It was the best of Worlds, it was the worst of Worlds

Yeah, I'm aware I'm quite a bit late on the Worlds post game, but what with midterms and an appendicitis scare and then having to work on my extended assignments from said appendicitis scare, the post-Worlds week wasn't really open for blogging. And then, because of the neurotic person I am, I needed to get super ahead on my work when I got back into school so I wasn't having panic attacks. I'm so sorry. This was ridiculous.


My feelings about Worlds were constantly swinging between "This Worlds is a flaming trash heap" and "This Worlds is freaking awesome!!"

So much of the actual competition was breathtaking and glorious. So many of the finals came down to the wire and the gymnasts competed so much incredible gymnastics.

But the injuries. And it's not just that there were a ton of injuries. It's not like a bunch of gymnasts who had no business trying decided to bust out Prods or anything. That would have been bad and frustrating also, but ultimately it would have come down to foolish decisions. But in this case, SO MUCH of it came down to the organizers' fault. The lighting sucked, the mats were super hard (and when the athlete delegations tried to bring in softer ones the organizers refused), the PT was rushed, and the whole issue with the floor. And then, separately from the organizers but still belonging in this section, Casella pressuring Ferrari into the meet when she was clearly not ready and she snapped her Achilles.

I'm also not behind this beam scoring. There's no point in scoring so many gymnasts in the 7's in E when only two routines score above an 8 in E, they are by the same gymnast, and they are 8.133 and 8.033, respectively. That's why Tim's whole "The best should be able to do better than 1.2 in deductions" thing is valid... because otherwise, you're doing just as bad a job of differentiating the gymnasts; all the scores might as well have been .5-.7 higher, it really wouldn't have made much difference. With the two-part system, the E judges should be taking advantage of the system to use a wider range of scores and provide better differentiation, not just give most hit routines scores packed together in a lower range. In a less everything-looks-abysmal-for-no-real-necessary-reason situation, the vault final scoring also illustrated this problem. There was a .7 difference between the E scores all the non-fall vaults, and when not counting Wang Yan's weak Rudi, it was only a .5 difference. That's not what the judges are supposed to do.

And then the digital flags. No. The gymnasts deserve real flags. Have the federations provide them if you need to, it shouldn't be that hard.

However, on some other non-actual-gymnastics but kind of "controversial" discussion topics, I liked the medals! I'd way rather have a big donut medal than medals that are mostly glass like we've seen at some winter Olympics and other competitions or the really dinky ones we've seen some places. They're different and kind of fun! In addition, I thought the intros here were a bit overdone, but I like the general intro idea. It's the biggest meet of the year and these gymnasts don't get a ton of recognition for their extremely hard work and super impressive accomplishment, so make a big deal of them here!

Okay, onward to the actual competition.



The Men
The worst of Worlds: Obviously, the massacre subdivision. That was horrible. To move to a less grave aspect of the horrible subdivision, it was such an anticlimactic end to Kohei's streak. He didn't retire on his crowning gold after an eternal unbroken streak, nor was he finally toppled by a scrappy challenger, he just was taken out of competition. Oleg's exhaustion was showing by this point, and as someone who manages to delude myself into believing this will be HIS. TIME. every competition, I always end up sighing in acceptance of the inevitable. And then Yang Hak Seon injured himself right before vault. Ah. What with papers and looming midterms, I really wasn't as focused on the men, but I don't remember being too devastated by anything else. I'm sure there's something I'm forgetting, though.

The best of Worlds: KENZO!! What a lovely, lovely competitor. Gorgeous gymnast, and seems to be a wonderful man. His vaulting was life-giving! And speaking of his vaulting, the Chellsie-Nastia finish in the vault final was one of the most ridiculous things that I've witnessed since becoming a serious fan of this sport. Has any final in the two-part system had such a close finish? Both breathtaking vaulters, though in their own ways. Always what you want to see! I was also very pleased when Oleg made it to the PB podium. Always love to see him leave with a medal! Max Whitlock succeeding is also a great addition to any competition. And, of course, we need to talk about the fabulous cap to the ridiculous saves this year, Epke's hand-slip morphed into a one-arm giant! Hit. And if you can't hit, make your mistake into something memorable. Bart was all of us in this moment! And speaking of Bart, I was also a major fan of him getting the authorities to check the floor and then... not taking his second opportunity to go. You win! I know it was for rational reasons, but it's still mighty amusing.



Women's Qualifications
Obviously, the injuries here (Larisa!!) were the down side. As well as almost the entire competitive beam field imploding. I wanted Sanne to add a World title to her Olympic one! Qualifications was less of a massacre for the women than the men, though, so that was an improvement. It was just hard to get out of the shadow of men's sub 3. Other than the Lari injury and beam implosions, not too much noteworthy happened in women's quals. I think the only other real exciting thing was JAPAN!! They are coming to slay this quad, and I am ready.


Womens' AA
The worst of Worlds: Once again, the biggest disappointment was Ragan busting a tendon in her ankle moments before competition. I think we were all pulling for her here, even those who weren't really interested in seeing her on the podium. In addition, there were of course a number of falls which no one wanted. I think it's reasonable to say the biggest of those was MAI!! Ugh, she had such a great day otherwise. And then Melka's floor was also really unhappy, too.

