Fantasy Rio Podiums

Just for some fun before the Games! I'm not going to include the US for the team podium or Simone for any individual podiums, partly because it's too crowded already, partly because it's just not quite as fun when one of the people/teams on the fantasy podium is already super dominant and expected to do as well anyway. So they can get diamond-encrusted medals (would they technically be nonmedals?- okay, I'll put away my chemistry nerd puns now). Also, if I include a gymnast who is just total fantasy and not expected to be even close to the podium, I'll put a more realistic fantasy medalist in parentheses underneath.

Team
1. Great Britain
2. Brazil
3. Germany
Can you tell I love my underdog teams? I'm seriously pulling for a bronze upset, and I think there's a really good possibility it will happen!

All Around
1. Rebeca Andrade
2. Laurie Hernandez/Aly Raisman
3. Shang Chunsong
(Giulia Steingruber)
Even with the ACL hiatus, I have remained a devoted Rebeca fan. I really hope she can shine alongside Flavia! Shang came so close last time, and with her great gymnastics and sportsmanship and her life situation, it would just be so wonderful for her to finally medal individually!

Vault
1. Giulia Steingruber
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Marcia Videaux
Giulia has been so close to the top for so long, and she's done nothing but get better. I just love her vaulting, and it would be so great for her to do well! Also, she and Marcia both get nods for not doing strictly round off-entry vaults. And Hong of the weightless Amanar!

Uneven Bars
1. Ruby Harrold
2. Becky Downie
3. Fan Yilin
(Shang Chunsong)
Ruby's bars continue to be my favorite, and the new connection is just fabulous! But she is not a likely medalist at all. Becky medaling is my #1 hope for the UB final! Both the Chinese have fabulous routines, but Fan's is just smoother.

Balance Beam
Alright, so I'm copping out on beam. I'm way too emotionally invested in the beam podium (what a great final to be super emotionally invested in) and though I try to be as un-superstitious as possible, I'm not going to jinx an already beamy final. So I'm doing my dream podium of the gymnasts not likely in the medal hunt.
1. Eythora Thorsdottir
2. Vasiliki Millousi
3. Pauline Schaefer
Three gorgeous beam beauties. I love all of their unique skill sets and choreography!

Floor
1. Claudia Fragapane
2. Aly Raisman
3. Erika Fasana
There are too many gymnasts I love on floor this year. No, no Giulia on my dream podium. I love her on floor, but I'm not a fan of her current routine. Claudia winning a major floor medal is a huge dream of mine. Aly's tumbling is so great, and I just love how she has improved her presentation since last quad! And I just love Erika as a floor performer.

May Rio Predictions

Now that the Test Event has passed and the US have presented all their top gymnasts (who aren't injured), I'm going to do predictions again. Because it's the Olympic year, and why not do predictions a bunch of times?

USA Team
Simone Biles, Gabby Douglas, Aly Raisman, Brenna Dowell, Laurie Hernanadez
VT: (Hernandez) Douglas, Dowell, Biles
UB: (Biles) Douglas, Hernandez, Dowell
BB: (Douglas) Raisman, Hernandez, Biles
FX: (Douglas) Hernandez, Raisman, Biles
I was still holding out for Norah, but the Classics list has been released and she's still not on the roster, which is not good news. Yes, I included Dowell. Get used to predictions that seem to be a bit optimistic, because this will not be the last. I mean really, why not go for your I-mean-it-could-happen predictions in an ultimately inconsequential blog post? But seriously, if she can get the Amanar back and prove that the fall in the Pac Rims EF was just a fluke, she will be a tough asset to leave home. So, Brenna darling, do us a favor and get the Amanar back, okay? I'm sure it can't be all that hard (sarcasm, if I didn't make that obviously clear enough). This is one ridiculous floor team.

