Based on what is the selection committee actually selectioning?

Well, the whole "My team has stayed the same this entire time" thing actually happened. And I must sound extremely fickle after just Saturday saying I could see the advantages of a team with Gabby, but it left an extremely bad taste in my mouth that she was named.

I do still think she makes sense as a team member. But it bothers me that her inclusion was such a forgone conclusion this whole time. If it seemed that there had been any legitimate debate, that the gymnasts who actually delivered in the Trials process were being given the consideration they deserved, I would have felt more along the lines of "It's not the team I would have picked, and it was definitely a controversial decision with a bunch of options that all had pros and cons, but I get why they did what they did," whereas Gabby's position being unquestionable despite all the errors she's made makes me feel along the lines of, "What a slap in the face to Mykayla, who did precisely what Martha said she wanted to see- hitting everywhere, getting better as the Games get closer- but was shafted, to Maggie, who didn't even get thrown the alternate bone, and even to Ragan, who really gave it her best effort and placed higher than Gabby but didn't stand a chance when the team had already been chosen." Honestly, you know shenanigans are afoot when Tim is saying they're taking so much time to come up with how they're going to rationalize the team. If you're not expecting the ignorant masses who only tune in every four years to get why you put the reigning Olympic AA champ on the team, I think that says more than anything.

Like I said, I do think Gabby makes sense for the team based on Martha's priorities, specifically "Rest Simone on UB and have an AAer". But this Trials process was just kind of shady.

But anyway, this team is still super strong and should do very, very well. The biggest problem now remaining is who the heck is NOT going to do AA in quals. Laurie and Aly have earned it, full stop. But are they really not going to have Gabby do UB in quals? If they put her up, Aly makes the most sense to take out of the lineup in terms of just her ability on that event. And she will have had two Olympics of injustices. As the buzz has been, Laurie is the media-minded choice to remove- and again, enter my accepted conspiracy theory that she was scored generously to make her case for the AA.

Individually, they should rack up quite a haul.
AA: They are definitely favored to have two AA medalists. Simone is, of course, favored, and then whoever the second AAer is will be the favorite for silver.
VT: Favored for the gold
UB: People tend to be way too far to either end of the spectrum here. The US doesn't suck on bars, their lineup will be very strong. But Maddie Kocian is not a near-lock for a medal either. Potential for a medal.
BB: Suddenly beam has gotten a super deep field. There should be two Americans, though Simone's stranglehold on her spot is looking to be slackening. They could leave with two medals or none depending on the day, because beam is beam.
FX: Favored to go 1-2, but this could also potentially have some competition really making a push. Still should be fairly safe if they go clean.

And just for funsies, to prove Nastia at least semi-right, a B team that would be favored to medal:
Mykayla, Ragan, Ashton, Maggie, Amelia
VT: Maggie, Meals, Mykayla
UB: Maggie, Meals, Ashton
BB: Meals, Maggie, Ragan
FX: Maggie, Ragan, Mykayla


Other thoughts on night 2:

• I LOVE that MLT and Meals designated themselves the universal cheering section
• Scoring actually got somewhat reasonable for the most part, which was a bit surprising (and where Laurie's concerned, again, conspiracy theory)
• NBC was actually helpful in their commentary because I had been wondering which tribe Ashton... is a member of? belongs to? I don't know the PC terminology.
• Mykayla Skinner's floor where she just had a ball was life-giving! Especially that moment after her full-in where she just started mugging!
• Why can't the USAG YouTube channel at least upload the routines that weren't broadcast? Would it really hurt NBC's revenues for me to be able to watch Brenna's hit bars and Meals being the queen of Trials and Christina BEING THERE? (First-world problems, entitlement, throw whatever you got at me, I will still be disappointed that these videos won't exist- maybe some helpful soul will have illegally filmed those routines and will upload them?)
• That moment after the final routine when all the gymnasts were just celebrating their accomplishment was absolutely magical

...Into the Fire

We are halfway done with the US Trials, and in keeping with the 2012 go round, day 1 looked nervy. Martha is still saying she has the same team in mind she always has... I saw someone else saying why bother with a Trials process and just go ahead and pull a Russia and name the team in February if nothing that happens during that process actually affects anything? Because there should definitely have been some change in outlook during this process. Is this legitimate, or is she just trying to keep drama to a minimum?

The Core
Simone had one of her more "meh" nights. Honestly, I was a bit scared when they showed her Cheng- her block was way off to the side and it looked like her hand was close to missing the table. Hope she fixes that tomorrow, I'm more concerned from a safety standpoint there than anything else. Otherwise, her biggest error was of course beam, where she had the wonky wolf turn. Still held it, which is better than she's done in some bad beam situations domestically before, and what Martha would want were that in the team final. And the dismount!!!! Has it always been that high and floaty or have I just been too wrapped up in myself to notice? (I will love you if you get that reference.) She covered well otherwise, and it overall wasn't her best night, but I'd say it was about on par with her title-winning performance in the Worlds AA last year. She still had no falls and the best routines in the country on two events, so even if she wasn't Simone, her place should have been safe.

Aly had a pretty standard day, which puts her toward the top of the mental game tally. She had errors on vault and beam, but put up some of her best work on bars and killed floor. I think her vault was probably her worst of the domestic season so far, so it would be nice to see that back where it was tomorrow. Her scoring was pretty much what can be expected internationally, and she did precisely what she needed to do to keep herself a lock, which is just keep chugging along.

Laurie, on the other hand, was a bit gifted in scoring. Her vault was definitely not the best DTY of the night... I'd say the other ones that were broadcast were pretty much all better. So on that front... I'll be getting to that later. While she had some hiccups, she definitely acquitted herself well on the grit front- she made it through the rest of her bars routine calmly after her major break, and covered fabulously on her LOSO series on beam. I love the way she pulled a Chellsie Memmel 2006 TF and was all, "What error? No wobble, see!" As for her scoring, I saw a conspiracy theory that actually seems rather plausible... there's been a lot of talk going around about how the business side and marketability might affect who goes up for the AA, and maybe Laurie's scores are being inflated so the results override the commercial issue and she gets to be one of the three AAers.

On the #Mashton front, Martha's basically confirmed that Maddie pretty much sealed the deal last night. She's been more than just throwing but slamming down the gauntlet on bars the last couple go-rounds. She's always had the upper hand because we all know Martha is against true specialists on 5-person teams. The thing Ashton had going for her in the full team picture was the better beam hit record, which was erased last night (and then NBC decided to Hollie Vise it, great). It would take something unforeseen tomorrow to get Maddie off.

The Professor and Mary Ann
All that leaves one spot for the team, and the remaining gymnasts are in a bit of an odd position as they are pretty much all only big standouts on one event, which is in part due to the ridiculous strength of the 4-person core and in part due to the depth on each event.

So, where to make a splash? The preferable routines to replace would be Laurie's vault and Simone's bars, and I also think it would be nice to put someone else up for Laurie's floor, because again, that score is a little fantastical, but that doesn't really seem to be what USAG is going for and it's definitely a lower priority. As for whether vault or bars is more important, I think Simone's across-the-board strength make vault the more important from a score standpoint, but Martha will probably want to rest Simone on bars, so that I think will be higher from a Martha standpoint.

Gabby continues not to bring her best to the table. She had wonky turns on floor and a bunch of weird D-score happenings and a fall on beam, which are slightly less important events for her but still doesn't look very good. People (Martha, specifically) keep pulling the "she peaks later in the season" card, but at what point does that not make up for lackluster performances all season? This point in the process last quad, Gabby was consistently top 2, not outside the top 5. She was on an upward trajectory during the domestic season, and that hasn't been the case this year. And if we're letting gymnasts on the team based on how they might improve in the next month, doesn't it make at least as much sense to give that benefit of the doubt to Maggie since she was injured? But the good news for Gabby is that the preferably replaced spots are on her strong events. I think she had the stronger DTY last night when compared to Laurie, and her bars are good for a TF spot to give Simone a rest.

