Favorite Routines of the Quad: Bars

Aliya Mustafina, 2013 Worlds AA

Gotta love the Seitz and the Mustafina dismount. That's one of those things you've just gotta love about Aliya, how she'll just pull out a randomly different routine every now and then to keep you on your toes. And as always, the classic Aliya swing.

Roxana Popa, 2014 Blume Memorial

Oh, how I miss pre-hey-your-ACL-is-torn-by-the-way Roxana. Her bars work especially was super exciting, and all the connections in this routine just make it so dynamic. There's just so much flight and movement between the bars in this routine! And the inbar Geinger in its pure form.

Rebecca Tunney, 2014 Europeans EF

Long live the Church+Bhardwaj! There's just so much flight and not a second of wasted time in her routine.

Lisa Katharina Hill, 2014 Stuttgart World Cup

Another routine with a Bhardwaj- unique transition work is a pretty sure-fire way to get on this list! I also love her long combination into the Gienger combining pirouettes, transitions, and different kinds of circling elements. There's just so much variety in this routine!

Brenna Dowell, 2014 P&Gs, Day 1

There is just so much in this routine! I'm a fan of everything but the kitchen sink bars routines, and I love how much variety and excitement she is able to pack in. All of the combinations are just amazing, and the Tweddle+Ezhova especially!

Amelia Hundley, 2015 Pan Ams EF

I just really love the way Meals works bars. I find there to be something Aliya-esque in her swing. She never seems to be fighting with the apparatus, and it almost seems as if time has slowed slightly while she performs.

Shang Chunsgong, 2015 Worlds TF

You've just gotta love a good ol' release fest. And it's especially nice with Shang's gorgeous eponymous skill. I also like that she's got some good ol' pretty Chinese one-armed pirouettes going. I was never a pirouette fest fan, but I do wish they hadn't disappeared so much. Shang's issue on bars is her swing can sometimes be a bit labored, but that wasn't a problem here.

Fan Yilin, 2015 Worlds EF

Such a difficult routine and so well done. Lots of movement between the bars, pirouettes, and a great inbar Gienger! Definitely my favorite of the reigning world champions.

Becky Downie, 2016 Europeans EF

So many fabulous releases and combinations! And with Becky's beautiful presentation to top it off. This is a monster of a routine. The Chow+Shang is so breathtaking, but then, so is everything else in this routine.

Jessica Lopez, 2016 Sao Paulo World Cup EF

So many inbar Giengers this quad! One thing I love about JLo's bars is how she works and turns through inverted grip. And her lovely open Jaeger! I also love her double front, there's just something so compact about it.

Ruby Harrold, 2015 Worlds EF

And my favorite UB routine to end! Both a Maloney+Bhardwaj and a Van Leeuwen+Zuchold. The Zuchold is just the ultimate of cool transitions (which, in case you can't tell by now, I'm a sucker for). Not pristine, but just plain cool.

More Olympic posting! On the controversial finishes...

Qualifications: Now, I'd be lying if said the witch-hunt response of the gymternet regarding bars in general at the Olympics didn't make me somewhat less sympathetic here. But honestly, it really did seem to be a bump as the subdivisions progressed. Sub 1 was super harsh, subs 2 and 3 were both scoring at the top of range but were fairly consistent with each other, sub 4 got a boost again, and then honestly there wasn't really anything in sub 5 that could stand out to me enough for me to have an opinion with the marathon day. Honestly, with the way their routines went that day, the Chinese bars workers weren't in the very top echelon, and there are a lot of gymnasts in that second echelon on bars. Looking at results other than the Chinese and the Americans on bars, Hong Un Jong's vaults were scored low compared to the rest of the scoring that day in sub 1, Tutya Yilmaz and Nina Derwael both would likely have made their potential EFs had they been in a later sub, Becky Downie got within a tenth of Fan Yilin when she hit her feet on the bar in sub 3, and Jessica Lopez has a couple noticeable form breaks in her routine that weren't reflected in her score in sub 4 as well. So while the scoring was all over the place, it didn't really seem to be targeted the way so many were claiming. To put together my thoughts regarding bars in qualifications, I decided to have some fun and score the routines of the gymnasts who made the final and the alternates using Aliya's score as the metric. Of course, the disclaimer that I'm just a couch fan trying out applying the code. Also, to make it more similar to an actual judging experience, I watched Aliya's routine once to get my standard, and then only watched each routine once.
1. Aliya Mustafina: 15.833-6.8/9.033
2. Maddie Kocian: 15.666-6.7/8.966
3. Daria Spiridonova: 15.6-6.5/9.1
3. Gabby Douglas: 15.6-6.5/9.1
5. Nina Derwael: 15.566-6.6/8.966
5. Elisabeth Seitz: 15.566-6.6/8.966
7. Fan Yilin: 15.566-6.9/8.666
8. Sophie Scheder: 15.5-6.6/8.9
9. Shang Chunsong: 15.5-6.7/8.8
10. Becky Downie: 15.266-6.8/8.466
11. Jessica Lopez: 15.066-6.4/8.666

Men's AA: So, to preface this, Oleg is my favorite MAG gymnast and I stan him shamelessly. But, to try to put on my objective pants... this is way too close to call. This would have been a perfect situation for a tie (y'know, if the IOC didn't randomly decide that ONLY GYMNASTICS needs to have Olympic tiebreakers...) But, if I am forced to make a call and not play 2015 Worlds UB judge, I do think Oleg had the slightly better day. 8.3 does seem just a bit low for that HB routine.

Women's AA: Shang was robbed. When discussing the AA bronze, Shang's BB score is usually pointed to as the issue, but personally, I don't think that was actually a problem. BB scoring for the most part that day was pretty tight all around (pun... maybe slightly intended) with the exception of Simone, which affected literally nothing, and Aliya (at least, of the gymnasts who had any influence at all on anything medal-wise). So for me, the problem- speaking in terms of how judging went that day, at least- was Aliya's BB score. Shang's FX score was a little low, too. *But the FTY!!* But Shang's 1.5 overall D score advantage! The salient point is the E scores, which weren't consistent, in my opinion.