The best of Worlds: On the other side of Ragan's injury, it was good to see Ioana Crisan handle being thrown into the final at the very last second so well. Also, the competition was so tense and exciting! It was exactly the opposite of how competitions with Biles were exciting, and I really got into it! Of course, seeing Morgan win was like Christmas coming early. Her gymnastics was lovely and her joy was infectious! And even though the other two medalists did have large errors, they were also able to continue the streak of no-fall podiums! From only 2008 until 2013 to five years straight, I'm really appreciating this turn-around. There were also so many gymnasts tying or breaking their country's record for best finish! I loved all the big gymnastics we got to see, with Lena and Nina on bars, Tabea on beam, Mai on floor... it was full of big moments. Of course, we all want a final with all top-level competitors where everyone hits, but sometimes this kind of tension is what you can have.

I'm happy with this outcome. Obviously, Morgi winning was all I really wanted. I do think her floor score was a little cooked compared to Ellie's, but Ellie's everything else was a little cooked, so it evened out, and I think the more deserving gymnast won. It's not the best thing, but sometimes, in gymnastics, two wrongs do make a right. I also like Elena in third, and was pleased to see her do so well. Of course, it was annoying that Mai would have won without her fall, but the ones who did the best came out on top.


Womens' VT
The worst of Worlds: Overall, this was one of the more generally positive finals. Sae's and Shallon's falls were rather gnarly, but ultimately both gymnasts were okay after, so it was only disappointing in terms of performance and not depressing like a lot of the other disappointments. The judging was also rather screwy and failed in the job of, you know, actually differentiating the athletes (what?).

The best of Worlds:One of the biggest positives that stuck in my mind from this final was Chuso's vaulting! I love how she was able to clean up so much AT FORTY-TWO! May she never leave us. I also loved seeing Giulia do so well after such a short return, Jade's wonderful form and power, and while Wang Yan doesn't always have the strongest and cleanest vaults, I do appreciate how she doesn't terrify me so many vaulters frequently can. And while Bee Farm's vaulting isn't the nicest, it was good to see her hit when her back was basically taped together. Should we be begging Russia to stop encouraging her to compete at this point? I think so.

As for the result, I would have been okay with any combination of the medalists. I think if I was picking the podium, I would have done 1. Jade, 2. Giulia, 3. Masha, but I have no real complaints about the actual result either. Sometimes in gymnastics, multiple placing permutations are equally valid, and sometimes it comes down to a closer result but the outcome is more definite. Such is our wacky sport. Ultimately, while all the medalists had strong-enough performances, no one here really had a champion-worthy performance. Jade would have had it not been for that landing, and it's completely legitimate that she gave away the title there. Hopefully we'll see her back with a stronger hit in the next years (and an upgrade-- that Amanar is way too easy for her! she could legit get the TTY!)


Womens' UB
The worst of Worlds: Obviously, the big negative (in athlete performance) here was Ashton's... well, I hate to use sensationalist language on here in reference to a bad performance, but her meltdown. I mean, that's a routine she can do in her sleep! And apparently she exacerbated a shoulder injury, and finished her routine through tears. I felt so bad for her! She had been so crapped on in the lead-up to Worlds and then that had to happen. And the biggest downside of the final was the pettiness after. What ridiculous nonsense to be pillorying gymnasts for. And with the targets, people were definitely just looking to attack. "Ashton crying was unreasonable if she wasn't injured!" Seriously, calm down. And then the Nina issue. Yes, how dare she smile to herself when she realizes she just won Belgium's first World medal. Yet no one seems to mind how everyone was hugging the floor medalists while Vanessa was still on the ground being attended to by the med staff. Nope, no hypocrisy here at all. Not picking and choosing who to hate based on our already held biases, never. Some people in this fandom just really need to grow up.
Okay, gymternet rant over.

The best of Worlds: Onward to what I loved. Because outside of the Ashton sadness, this is probably my favorite bars final. Maybe with 2015 as an exception, because that was hilarious and all kinds of magical and had basically no falters, but I LOVE the style of bars we saw in this final. All I really cared about going in was that Elena, Anastasia, Nina, and Diana hit, and I got that. (Well, there was the Shang thing in Iliankova's routine, but details.) So many unique and gutsy combinations with big releases! So many connections combining multiple categories of skills! These are the bars routines we deserve! (Actually they're probably more than we deserve, tbh.) I seriously don't get how people are complaining current bars routines are boring? Are we watching the same competitions? They're so breathtaking!

So yeah, I was paying zero attention to scoring, so... Lena and Ilya wur robbed!!!!11! Fan shouldn't have medalled!!1!111! (I seriously have no legitimate opinion here. I paid NO ATTENTION to such trivial things as "quality".)


Womens' BB
The worst of Worlds: This was certainly one of the less bad beam finals we've had at this level in a long time, but there were still spots of sadness. Of course, no one wants to see the falls. I was especially sad to see Teramoto fall when I wanted her to get vindication for her fourth in 2014. I was less sad about Ellie's fall because she didn't seem too upset after medaling in AA, but she can be such a powerhouse here that I would have liked to have seen her hit the way she can, and she would have had a chance for a medal. And of course, it was sad to see Mai in fourth again. And while it wasn't as bad as some have been, it also didn't really have any super great routines either. There were a lot of falters.