Maggie is looking good post-injury, but she's still racing the clock in terms of being back in time. She and Gabby had fairly even nights, I think, though Gabby is in the lead by 3 tenths. I disagree with them having the same score on beam, because Maggie had the more solid routine once you take into account their falls but only 1 tenth higher in E, but that's not the event that's going to make or break this puzzle. Her vault also tied with Gabby, with Gabby having a bit tighter form and Maggie having a bit better dynamics. Again, I think she had a stronger vault then Laurie. Her bars were okay, not great, sub-in-for-Simone-able, but there would be a deficit. All we know about her floor is that it was a hit, so without having anything to look at, there's no possible discussion of how realistic her scoring was there and how she compared to others, but we do know she has the fourth-highest floor D score. It's just such a shame that she got injured, because she would 90% likely have made herself a lock for the fifth spot by now otherwise.

I had sympathies for Mykayla in the last spot, and a lot of people who didn't previously have joined me in them after last night as she really made a push for herself and was one of only a few athletes to put out her best stuff. She would bring another 6.0+ vault to both the literal and proverbial table as well as a second vault final spot, though it would definitely be harder for her to medal there this time around than it was in Nanning, even if her Amanar returns, especially if Steingruber brings the front double. But even then, let's not forget she has a nice history of scoring better abroad than at home on vault. Her floor scored about what it did in Nanning last night, and I think it was slightly better executed, so I think she's right about in range with maybe a tenth that could be added. And once again, after wondering what her choreographer was smoking the first time I watched it, I now kinda like her floor. Really, in terms of how well the gymnasts performed, Mykayla should have rocketed herself to Rio, but there remains the issue of Simone having to do bars in TF, and doing AA in QF, TF, AA and then 3 EFs would be quite a load. She has definitely made herself a lock for at least alternate, though. But I just love how after not even making Trials in 2012 she came back and busted her butt and is really gunning for this Olympic team.

As for Ragan... I really just don't think it's in the cards for her this year, which is sad, because she's probably my favorite of the ones who had a legitimate chance. She just doesn't really fit into this puzzle- she's sort of this quad's Sarah Finnegan in as much as she'd most likely be on the team if Aly didn't exist. Beam is just pretty well covered, and floor (which she totally should not have been half a point behind Laurie on... but again, I buy that conspiracy theory) is less important this year than vault and bars. She's not committed to Oklahoma until the 2019-2020 season, so I really hope she doesn't follow Sarah Finnegan's footsteps in dropping down to level 10 and not continuing elite, because I think she could totally have success next quad.

So, who for that final spot?
VT: I think all 3 still in the running should be able to outscore Laurie here
UB: Mykayla's not usable. Maggie is sub-in-able while not necessary to put up in quals, making that picture much easier. Gabby is definitely the best here of the 3.
FX: Laurie would outscore Gabby. Maggie and Mykayla I think could both go either way in a scoring battle with Laurie.

Ironically enough, because I was saying I didn't think Gabby fit the whole time coming into Trials, while everybody else is less pro-Gabby after last night, I'm actually more pro-Gabby. I think she could very well outscore Laurie on vault and fits in the bars picture, making her the easiest to slot in on the money events. The problem then becomes UB in quals, which would get messy. She could potentially make the EF, but under all likely circumstances wouldn't medal, and then Simone, Aly, or Laurie couldn't do AA, or Maddie couldn't qualify to the EF, which would be rather pointless, and she has a much more legitimate chance at a medal than Gabby.

Mykayla compliments Maddie well, making quals easy, and would really add to the vault lineup, but then Simone would have to do all 4 in the TF, which, in addition to all the individual finals, would be quite a load.

Maggie would also be a good compliment to Maddie in quals, and could definitely be subbed in for bars in the TF, addressing both problems. I think she should also be able to outscore Laurie on vault and has potential on floor, making her good as a team player spot. In terms of the gymnast who fits the puzzle the best, I still think Maggie takes that role, but her lack of a standout event drags her down.

Gabby slots in the most easily, Mykayla brings a good scoring advantage as well as making the quals puzzle simpler, and Maggie is the most versatile. At this point, I'd still prefer Mykayla or Maggie in the fifth spot, but I can see the advantages of all the potential teams.


Miscellaneous

• Brenna hit bars and THERE IS NO WAY TO SEE IT
• I am just in general feeling twitchy at the lack of videos of every routine I've come to expect from US domestic meets. I hate NBC!
• On the subject of hating NBC, AL CALLED SIMONE GABBY. Can that please do him in?
• I'm so happy Meals is hitting! Can she please be an alternate? Pretty please? Another most any other team would love.
• Christina is competing and was in the background of the broadcast a ton so I got to see her even if none of her routines were shown and she's beating Gowey and Schild in the AA and she's hitting!!!
• MLT just casually popping up all the time. (Even though they never show Meals. Which they should.)
• I loved everyone asking other gymnasts "Could you hear me?" when they were done with their routines
• To quote my sister, "They have a ton of weird floor music this year." I'm not particularly happy with the turn US floor routines have taken this year, they seem either to have no focus with a few crowd-pandering moves thrown in or are just old choreography thrown together.

'Twas the night before Trials

13 videos of the 7 chosen gymnasts from whom the team will 95% likely be formed were uploaded today, providing a little discussion fodder on the eve before the 2016 Hunger Games- ahem, US Olympic Team Trials Women's Gymnastics.

Simone was not shown on vault or floor, weirdly enough, only on bars and beam. Simone is Simone is Simone, she hit and was super crisp and looks totally ready. There was not a single wobble on her beam, but I'm still wary of that Barani. Her dismount was SO FLOATY!! But anyway, she's Simone and performed in typical Simone fashion, next.

So, Aly. I love the way she landed that front pike super low and then just went "wolf jump, there, what landing issue?" You can also tell she has really put in the numbers on that layout to get it to a real stretched position. At this point, I honestly don't get why it's being downgraded- heck, even at P&Gs she had to submit an inquiry for it to be recognized! Seriously, it's a layout. Her form is Aly form, but that's not the realm of the D-score. What is the reason for downgrading? But still, no controversy where she's concerned, she's a lock, next.

Laurie looked as good as she has all year on vault. It would still be optimal for her not to be used there in the team final, though, so I think that really is going to be an important event for other battles to make the team. Her beam looked absolutely gorgeous, once again. She has downgraded her dismount from a BHS+BHS combo to just a round off into her double pike, potentially giving Aly a bit more stock in the second-beamer race. And she rounds off the locks. So to the races for the other two spots.

#Mashton

From the looks of things, this race is exactly the same as it has been the whole time. Maddie's got the difficulty edge, Ashton out-executes her, and Madison does all four events while Ashton eschews vault and floor. In who-brings-the-bigger-bars-score terms, Ashton gets the spot. In what-Martha-likes terms, Madison gets the spot because she does all four events. And we all know the latter terms are stronger than the former. I would be shocked if a true specialist is named. Leaving us with...

Gabby vs. Maggie

I was in favor of Maggie over Gabby back in January, and then only picked Gabby in May when I went with an entirely different team structure which has now fallen through. So post-P&Gs, I've been consistently pro-Maggie, and that's become an increasingly popular mindset. Here's the logic: Gabby is only consistently in contributing range on bars, so it makes more sense to bring Maggie who can contribute on multiple events. This is the battle where I think vault will really come into play, as I was referring to with Laurie up there. Which is where things could get interesting, and where we might actually have gotten some insight from the videos. Both gymnasts have been making noises all year about bringing out an Amanar, and Maggie only displayed a DTY in podium training. Unless she pulls a move like Aly at Classics last year, it looks like she's not going to get an Amanar nod. If I were the one picking the team, this would be my position: if Gabby does an Amanar, she goes regardless of Maggie's vault; if Gabby doesn't do an Amanar and Maggie does, Maggie goes; if neither Gabby nor Maggie does an Amanar, battle with advantage Maggie. I do think that even with just a DTY, she could very well outscore Gabby and Laurie on vault, and if she has floor back in fighting shape, she should outscore Laurie on floor, still giving her two events with potential for the lead off bars spot if they don't want to put Simone there. However, if I really use Martha-logic, I do think Gabby has the Martha advantage because... she just seems to.