UB: Not really all that controversial, but about 2 people disagreed and the still-salty fans from quals decided to make a huge deal out of it. Agree. Maddie had a couple little errors at the end of her routine she hadn't had in the previous rounds.

BB: In the world of "everything goes the way I want it to!!!", Simone wouldn't have the bronze. There would also have been more than two gymnasts in the final who hit their routines without major error (maybe if Shang had been in the final....) But yeah, in terms of what I want to see, I'd give the bronze to Flava Flav. In the world of "the judges are directed by the FIG how to score and can't take more than .8 if the gymnasts doesn't actually fall", I do think Simone probably had the more COP-friendly routine. I will complain about what this says about the COP. Or, at least, I would if SANNE WEVERS hadn't BECOME OLYMPIC BEAM CHAMPION IN THIS FINAL, making me completely unconcerned about anything else.

So, is Svetlana Khorkina available?

Wait- countries other than the US exist? What?

So yeah, this blog has been a bit America-centric in the last few weeks, but the Russian Cup has come along and provided plenty of fodder for discussion. Mostly in the form of ranting, heavy sighs, and aggressive "UGGGHHH"s.

If you were hoping the Russians in Penza were going to display better preparation as we drew closer to the Olympics, sorry, because about the exact opposite happened. Awesome. Great. Who needs consistency, really? It's just a hallmark of dirty American gymnastics anyway.

Bars meltdowns were the big trend of day 1, which is worrying since that is supposed to be the event where Russia can get their big scores, and they're kind of depending on it to make up for where they lack on other events. They had 4 14+ routines, two of which came from Kapitonova, who fell, and Skrypnik, who we all know are never getting selected, one from Melnikova, who also fell, and the other from Spiridonova. And while Spiridonova is in genuine contention, she is dead weight everywhere else when Russia is looking to plug holes, and she even had her own issues with a .5 late pirouette. Paseka is back on vault despite some scares she might still be in traction or whatever was supposed to be going on with her, but only reached 13.25 on bars, where she is also supposed to be able to contribute, especially now with Vika out.

Angelina grabbed the beam and fell on her double pike dismount day 1, which was definitely worrying since who are we supposed to be able to put on beam if Melka starts breaking down? She pulled it together for a hit, if tentative, routine day 2 which made everyone let out an extremely tensely held breath, and so we carry on. She actually pulled everything together day 2, improving on bars as well for another hit and keeping pace on vault and floor. I won't be surprised if she is used on all four in the team final. But it does definitely make a contrast to the American nationals where pretty much everyone had their issues but only two who have at all legitimate shots actually fell, and then on routines where they're not needed.

Seda is actually pulling out about her best work yet, which is lovely to see and not exactly universal. Definitely reminds me of how she seemed to be the only Russian who actually cared about their performance at the end of the team final last year. The Rods seem to put her on teams even when her work makes her inclusion arguable, so I'd not be at all surprised to see her on the Olympic team, especially with so many being sidelined. She has been one of the top on beam in Penza, which I find more than just mildly amusing. But I think that amusement is outweighed by depression. Don't forget that she is at the top with a semi-crashed dismount day 1.

Aliya has fallen thrice on bars across the two days. That is about the last thing Russia needed or expected. One day can be a fluke off day, two days is concerning. She is back to the AA now, which is definitely a weight of Russia's collective shoulders, but man. She's still struggling to get an acro series in. Why doesn't she just have a BHS+BHS series at this point to make sure she gets it?

Afan and Kharenkova are both out with injury right now, to top everything off. Kharenkova was not the expected team member in the way Afan is, but she had the preferable hit record compared to Tutkhalyan, and with Vika out, Russia is in the throes of a HOW DO WE PUT TOGETHER A BEAM LINEUP??? crisis. (Side note: how much do you think Russia would love to have Ragan Smith right now?)

Afan's situation I think sums up the why Russia is in such a relative shambles. She got injured before Euros, and yet, instead of replace her with Kapitonova, she was still put up in competition. The reasoning? They would have had to rely on an FTY otherwise. And now she's spending the lead up to the Olympics in Germany getting surgery. The Rods never see beyond what's right under their nose. Not having three DTYs meant Russia might not win Euros, so she had to be kept, never mind that it might put her ability to compete in Rio at risk. It's the same thing they've been doing all quad. Remember when they had an Olympic-worthy Universiade team and then were scrambling to find three gymnasts they could send to Worlds? How about the number of minor competitions they've sent Aliya to instead of having her rest only for her to be weakened come the major season? They consistently put success at whatever competition they're at RIGHT NOW above success later in the season.

Alright, so the Olympic picture. Melnikova's in. Aliya's in, no matter what happened in Penza. The other two spots are between Paseka, Spiridonova, Afan, and Tutkhalyan. Honestly, to me, at this point, it makes sense just to take the team that has the most potential for individual success, which this group could still have a fair share of. The three picks for that would obviously be Paseka, Spiridonova, and Afan if she gets back. The problem there is either Spiridonova will have to go up on beam or Afan will have to get beam back, which is a lot to ask in her recovery. Tutkhalyan is preferable to Spiridonova for beam, but it's still kind of worrying that she's a lineup savior there.

(Senior) Euros Predictions

With the whole end of the school year hubbub, I got caught off guard once again this year as to just how close Euros are. Close as in, they start Wednesday. So here are my predictions for the senior scene, because I'm honestly not informed enough to do junior predictions. So here are those: ZUBOVA WINS EVERYTHING!


Team
Finalists:
Russia
Romania
Great Britain
Italy
Germany
France
Belgium
Switzerland

Podium:
1. Russia
2. Great Britain
3. Italy
Russia and GB look pretty firmly at the head of the pack. Otherwise, a lot of teams aren't sending full A team squads. I'm really not quite sure who to pick for bronze.