The best of Worlds:But PAULINE WON YOU GUYS!! We of course had to deal with the tragedy of Sanne not qualifying, but one of the two I wanted to return to the podium was able to walk away with the title! She is such a gorgeous beam worker, and one of the few who has real choreography which added genuine artistic quality to the routine. It was also great to see Tabea able to pick up a second medal for Germany. I would love to see Germany put themselves at the top! And of course, MORGI! I'm loving this new steady Morgan we're seeing. Elena coming through and finishing off her competition with no falls and all hit beam routines was also super exciting, and I'm really looking forward to what she'll do for the Russian program.

I don't think there's too much controversy here. I've seen just a very little claim of robbing on Elena's part from Russia stanning, and I'm sure you'll find the same for Morgan, but that's just the fringes. I'm with what seems to be the consensus from what I've seen, which is being fine with the outcome.


Womens' FX
The worst of Worlds: Of course, with the bad, we need to talk about Vanessa. I, like everyone, am furious with Casella. One of the few injuries here that was actually the fault of decision-making on the part of the athlete team. And his manipulation to get her to go for difficulty she wasn't ready for yet. He appeared to be literally the only person who didn't see what a stupid decision he was pushing her to. When I watched the final, I was just thinking "Well at least Vanessa's got an epic routine to go out on", and then that happened. Absolutely shameful. I really don't think I can say much else negative about this final, but what a terrible negative it was.

The best of Worlds: MAI! MAI MAI MAI!! She finally got her Worlds medal. And what fabulous vindication for when she was robbed in 2013. It's such a fantastic total package routine. Speaking of total package routines, Brooklyn Moors is also how lovely. I'm not sure why, but I didn't have the same adoration for this routine until the last time I watched it yesterday, and... why? It's gorgeous. And the Podkopayeva! The difficult and intricate front tumbling! THE SEMENOVA! Lovely, lovely, lovely. And speaking of the Canadians, I also appreciated seeing Ellie Black again in this floor final. She may have stumbled, but I just love her floor work. Jade's tumbling was gorgeous. I could watch those passes on loop. Of course her artistry is quite lacking, but I think people are a bit over the top where criticizing her is concerned. No, it's not good. But her choreography has a fair enough correlation to the music, and she does it cleanly. I do hope we see good improvement there. It's her one barrier to being a total package floor worker. I also love the new Claudia we saw here. Her stumble on the first run was disappointing, but she's cleaned up A LOT. While I loved her old choreographies, she's like a whole new performer and it's fab. Another floor worker I love.

I loved this podium! Mai finally winning, Jade's gorgeous tumbling getting rewarded, and CLAUDIA MEDALLED! However, I really wouldn't have hated it if Thais had medalled ahead of Frags. Frags is one of my favorite on floor, but... there was that stumble.

Favorite Routines of the Quad: Bars

Aliya Mustafina, 2013 Worlds AA

Gotta love the Seitz and the Mustafina dismount. That's one of those things you've just gotta love about Aliya, how she'll just pull out a randomly different routine every now and then to keep you on your toes. And as always, the classic Aliya swing.

Roxana Popa, 2014 Blume Memorial

Oh, how I miss pre-hey-your-ACL-is-torn-by-the-way Roxana. Her bars work especially was super exciting, and all the connections in this routine just make it so dynamic. There's just so much flight and movement between the bars in this routine! And the inbar Geinger in its pure form.

Rebecca Tunney, 2014 Europeans EF

Long live the Church+Bhardwaj! There's just so much flight and not a second of wasted time in her routine.

Lisa Katharina Hill, 2014 Stuttgart World Cup

Another routine with a Bhardwaj- unique transition work is a pretty sure-fire way to get on this list! I also love her long combination into the Gienger combining pirouettes, transitions, and different kinds of circling elements. There's just so much variety in this routine!

Brenna Dowell, 2014 P&Gs, Day 1

There is just so much in this routine! I'm a fan of everything but the kitchen sink bars routines, and I love how much variety and excitement she is able to pack in. All of the combinations are just amazing, and the Tweddle+Ezhova especially!

Amelia Hundley, 2015 Pan Ams EF

I just really love the way Meals works bars. I find there to be something Aliya-esque in her swing. She never seems to be fighting with the apparatus, and it almost seems as if time has slowed slightly while she performs.

Shang Chunsgong, 2015 Worlds TF

You've just gotta love a good ol' release fest. And it's especially nice with Shang's gorgeous eponymous skill. I also like that she's got some good ol' pretty Chinese one-armed pirouettes going. I was never a pirouette fest fan, but I do wish they hadn't disappeared so much. Shang's issue on bars is her swing can sometimes be a bit labored, but that wasn't a problem here.

Fan Yilin, 2015 Worlds EF

Such a difficult routine and so well done. Lots of movement between the bars, pirouettes, and a great inbar Gienger! Definitely my favorite of the reigning world champions.

Becky Downie, 2016 Europeans EF

So many fabulous releases and combinations! And with Becky's beautiful presentation to top it off. This is a monster of a routine. The Chow+Shang is so breathtaking, but then, so is everything else in this routine.

Jessica Lopez, 2016 Sao Paulo World Cup EF

So many inbar Giengers this quad! One thing I love about JLo's bars is how she works and turns through inverted grip. And her lovely open Jaeger! I also love her double front, there's just something so compact about it.