Honestly, at this point, I've got a fair bit of sympathy for Mykayla in the last spot. Her floor scores have been the same as Laurie's, but I think that's a bit of a case of Laurie getting a boost. Mykayla does have a bit an interesting tendency to score at least as well internationally while her teammates experience a slight drop. She also is, of course, the US's only other hope for a vault medal, and would neatly finish off the vault lineup. The only real downside is her inclusion would mean Simone would have to do bars in the team final, which is not Martha's preference.

I do think Martha's team is most likely going to be Simone, Aly, Laurie, Maddie, and Gabby, even if it's not one I think is the best option. But then again, we all thought we knew what she was going to do last year, and then she went and named Brenna to the team. So who can really say?

Out of the frying pan....

Well, Nationals are over, and for the juniors, that means we got to see some lovely new talent, and for the seniors, the field has now been cut to the 15 who will be contending for Olympic spots. May the odds be ever in your favor!

The Good

• Christina is going to Trials blessings all around!!
• Aly. What a weekend.
• Maile O'Keefe reminded everybody she exists and slayed the life out of that competition
• Riley All-the-silvers McCusker
• Brenna hit bars night 2!!
• And when she had trouble night 1 muscled through and didn't come off. I'm accepting reality that she won't be named to the team, but I am stoked that she held on both nights!
• Meals placed 6th AA and earned an automatic Trials birth GET THAT ALTERNATE SPOT
• Ragan put together the hit skills on the beam with a strong Patterson night 2 glory hallelujah
• Chae Campbell's vault
• Laurie. Beam. Night 1.
• Trinity Thomas taking flight on her rebound from her DLO
• Simone just casually getting 16s on floor and a 9.9 E score on vault, no biggie. I was honestly half expecting them to give that vault a 10.
• Maddie Kocian coming out night 2 and being all "Top that, go ahead, try" with that bar routine
• Nia Dennis placing on bars after a freaking Achilles injury in February

The Bad

• Gabby just seemed kind of off
• Morgan Hurd also was off
• Mykayla Skinner beam night 2. But 5 years from now I will still be celebrating the way she just turned her fall onto the beam into choreography. Work it.
• Jordan Chiles and Emma Malabuyo both being pulled for injury. Fortunately it's nothing too serious for either, right?
• Maggie's issues on bars night 2

The Ugly

• Deanne Soza's meltdown day 2. I hate to use such sensationalist language, but that's what it was. But again, she could very easily be blind right now. So priorities.
• Chae Campbell's dismount day 1.
• Ragan's Grishina night 1

Juniors Won Things Too It's Not Just Pre-Trials Yay!
Maile absolutely destroyed this competition. She hasn't always been the most consistent athlete in the past, so it was wonderful to see her go 8-for-8 and take the top spot in the midst of a competition riddled with issues. She's a 2018 senior, so I'm looking forward to seeing what she can bring next year as a last-year junior. I just love her double Arabian bars dismount! Her beam is completely astounding, and I really hope she can keep up this level of consistency there as she continues through her career. And I just love her giant smile when she landed her last tumbling pass day 2 and knew she had the title!
Riley is just a beautiful gymnast. Her extension and presentation is just picture-perfect. The only area with real error was her twisting (and her fall on her UB dismount day 2, but those things happen). I love seeing her floor with a non-Laurie-copycat style, which we haven't really seen from MG Elite. Everything just looked so easy for her! I'm excited to see what we see from her next year- when she'll be a senior, what?
Gabby is one I'm enjoying watching work her way to the top. She isn't always the top scorer, but she always chugs along and tends to capitalize. Her bars and beam have awesome work, and I think she has big things ahead of her!

Al's Moments of Gold

97% of the time I feel like "Replace Al with anybody, please. Literally anybody." And then there's the other 3% of the time when he comes up with gold ("Excuse me Mr. Dagget" being my favorite, of course) and I'm all "Never leave us, Al, never leave." And Al hit gold a couple times night 2.

• (To Tim) "You do a better Bela"
• "Shawn Johnson won the silver in the all around in the Olympics behind a very annoying woman"
• When he said "Flag up in the corner" so intently after Gabby's floor routine, not because the line itself was great, but because you could tell he was SO EXCITED to be correcting Tim and not playing the idiot for 2 seconds, you could tell he was just thinking "This is my moment of glory!" and reveling in it

The Olympic Puzzle

My 100%s: Simone, Aly, Laurie

Simone because duh. Aly because she has an Amanar and contributes on beam and is a favorite for a floor medal. Laurie because of bars and beam.

No, not Gabby. I'm one of about 27 who don't have her as a lock, and of those 27 I'm one of about 4 who doesn't have her there for a reason other than "She beat Miss Precious Perfect in London." Whether Miss Precious Perfect is Vika or Jordyn for that specific person.

My Fighting Contenders: Maggie, Gabby, Maddie, Mykayla

Alright, so why Gabby isn't a lock for me. As of now, she is only consistently in contributing range on bars, and to me, it just doesn't make sense to bring her just for bars. It's not like last quad where it would have been worth bringing her just for bars because the actual specialists were dead weight on the other events where we needed contributors and she had top AAer clout. The bars specialist situation is quite different this quad and she's being outstripped in the AA currently. She did outscore Laurie on vault night 2, and if I were Martha, she'd need to keep that up to get on the Gabby's on the team train. Or if she finally busts out the rumored Amanar.

Obviously we only saw two events from Maggie, but if she comes back fighting fit on vault and floor and Gabby doesn't withdraw a bigger vault from the bank, I'd take Maggie ahead of Gabby for vault and floor and lead off on bars. So many people are losing their minds over the idea of Maggie going up on bars in the team final, but she was the lead off last year and scored 14.8, so why? Though her night 2 bars didn't do her any favors.

On the Koclear front, Martha likes AA specialists over true specialists, so even though Ashton is better on bars and has been steadier on beam in the domestic season, Madison gets the bars specialist spot, assuming there is one. Which I think is about an 85% likelihood.

Mykayla has value for vault and floor, as usual, especially for having two vaults and a potential medal position with the potential for a medal with Bee Farm's questionable status. Of course, the problem is that Simone would have to go up on bars in TF with Mykayla on a team with Aly, which the US doesn't like to do.

My Outsiders: Amelia, Ashton, Ragan, Brenna

Amelia is killing it and she has huge vaulting and awesome bars, which fits nicely with the 3 up top, and she's just awesome, okay? Get that alternate spot!

Ashton has the disadvantage of being a true specialist and not doing all events, but her scores are giant (not saying entirely uninflated), and so she still must be given consideration.

After Ragan's rough Nationals, I just don't think the Olympics is in the cards for her, but she's just such a strong athlete that you still just can't count her out yet.

And Brenna. I still can't count her out completely. And vault and bars!

Some Favorite Routines
Juniors
Vault- Chae Cambell, day 2

This was just ridiculously high and flighty

Bars- Morgan Hurd, day 2

She swings so nicely in this routine, and she got the upgraded dismount quite well!

Beam- Maile O'Keefe, day 2

SHE DOES A DUDNIK ACRO SERIES

Floor- Riley McCusker, day 2

I love her style and presentation, and she's overall clean in the tumbling for the most part

Seniors
Vault- Simone Biles, night 2

Unfortunately, it seems USAG's camera spazzed out during this vault so we only get the crappy back-up camera quality

Bars- Brenna Dowell night 2

She made it through the routine without major error!