China Team
Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Mao Yi, Liu Tingting, Tan Jiaxin
VT: (Shang) Liu, Tan, Mao
UB: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Fan
BB: (Mao) Liu, Shang, Fan
FX: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Mao
I know China already named their team, but I really just think Tan Jiaxin makes a much smarter team member than Wang Yan. Ultimately, they have an awesome mix of ladies who are extremely well-suited to a six-person team, which makes things annoying here. China has, somewhat shockingly, come to a place where Wang Yan isn't necessary for either their vault or floor lineups. And Liu's higher beam consistency and AA potential give her higher stock than Wang Yan, in my opinion.

GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Rebecca Tunney
VT: (Tunney) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Fragapane) E Downie, Tunney, B Downie
BB: (Tunney) Fragapane, E Downie, B Downie
FX: (Tunney) Tinkler, E Downie, Fragapane
Whelp, Catherine Lyons is inheriting the can't-stay-healthy-for-more-than-a-week curse, and Tyesha, who I really wanted to go for UB and BB, has had it all along, so curtains for both of them. But guess who has surfaced again? Rebecca Tunney! So please let this not curse her to be an invalid, too.

Russia Team
Angelina Melnikova, Maria Kharenkova, Aliya Mustafina, Ksenia Afanasyeva, Maria Paseka
VT: (Kharenkova) Melnikova, Afan, Paseka
UB: (Tutkhalyan) Melnikova, Paseka, Mustafina
BB: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Afan
I'm holding to my prediction that Vika will not be back to compete this season and Aliya will be relegated to two events, thanks to the curse of VRod. Melka has been absolutely on fire so far, so hopefully she can take a spot and run with it. Kharenkova has shown herself to be a surprisingly good option so far, doing well on beam in all phases of the competition and putting up respectable floor scores in two (well, a 14.900 is certainly more than respectable, but also steering rather determinedly toward the ridiculous) at Russian Champs, and she did well at Osijek on beam also.

Brazil Team
Flavia Saraiva, Jade Barbosa, Lorraine Oliveira, Rebeca Andrade, Daniele Hypolito
VT: (Saraiva) Oliveira, Barbosa, Andrade
UB: (Barbosa) Oliveira, Saraiva, Andrade
BB: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
FX: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
Andrade is baaaaack!! This is a really well-balanced team, and they look poised to do amazing things!


Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Russia
GB
Brazil
Canada
Germany
Japan

Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Brazil
Yep. Brazil. I did it. I told you there were predictions in this that verge away from the strictly realistic. They completely rocked the house at the test event, so it seems home crowd support really does carry them. I mean, they got a higher score than China did in qualifications at Glasgow! I'm pulling for them, blindly, some might say. And I have the US and China 1-2 because of course.


All Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Gabby Douglas
3. Angelina Melnikova
Larisa is looking not to be at ideal condition to be earning an Olympic ticket, and I want her to get it so badly, but because NOTHING can go right for Romania at the moment, I'm not holding my breath. Cata is going. I'm working on accepting it. And if Larisa can get the spot, then good surprise for me. But anyway, all that to say: I'm predicting Vika, Aliya, and Larisa are out, leaving things a bit sparse at the top. But once again, Melka has been on fire, so she shall swoop in to claim the open spot!


Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Hong Un Jong
Maria Paseka
Ellie Downie
Giulia Steingruber
Dipa Karmaker
Marcia Videux
Alexa Moreno

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Maria Paseka
Biles has gotten the Cheng! Let the world rejoice! She shall finally reign vault! And Hong Un Jong must place higher than Maria Paseka- please!


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Fan Yilin
Shang Chunsong
Elisabeth Seitz
Sophie Scheder
Becky Downie
Brenna Dowell
Gabby Douglas

Podim:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Shang Chunsong
3. Elisabeth Seitz
Another pretty stacked deck. Bars has been ridiculous this quad. Fan unveiled the 7.0 D-score routine, and, oddly enough, she's the only world champion from last year who I predict will return to defend her title, so the chances are looking pretty promising for her to validate my desires and claim the Olympic title. Aliya needs to add something more to her basic routine to medal again, which I would be 100% behind. Shang NEEDS a medal from a high competition, and fortunately, she's looking to be toward the forefront of this pack. And for the final spot (assuming Aliya sticks with basic), I want it to go to Downie, but she's too inconsistent to be a strong pick.


Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Laurie Hernandez
Sanne Wevers
Pauline Schaefer
Liu Tingting
Flavia Saraiva
Shang Chunsong
Maria Kharenkova

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Laurie Hernandez
3. Flavia Saraiva
Fortunately, with some gymnasts becoming markedly more consistent this year, it looks like this year's beam final might be a significant improvement from last year's. Flava Flav (did I make this up myself? because I was pretty sure it was a common nickname when I started using it but I don't actually see it anywhere...) is an example of one of those who has blessedly improved her consistency. The Americans look good to be consistent as well. And then there's the predictions I refuse to make for reasons....


Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Giulia Steingruber
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Claudia Fragapane
Ellie Downie

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Ksenia Afanasyeva
I had Flavia making the final in January, but the mythical 6.3 routine appears to be nowhere in sight, so I must pass now. This podium pick feels obvious and boring to me, but there's nothing else I really see happening either, so... Can Claudia get a medal? Because I just really want that to happen.

The end of an era

Referring, of course, to Romania's failure to qualify a team to the Rio Olympics. What seemed unthinkable descended into the realm of possible at Glasgow's qualification round and continuously declined to the point of seeming likely before the test event. But ultimately, not even in my worst-case scenarios did I see Romania placing behind Switzerland.

Obviously, that bars issue has been dogging Romania for... ever, but that doesn't explain how they went from consistently-in-the-top-4 to second-to-last-at-the-test-event in a year and a half. And what I blame that on, honestly, is the higher-ups begging Sandra and Catalina to come back. I definitely saw a long-term decline (didn't expect not qualifying to Rio, though) as a possibility when they announced their comebacks, but I was so excited that I might see Sandra, my second-favorite gymnast, back in competition again that I really couldn't find it in myself to care. And honestly, if Sandra had competed again (mini side-rant: she went and quit her comeback because she thought the other girls were too good and then she totally would have been one of the best on the team and I could have seen her again and maybe her last competitive routine wouldn't have included a fall UGH WHY DID SHE QUIT) I still wouldn't care. But I do think it's what led to their undoing.

Why, you might ask? I'll give you two reasons: Stefania Stanila and Andreea Munteanu. Both of whom were discouraged in their training because they felt they were being told "you're not good enough, we can't rely on you" when Catalina and Sandra were called back. And guess what happened, they were needed in the end. Stefania had purpose not only as a good AAer but also as one of about two Romanian gymnasts who more often than not could stay on the bars. And Munteanu's strengths might have been better fulfilled by Cata, but she would have been such an asset at the test event. So yes, I am going to blame the immediate failure to qualify to Rio on the "Save us!" move pulled by the Romanian heads.


But, on to the teams who did qualify, because I'm super excited! I really love this group of teams, and I really like the mix we're going to see in Rio. Brazil absolutely rocked the test event, and the expectation is that they will repeat their stardom at the Games. And they've got Rebeca Andrade back!!! Flavia is going to be the darling, and her beam is to die for (and she's been hitting consistently this season)! I really think they're going to rock house this summer.

Onward to Germany. Seitz and Scheder both competing on bars will be very nice, especially should the Schimm resurface. And I'd like to see Scheder repeat on the beam final front.

Belgium did it! With a little help from Julie Crocket!! I love her so much. Can she please be healthy for longer than two seconds this year? Nina Derwael and Axelle Klinckaert are going to be such exciting prospects for them, and I'd love to see them kick butt this summer.

And finally, France. Which means Marine Brevet once again- with the Shine on You Crazy Diamond routine? I must say, I just really enjoy their unique and different choreography. The French team is just such a beautiful one.