Ruby Harrold, 2015 Worlds EF

And my favorite UB routine to end! Both a Maloney+Bhardwaj and a Van Leeuwen+Zuchold. The Zuchold is just the ultimate of cool transitions (which, in case you can't tell by now, I'm a sucker for). Not pristine, but just plain cool.

Fantasy Rio Podiums

Just for some fun before the Games! I'm not going to include the US for the team podium or Simone for any individual podiums, partly because it's too crowded already, partly because it's just not quite as fun when one of the people/teams on the fantasy podium is already super dominant and expected to do as well anyway. So they can get diamond-encrusted medals (would they technically be nonmedals?- okay, I'll put away my chemistry nerd puns now). Also, if I include a gymnast who is just total fantasy and not expected to be even close to the podium, I'll put a more realistic fantasy medalist in parentheses underneath.

Team
1. Great Britain
2. Brazil
3. Germany
Can you tell I love my underdog teams? I'm seriously pulling for a bronze upset, and I think there's a really good possibility it will happen!

All Around
1. Rebeca Andrade
2. Laurie Hernandez/Aly Raisman
3. Shang Chunsong
(Giulia Steingruber)
Even with the ACL hiatus, I have remained a devoted Rebeca fan. I really hope she can shine alongside Flavia! Shang came so close last time, and with her great gymnastics and sportsmanship and her life situation, it would just be so wonderful for her to finally medal individually!

Vault
1. Giulia Steingruber
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Marcia Videaux
Giulia has been so close to the top for so long, and she's done nothing but get better. I just love her vaulting, and it would be so great for her to do well! Also, she and Marcia both get nods for not doing strictly round off-entry vaults. And Hong of the weightless Amanar!

Uneven Bars
1. Ruby Harrold
2. Becky Downie
3. Fan Yilin
(Shang Chunsong)
Ruby's bars continue to be my favorite, and the new connection is just fabulous! But she is not a likely medalist at all. Becky medaling is my #1 hope for the UB final! Both the Chinese have fabulous routines, but Fan's is just smoother.

Balance Beam
Alright, so I'm copping out on beam. I'm way too emotionally invested in the beam podium (what a great final to be super emotionally invested in) and though I try to be as un-superstitious as possible, I'm not going to jinx an already beamy final. So I'm doing my dream podium of the gymnasts not likely in the medal hunt.
1. Eythora Thorsdottir
2. Vasiliki Millousi
3. Pauline Schaefer
Three gorgeous beam beauties. I love all of their unique skill sets and choreography!

Floor
1. Claudia Fragapane
2. Aly Raisman
3. Erika Fasana
There are too many gymnasts I love on floor this year. No, no Giulia on my dream podium. I love her on floor, but I'm not a fan of her current routine. Claudia winning a major floor medal is a huge dream of mine. Aly's tumbling is so great, and I just love how she has improved her presentation since last quad! And I just love Erika as a floor performer.

May Rio Predictions

Now that the Test Event has passed and the US have presented all their top gymnasts (who aren't injured), I'm going to do predictions again. Because it's the Olympic year, and why not do predictions a bunch of times?

USA Team
Simone Biles, Gabby Douglas, Aly Raisman, Brenna Dowell, Laurie Hernanadez
VT: (Hernandez) Douglas, Dowell, Biles
UB: (Biles) Douglas, Hernandez, Dowell
BB: (Douglas) Raisman, Hernandez, Biles
FX: (Douglas) Hernandez, Raisman, Biles
I was still holding out for Norah, but the Classics list has been released and she's still not on the roster, which is not good news. Yes, I included Dowell. Get used to predictions that seem to be a bit optimistic, because this will not be the last. I mean really, why not go for your I-mean-it-could-happen predictions in an ultimately inconsequential blog post? But seriously, if she can get the Amanar back and prove that the fall in the Pac Rims EF was just a fluke, she will be a tough asset to leave home. So, Brenna darling, do us a favor and get the Amanar back, okay? I'm sure it can't be all that hard (sarcasm, if I didn't make that obviously clear enough). This is one ridiculous floor team.

China Team
Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Mao Yi, Liu Tingting, Tan Jiaxin
VT: (Shang) Liu, Tan, Mao
UB: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Fan
BB: (Mao) Liu, Shang, Fan
FX: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Mao
I know China already named their team, but I really just think Tan Jiaxin makes a much smarter team member than Wang Yan. Ultimately, they have an awesome mix of ladies who are extremely well-suited to a six-person team, which makes things annoying here. China has, somewhat shockingly, come to a place where Wang Yan isn't necessary for either their vault or floor lineups. And Liu's higher beam consistency and AA potential give her higher stock than Wang Yan, in my opinion.

GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Rebecca Tunney
VT: (Tunney) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Fragapane) E Downie, Tunney, B Downie
BB: (Tunney) Fragapane, E Downie, B Downie
FX: (Tunney) Tinkler, E Downie, Fragapane
Whelp, Catherine Lyons is inheriting the can't-stay-healthy-for-more-than-a-week curse, and Tyesha, who I really wanted to go for UB and BB, has had it all along, so curtains for both of them. But guess who has surfaced again? Rebecca Tunney! So please let this not curse her to be an invalid, too.