Beam- Laurie Hernandez night 1/Ragan Smith night 2

Yes, I tied them. Laurie's is perfection and I love Ragan's too much to bother much with the wobble on the full. Side note- can USAG please be consistent on whether it's "Laurie" or "Lauren" with their video titles? It's not even consistent within the same year.

Floor- Aly Raisman, night 2

This is just a wow routine. Her presentation has improved so much from last quad, and I think her form was about the best I've seen it in this one.

Rant/USA depth analysis

So, I saw some idiot saying that the US doesn't really have depth right now, and because I'm irritable like that, I decided to do a little combination rant/analysis post to prove 'em wrong.

And because some idiot also recently submitted a confession to GFC saying the US was putting all of its eggs in one basket with Simone, let's start by talking about how there are still near limitless options with her gone. Without Simone, there are still Gabby, Aly, Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Brenna, and Mykayla at the top, and then Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals (she killed it at Classics and VT/UB workers are well suited to the team and her floor is awesome and I'll totally get all Hagrid don't-insult-Albus-Dumbledore-in-front-of-me when it comes to Meals) on the outside as well. That's 13 totally viable options to choose from. And a combination of options that would make picking out of a hat a viable option for a gold-contending team.

To prove my point, I had a little fun with a random generator and here are the five gymnasts I got: Aly, Bailie, Alyssa, Brenna, Rachel
VT: (Bailie) Alyssa, Brenna, Aly
UB: (Aly) Bailie, Rachel, Brenna
BB: (Rachel) Bailie, Aly, Alyssa
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Brenna, Aly
This team is definitely not close to as strong as the one that will be named assuming some plague doesn't befall the team or VRod doesn't hire the Russian mafia to Tanya Harding everyone, and China would definitely be narrowing in on it, but it would still be in the hunt for the top prize.

Too easy? Of course. Alright, let's constrain the team only to gymnasts who turned senior this quad, so not only eliminating Gabby and Aly, but also Brenna and Mykayla. So that leaves Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
I'd pick a team of Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, and Alyssa
VT: Alyssa/Ragan, Laurie, Maggie
UB: (Ragan) Maggie, Laurie, Maddie
BB: (Maggie) Alyssa, Laurie, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Laurie, Ragan, Maggie
And this one is stronger than my random generator team (not that surprising, really), so again, strong contenders for gold.

Still too easy? Maggie and Laurie carried that last team- let's get rid of them too. So now the group is reduced to Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
So the team I'd pick now is Ragan, Alyssa, Bailie, Maddie, and Meals
VT: Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Meals
UB: (Ragan) Bailie, Meals, Maddie
BB: (Meals) Bailie, Alyssa, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Meals, Ragan
Still four strong lineups, still expected to medal, still potential for gold.

So name me another team where you could constrain selection to only gymnasts who turned seniors this quad and THEN cut out the top three remaining AAers and still have a team that would be considered as much a lock for a medal as a team can ever be in this sport.

China:
Alright, so out goes Shang Chunsong, Tan Jiaxin, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, and Mao Yi.
The team: Chen Siyi, Fan Yilin, Huang Huidan, Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru
VT: Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru, Chen Siyi
UB: Zhu Xiofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
BB: Zhu Xiaofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
FX: Zhu Xiaofang, Chen Siyi, Liu Jinru
Bars is still great, and beam is fine enough, but they're stuck with an FTY on vault and floor is once again a weakness.

Russia:
For the Russian we-expect-80%-of-our-team-to-be-repeat-Olympians Federation, out go Aliya, Vika, Afan, Maria Bee Farm, Angelina Melnikova, Seda Tutkhalyan, and Maria Kharenkova.
The team: Natalia Kapitonova, Evgenia Shelgunova, Daria Skrypnik, Anastasia Dmitrieva, Daria Spiridonova
VT: Shelgunova, Skrypnik, Dmitrieva
UB: Skrypnik, Kapitonova, Spiridonova
BB: Spiridonova/Kapitonova, Skrypnik, Shelgunova
FX: Kapitonova, Dmitrieva, Shelgunova
Three DTYs for them and the bars lineup is still killer, but relying on Spiridonova, Kapitonova, or Skrypnik on beam is never a good idea and Shelgunova has been very up and down there this year as well, so who knows how many would stay on. Floor also has three okay routines, but is lacking any standout and would be outstripped pretty easily.

Even with these ridiculous eleventh plague of the Exodus plague on the gymnasts constraints, China and Russia would still be able to put together pretty good teams that would acquit themselves well, but with Brazil and GB mounting fierce offensives, both of them would have stiff competition for a place on the podium. But compare them to the US plague on the gymnasts team, who would still be a practical shoe-in for a medal and could mount a good offensive for gold, and it's ridiculously obvious that the US does, in fact, lead the world in depth.

May Rio Predictions

Now that the Test Event has passed and the US have presented all their top gymnasts (who aren't injured), I'm going to do predictions again. Because it's the Olympic year, and why not do predictions a bunch of times?

USA Team
Simone Biles, Gabby Douglas, Aly Raisman, Brenna Dowell, Laurie Hernanadez
VT: (Hernandez) Douglas, Dowell, Biles
UB: (Biles) Douglas, Hernandez, Dowell
BB: (Douglas) Raisman, Hernandez, Biles
FX: (Douglas) Hernandez, Raisman, Biles
I was still holding out for Norah, but the Classics list has been released and she's still not on the roster, which is not good news. Yes, I included Dowell. Get used to predictions that seem to be a bit optimistic, because this will not be the last. I mean really, why not go for your I-mean-it-could-happen predictions in an ultimately inconsequential blog post? But seriously, if she can get the Amanar back and prove that the fall in the Pac Rims EF was just a fluke, she will be a tough asset to leave home. So, Brenna darling, do us a favor and get the Amanar back, okay? I'm sure it can't be all that hard (sarcasm, if I didn't make that obviously clear enough). This is one ridiculous floor team.

China Team
Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Mao Yi, Liu Tingting, Tan Jiaxin
VT: (Shang) Liu, Tan, Mao
UB: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Fan
BB: (Mao) Liu, Shang, Fan
FX: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Mao
I know China already named their team, but I really just think Tan Jiaxin makes a much smarter team member than Wang Yan. Ultimately, they have an awesome mix of ladies who are extremely well-suited to a six-person team, which makes things annoying here. China has, somewhat shockingly, come to a place where Wang Yan isn't necessary for either their vault or floor lineups. And Liu's higher beam consistency and AA potential give her higher stock than Wang Yan, in my opinion.

GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Rebecca Tunney
VT: (Tunney) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Fragapane) E Downie, Tunney, B Downie
BB: (Tunney) Fragapane, E Downie, B Downie
FX: (Tunney) Tinkler, E Downie, Fragapane
Whelp, Catherine Lyons is inheriting the can't-stay-healthy-for-more-than-a-week curse, and Tyesha, who I really wanted to go for UB and BB, has had it all along, so curtains for both of them. But guess who has surfaced again? Rebecca Tunney! So please let this not curse her to be an invalid, too.

Russia Team
Angelina Melnikova, Maria Kharenkova, Aliya Mustafina, Ksenia Afanasyeva, Maria Paseka
VT: (Kharenkova) Melnikova, Afan, Paseka
UB: (Tutkhalyan) Melnikova, Paseka, Mustafina
BB: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Afan
I'm holding to my prediction that Vika will not be back to compete this season and Aliya will be relegated to two events, thanks to the curse of VRod. Melka has been absolutely on fire so far, so hopefully she can take a spot and run with it. Kharenkova has shown herself to be a surprisingly good option so far, doing well on beam in all phases of the competition and putting up respectable floor scores in two (well, a 14.900 is certainly more than respectable, but also steering rather determinedly toward the ridiculous) at Russian Champs, and she did well at Osijek on beam also.

