Thursday, July 7, 2016

'Twas the night before Trials

13 videos of the 7 chosen gymnasts from whom the team will 95% likely be formed were uploaded today, providing a little discussion fodder on the eve before the 2016 Hunger Games- ahem, US Olympic Team Trials Women's Gymnastics.

Simone was not shown on vault or floor, weirdly enough, only on bars and beam. Simone is Simone is Simone, she hit and was super crisp and looks totally ready. There was not a single wobble on her beam, but I'm still wary of that Barani. Her dismount was SO FLOATY!! But anyway, she's Simone and performed in typical Simone fashion, next.

So, Aly. I love the way she landed that front pike super low and then just went "wolf jump, there, what landing issue?" You can also tell she has really put in the numbers on that layout to get it to a real stretched position. At this point, I honestly don't get why it's being downgraded- heck, even at P&Gs she had to submit an inquiry for it to be recognized! Seriously, it's a layout. Her form is Aly form, but that's not the realm of the D-score. What is the reason for downgrading? But still, no controversy where she's concerned, she's a lock, next.

Laurie looked as good as she has all year on vault. It would still be optimal for her not to be used there in the team final, though, so I think that really is going to be an important event for other battles to make the team. Her beam looked absolutely gorgeous, once again. She has downgraded her dismount from a BHS+BHS combo to just a round off into her double pike, potentially giving Aly a bit more stock in the second-beamer race. And she rounds off the locks. So to the races for the other two spots.

#Mashton
From the looks of things, this race is exactly the same as it has been the whole time. Maddie's got the difficulty edge, Ashton out-executes her, and Madison does all four events while Ashton eschews vault and floor. In who-brings-the-bigger-bars-score terms, Ashton gets the spot. In what-Martha-likes terms, Madison gets the spot because she does all four events. And we all know the latter terms are stronger than the former. I would be shocked if a true specialist is named. Leaving us with...

Gabby vs. Maggie
I was in favor of Maggie over Gabby back in January, and then only picked Gabby in May when I went with an entirely different team structure which has now fallen through. So post-P&Gs, I've been consistently pro-Maggie, and that's become an increasingly popular mindset. Here's the logic: Gabby is only consistently in contributing range on bars, so it makes more sense to bring Maggie who can contribute on multiple events. This is the battle where I think vault will really come into play, as I was referring to with Laurie up there. Which is where things could get interesting, and where we might actually have gotten some insight from the videos. Both gymnasts have been making noises all year about bringing out an Amanar, and Maggie only displayed a DTY in podium training. Unless she pulls a move like Aly at Classics last year, it looks like she's not going to get an Amanar nod. If I were the one picking the team, this would be my position: if Gabby does an Amanar, she goes regardless of Maggie's vault; if Gabby doesn't do an Amanar and Maggie does, Maggie goes; if neither Gabby nor Maggie does an Amanar, battle with advantage Maggie. I do think that even with just a DTY, she could very well outscore Gabby and Laurie on vault, and if she has floor back in fighting shape, she should outscore Laurie on floor, still giving her two events with potential for the lead off bars spot if they don't want to put Simone there. However, if I really use Martha-logic, I do think Gabby has the Martha advantage because... she just seems to.

Honestly, at this point, I've got a fair bit of sympathy for Mykayla in the last spot. Her floor scores have been the same as Laurie's, but I think that's a bit of a case of Laurie getting a boost. Mykayla does have a bit an interesting tendency to score at least as well internationally while her teammates experience a slight drop. She also is, of course, the US's only other hope for a vault medal, and would neatly finish off the vault lineup. The only real downside is her inclusion would mean Simone would have to do bars in the team final, which is not Martha's preference.

I do think Martha's team is most likely going to be Simone, Aly, Laurie, Maddie, and Gabby, even if it's not one I think is the best option. But then again, we all thought we knew what she was going to do last year, and then she went and named Brenna to the team. So who can really say?

No comments:

Post a Comment