Russia Team
Angelina Melnikova, Maria Kharenkova, Aliya Mustafina, Ksenia Afanasyeva, Maria Paseka
VT: (Kharenkova) Melnikova, Afan, Paseka
UB: (Tutkhalyan) Melnikova, Paseka, Mustafina
BB: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Afan
I'm holding to my prediction that Vika will not be back to compete this season and Aliya will be relegated to two events, thanks to the curse of VRod. Melka has been absolutely on fire so far, so hopefully she can take a spot and run with it. Kharenkova has shown herself to be a surprisingly good option so far, doing well on beam in all phases of the competition and putting up respectable floor scores in two (well, a 14.900 is certainly more than respectable, but also steering rather determinedly toward the ridiculous) at Russian Champs, and she did well at Osijek on beam also.

Brazil Team
Flavia Saraiva, Jade Barbosa, Lorraine Oliveira, Rebeca Andrade, Daniele Hypolito
VT: (Saraiva) Oliveira, Barbosa, Andrade
UB: (Barbosa) Oliveira, Saraiva, Andrade
BB: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
FX: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
Andrade is baaaaack!! This is a really well-balanced team, and they look poised to do amazing things!


Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Russia
GB
Brazil
Canada
Germany
Japan

Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Brazil
Yep. Brazil. I did it. I told you there were predictions in this that verge away from the strictly realistic. They completely rocked the house at the test event, so it seems home crowd support really does carry them. I mean, they got a higher score than China did in qualifications at Glasgow! I'm pulling for them, blindly, some might say. And I have the US and China 1-2 because of course.


All Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Gabby Douglas
3. Angelina Melnikova
Larisa is looking not to be at ideal condition to be earning an Olympic ticket, and I want her to get it so badly, but because NOTHING can go right for Romania at the moment, I'm not holding my breath. Cata is going. I'm working on accepting it. And if Larisa can get the spot, then good surprise for me. But anyway, all that to say: I'm predicting Vika, Aliya, and Larisa are out, leaving things a bit sparse at the top. But once again, Melka has been on fire, so she shall swoop in to claim the open spot!


Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Hong Un Jong
Maria Paseka
Ellie Downie
Giulia Steingruber
Dipa Karmaker
Marcia Videux
Alexa Moreno

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Maria Paseka
Biles has gotten the Cheng! Let the world rejoice! She shall finally reign vault! And Hong Un Jong must place higher than Maria Paseka- please!


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Fan Yilin
Shang Chunsong
Elisabeth Seitz
Sophie Scheder
Becky Downie
Brenna Dowell
Gabby Douglas

Podim:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Shang Chunsong
3. Elisabeth Seitz
Another pretty stacked deck. Bars has been ridiculous this quad. Fan unveiled the 7.0 D-score routine, and, oddly enough, she's the only world champion from last year who I predict will return to defend her title, so the chances are looking pretty promising for her to validate my desires and claim the Olympic title. Aliya needs to add something more to her basic routine to medal again, which I would be 100% behind. Shang NEEDS a medal from a high competition, and fortunately, she's looking to be toward the forefront of this pack. And for the final spot (assuming Aliya sticks with basic), I want it to go to Downie, but she's too inconsistent to be a strong pick.


Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Laurie Hernandez
Sanne Wevers
Pauline Schaefer
Liu Tingting
Flavia Saraiva
Shang Chunsong
Maria Kharenkova

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Laurie Hernandez
3. Flavia Saraiva
Fortunately, with some gymnasts becoming markedly more consistent this year, it looks like this year's beam final might be a significant improvement from last year's. Flava Flav (did I make this up myself? because I was pretty sure it was a common nickname when I started using it but I don't actually see it anywhere...) is an example of one of those who has blessedly improved her consistency. The Americans look good to be consistent as well. And then there's the predictions I refuse to make for reasons....


Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Giulia Steingruber
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Claudia Fragapane
Ellie Downie

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Ksenia Afanasyeva
I had Flavia making the final in January, but the mythical 6.3 routine appears to be nowhere in sight, so I must pass now. This podium pick feels obvious and boring to me, but there's nothing else I really see happening either, so... Can Claudia get a medal? Because I just really want that to happen.

January Rio Predictions

Teams Qualifying at the Test Event
Romania
Brazil
Australia
Belgium


USA Team
Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, Maggie Nichols, Norah Flatley, Maddie Kocian
VT: (Flatley) Raisman, Nichols, Biles
UB: (Biles) Nichols, Flately, Kocian
BB: (Nichols) Raisman, Biles, Flatley
FX: (Flatley) Nichols, Raisman, Biles
Yeah, I know there are a ton of conspiracy theories about how the Attack Cup competitors are the ones up for second AA and so Raisman is off the team and yada yada yada, but unless another Amanar pops up from a top competitor (or another 6.0+ D score vault, the blogger mentions dutifully) or Mykayla Skinner suddenly becomes impossible to leave home, the Biles-Nichols-Raisman trifecta is definitely going. If the Amanar (and/or the Mykayla) situation does change though, it's a free-for-all and everyone have fun playing Martha because it's going to be one exciting ride. I've had a feeling that at least one new senior would make the team, and Norah's been training some awesome bars skills that could make her a UB-BB specialist that would fit the team perfectly. If the Amanar situation changes, I'm also calling Ragan Smith as a dangerous one- I could totally see her snatching up Aly's spot if the Amanar isn't her golden ticket.