Brazil Team
Flavia Saraiva, Jade Barbosa, Lorraine Oliveira, Rebeca Andrade, Daniele Hypolito
VT: (Saraiva) Oliveira, Barbosa, Andrade
UB: (Barbosa) Oliveira, Saraiva, Andrade
BB: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
FX: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
Andrade is baaaaack!! This is a really well-balanced team, and they look poised to do amazing things!


Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Russia
GB
Brazil
Canada
Germany
Japan

Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Brazil
Yep. Brazil. I did it. I told you there were predictions in this that verge away from the strictly realistic. They completely rocked the house at the test event, so it seems home crowd support really does carry them. I mean, they got a higher score than China did in qualifications at Glasgow! I'm pulling for them, blindly, some might say. And I have the US and China 1-2 because of course.


All Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Gabby Douglas
3. Angelina Melnikova
Larisa is looking not to be at ideal condition to be earning an Olympic ticket, and I want her to get it so badly, but because NOTHING can go right for Romania at the moment, I'm not holding my breath. Cata is going. I'm working on accepting it. And if Larisa can get the spot, then good surprise for me. But anyway, all that to say: I'm predicting Vika, Aliya, and Larisa are out, leaving things a bit sparse at the top. But once again, Melka has been on fire, so she shall swoop in to claim the open spot!


Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Hong Un Jong
Maria Paseka
Ellie Downie
Giulia Steingruber
Dipa Karmaker
Marcia Videux
Alexa Moreno

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Maria Paseka
Biles has gotten the Cheng! Let the world rejoice! She shall finally reign vault! And Hong Un Jong must place higher than Maria Paseka- please!


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Fan Yilin
Shang Chunsong
Elisabeth Seitz
Sophie Scheder
Becky Downie
Brenna Dowell
Gabby Douglas

Podim:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Shang Chunsong
3. Elisabeth Seitz
Another pretty stacked deck. Bars has been ridiculous this quad. Fan unveiled the 7.0 D-score routine, and, oddly enough, she's the only world champion from last year who I predict will return to defend her title, so the chances are looking pretty promising for her to validate my desires and claim the Olympic title. Aliya needs to add something more to her basic routine to medal again, which I would be 100% behind. Shang NEEDS a medal from a high competition, and fortunately, she's looking to be toward the forefront of this pack. And for the final spot (assuming Aliya sticks with basic), I want it to go to Downie, but she's too inconsistent to be a strong pick.


Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Laurie Hernandez
Sanne Wevers
Pauline Schaefer
Liu Tingting
Flavia Saraiva
Shang Chunsong
Maria Kharenkova

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Laurie Hernandez
3. Flavia Saraiva
Fortunately, with some gymnasts becoming markedly more consistent this year, it looks like this year's beam final might be a significant improvement from last year's. Flava Flav (did I make this up myself? because I was pretty sure it was a common nickname when I started using it but I don't actually see it anywhere...) is an example of one of those who has blessedly improved her consistency. The Americans look good to be consistent as well. And then there's the predictions I refuse to make for reasons....


Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Giulia Steingruber
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Claudia Fragapane
Ellie Downie

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Ksenia Afanasyeva
I had Flavia making the final in January, but the mythical 6.3 routine appears to be nowhere in sight, so I must pass now. This podium pick feels obvious and boring to me, but there's nothing else I really see happening either, so... Can Claudia get a medal? Because I just really want that to happen.

The Weirdest Worlds EVER!

Yeah, I know I'm about a week after what could be considered reasonable timing for this post, but The Gymternet just started post-Worlds coverage as has The Couch Gymnast, so I feel justified in that.

The Good Surprises

• SANNE WEVERS HAS A WORLD BEAM MEDAL!!!!
• Great Britain got a team medal on both sides
• Brenna Dowell has officially competed at a World Championships and got the pike double front named after her with only the clapping of the audience as her track
• Sanne Wevers got a SILVER on BEAM
• The Netherlands qualified directly to Rio!! And were represented in three individual finals.
• Shang Chunsong is suddenly a beast
• Gabby won the AA silver
• Vika didn't fall of the beam in a major international event final.
• Farah Ann Abdul Hadi earned a higher AA total than either of the "Belorussians."
• Did I mention Sanne Wevers is A WORLD MEDALIST ON BEAM?

The Bad Surprises

• Romania only qualifying in 13th. If the Tokyo qualifying rules were implemented this quad, they wouldn't be going to Rio.
• On the flip-side of the Netherlands qualifying to the final, Brazil was SO CLOSE!
• Flava-Flav coming in dead last in the AA final.
• Aly not making a single individual final.
• Brenna falling twice on her UB routine (though admittedly, that can't be considered too shocking)
• Only one Russian in the AA final
• Simone grabbed the beam and landed her sisone in the red in the AA final

The Just Weird

• Russia was laughing and smiling after coming in fourth?
• Russia had fewer falls in qualifications than the US?
• Simone was 2-per-ed out of the UB final with China benefiting?
• There was a FOUR-WAY TIE?

The Top 5 Weirdest Things That Happened:

5. China benefited from an American being 2-per-ed out of the UB final

4. Simone had two big errors in the AA final

3. Russia was more consistent than the US in qualifications

2. Great Britain won the team bronze

1. A FOUR-WAY TIE

Team: The competition for second through fourth was amazing. The US, China, and Great Britain all had pretty much the best competition they could reasonably expect, so it was great to see them rewarded for it. It was also very exciting to see Canada sneaking up the rankings in a couple of rounds! And we had the Netherlands making everything pretty, even if they didn't catch lightning in a bottle like they did in qualification. I think Russia seemed a bit cavalier, and Seda was the only one who really seemed to care about their performance. But it was nice to see them take it in stride.

All Around: It's so disappointing that Simone had such big errors, but she still managed to get her highest score of a Worlds all around final yet! Ridiculous! Someone made the point that Simone tends to peak earlier in the season, so hopefully that is a good sign for next year. Larisa's fight to the podium was so wonderful! She's the first from outside the top group to make the podium in years, and it was such a triumphant victory! Speaking of gymnasts coming from outside the top group, so many of them were able to climb the rankings this year! Half of the gymnasts in the top eight who get recognized were from lower-ranked groups, and three of the top ten were from the bottom group! Unfortunately, the scores needed to get into the AA final were quite high, and they weren't sustained in the final itself, but the fluidity of the placements between qualifications and the final still shows a good competition. And to round of the medalists, we have Gabby. Long may she reign. She proved herself so well at these Worlds even after a rough training.

Vault: I'm of the mind that Hong Un Jong was the rightful winner of this one. But I also just love her vaulting. It's also disappointing that Simone wasn't able to win because of her lower difficulty when she has such superior technique and execution. When will she upgrade? But either way, this was by far the most exciting vault final in a long time! The podium was so close! Also, I just love Ellie Downie's vaulting. I would not be at all surprised to see her with upgrades next year, she's got such great power and technique. Giulia's injury was horrible, but at least she's supposed to be in fairly decent shape and not too badly injured. Ah, I miss the final last year when no one was injured.

Uneven Bars: Oh my goodness, THIS FINAL! No falls, and a FOUR-WAY TIE! It's too bad about Sophie Scheder messing up her dismount, but it is nice to know that that was the biggest error of the final. I think we can all pretty much agree that Spiridonova and Kocian were not on the same level as Fan Yilin and Vika. But here's my perspective: Fan Yilin and Vika won the gold anyway. So while it wasn't necessarily the most accurate judging, when the gymnasts who were overscored didn't affect the placing of the gymnasts who were better anyway, why can't we just appreciate the fact that we witnessed a four-way tie and gymnastics history? It's not like four-way ties are going to become a common thing. With the exception of Scheder's dismount, everyone had a great routine in this final, and it will definitely be one I'll watch over and over again as the years go by. And ruby made it with her wonderful routine!