Vault
Finalists:
Giulia Steingruber
Seda Tutkhalyan
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Ellie Downie
Claudia Fragapane
Zsofia Kovacs
Teja Belak
Tjasa Kysselef

Podium:
1. Giulia Steingruber
2. Ellie Downie
3. Afan
This, of course, assumes Afan will come with two vaults, which you can never be certain of. Steingruber is clearly the favorite, as always at Euros this quad. Ellie's work is always easy on the eyes and allows for some good scores, and I hope to see her rewarded for it at a high-level international this week.


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Daria Spiridonova
Becky Downie
Ruby Harrold
Nina Derwael
Loan His
Kim Bui
Martina Rizzelli

Podium:
1. Daria Spiridonova
2. Becky Downie
3. Aliya Mustafina
Becky Downie's hit magic at Euros the last two years, so I'm picking her as safe for this final. Daria is obviously the clear front runner, like Giulia in vault. Aliya's basic routine should be clean enough for her to take a medal easily in this field.


Balance Beam
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Angelina Melnikova
Catalina Ponor
Gabby Jupp
Becky Downie
Nina Derwael
Giulia Steingruber
Vasiliki Millousi

Podium:
1. Angelina Melnikova
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Catalina Ponor
Melnikova has been dominating the beam so far. Aliya and Catalina are both consistent picks with routines that garner high scores.


Floor
Finalists:
Giulia Steingruber
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Angelina Melnikova
Claudia Fragapane
Ellie Downie
Elisa Meneghini
Catalina Ponor
Yana Horokhova

Podium:
1. Afan
2. Giula Steingruber
3. Claudia Fragapane
I had absolutely no idea who to pick for the last EF spot, so I went Horokhova because I like her and she made a World Cup EF on floor, so why not. Afan has had a good legacy on floor in her comeback, so she seemed the obvious choice for gold. And though Claudia has a bit of a history of outplacing Giulia, Giulia's Gogean! I'd like to see her get a higher medal at Euros.

January Rio Predictions

Teams Qualifying at the Test Event
Romania
Brazil
Australia
Belgium


USA Team
Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, Maggie Nichols, Norah Flatley, Maddie Kocian
VT: (Flatley) Raisman, Nichols, Biles
UB: (Biles) Nichols, Flately, Kocian
BB: (Nichols) Raisman, Biles, Flatley
FX: (Flatley) Nichols, Raisman, Biles
Yeah, I know there are a ton of conspiracy theories about how the Attack Cup competitors are the ones up for second AA and so Raisman is off the team and yada yada yada, but unless another Amanar pops up from a top competitor (or another 6.0+ D score vault, the blogger mentions dutifully) or Mykayla Skinner suddenly becomes impossible to leave home, the Biles-Nichols-Raisman trifecta is definitely going. If the Amanar (and/or the Mykayla) situation does change though, it's a free-for-all and everyone have fun playing Martha because it's going to be one exciting ride. I've had a feeling that at least one new senior would make the team, and Norah's been training some awesome bars skills that could make her a UB-BB specialist that would fit the team perfectly. If the Amanar situation changes, I'm also calling Ragan Smith as a dangerous one- I could totally see her snatching up Aly's spot if the Amanar isn't her golden ticket.

China Team
Yao Jinnan, Shang Chunsong, Wang Yan, Fan Yilin, Liu Tingting
VT: (Shang Chunsong) Yao Jinnan, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan
UB: (Liu Tingting) Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Yao Jinnan
BB: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
FX: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
I definitely think this seems like the most balanced Chinese team in forever. Of course, this relies on Yao Jinnan being back in the AA, so if she's not things will shuffle. But even then, I don't think the 3-person lineups should be in too dire a state. Lots of gymnasts up on three events on this team, but still a good depth pool for them if someone falls apart either mentally or physically between now and Rio, I think.

GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Tyesha Mattis
VT: (Mattis) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
BB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
FX: (Mattis) Tinkler, Fragapane, E Downie
It feels so wrong not putting Catherine Lyons on this team seeing as she's basically been groomed for it the whole quad, but with Amy, Claudia, and Ellie, she'd only compete on bars and beam in the final, and Mattis is easily the better UB-BB specialist. If she just stays in one piece this year...

Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Angelina Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan, Daria Spiridonova
VT: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Afan, Bee Farm
UB: (Melnikova) Bee Farm, Mustafina, Spiridonova
BB: (Spiridonova) Afan, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan
With VRod's naming the 4-person core in 2015, she of course curse it not to happen. Since Vika is Vika and can never stay uninjured for more than one month at a time, I'm predicting she's off, and because VRod is VRod and whenever she opens her mouth nothing good can happen, I'm predicting Aliya's out for the AA. The weak link of this team is floor. Beam is a good and relatively nerve-free lineup for Russia (assuming Afan is doing beam next year), but of course it's Russia and it's beam, so that may end up being a weak spot as well. But in terms of how strong the events are, floor is the weaker.

Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Diana Bulimar, Laura Jurca, Catalina Ponor, Andreea Ciurusniuc
VT: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
UB: (Jurca) Ciurusniuc, Bulimar, Iordache
BB: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
FX: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
I want Izbasa back on the team, but news on her training has been spotty and she wan't put on the Olympic training squad, if I do recall correctly. It is a bit depressing to bring Ciurusniuc as a bars specialist, but Iridon is allergic to the apparatus and she's one of their best options. Bulimar could also go up for Jurca on either beam or floor. Ah, Romania is in a sad state.



Team
Finalists:
USA
Russia
China
Romania
Great Britain
Japan
Canada
Brazil

Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
The USA is the obvious pick and it will be a huge upset if they don't win, so moving on to the more exciting material. Romania looks to be ending their team-medal-at-every-Olympics streak. While I think they're looking not to be in the same extremely dangerous state this year, the rest of the Big Four and some top other nations look to be outstripping them fairly easily again for Rio. I think they'll be somewhere in the 4-6 range. The competition for the silver between China and Russia should be very exciting, with both having good depth years across the events, but I think China will maintain their silver streak due to some Russian shakiness on beam and floor. I also think GB has a good shot at the podium, though they have an uphill climb, and I think the other three might get closer to a medal than we're expecting.


