is stronger than China on vault (assuming Shang Chunsong's is what you would expect of a new DTY from someone who was stuck with an FTY for a long time), very strong on bars, likely second only to China, and much stronger on floor. Beam is the make-or-break event for GB, but China also has some inconsistency on beam. Team GB is really a fairly evenly talented team, probably second only to the USA.
The USA is still the clear front-runner for the team gold. Some people started to doubt their dominance after an exceptionally shaky Classics, but even from that competition a decent team could have been named. I fully believe a team of Biles, Ross, Nichols, Gowey, Locklear, and Kocian could wipe the floor in the team final. I'm still super disappointed about Mykayla's block- IT WAS CREDITABLE EARLIER THIS YEAR!! Peyton Ernst still could make a case for her inclusion at Nationals, and if Mykayla and Brenna manage to pull themselves together, even better. Even just the we-survived-Classics-2014 team would have all the bases covered. Biles has one of the best Amanars ever, performed one of the best floor routines ever at Classics, has improved her beam and has become very steady, has usable bars, and is just generally one of the best gymnasts ever. Ross is especially useful on bars and beam, but is helpful everywhere and so strong and steady. Nichols is also steady and could be used anywhere. Gowey was landing Amanars in PT at Classics, so if she could bring that into competition she could be useful on vault, her beam is very useful, and she could also be used anywhere. Locklear and Kocian both have stellar bars, and Locklear could potentially be a team player on beam as well. Really, the we-survived-Classics-2014 team is surprisingly flexible. A strong Ernst, Skinner, or Dowell could all make the US team even more uncatchable, but it's pretty decently ahead of the rest of the pack as is.
Romania, who was my pick for silver, recently sustained a devastating blow with the injury of Diana Bulimar (will we ever see her at Worlds again!?) Her loss leaves an even bigger gaping hole on uneven bars, where Bulimar was steady and fairly decent, but also weakens floor, where Bulimar could bring in scores above 14.000. Iordache is now becoming even more Mustafina-esque in how much Romania needs her. Romania will be looking to her to bring in their highest score on every event, and likely any medals they can pick up individually. Romania will be scrambling to fit together a team. The biggest problem will be who to put up in the third bars spot other than Iordache and Stanila. Romania will certainly be looking forward to Jurca and Iridon's senior debuts next year!
Russia is also a team in shambles. Mustafina has had surgery on her ankle this year and her status is uncertain on vault and floor, which would be a huge blow. Even if she's only in for bars and beam, Mustafina will still undoubtedly be on the team if she is able, as will Kharenkova and Sosnitskaya. This provides at least one DTY, if Mustafina is not ready on the event, a great bars set, two strong beams, and two good floors. I would expect Mustafina to be put up on at least vault if she can chuck a DTY, just because they are hard to come by in Russia's current pool of seniors. This means Russia needs at least one more vault, two more bars, and one more beam and floor. I think the remaining spots will be filled by a combination of Komova, Nabieva, Paseka, Spiridinova, and Rodionova. I think Komova will likely be on the team if she can throw a routine together, and Nabieva will be chosen over Paseka just because Paseka has been blacklisted. A team I think is unlikely to be named but has its merits is the three locks, Nabieva, Komova/Spiridinova, and Fedorova/Kramarenko. Nabieva could be put up on vault and bars, Komova or Spiridinova on bars, and Fedorova or Kramarenko on beam and floor. However, I think the Rods will name a vaulter, bar worker, and a UB/BB specialist and find someone to put up in the final floor spot. This team is somewhat weak and vault and floor, strong on bars, and a mixed bag on beam.
China has named their team. I'm not sure if it's technically official, but even if it's unofficial, China doesn't really have any other options. The Chinese team is for both Worlds and Asian Games. Yao Jinnan, Shang Chunsong, Huang Huidan, Tan Jiaxin, Chen Siyi, and Bai Yawen will make up the Chinese contingent at Nanning. It is a bit difficult to judge the strength of China's team since we haven't seen Tan Jiaxin since last year's DTB Cup and word of skills we haven't seen yet are circulating, as well as potential injury for Yao Jinnan. Personally, I think most people are overrating this team. Some were saying after Classics that China could overtake the USA, but I honestly think they might not even take the silver. Bars should be very strong for China. Yao has displayed a 7.0 routine this year, Huang Huidan is the reigning World Champion on bars, and Shang tied with her at China's National Championships. Beam also has a lot of potential for this team. Shang Chunsong has a very difficult routine, Bai Yawen is on the team for her prowess on this event, but also showed inconsistency at Chinese Nationals. Huang Huidan has improved her consistency on beam and scored around 14.35 at Nationals. Yao Jinnan scored in the low 14s at Nationals, but has also proved inconsistent on beam in the past. Vault will be an uncertain rotation. Word is that Tan Jiaxin has been training the Amanar but will not be competing it this season and that Shang Chunsong now has a consistent DTY. Tan Jiaxin has a nice DTY, and Yao Jinnan's is nice as well. The third vault is where vault becomes a bit worrisome. Shang Chunsong is apparently now vaulting a DTY, but we have no idea what it will look like. Chen Siyi vaulted a DTY at Chinese Nationals, but it was scary. Floor is another worrisome event for China. Yao Jinnan has added two tenths to her D score, so she might be able to score in the 14s. Shang Chunsong has added three tenths, now tumbling a 3 1/2 twist as her second pass, but her execution has also gone down. The third floor spot is another cause of consternation. All the other members of the team have D scores of 5.3 or lower and will be unlikely to break the low 13s. China will have to rely on potentially a scary vault and definitely on a weak floor, and Yao and Bai have both shown inconsistency on beam, and Shang also fell on beam in Antwerp.
A team which is looking to have potential to challenge the Big Four is Great Britain, which has skyrocketed in success since 2012. Rebecca Tunney, who helped GB to their silver at Euros, had an elbow surgery which kept her out of the Commonwealth Games, but British Gymnastics said she would be ready for Worlds. Assuming she will be ready, her bars will bring in a big number for GB. Gabby Jupp has also been out since Euros 2013 with injury, hers to her ACL. Gabby was supposed to make a comeback at British Championships, but she was unready. Nothing official has been said, but it looks unlikely she will be on the team, which is unfortunate because her beam could be a big help. The rest of the team will likely be the Commonwealth Games team. Becky Downie showed inconsistency on beam in Glasgow, which is concerning because she was competing well earlier in the season. Kelley Simm will be helpful on vault and potentially on floor as well. Hannah Whelan is likely to be on the beam and floor rotations, and if she can recreate her Glasgow all around beam routine, she should bring in a strong score. Ruby Harrold will be put up on bars and floor. Her bars can score very well and made the finals in 2013, scoring in the low 14s. Her floor is also strong. Claudia Fragapane will be a big scorer for GB. She vaults a DTY and could potentially be used on beam. Her highest-scoring event is her amazing floor, where she can bring in high 14s. This team should have three scores above 14.500 on vault and two high bars scores and a third above a 14.000. Beam and floor are a bit questionable. Beam can have potentially three scores above 14. Ruby and Hannah will likely score in the 13s on floor, but Claudia should bring in a very big number. With Romania's blow and Russia's floundering team, I think GB should be able to medal and even challenge China for silver. GB is stronger than China on vault (assuming Shang Chunsong's is what you would expect of a new DTY from someone who was stuck with an FTY for a long time), very strong on bars, likely second only to China, and much stronger on floor. Beam is the make-or-break event for GB, but China also has some inconsistency on beam. Team GB is really a fairly evenly talented team, probably second only to the USA.
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