Balance Beam: SANNE WEVERS WON THE SILVER! My delusional dream is now a reality! And so nothing else that happened in this final makes me at all unhappy. Honestly, it was better than I was worried it might be. With this group of eight gymnasts, who would stay on was seriously a crap shoot. I was going into this final with the mindset that Simone would be the only gymnast to stay on just because that was a legitimate possibility and I didn't want to get my hopes up. So honestly, I'm pleased with four of them staying on. Also, Pualine Schaerffer got a medal for Germany and that was so wonderful! And Vika didn't fall in a major international beam final, so that's more than could have been expected. So yeah, this final was pretty bad, but I wasn't expecting better. And Sanne medalled! So I really can't look at this final with any objectivity or any disappointment that anything else happened. She could have been the only one to stay on and I would have been happy.

Floor: I still haven't seen this final in whole: I missed the beginning of the final as I tried to get the mobile stream up, and I couldn't watch the last four routines with music because I was watching it in public. However, I have seen all of the routines (with music) at this point, though I still don't have a great perspective on it. No falls! The only World floor final this quad with not a single fall! Simone obviously was the deserving champion, she put on her usual awesome display. As to the debate over the bronze (and silver?) medals, my opinion is that Maggie, Sae, and Shang all had routines of pretty much the same quality, and so whoever took the bronze took it rightfully. It's sad, but true: sometimes a medal could go more than one way. Also, overall, the E scores were pretty high in this final, which was nice to see. And who doesn't like just watching Lieke's routine?

My favorite final: Bars. Only one major error which wasn't even that big comparatively and a four-way tie. This is one of my favorite finals of all time.

My least favorite final: Beam. Though, as I said earlier, I'm still not that unhappy with it. Sanne!

Overall, I really enjoyed these Worlds. The competition was generally pretty strong and so much unexpected happened! And there were people who thought this Worlds was boring.

How do you solve a problem like America?

Not because the US is in bad shape at all. Because they're just so good. How the heck is a decision supposed to come together? The US is in the enviable position of not having a bad choice. Any combination of gymnasts going to the Worlds selection camp would stroll away with the gold. Martha is not needed this year- the US could just draw names out of a hat. But of course, this is Martha we're talking about, and there will be a long series of observations and calculations before coming to a decision. Ultimately, there are two strategies most people seem to be speculating: take all the top five AAers with a sixth member who may or may not be used, or maximize total medal haul since the team gold is fairly well in the bag.

In terms of the first strategy, I don't think it makes sense to have the sixth member compete in qualifications if all five of the top AAers are brought. It just doesn't make sense to bring Gabby, Bailie, or Maggie if she weren't to compete all around in qualification, and while Aly is the gymnast whose strengths would most suit competing as a specialist in qualification (especially if the standard strategy of bringing a bar worker for the sixth member is utilized), she makes the least sense to drop from the AA lineup, in my opinion. If the accepted strategy of bringing a bars specialist happens, it would also make no sense for Gabby or Bailie to drop bars, and Maggie makes the least sense to bring if she's not going to compete AA, in my opinion. However, I would rank Aly as more important than Maggie to compete AA, and if a bars specialist is going to compete, one of those two would be the choice to drop bars. In terms of this strategy, it just makes more sense to me for the sixth member not to compete. For this strategy, the team I would pick: Simone, Aly, Gabby, Maggie, Bailie, Maddie K, alternate Mykayla Skinner. I think this is probably the most likely scenario.

However, I have more sympathy with the second strategy. The US will have a strong second AAer regardless, and with the order changing every time they compete, putting them all up in qualification still won't meant that the gymnast competing in the final is the one who would score the highest that day. The US is head and shoulders above the rest in the team, any second AAer would be likely to finish with a medal, and even make it a 1-2 finish (especially with these rumors Aliya might not compete), and so it would seem that bringing home the most medals possible would make sense as a top priority. And ultimately, why bring Maddie Kocian to Worlds just to have her not compete her bars routine, but it still wouldn't make sense to bring all the top five AAers and cut one out of the AA. To pick gymnasts for this strategy, we need to look at the "open" EF spots. On floor, Simone and Aly pretty much have the two spots on lockdown. They have their names on the beam spots as well, though I think Aly could be kicked out of her spot. On vault, there's only Simone. On bars, Gabby I think would probably be able to scrape in, but she also might not if the US puts up a bars specialist. On vault, Mykayla is the only one who could step into the second spot, and she has a nice history of scoring better on vault internationally than domestically. She also has a killer floor which likely wouldn't make the final but could be a great addition to the TF lineup. However, she did also tie with Bailie at P&Gs, so that makes her floor less of a commodity. Maddie and Ashton would both be gunning for a UB final spot and could compete for a medal, but I don't see both on the team this year. Maddie has won domestically, though I think Ashton might be more favored internationally. If she can add upgrades into her routine for camp, that might set her over Maddie. However, we know Martha likes AAers. But, there are already lots of AAers who can fill in wherever. For beam, I think Alyssa Baumann has a good shot of beating Aly, as does Kyla if she competes like she did day 2. If Kyla can get her routines together for camp (PLEASE), she could definitely have an edge for her combination of bars and beam, which Alyssa can't provide. I do think beam will be the hardest place for a specialist to make it, though.
Of course, for this strategy to go through, not all of the top five AAers can go. Aly is set for the team, I'd say. Her floor is medal-worthy, she has an Amanar, she hits for the team, I'd pick her for the second AAer, and her experience and leadership is highly valuable. The other three become more tricky. Gabby has bars (Bailie was very lucky to get the bronze with her error night two, I'd say), but she'd be a second pick everywhere else. She has proven that she can stay on beam now, but she was fairly tentative both nights. Her vault is good but she doesn't have the Amanar, and her turns that count toward her D score on floor aren't always solid. Bailie might have gotten lucky to come in third on bars, but they are strong. Her scores are comparable to Gabby's there and she could have more sway with her total AA set. Her floor can be a top routine, and her beam can be stronger than Gabby's. However, if Mykayla goes Bailie's floor would be less valuable and her beam composition (the layout especially) is dragging her down and can cause hiccups for her. And then there's Maggie. She has an Amanar, though that's the only event where she'd really be gunning for top position. However, she has good utility player advantages. Her beam especially could prove to be useful in a team final setting. Her floor also has the potential to be usable, though Bailie has the upper hand of the top AAers, and Mykayla does of the specialists. I think I'd say that Maggie makes more sense than Bailie. She has an Amanar, her bars aren't as good but they're usable, and I trust her more on beam. Bailie is stronger on floor, but if Mykayla goes, her floor wouldn't be necessary. And then there's Gabby. Somehow, it seems much easier to compare Maggie and Bailie than to trow Gabby in the mix. Her bars are strong, but I'm not sure where else she'd be used. If she'd only be used on bars in the TF, Maddie and Ashton might as well both go and have Maddie do AA in qualification. Actually, I think that might make more sense to me.

So, the team I'd pick (but which I doubt Martha will): Simone, Aly, Maggie, Maddie K, Ashton, Mykayla, Bailie/Gabby alternate (dang, what an alternate!)
VT: Maggie, Mykayla, Simone (quals: Maddie, Aly)
UB: Maggie, Maddie, Ashton (quals: Aly, Simone)
BB: Maggie, Aly, Simone (quals: Maddie, Mykayla)
FX: Mykayla, Aly, Simone (qals: Maddie, Maggie)

Six is starting to feel like an awfully small number.