All-Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Maggie Nichols
3. Larisa Iordache
I feel like I'm jinxing Simone not to complete her quad-long reign by this, but who else am I really to predict? Though I think Maggie could very well be on the chopping block for the team depending on who is suddenly wonderful this year, if she goes she is a very strong shot for the podium. Larisa is another obvious pick. Without Aliya or Vika, I don't really see much competition for these three, but if my doomsday predictions don't pan out, they could spice things up nicely.


Vault
Finalists:
Hong Un Jong
Simone Biles
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Ellie Downie
Afan
Marcia Vidaeux

Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Bee Farm
3. Simone Biles
I'm not holding my breath for the Cheng this year (but maybe?) Anyway, I'm thinking Hong Un Jong is going to pull ahead of Bee Farm this year. Not much change from last year.


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Daria Spiridonova
Aliya Mustafina
Maddie Kocian
Fan Yilin
Yao Jinnan
Becky Downie
Sophie Scheder
Simone Biles/Norah Flatley

Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Yao Jinnan
3. Daria Spiridonova
I feel like Yao Jinnan might be the more prudent gold-medal pick, but I want it to be Fan Yilin, so I went with her anyway. I'm expecting it to be China-China-Russia, regardless of the combination of gymnasts. Yeah, I have Simone potentially making it. she was two-pered last year, don't forget!


Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Norah Flatley
Larisa Iordache
Liu Tingting
Shang Chunsong
Aliya Mustafina
Ellie Black
Pauline Schaefer

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Norah Flatley
3. Aliya Mustafina
Again, I'm going with safe options for the podium. I'm expecting beam to be a bit more Big Four-heavy than in Glasgow. I'm again expecting Larisa to have some mishap keeping her from the podium. Simone comes in again with the obvious upper hand, but I think Norah has some potential for a challenge in her as well. I think Pauline Schaefer is going to just squeak in for the final. I was debating putting in Liu Tingting for the bronze, and I'd like to see it happen. And hopefully more gymnasts than not will have routines without major errors? I know, we haven't seen it in a while, but I think this group has it in them. I believe!


Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Afan
Claudia Fragapane
Flavia Saraiva
Larisa Iordache
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Flavia Saraiva
Yeah, I'm predicting Flava-flav for the final (and the podium, apparently!) She's apparently got a 6.3 routine in the works, and she's the kind of gymnast the judges love, so I see her making it in. As for on the podium, I was going to put Raisman there, but I just kind of felt like someone unexpected would medal on floor, and Flavia was the most unexpected of the gymnasts I predicted to final. So I put her there. I think this will be a pretty competitive final- aside from Simone, everyone is at a fairly equal playing field. I also think there are others at about the same level outside this group, so it should be fun to watch the fight to make it in. I'm really looking forward to this one!

Floor Music I Want to See: Russia

Of course, I want these gymnasts to use this music after the Rods have been kicked out once and for all and the gymnasts are conditioned to a point where they can actually perform strongly artistic routines again.

Aliya Mustafina- "Montagues and Capulets"

Aliya is a diva on the floor (in an "every person in this stadium needs to be looking at me right now because I am killing it" kind of way), and this music is big and dramatic enough that she could own the floor with it. Also, as it is classical, it combines the drama with "Russian tradition" and would be a bit more regal for her, methinks.

Viktoria Komova- "Avrora" (Anna Bessonova's 2007-2008 Hoop Music)

I've honestly never considered any of Vika's floor routines highly artistic (except for the AA performance of her 2012 one). I believe that is because the Russian choreographers decided "Swan Lake Breakdown didn't work, so since classic style isn't her, we'll give her crowd-pleasing routines!" I really think Vika has a lot of untapped artistic potential in a darker and more emotional style. Of course, I have no solid evidence to base this on, so I could be totally wrong. It's just a feeling. I will fully admit that this could be a disaster, but I think it really would be haunting and beautiful and a performance for the ages.

Maria Kharenkova- "Blues for Klook"

I have a confession to make and you all may judge me for this. I don't really get the hype over Mitova's floor to this music, other than it's sheer difference from the rest of the routines of the time. Of course, Russia would never (and nor would any other major program besides the US, who used two recycled pieces in 2014 AND has had multiple gymnasts use "Blues") use music from a routine so venerated. Too much of a risk artistically. I love Maria's routine from 2012 and think routines with more passion and tension are better suited to her than the purely elegant, purely graceful routines she's had this quad. This would really give her opportunity to stretch her wings artistically and get back to her artistic roots from 2012, but with the maturity she has acquired since then. I also would love to see Afan with this music.

Alla Sosnitskaya- "Fever"
This one would never be allowed either, since Cata JUST used it. For shame. I mentioned in my Nanning floor analysis series that she displayed a slinkyness in the slow part of her "Pretty Woman" routine I think Russia should capitalize on. The jazz tones and prominent bass would give her plenty of room to play with that and she could finally have her chance to sparkle on floor. If not "Fever", at least "Why Don't You Do Right?" Also, I want Afan to use one of these ones. Afan just needs a season where she has a different floor routine every time she competes so she use all the music she should.

Anastasia Grishina- "The Promise" from The Secret Garden or "Once Upon a December"
Grishy is coming back and slaying, okay? These would both be great routines for Grishy's light and pretty style. And "Once Upon a December" is a waltz, which Grishy has a corner on. "The Promise" would be the softer, more lyrical route, while "Once Upon a December" would be grander. And come on, how awesome would it be for Grishy to use music from Anastasia?

Afan- Postmodern Jukebox's cover of "Seven Nation Army"
In case you can't tell by this point, I want Afan to do something bluesy. I think she's got just the right mix of maturity, dancing style, and slightly sardonic expression to make it awesome. This cover is the perfect moodiness for Afan to get in some of her awesome original choreography (BRING BACK THE LEG CHOREO FROM 2012). And come on, Afan doing "Seven Nation Army"? Awesome.

