January Rio Predictions

Teams Qualifying at the Test Event
Romania
Brazil
Australia
Belgium


USA Team
Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, Maggie Nichols, Norah Flatley, Maddie Kocian
VT: (Flatley) Raisman, Nichols, Biles
UB: (Biles) Nichols, Flately, Kocian
BB: (Nichols) Raisman, Biles, Flatley
FX: (Flatley) Nichols, Raisman, Biles
Yeah, I know there are a ton of conspiracy theories about how the Attack Cup competitors are the ones up for second AA and so Raisman is off the team and yada yada yada, but unless another Amanar pops up from a top competitor (or another 6.0+ D score vault, the blogger mentions dutifully) or Mykayla Skinner suddenly becomes impossible to leave home, the Biles-Nichols-Raisman trifecta is definitely going. If the Amanar (and/or the Mykayla) situation does change though, it's a free-for-all and everyone have fun playing Martha because it's going to be one exciting ride. I've had a feeling that at least one new senior would make the team, and Norah's been training some awesome bars skills that could make her a UB-BB specialist that would fit the team perfectly. If the Amanar situation changes, I'm also calling Ragan Smith as a dangerous one- I could totally see her snatching up Aly's spot if the Amanar isn't her golden ticket.

China Team
Yao Jinnan, Shang Chunsong, Wang Yan, Fan Yilin, Liu Tingting
VT: (Shang Chunsong) Yao Jinnan, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan
UB: (Liu Tingting) Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Yao Jinnan
BB: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
FX: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
I definitely think this seems like the most balanced Chinese team in forever. Of course, this relies on Yao Jinnan being back in the AA, so if she's not things will shuffle. But even then, I don't think the 3-person lineups should be in too dire a state. Lots of gymnasts up on three events on this team, but still a good depth pool for them if someone falls apart either mentally or physically between now and Rio, I think.

GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Tyesha Mattis
VT: (Mattis) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
BB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
FX: (Mattis) Tinkler, Fragapane, E Downie
It feels so wrong not putting Catherine Lyons on this team seeing as she's basically been groomed for it the whole quad, but with Amy, Claudia, and Ellie, she'd only compete on bars and beam in the final, and Mattis is easily the better UB-BB specialist. If she just stays in one piece this year...

Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Angelina Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan, Daria Spiridonova
VT: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Afan, Bee Farm
UB: (Melnikova) Bee Farm, Mustafina, Spiridonova
BB: (Spiridonova) Afan, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan
With VRod's naming the 4-person core in 2015, she of course curse it not to happen. Since Vika is Vika and can never stay uninjured for more than one month at a time, I'm predicting she's off, and because VRod is VRod and whenever she opens her mouth nothing good can happen, I'm predicting Aliya's out for the AA. The weak link of this team is floor. Beam is a good and relatively nerve-free lineup for Russia (assuming Afan is doing beam next year), but of course it's Russia and it's beam, so that may end up being a weak spot as well. But in terms of how strong the events are, floor is the weaker.

Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Diana Bulimar, Laura Jurca, Catalina Ponor, Andreea Ciurusniuc
VT: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
UB: (Jurca) Ciurusniuc, Bulimar, Iordache
BB: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
FX: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
I want Izbasa back on the team, but news on her training has been spotty and she wan't put on the Olympic training squad, if I do recall correctly. It is a bit depressing to bring Ciurusniuc as a bars specialist, but Iridon is allergic to the apparatus and she's one of their best options. Bulimar could also go up for Jurca on either beam or floor. Ah, Romania is in a sad state.



Team
Finalists:
USA
Russia
China
Romania
Great Britain
Japan
Canada
Brazil

Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
The USA is the obvious pick and it will be a huge upset if they don't win, so moving on to the more exciting material. Romania looks to be ending their team-medal-at-every-Olympics streak. While I think they're looking not to be in the same extremely dangerous state this year, the rest of the Big Four and some top other nations look to be outstripping them fairly easily again for Rio. I think they'll be somewhere in the 4-6 range. The competition for the silver between China and Russia should be very exciting, with both having good depth years across the events, but I think China will maintain their silver streak due to some Russian shakiness on beam and floor. I also think GB has a good shot at the podium, though they have an uphill climb, and I think the other three might get closer to a medal than we're expecting.


All-Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Maggie Nichols
3. Larisa Iordache
I feel like I'm jinxing Simone not to complete her quad-long reign by this, but who else am I really to predict? Though I think Maggie could very well be on the chopping block for the team depending on who is suddenly wonderful this year, if she goes she is a very strong shot for the podium. Larisa is another obvious pick. Without Aliya or Vika, I don't really see much competition for these three, but if my doomsday predictions don't pan out, they could spice things up nicely.


Vault
Finalists:
Hong Un Jong
Simone Biles
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Ellie Downie
Afan
Marcia Vidaeux

Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Bee Farm
3. Simone Biles
I'm not holding my breath for the Cheng this year (but maybe?) Anyway, I'm thinking Hong Un Jong is going to pull ahead of Bee Farm this year. Not much change from last year.


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Daria Spiridonova
Aliya Mustafina
Maddie Kocian
Fan Yilin
Yao Jinnan
Becky Downie
Sophie Scheder
Simone Biles/Norah Flatley

Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Yao Jinnan
3. Daria Spiridonova
I feel like Yao Jinnan might be the more prudent gold-medal pick, but I want it to be Fan Yilin, so I went with her anyway. I'm expecting it to be China-China-Russia, regardless of the combination of gymnasts. Yeah, I have Simone potentially making it. she was two-pered last year, don't forget!


Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Norah Flatley
Larisa Iordache
Liu Tingting
Shang Chunsong
Aliya Mustafina
Ellie Black
Pauline Schaefer

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Norah Flatley
3. Aliya Mustafina
Again, I'm going with safe options for the podium. I'm expecting beam to be a bit more Big Four-heavy than in Glasgow. I'm again expecting Larisa to have some mishap keeping her from the podium. Simone comes in again with the obvious upper hand, but I think Norah has some potential for a challenge in her as well. I think Pauline Schaefer is going to just squeak in for the final. I was debating putting in Liu Tingting for the bronze, and I'd like to see it happen. And hopefully more gymnasts than not will have routines without major errors? I know, we haven't seen it in a while, but I think this group has it in them. I believe!


Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Afan
Claudia Fragapane
Flavia Saraiva
Larisa Iordache
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Flavia Saraiva
Yeah, I'm predicting Flava-flav for the final (and the podium, apparently!) She's apparently got a 6.3 routine in the works, and she's the kind of gymnast the judges love, so I see her making it in. As for on the podium, I was going to put Raisman there, but I just kind of felt like someone unexpected would medal on floor, and Flavia was the most unexpected of the gymnasts I predicted to final. So I put her there. I think this will be a pretty competitive final- aside from Simone, everyone is at a fairly equal playing field. I also think there are others at about the same level outside this group, so it should be fun to watch the fight to make it in. I'm really looking forward to this one!