China Team
Yao Jinnan, Shang Chunsong, Wang Yan, Fan Yilin, Liu Tingting
VT: (Shang Chunsong) Yao Jinnan, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan
UB: (Liu Tingting) Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Yao Jinnan
BB: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
FX: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
I definitely think this seems like the most balanced Chinese team in forever. Of course, this relies on Yao Jinnan being back in the AA, so if she's not things will shuffle. But even then, I don't think the 3-person lineups should be in too dire a state. Lots of gymnasts up on three events on this team, but still a good depth pool for them if someone falls apart either mentally or physically between now and Rio, I think.

GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Tyesha Mattis
VT: (Mattis) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
BB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
FX: (Mattis) Tinkler, Fragapane, E Downie
It feels so wrong not putting Catherine Lyons on this team seeing as she's basically been groomed for it the whole quad, but with Amy, Claudia, and Ellie, she'd only compete on bars and beam in the final, and Mattis is easily the better UB-BB specialist. If she just stays in one piece this year...

Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Angelina Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan, Daria Spiridonova
VT: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Afan, Bee Farm
UB: (Melnikova) Bee Farm, Mustafina, Spiridonova
BB: (Spiridonova) Afan, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan
With VRod's naming the 4-person core in 2015, she of course curse it not to happen. Since Vika is Vika and can never stay uninjured for more than one month at a time, I'm predicting she's off, and because VRod is VRod and whenever she opens her mouth nothing good can happen, I'm predicting Aliya's out for the AA. The weak link of this team is floor. Beam is a good and relatively nerve-free lineup for Russia (assuming Afan is doing beam next year), but of course it's Russia and it's beam, so that may end up being a weak spot as well. But in terms of how strong the events are, floor is the weaker.

Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Diana Bulimar, Laura Jurca, Catalina Ponor, Andreea Ciurusniuc
VT: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
UB: (Jurca) Ciurusniuc, Bulimar, Iordache
BB: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
FX: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
I want Izbasa back on the team, but news on her training has been spotty and she wan't put on the Olympic training squad, if I do recall correctly. It is a bit depressing to bring Ciurusniuc as a bars specialist, but Iridon is allergic to the apparatus and she's one of their best options. Bulimar could also go up for Jurca on either beam or floor. Ah, Romania is in a sad state.



Team
Finalists:
USA
Russia
China
Romania
Great Britain
Japan
Canada
Brazil

Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
The USA is the obvious pick and it will be a huge upset if they don't win, so moving on to the more exciting material. Romania looks to be ending their team-medal-at-every-Olympics streak. While I think they're looking not to be in the same extremely dangerous state this year, the rest of the Big Four and some top other nations look to be outstripping them fairly easily again for Rio. I think they'll be somewhere in the 4-6 range. The competition for the silver between China and Russia should be very exciting, with both having good depth years across the events, but I think China will maintain their silver streak due to some Russian shakiness on beam and floor. I also think GB has a good shot at the podium, though they have an uphill climb, and I think the other three might get closer to a medal than we're expecting.


All-Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Maggie Nichols
3. Larisa Iordache
I feel like I'm jinxing Simone not to complete her quad-long reign by this, but who else am I really to predict? Though I think Maggie could very well be on the chopping block for the team depending on who is suddenly wonderful this year, if she goes she is a very strong shot for the podium. Larisa is another obvious pick. Without Aliya or Vika, I don't really see much competition for these three, but if my doomsday predictions don't pan out, they could spice things up nicely.


Vault
Finalists:
Hong Un Jong
Simone Biles
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Ellie Downie
Afan
Marcia Vidaeux

Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Bee Farm
3. Simone Biles
I'm not holding my breath for the Cheng this year (but maybe?) Anyway, I'm thinking Hong Un Jong is going to pull ahead of Bee Farm this year. Not much change from last year.


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Daria Spiridonova
Aliya Mustafina
Maddie Kocian
Fan Yilin
Yao Jinnan
Becky Downie
Sophie Scheder
Simone Biles/Norah Flatley

Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Yao Jinnan
3. Daria Spiridonova
I feel like Yao Jinnan might be the more prudent gold-medal pick, but I want it to be Fan Yilin, so I went with her anyway. I'm expecting it to be China-China-Russia, regardless of the combination of gymnasts. Yeah, I have Simone potentially making it. she was two-pered last year, don't forget!


Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Norah Flatley
Larisa Iordache
Liu Tingting
Shang Chunsong
Aliya Mustafina
Ellie Black
Pauline Schaefer

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Norah Flatley
3. Aliya Mustafina
Again, I'm going with safe options for the podium. I'm expecting beam to be a bit more Big Four-heavy than in Glasgow. I'm again expecting Larisa to have some mishap keeping her from the podium. Simone comes in again with the obvious upper hand, but I think Norah has some potential for a challenge in her as well. I think Pauline Schaefer is going to just squeak in for the final. I was debating putting in Liu Tingting for the bronze, and I'd like to see it happen. And hopefully more gymnasts than not will have routines without major errors? I know, we haven't seen it in a while, but I think this group has it in them. I believe!


Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Afan
Claudia Fragapane
Flavia Saraiva
Larisa Iordache
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Flavia Saraiva
Yeah, I'm predicting Flava-flav for the final (and the podium, apparently!) She's apparently got a 6.3 routine in the works, and she's the kind of gymnast the judges love, so I see her making it in. As for on the podium, I was going to put Raisman there, but I just kind of felt like someone unexpected would medal on floor, and Flavia was the most unexpected of the gymnasts I predicted to final. So I put her there. I think this will be a pretty competitive final- aside from Simone, everyone is at a fairly equal playing field. I also think there are others at about the same level outside this group, so it should be fun to watch the fight to make it in. I'm really looking forward to this one!