Literally Anyone- "Padam, Padam" (Zhenya's 2009 Ribbon Music)
Any Russian should use this. ANY OF THEM. And all of them. But honestly, somehow this music would be absolutely perfect for every single style of the Russian gamut. Aliya could totally get all diva/queen with it and incorporate a few death glares while she's at it. For Vika, she could stay all light and ballerina and I-don't-have-body-fat-ly while still being able to play with more than she's been given in the past. This music is definitely more in the way of Masha's 2012 routine than we've seen recently and she could bring back some of the old cheekiness with it. Alla could totally throw in a bunch of playful slinkyness with it and light up an arena. It's light and frothy for Grishy to keep her super pretty style but she could also be playful with it. And Afan! Lots of leg choreo-like opportunities, as well as opportunities for that wry expression from her 2011-2012 days.

Euro Games Wrap-Up

The Good

• Diverse competition and medalists
• Giulia winning two golds
• Oleg Vernaiev winning things and clapping before his national anthem ended
• Seda's TF beam
• Lieke Wevers performed beautifully on beam and floor and was rewarded for it
• The Netherlands won a team medal!
• Fabian Hambuchen shouting when he stuck a dismount
• Releases other than Jagers
• Giulia's vaults

The Bad

• Team GB imploding
• Tea Ugrin somehow finishing last in the bars finals leaving a medalist who fell
• The one-per-country rule left a lot of strong competition out of finals
• Only six in EFs

The Ugly

• Kelley Simm getting a 0 on her second vault in EF
• Bars and beam finals
• The uproar after floor

Team: This was a great competition. I especially really enjoyed watching all the gymnasts from smaller nations, they're always interesting. It's always nice when you come upon a format where you can watch all the top high-level gymnasts and so many gymnasts from developing programs as well. I was surprised Hungary placed so high. Romania needs to get into shape. They really do need their comeback "kids" (and Iordache, of course). Very pleased with how the Netherlands did.

All Around: I wish more of the top gymnasts hadn't fallen. Really, the results are quite jarring. Jurca in ninth, Simm not even in the top 10. Glad that none of the top three had a fall. I really didn't feel like Giulia was all that invested in the performance of her floor in either the team or the all around. Her vaulting was fabulous, though. Absolutely no question about the medalists, certainly. Mustafina seemed more well carried and steadier in the all around than the team final.

Vault: Giulia was amazing, of course. She gets so much height on her Rudi! Her form has also greatly improved. she only has flexed feet now. I think Seda's DTY has improved from last year. I really loved Janik's vaults. I like a tuck front full. I preferred her Tsuk layout, but it was still a bit piked. Kelley Simm's vault was very scary. She got no height, and it was quite splatty. Very good she wasn't hurt.

Bars: Oh, this was a splat-fest. I still don't understand how Tea Ugrin only finished last when she was one of three who didn't fall. It was messy, but I still don't understand it. I'm pretty sure Makra also caught her feet on her dismount. Scheder and Mustafina were both incredible. I'm obsessed with Sophie Scheder's casts! Nothing makes quite the impression on bars for me a casts with legs together. They just look so much cleaner and even gravity-defying. Her dismount was perfect! Her entire routine was just so beautiful. Aliya's was also lovely, of course. I don't know, I feel like there's not too much to say with her because it's the same basic watered-down routine she's had since 2012 and she's performed it beautifully many times.

Beam: Sophie and Giulia both almost didn't put their hands down. So close to having a podium with no major errors! Still, I might go so far as to say this was a better beam final than Nanning. And Georgina had a completely steady routine other than her fall! All we can do is tear our hair out. Andreea Iridon finally didn't fall apart. She has made it through a final! I missed the first part, I have to say, but it was without error. Lieke Wevers won!! Ugh, so beautiful. Her turns are glorious. I loved the aerial+aerial as well.

Floor: I was surprised by Zarzu's score. I thought it was better executed than the score it earned. Lisa Verschueren's floor is everything I never know I needed! It's so ridiculously bizarre and she is so totally un-self-conscious about it. Lieke's floor is a dream, though that spin needs to go. It ruins the whole aesthetic and suddenly breaks up how easy she makes it all look. Aliya's turns were interesting in this one. I'm not feeling the attitude+Memmel connection. I think she just needs to switch feet because she always fell out of that. Apparently Semenova confirmed her Gomez was downgraded. That doesn't really make sense seeing as it looked completely clear, but her turns in general were a bit confusing and imperfect. Too much twisting in this routine for my liking, she needs to play to her strengths more. Giulia was lowballed on execution, I think. Either that or Aliya was scored high. She had one large bound back, but her execution overall was much cleaner and her artistry was much better. The amplitude Giulia was able to get on her DLO was breathtaking! She definitely put her heart into this one, and I thought it was by far her best performance of the competition. I'm definitely siding with Giulia on who should have won. She was superior in difficulty, execution, and artistry. On heelgate- we had a live stream that was of good quality but was by no means crystal clear and a screenshot that was a bit fuzzy. One person who took a screenshot said she had to slow it down to .25 speed to get her screenshot. AND IT STILL WASN'T CLEAR IF HER HEEL WAS OUT. The line judge was a few feet away and had a perfectly clear view. Is it possible her heel was out and the line judge couldn't see it? Yes. But if it was that close, I am going to trust the line judge's judgement.