Classics Wrap-Up

The Good

• SABRINA'S BACK!!!!!
• Dang Maggie
• The comebacks!
• Christina came in second on floor and stayed on beam!!!!
• Laurie is back
• Gabby Perea had awesome bars and beam
• Three juniors had standing fulls!
• THE PATTERSON
• Gabby's being consistent on beam?
• Simone's new floor is wonderful
• Kyla upgraded?!?!
• And is doing a Chow (I've wanted her to do that for so long!!)
• And a Bhardwaj
• Bailie got a new floor
• Texas Dreams in general took risks on floor
• Ragan came in second!
• Morgan Hurd has gorgeous bars! Such an improvement on last year!
• Simone has one balance check on beam and that was her only big error anywhere?!
• All the gymnasts on the podium scored over 60

The Bad

• Jazzy has new floor music. Bah, loved the Jesolo music.
• Laurie needs better variety in her bars composition
• No Marissa Oakley!
• Aly missed the Dos Santos punch front!
• Kyla fell twice on bars- what???
• CHRISTINA FELL ON BARS!!!! NO!!!!
• Brenna fell on her Van Leeuwen
• I was really excited for Alyssa Baumann's floor after podium training and then it was unremarkable in competition

The Ugly

• Skinner still vaulting off one hand
• Jordan Chiles WHY IS SHE DOING AN AMANAR?
• What my sobbing will be when the Rio and Tokyo teams are announced THERE ARE TOO MANY AMAZING GYMNASTS!

Trends I don't understand that need to die

Elsa the Ice Queen leotards with light blue fabric and nude mesh: Laurie and Jazzy were preparing to be Gators with that leo and imitating some of their worst. This was only among the juniors- I was going to say Mykayla improved her fashion sense but then I remembered she turned up in metallic pepto pink.
Archery choreography: Bailie was the only one with it here but I've seen it elsewhere and it should not be a thing anymore.
Choreographed facial expressions in floor routines: It's especially bad when they're given to the most expressive and magnetic gymnasts (like, say, Laurie and SJS, maybe?). Expression is important, but I'm a firm believer that a) expression =/= facial expression and b) it should be natural! When it's choreographed, it's just cheesy.

I'm impressed!

Aria Brusch: This girl has power! She had some rough moments, but she's got a ton of potential! Her vault was beautiful and powerful. Aria has a standing full on beam! Her bars were my favorite, even though she flew off the mat on the dismount. She has a Ray+Pak combo and a DLO 1/1!

Gabby Perea: And another standing full here. Her beam work in general is way ahead in difficulty and I personally thought her E score on beam was a bit low. Her bars are also beautiful and her swing is sooooo smooth!

Morgan Hurd's bars: She went from not even having a high-low transition and just a 4.2 D score last year to a 5.8 D score this year! And her execution has improved! I seriously can't believe it! She was just so gorgeous.

Aly's Patterson: THAT PATTERSON! She stuck it. She landed it upright. Better than Carly's famous 2004 AA landing! Amazing.

New Amanars: In the senior session, that is. Chiles needs to stop that RIGHT NOW! Maggie's was easily better, but Aly didn't even do one in PT?!

Gabby Douglas's beam: NOT the same athlete we saw in 2012

Twin City Twisters: In general. So much good from this gym! Both the juniors caught my eye. Tori Tatum has some difficulty she needs to build, but she's got a lot of great work! Abby Paulson was the biggest surprise to me of the competition. She only has an FTY, which isn't too good since she turns senior next year, but everywhere else she was great! Her bars remind me a lot of Maggie's last year- not the cleanest, not the most difficult, but very workable. And she does a double arabian dismount! Her floor was one of my favorite from the juniors. Beam was definitely her biggest standout- even with the fall, she packed that routine full! And Maggie. Maggie, Maggie, Maggie. What a crazy update on last year! And I love this new floor.

The podiums (/top 5)

Juniors

Jazzy- I was definitely a fan of her bars. The Maloney+Geinger was my favorite! And her releases don't all three come in a row! And again, I miss the Jesolo music. I was obsessed with that music! Nothing special about this new cut. But she busted out the tumbling! Both H elements in her routine. Impressive. She had the top beam, but nothing about it really stood out to me. she proved her national title was no fluke. As for next year, she looks to be heading for a utility player spot which, honestly, I don't see being used on the team.

Ragan- RAGAN DID IT!!! She landed on the podium! Her bars are still frustrating, and I think they should try to include more Stalder variation pirouettes.She definitely is going all-out with the difficulty. I don't know what's going to happen with that standing full- we know from Amy Chow that the pike full isn't going to be a thing, but it's not really a layout? If she tumbles in, maybe it could be more laid out. It took me a few watches to go for her floor, but now I love it! With the exception of the waving and whistling, they make it too chintzy. And I love the DLO!

Laurie- I was expecting to be more excited having Laurie back. I do like her beam choreography. I'd like to see her add another LOSO to her series, I think it would look beautiful. She has really good swing on the bars and is still the Stalder queen, but can she please change up the composition? Same thing as with Brenna in 2013. She changed hers! Oh, her floor. Those facial expressions! Stop them! Otherwise, such a great routine. And I love her combination front tumbling pass! I'm favoring her over Norah for the national title.

Seniors

Aly Raisman- Because there's too much to talk about in these top five just to do the podium. I still can't believe she busted out the Amanar without even training it! I think this is a good bars routine for Aly. She looks better than I remember from before. I love all the connections in her beam routine! She definitely is still steady Aly. And that Patterson!!! And ugh, her floor! The mount!! Such a ridiculous pass and she's just floating it. I'm still sad about that fall on the punch front out of the Dos Santos. I really like the DLO, and it's way better than the triple it's replacing. I just love the tumbling in this routine! Her double L spin was also amazing! Aly is just incredible and she's gunning hard for the Worlds team.

Bailie Key- Is it just me, or is her DTY not as good as when she was a junior? This was also not the Bailie I remembered on beam- what happened to the triple? It was such a pretty triple too! Definitely my favorite part of her beam was the super light leaps and jumps. That whip layout still is doing her no favors and I still want to see her change it to something different, but to no avail it seems. Smooth and steady though. Bars has somehow become Bailie's big event. She's so floaty! I especially love the Ricna+Pak. She had lovely execution. Her new floor is pretty controversial, but I love it! Even though I'm not for this whole archery choreography thing. I still think that wolf turn is butt ugly, but at least it isn't just randomly thrown in in this routine. Love this new DLO! Her tumbling is class. I don't see why everyone hates the slide so much? I think it's cool and different and suits the music and the whole style of the routine. I do wish she had a bit more of a statement ending. I'm becoming a little obsessed with Bailie's floor!

Maggie Nichols- The Amanar! She's really busting it all out. She's really made a huge improvement on bars. She's so much crisper now! I really like what she's doing with her new floor routine. I still think the choreography is a little mish-mashed, but she is really rocking it. The ending is definitely my favorite part. Her double-double is an amazing addition. Maggie has just blossomed so much in the last year.

Gabby Douglas- I'm a little underwhelmed by her DTY. She doesn't have the same explosion. However, her blocking technique seems to have improved. So that's good! Hers is another floor routine that's had controversy. I personally was not too excited about her Jesolo floor, and I think this is more up Gabby's alley. I really like the staccato parts, but I don't know about the rest of it. Her bars also leaves me underwhelmed- I don't get all that into a bunch of empty Stalder variations. Can they add some pirouettes in there? I'd love to see her Amy Chow it with that Endo on the low bar. And the piked Tkatchev+Pak! Love it! If they do something with all those Stalder variations on the low bar, I think this would be a cool routine. I still can't get over her beam! Not the same gymnast we saw in 2012! She's got so much more confidence now. And the standing full is still so upright! It's just beautiful. I really think it's sad that Gabby seems aware that haters have been doubting her comeback, and even sadder that she seems to feel the need to prove herself to them. Just another reminder that even the older gymnasts are still young. I think Gabby is going to have a harder time making Worlds than Aly, even if she keeps up her second place at Nationals. She's a great all arounder, but she doesn't have the standout events right now to push her to the forefront.