The Weirdest Worlds EVER!

Yeah, I know I'm about a week after what could be considered reasonable timing for this post, but The Gymternet just started post-Worlds coverage as has The Couch Gymnast, so I feel justified in that.

The Good Surprises

• SANNE WEVERS HAS A WORLD BEAM MEDAL!!!!
• Great Britain got a team medal on both sides
• Brenna Dowell has officially competed at a World Championships and got the pike double front named after her with only the clapping of the audience as her track
• Sanne Wevers got a SILVER on BEAM
• The Netherlands qualified directly to Rio!! And were represented in three individual finals.
• Shang Chunsong is suddenly a beast
• Gabby won the AA silver
• Vika didn't fall of the beam in a major international event final.
• Farah Ann Abdul Hadi earned a higher AA total than either of the "Belorussians."
• Did I mention Sanne Wevers is A WORLD MEDALIST ON BEAM?

The Bad Surprises

• Romania only qualifying in 13th. If the Tokyo qualifying rules were implemented this quad, they wouldn't be going to Rio.
• On the flip-side of the Netherlands qualifying to the final, Brazil was SO CLOSE!
• Flava-Flav coming in dead last in the AA final.
• Aly not making a single individual final.
• Brenna falling twice on her UB routine (though admittedly, that can't be considered too shocking)
• Only one Russian in the AA final
• Simone grabbed the beam and landed her sisone in the red in the AA final

The Just Weird

• Russia was laughing and smiling after coming in fourth?
• Russia had fewer falls in qualifications than the US?
• Simone was 2-per-ed out of the UB final with China benefiting?
• There was a FOUR-WAY TIE?

The Top 5 Weirdest Things That Happened:

5. China benefited from an American being 2-per-ed out of the UB final

4. Simone had two big errors in the AA final

3. Russia was more consistent than the US in qualifications

2. Great Britain won the team bronze

1. A FOUR-WAY TIE

Team: The competition for second through fourth was amazing. The US, China, and Great Britain all had pretty much the best competition they could reasonably expect, so it was great to see them rewarded for it. It was also very exciting to see Canada sneaking up the rankings in a couple of rounds! And we had the Netherlands making everything pretty, even if they didn't catch lightning in a bottle like they did in qualification. I think Russia seemed a bit cavalier, and Seda was the only one who really seemed to care about their performance. But it was nice to see them take it in stride.

All Around: It's so disappointing that Simone had such big errors, but she still managed to get her highest score of a Worlds all around final yet! Ridiculous! Someone made the point that Simone tends to peak earlier in the season, so hopefully that is a good sign for next year. Larisa's fight to the podium was so wonderful! She's the first from outside the top group to make the podium in years, and it was such a triumphant victory! Speaking of gymnasts coming from outside the top group, so many of them were able to climb the rankings this year! Half of the gymnasts in the top eight who get recognized were from lower-ranked groups, and three of the top ten were from the bottom group! Unfortunately, the scores needed to get into the AA final were quite high, and they weren't sustained in the final itself, but the fluidity of the placements between qualifications and the final still shows a good competition. And to round of the medalists, we have Gabby. Long may she reign. She proved herself so well at these Worlds even after a rough training.

Vault: I'm of the mind that Hong Un Jong was the rightful winner of this one. But I also just love her vaulting. It's also disappointing that Simone wasn't able to win because of her lower difficulty when she has such superior technique and execution. When will she upgrade? But either way, this was by far the most exciting vault final in a long time! The podium was so close! Also, I just love Ellie Downie's vaulting. I would not be at all surprised to see her with upgrades next year, she's got such great power and technique. Giulia's injury was horrible, but at least she's supposed to be in fairly decent shape and not too badly injured. Ah, I miss the final last year when no one was injured.

Uneven Bars: Oh my goodness, THIS FINAL! No falls, and a FOUR-WAY TIE! It's too bad about Sophie Scheder messing up her dismount, but it is nice to know that that was the biggest error of the final. I think we can all pretty much agree that Spiridonova and Kocian were not on the same level as Fan Yilin and Vika. But here's my perspective: Fan Yilin and Vika won the gold anyway. So while it wasn't necessarily the most accurate judging, when the gymnasts who were overscored didn't affect the placing of the gymnasts who were better anyway, why can't we just appreciate the fact that we witnessed a four-way tie and gymnastics history? It's not like four-way ties are going to become a common thing. With the exception of Scheder's dismount, everyone had a great routine in this final, and it will definitely be one I'll watch over and over again as the years go by. And ruby made it with her wonderful routine!

Balance Beam: SANNE WEVERS WON THE SILVER! My delusional dream is now a reality! And so nothing else that happened in this final makes me at all unhappy. Honestly, it was better than I was worried it might be. With this group of eight gymnasts, who would stay on was seriously a crap shoot. I was going into this final with the mindset that Simone would be the only gymnast to stay on just because that was a legitimate possibility and I didn't want to get my hopes up. So honestly, I'm pleased with four of them staying on. Also, Pualine Schaerffer got a medal for Germany and that was so wonderful! And Vika didn't fall in a major international beam final, so that's more than could have been expected. So yeah, this final was pretty bad, but I wasn't expecting better. And Sanne medalled! So I really can't look at this final with any objectivity or any disappointment that anything else happened. She could have been the only one to stay on and I would have been happy.