Team Russia: Seda was the gymnast who impressed me the most of Russia's team. She seemed the most prepared and, in the team competition, in the best competitive mindset. I'm worried, of course, by the fall in the beam final because her value from the team final appeared to be as a team player. If she can't prove her value there, I don't think I see her in Glasgow. Viktoria is just so frustrating. She's been working a comeback in dribs and drabs for over a year now and- when is it all going to come together? She could at least compete all four events at a competitive level this year, which she couldn't in December. I don't know, I wasn't one of her converts of 2010 and 2011 and so I guess I just don't have the same investment in her as most of the gymternet. She does seem to see that she has a way to go and a desire to get there, so we'll see. I'll try not to be too cynical. She was able to stay on beam despite the wobbles, so I do at least have some hope she can bring that to more future competition. Her beam could be a strong deciding factor in the fall, methinks, so if she can prove she can be depended on to stay on, if nothing else, that should be a plus by her name. Especially with the Russian inconsistency on beam (see Seda in the EF). She hit her feet on the low bar again- that seems to be an even bigger vice of hers in her comeback, so I hope she can get that under control. Okay, so she and Aliya both debuted DLOs on floor. Of course, Aliya has been teasing us with this for a long time, but I, at least, was taken completely off guard by Vika's. I'm not particularly taken by either of their routines, I must say. Very Rod-era we-don't-condition-our-athletes choreography. Aliya's choreography is taken up almost entirely by setting for turns. They're both routines where I finish watching and think to myself "Wait, there was choreography in that routine?" Again, I blame the majority of the blame for this at Round Lake and the lack of proper conditioning. I personally think Vika may be a highly artistic performer, perhaps one of the most artistic of her age, but her coaching staff has given her routines that do not fit her style and it hasn't been given the opportunity to let it really show. Really, I don't think it would be a bad idea for Aliya and Vika to switch music- it would seem a much better fit to me. And for the Russian athletes to be conditioned. Really, I'm not a huge fan of any of Aliya's new compositions. On her bars, I have absolutely no idea what's bothering me seeing as it is in every significant way the same basic routine she's had for years, but something's not doing it for me. Her twisting form did catch my eye, though. In the team competition, I though it looked worse if anything, but in the individual finals I saw a definite improvement. I still want her to bring her double arabian back instead of one of her twisting passes (especially if she has a whip-whip), but I must give credit where credit is due. I feel like that was really negative. I'm just too depressed about Russian gymnastics under the Rods to look on the bright side.

Team Germany: Scheder and Seitz can be double-hitters for Germany, and Scheder really could be a very big asset this season. Both gymnasts have huge bars sets which could bump up their score very well. Seitz could be in their vault lineup as well. Scheder definitely has the best all around potential. Her beam is capable of a good score when she hits and her floor is decent. We only really got to see any of Scheder since the German girls weren't shown much in the team final. The biggest thing for her is her mind, as always. Her beam especially is hit-or-miss, which isn't really what one wants to see. Her bars could be Worlds final-worthy though.

Team Netherlands: The Netherlands are on a roll this year. Sanne won a bars medal at Euros and made the beam final, and now her sister cleaned up at the European Games. Lieke's performance was huge. I loved what we saw from her (okay, who didn't?) Her performance in the beam final stood out to me especially because of how she kept her cool. It was a splat-fest of a final and all she needed was a solid routine to be assured of a medal, and she delivered easily. That ability to remain clam, cool, and collected will be of huge value if she maintains it. She also has really made the most of her gorgeous floor. It's getting good solid scores in the mid-13s, so it's usable, to say the least. The biggest thing Lieke displayed in Baku was a very valuable competition mindset. She kept it all going in the all around as well, and I see her really proving herself as a team player. Celine van Gerner- I don't know what to think about her. They didn't show her floor, which made me really mad. But it got a 13.00, which is better than she got at Worlds! She was able to make bars finals, and her bars are pretty good as a Dutch gymnast. Her scores counted on all events, so she also displayed team player ability. But then in her bars final routine, she caught a release to her chest. Lisa Top was really valuable for her vault and floor. Vault, she delivered; floor, not so much. I hope it was just a fluke. Her power is good for the Dutch team. Overall, the Dutch girls were really impressive.



I thought the European Games was a good competition and I enjoyed watching it. I'm always interested in new formats, and this one definitely delivered. I think this might have given us a bit of an indicator of what things will be a bit like in Tokyo. And- well, it should be interesting, at least. I can't decide how I liked having the men and women run simultaneously. I do definitely blame that for missing some routines I was looking forward to. I just wish more teams would have sent stronger representatives. And why didn't Tyesha Matthis go? She needs the experience! Was there and injury? I've looked and seen nothing Well, now you'll leave me to question the British strategies on my own.

(Floor) Artistry in Nanning: The EF

Yeah, so it's REALLY late to make a Worlds post, I know. This is just the first of three or so on artistry, but I'll get to them before the end of the year at least. Just be patient.

We're all accustomed to the claims the the sport is totally lacking in artistry and should just drop that part of the name and kick out anyone bigger than a size 2 and just shut down all the programs outside Europe except with maybe of the exception of the China, depending who you're talking to, and lynch Martha Karolyi while we're at it- or, at least, we're used to the whining of the artistry trolls who can't accept that the sport won't evolve from what it was in the 80s, and the rest can often be easily inferred. So, what was the artistry situation really like this year? I decided to take a look at some top routines from Worlds (and some of my favorites as well) to get a general temperature of (floor) artistry in 2014.

On tonight's episode of (Floor) Artistry in Nanning- the 8 routines of the floor event final!

Simone Biles

This is the kind of routine the trolls mentioned above love to crucify with no real reasoning as to why. Simone is a real performer and it is on perfect display in this routine. Her amazing eye contact, totally genuine dazzling smile, and even fun expressions before her mind-blowing tumbling passes make for the most enjoyable performance. This routine works with all her strengths and is another example of Dominic Zito at his best. This routine interprets the music perfectly. Her low to the floor bit is especially in tune with the accompaniment. The choreography also does a great job of capturing the fun nature of the music and making it like a party instead of a grueling test of physical ability. I love the way she is constantly moving from one skill or gesture to the next. This routine never stops and continues seamlessly as one complete, cohesive unit. I also love how well her trademark cartwheel was incorporated into the ending!

Larisa Iordache

I definitely prefer this routine to her guitar one from 2012. Larisa is one of the best gymnasts at working with the regulations of how long the gymnasts may stand in the corner. She has great body movement and does a great job of moving her body along with her arm and leg movements instead of having disconnected gestures. Larisa does a really good job of combining punctuating movements with extended ones to shape the music. I also like the way she changes the way she holds her hands and head position to add flourish and depth to her choreography and get in lots of good eye contact. It's a really great energetic and joyful routine but still mature.