Simone Biles- What to say, really? Two sixteens, lowest score 15.1, 6.9 D score on floor, 62.4, just another day's work. Is it odd that the more she does the less I find to say? I love that she brought back the 2013 connections on bars. Her technique and form have really tightened up. Her flight is also getting really smoothed out. She seems to be prepping for another beam title. She's never had issues on the wolf turn, but that as the best she's done last night! The barani is fabulous and she strolls into it. I really am feeling this new choreography. My favorite is definitely the toe rise. I love the changes in levels and it really is one of the most artistic beam routines in the world right now. The new floor is out of this world! I honestly don't think it's quite there yet- she didn't seems to perform the whole thing all out and it felt a little empty, and the end was out of time with the music. I really liked the choreography before the double-double, though. I'll reserve judgement for Nationals. The Biles combination is easily my favorite pass of the routine. She's working her way to a near complete medal sweep at Worlds!

Favorite routines

Juniors

MY PRECIOUS BABY STAYED ON!!

She fell, but she did a Dudnik tumbling pass!

Beautiful flexibility and a mature presentation

Seniors

What the heck was up with that floor?

Right, so I'm not even going to pretend I'm intending this post to be anything other than a USA debrief, so...

Not US

• I love Marine Brevet. That is all.
• Once again, Fasana's floor is life-giving. I'm calling it, she'll be on the all-around podium at Euros. You heard it here first.
• NO not a fall on beam!! But Ellie's floor connections are still glorious.
• And NO Enus not that crash on bars!! *Sigh* I was so excited for her to turn senior last year...
• It seems to be a trend to add jumps into the leap series now. What's the point, don't they specifically not count? Not that I'm complaining; I LOVE IT!
• Double Arabian bars dismounts!!! YAS!

And now to the meat of the matter, the US (the official team only pretty much because we saw almost nothing of Desch, Shild, and Skaggs):
The Great Simone Attacks Again!: Once again, OVER 62!!! AND 15 ON EVERY EVENT!!! No 16s this time, but two 15.950s!! She tied her vault score on floor! She qualified first into every event final! She won by over TWO-AND-A-HALF points! This competition was not at home!!! Her beam was absolutely perfect except for one tiny wobble! She almost stuck that Amanar! My response to her DLO 1/1 was "Oh, come on!" because HOW DO YOU FINISH A DLO 1/1 15 FEET OUT FROM THE CORNER?! THIS is why Simone always gets called in for extra drug testing!

I've figured out why Martha always sends a team to Jesolo: I can't think of any other competition which allows federations to totally disregard the format so much. Six-person teams! But, hey, if you want to send more, go ahead, they can compete as individuals. 6-5-4 format! But sure, put up all your gymnasts in the all around, why not? Martha basically gets to do whatever the heck she wants at Jesolo, which is precisely how she likes it.

What the heck was up with that floor?: Hey, I guess Kyla decided, If I'm going to fail, I'm going to fail EPICLY. Not just a casual fall for her, no sir, she needs to fly off of the floor and almost take out the photographer in the process. Followed up by a giant bound backwards on a double pike and a caught foot in her leap series. Seriously, who possessed Kyla before the fourth rotation, because that was NOT the Kyla Ross any of us knows. Ugh, I felt that one in my soul. A bad routine for Kyla is a bad competition for me. And the curse of strange mistakes that come out of nowhere and make no sense followed Maggie Nichols as she fell setting leap. Apparently she rolled her ankle, so that's actually pretty serious. Even Simone was not immune to the floor curse as her hand slipped on her final pose and she had to finish her routine sitting instead. At least her score wasn't drastically lower as a result. Seriously, that ended up being one of the strangest floor rotations I've ever watched.

Bailie's senior debut: *Sigh* Not as awesome as we all were expecting this time last year. Not even a single event final for her, though she did come close. Stupid injury! But, for a mediocre meet, what a meet! Easily got the silver, her lowest score was 14.400, very strong routine on her "weak" event, overall clean and precise gymnastics, just beautiful work. Her bars especially stood out to me, so clean and such an incredible improvement from last year! The Ricna+Pak is splendid! Just a bit of wonkiness on her Stalder full, but overall, it left a big impression on me. Can this meet finally push KZB to ditch the BHS+BHS+layout? It totally screwed up her beam! I'm campaigning for a BHS+LOSO+LOSO, but there are plenty of options. She also really needs to ditch her wolf turns. She's not Simone or Sarah Finnegan, those are not smooth and have form issues. Plus they messed up my favorite part of her floor!

They're BAAAACK: They being Aly and Gabby, of course. Gabby's bars were a bit disappointing (the backswing from the Chow- or was it a Moloney?- cam NO WHERE near horizontal) considering, and I'm not throwing my support behind the composition, and Aly still has wonky vault form and decent-at-best bars, but oh so strong! There were bumps in the road, but those were early-in-the-season bumps in the road, not coming-back-after-two-years bumps in the road. ALY DID THE SACRED FIRST PASS!!!! And killed floor in general, hi 15.200. I was pretty impressed with her bars. They were, well, Brestyn bars, but better Brestyn bars, methinks. Love the Moloney+Tkatchev, even though the Maloney has form breaks. I really liked the Kalinka floor, she's really found her niche in folk music. We NEED to talk about Gabby on beam! She was like a different athlete. She totally went out and just killed it without holding back. Not the easily flustered inconsistent gymnast from 2012. And that perfect standing full was LIFE-GIVING! Both had good starting-point competitions. I'd love to say they shut the haters up, and they rightfully should have, but we all know the fact they didn't end 1-2 means the haters will still be running at the mouth. Alas.

Dark horses?: Like I said, we saw almost NOTHING of Skaggs and Schild (and Desch, but she's pretty much put herself out of "dark horse" territory), but they both have that potential. I think that even though she had the bigger issues, Schild has the bigger chance of shaking up the national team. She had a good bars score and has a ton of power, so I think me just might see big things from her this summer.

Alyssa's beam: Alyssa did well for herself in this competition, but her one real standout was BEAM! She was such a diva up there, absolutely nailed it. I'm thinking she wants to connect the Onodi to the aerial, which would be divine. And I loved the Arabian!

New skills/combos: Like I said earlier, I love the Ricna+Pak for Bailie! It was so beautiful! And not a fan of the wolf turns, especially on floor. Gabby's Memmel wasn't fully rotated, but I'm absolutely down with the addition! Her inbar full was also lovely. I did get a bit bored with the Stalder skills on the low bar, and I don't really see the room for upgrading (it's only 6.3, right?) Kyla's opening bars combo was killer, though I would prefer it didn't open with the toe-on. It's just there until she gets the Bhardwaj down, that's what I'm telling myself! I still like my composition I came up with earlier but whatever. I'm definitely a fan of the double front dismount! I was getting concerns with the DLO last year, and she had a nice lack of cowboying. Definitely think it was a smart move.

New floor routines: Well, obviously Aly and Gabby both have new routines. Like I said earlier, love the Kalinka for Aly! I'm not sold on Gabby's new routine, though. The music-mashing seems kind of random as does the choreography. She was working it, though. We didn't get the best view of Kyla's routine today, but I was impressed with what I saw. It seemed to have a lot of variety and was really a mature composition. I do mourn the loss of the whip-whip, though! And still four passes, bah. I also am on board with Maggie's. Some of the moments of choreography I found a bit awkward, but in general she owns the floor and just looks like she's having SO. MUCH. FUN! I hope she's back for the domestic season, I really want to see this again without the curse of strange mistakes that come out of nowhere and make no sense.

Obscenely early and unnecessary Worlds talk: Looking at just the Jesolo scores, the three highest scores on every event were earned by just five gymnasts (or six, if we're going to count Gabby with her tie on beam), Simone, Kyla, Alyssa, Bailie, and Aly, so a potential team right there. The score they would have earned would have been over 3.5 higher than the US's team score last year. Alyssa got the third-highest vault score, which was kind of surprising to me. Just super strong and unbelievable depth.