Floor: I still haven't seen this final in whole: I missed the beginning of the final as I tried to get the mobile stream up, and I couldn't watch the last four routines with music because I was watching it in public. However, I have seen all of the routines (with music) at this point, though I still don't have a great perspective on it. No falls! The only World floor final this quad with not a single fall! Simone obviously was the deserving champion, she put on her usual awesome display. As to the debate over the bronze (and silver?) medals, my opinion is that Maggie, Sae, and Shang all had routines of pretty much the same quality, and so whoever took the bronze took it rightfully. It's sad, but true: sometimes a medal could go more than one way. Also, overall, the E scores were pretty high in this final, which was nice to see. And who doesn't like just watching Lieke's routine?

My favorite final: Bars. Only one major error which wasn't even that big comparatively and a four-way tie. This is one of my favorite finals of all time.

My least favorite final: Beam. Though, as I said earlier, I'm still not that unhappy with it. Sanne!

Overall, I really enjoyed these Worlds. The competition was generally pretty strong and so much unexpected happened! And there were people who thought this Worlds was boring.

Worlds Predictions

'Tis the season!!!

Team:
Top 16 (*Finalists):
USA*
China*
Russia*
Romania*
Japan*
Great Britain*
Italy*
Brazil*
Germany
Canada
Australia
Netherlands
France
Mexico
Belgium
South Korea

Podium:
1. USA
2. Russia
3. China

Obviously, the US is going to win. Anyone who doubts that at all is delusional. Valentina would have to Tanya Harding them all for something else to happen. I think Russia's team this year, even without Aliya (honestly, I like this team a lot better without her- not sure why, I'm not a big fan of Vika or Bee Farm and I really do like Aliya), has the most evenly distributed ability of the rest. But if their beam rotation is a bomb, they could open the door. I do think Japan will outscore Romania. Their team average for this year is actually higher than China's, and though that's pretty much due solely to the most outrageous domestic overscoring this year, I'd still LOVE to see them on the podium.



All Around:
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Aly Raisman

Even though her highest AA score is of the season is the third highest of the non-Simone US AAers, I still think she'll get the second spot. If not, just swap her out for whichever American makes it. Even though Simone said Maggie's not the alternate, I'm still accepting her as such until we have an official announcement otherwise, so I think it'll be between Aly and Gabby. With Yao and Aliya out (and Rebeca Andrade), there's pretty much no other competition for the podium. I just feel so gutted doing these predictions right now with no Rebeca to surprise for the podium.



Vault:
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Hong Un Jong
Marcia Videux
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Alexa Moreno

Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Simone Biles
3. Maria Paseka

This one should be really close. Vault was so stagnant and this quad it's suddenly become so exciting! Now that Simone's been sticking Amanars, she really could outdo Hong Un Jong, but I just love her floaty Amanar so whatever. Also, word on the street is that Mykayla beat Simone on vault at camp, so there's that. Bee Farm has cleaned up a fair bit since the last time she made a vault final and added a Cheng, so she's really upped her game. And Marcia and Giulia would both be fabulous- and plausible- medalists. Three fourths of gymnasts in this final could legitimately medal. And that's awesome.



Bars:
Finalists:
Fan Yilin
A second Chinese gymnast
Daria Spiridonova
Vika
Elisabeth Seitz
Sophie Scheder
Maddie Kocian
Yuki Uchiyama

Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Daria Spiridonova
3. Vika

This final is far too small. A 12 or even 16 person final would be much better for exhibiting the top bars talented. No one's really been dominating the top of the field, let alone my choice for the gold medal, but I think these three are the safest bets. I definitely think Spiridoz will leave with a medal. This will be a pretty exclusive final. And I'm so ready for it!



Beam:
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Larisa Iordache
Sakura Yumoto
Ellie Black
Flava Flav
Maria Kharenkova
Shang Chunsong

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Sakura Yumoto

Well, this one's a crap shoot. There have been a lot of stunning one-off performances this year (PAULINE SCHAEFER) that I don't expect to be repeated at Worlds. Alas. I've picked Shang for gold the last two years and just given up at this point. I've also given up on predicting Larisa will stay on. Or Maria. I made my pick because I trust those three not to fall the most. Literally everyone else I'm expecting to. Maybe the trick is just to expect them to fall? Flava Flav always makes it into the final, she just falls once she gets there. Ellie is the only one I didn't pick for the podium who I'll hold out hope for staying on. And then if anyone else doesn't fall, it'll be a pleasant surprise.



Floor:
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Larisa Iordache
Afan
Sae Miyakawa
Claudia Fragapane
Erika Fasana
Giulia Steingruber

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Larisa Iordache

Yet another floor title to Simone. A fall is literally the only mistake that could keep her from this one. Aly is back and better than ever, and a hit routine should clinch a medal for her. Larisa is great as always, but I think the other two have an edge on her. Afan either wins or doesn't medal, so she's off the podium. If Sae Miyakawa busts out the best she's got, she's the only other one who can challenge, methinks. But the other three are awesome. So it should be an enjoyable enough final even if it isn't as competitive as vault of bars.