Aliya Mustafina

This routine is just so- empty. I finish the routine and wonder where exactly the choreography was. It's good, but... she can do so much more than this! She does, as Christine says, have a beautiful shoulder line and nice smooth movement. She just spends so much time setting up for turns or getting into place for them with extremely simple movement. Aliya has just had such underwhelming routines that don't take advantage at all of what she can put forth since London! Just- the Rods! Like I said, it's good, but it should be so much better than good.

Mykayla Skinner

Mykayla is most certainly not the best dancer. She is fairly stiff, especially in her upper body movement. Whereas Aliya has great movement but lacking choreography, Mykayla- well, she doesn't have great choreography but it does fill the routine, but her quality of movement is just not there. Usually I prefer gymnasts who don't have the most natural movement to perform routines like this instead of crowd-pleasing ones, but her folk routine worked for her because she was able to have angular movement for the music. I think she handled it pretty well in the final and it was definitely her best performance, but there's only so much you can do when you are stiff in movement.

Vanessa Ferrari

Like her Last of the Mohicans routine, this is really a Vanessa-only routine. The choreography itself really isn't the greatest and fairly repetitive, but Vanessa is exactly the one to perform it. She makes it dramatic and full of flair and somehow regal. It suits the music and fits it easily, and her interpretation of the slower part is similarly perfectly Vanessa. There's really not much more to say about this routine. Vanessa makes this routine.

Larrissa Miller

Larrissa is elegant, no doubt. But where is the musicality in this routine? Her movements seem to have little to no relation with the music. Christine says that she seems to be waiting for the music- this describes her less than serendipitous relationship with the accompaniment. She also seems to be a bit stiff in her movement at times, though not as bad as Mykayla. The best choreography is definitely between her second and third tumbles.

Erika Fasana

Erika has amazing presence here. Very aggressive and she really attacks her movements. Works well with the slightly different music choice. She really has a flair for the dramatic. The choreography isn't always the greatest, but it has some really good moments as well. I especially love the sequence after her leap passage and before her final tumble. Nice variety between sharp movements and smooth ones and really exciting moments. She moves quickly throughout the routine but really does a good job of interpreting the music. I also really love how Erika is pulling in toward herself and tossing her back backwards throughout the routine. The routine seems to pass fairly quickly because Erika moves so quickly and it is such a forward moving routine but she really packs in a lot of good artistic work.

Claudia Fragapane

I'm still so sad about that fall! What is there really to say about this routine? It's just so mind-blowing! Claudia has such unique, fun, and exciting choreography! It totally works with the unusual music choice. Claudia has perfectly combines her skills with dynamic artistic work. The best sequence is definitely in the corner after her leap pass. The leap to prone position is so exciting, and is the falling spin into the back spin into the toss to her knees. She shows such delight in her movement and is just so much fun to watch!

Overall, I'd say the artistry in the floor EF was... okay. There were some really fun routines to watch, there were some fine ones, and there were some flat ones. Quality of movement definitely needs to be addressed in gymnastics as there was some fairly stiff work. The best routines in this final were exciting and crowd-pleasing ones as opposed to elegant ones, which were strangely lacking. Performance quality was good, as a lot of the gymnasts seemed to really enjoy what they were doing and drew in the audience to watch.

MostepanovaFan-Style Rankings After Worlds

If you aren't aware of MostepanovaFan's YouTube channel, I suggest you go check it out. Lots of wonderful informative and entertaining videos for gymfans. One of the great kinds of videos is videos with the rankings of the most successful gymnasts by various categories. The rankings are done by individual medals from Worlds and Olympics, with Olympic medals taking precedence in ties.


Top Ten Most Successful American Gymnasts
10. Kyla Ross: 3 silver, 1 bronze
9. Mary Lou Retton: 1 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze
8. Chellsie Memmel: 2 gold, 2 silver
7. Kim Zmeskal: 3 gold, 1 bronze
6. Rebecca Bross: 2 silver, 3 bronze
5. Shawn Johnson: 3 gold, 2 silver
4. Alicia Sacramone: 2 gold, 2 silver, 2 bronze
3. Simone Biles: 5 gold, 2 silver, 1 bronze
2. Nastia Liukin: 4 gold, 6 silver, 1 bronze
1. Shannon Miller: 6 gold, 3 silver, 2 bronze

Simone is one of the top three decorated Americans after two Worlds. Not too shabby. Kyla has also overtaken Awesome Dawesome for a spot on the list.


Top Ten Most Successful Gymnasts Ever
10. Aliya Mustafina: 3 gold, 3 silver, 6 bronze
9. Elena Shushunova: 5 gold, 4 silver, 3 bronze
8. Nellie Kim: 6 gold, 4 silver, 2 bronze
7. Daniela Silivas: 9 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze
6. Lavinia Milosivici: 5 gold, 3 silver, 6 bronze
5. Gina Gogean: 6 gold, 3 silver, 6 bronze
4. Ludmilla Tourischeva: 6 gold, 5 silver, 4 bronze
3. Vera Caslavska: 10 gold, 4 silver, 1 bronze
2. Svetlana Khorkina; 11 gold, 7 silver, 2 bronze
1. Larissa Latynina: 12 gold, 8 silver, 4 bronze

The first gymnast to make the list since Khorkina retired. Shows just how special it is not only to have longevity but to medal in multiple finals in the age of specialists.


Top Ten Most Successful Gymnasts of the 2013-2016 Quad (so far)
9. Vanessa Ferrari: 1 silver
9. Bai Yawen: 1 silver
7. McKayla Maroney: 1 gold
7. Yao Jinnan: 1 gold
6. Hong Un Jong: 1 gold, 1 bronze
5. Huang Huidan: 1 gold, 1 silver
4. Larisa Iordache: 2 silver, 1 bronze
3. Kyla Ross: 3 silver, 1 bronze
2. Aliya Mustafina: 1 gold, 4 bronze
1. Simone Biles: 5 gold, 2 silver, 1 bronze

Simone is on top, duh. The only two gymnasts who have medalled this quad so far who are not on the list are Daria Spiridinova and Mykayla Skinner, who both have one bronze.

For in the Same Way You Judge Others, You Will Be Judged

I'll be making some Worlds wrap-up posts later, but first I need to address a very big problem from this Worlds.

The judging.

There were close races- the vault gold, the bars bronze, the beam gold- these were medals that could have justifiably gone to more than one person. Simone and Hong both were stellar on vault, and Simone and Bai were insanely close on beam, though they had very different approaches. Any of the gymnasts ranked third through sixth in the bars finals could have legitimately received the bronze. Close races like this are simply an aspect of gymnastics. Even though it can be disappointing to lose the coin toss, they are a fair and even healthy part of gymnastics.

And then there were agendas. The judges this year very clearly did not leave their biases at the door this year. Half of the finals were very clearly marred by the judges' determination that certain gymnasts be rewarded.

Yao Jinnan was pushed by the judges in the uneven bars final. While it is true that, as I said in my earlier post, it is lovely to see her finally win through after what a rough career she's had, she was handed an undeserving win. Huang Huidan's routine was only one tenth less difficult. Her execution should have more than made up for it, and that her E score was only .033 higher than Yao's is laughable. It was absolutely more polished than Yao's. Yao missed two handstands by a fair margin, had to shuffle to get in place before her pirouettes, and lacked flight on her Tkatchev. Not only did home bias come into play- which affects all sports, not just those that are judged- but the judges actively favored Yao to beat Huang. They were eager to give her the gold as long as she did nothing major wrong, and they rewarded her over the better gymnast in the final.

Yao Jinnan, however, was far from the gymnast most favored by the judges. One gymnast was pushed blatantly almost everywhere she competed. And she was Aliya Mustafina.

This is not meant to be an attack on Aliya. She is a legendary gymnast and a lovely person. But she was given favor by the judges in many situations that were questionable to say the least.

Even in the all around final, Aliya's scores were given a bit of a bump. Her vault should in no way have scored higher than Larisa's, which was much cleaner. Her beam also scored higher than her beam from qualification despite her low standing Arabian and how much she had to bend to save her Onodi, while her qualification routine was much steadier. Though her scores wouldn't have affected the standings any, the judges did show their penchant for giving Aliya just that little nudge.

In both finals where she medalled, Aliya was clearly given a push to land on the podium. In the beam final, Asuka Teramoto was simply robbed. She was one of the three gymnasts in that final to hit her routine, yet she was not rewarded with one of the three medals. Asuka had a very clean routine (with an acro series) and yet somehow placed below Aliya's, which after the Arabian was very hesitant throughout and riddled with small checks after every skill that was supposed to be connected. And she DIDN'T HIT ONE OF THE REQUIREMENTS. No way should Aliya have landed on the beam podium.

While the floor final was less blatant, she still was clearly given a bit of the benefit of the doubt. Aliya certainly could have been justifiable medalist, but the super-close victory by the exact margin needed immediately after being handed the beam bronze made it eye-roll worthy. The judges were inconsistent in their level of harshness and how they chose to deduct in comparison to the former rounds of competition. Mykayla had her best floor routine certainly of the season, and arguably her entire career. Her landings were the best they have been Nanning and her leaps were about as good as she's done them this year. However, the judges gave her a lower execution score in the event final than in qualifications. Aliya, on the other hand, had a better executed performance in qualifications. She fell out of all her turns in the final and had a worse landing on her middle tumbling pass. Aliya, however, received a higher execution score in the floor final. In fact, had Aliya added the stag jump to her routine, she would have beaten Larisa Iordache for silver, which is simply preposterous. Again, it is not necessarily her placement that is suspicious, it is the inconsistency and the methods of the judges. That she got the exact margin she needed to beat Skinner just makes an even stronger case for dishonest judging.

This was (apart from the beam final- that needs to be erased from memory) an outstanding World Championships. The quality of competition and the parity of the competitors was more in the way of an Olympics. However, the judging will stand as a dark blot that will taint this competition. I hope there are disciplinary hearings and consequences for the dirty judging we saw in Nanning.

Worlds Predictions

Alright, Worlds is around the corner, it's that time of year again to make predictions!

Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Russia
Romania
Great Britain
Italy
Japan
Germany

Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. GB

The USA is the only team to have three strong routines on each event. China's bars will be a huge asset for them, but their vault and especially floor will provide problems. I was feeling GB even before the announcement over Paseka's injury was made, but now Russia is even farther in the hole. A strong Gabby Jupp should help the team out a fair bit, especially on beam, and it's pretty strong all over. Italy could also surprise, though- they looked great at Novara and Golden League.


All Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Larisa Iordache

Simone on top is pretty obvious. I'm feeling Aliya in second after how great she looked at Russian Cup- that beam especially is amazing. I kept going back and forth on bronze between Larisa, Kyla Ross, and Yao Jinnan. I think Larisa and Yao both beat Kyla in ability, but Kyla is a rock. It should be a great fight.


Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Hong Un Jong
Guilia Steingruber
Oksana Chusovitina
Ellie Black
Anna Pavlova
Dipa Karmakar

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Giulia Steingruber
3. Mykayla Skinner

This one is fairly difficult as we haven't seen some of the big contenders (Hong Un Jong, Oksana Chusovitina, Phan Thi Ha Than) in a long time, so this might have to be adapted after the Asian Games. Figuring out places 2-4 is a bit difficult. If Mykayla does her vaults like day two of P&Gs, I might give her the slight edge over Giulia. And then she could also block like at Classics and be slaughtered. Hong Un Jong hasn't competed much this year, and so the Asian Games should provide more clarity where she's concerned. I'm rooting for Dipa out of all the Prods, and Pavlova got the silver at Europeans, so hopefully that's a good sign.


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Yao Jinnan
Huang Huidan
Aliya Mustafina
Daria Spridinova
Becky Downie
Ashton Locklear
Madison Kocian
Larissa Miller

Podium:
1. Yao Jinna
2. Huang Huidan
3. Becky Downie

Ugh, why can't this final be open to more gymnasts? It's stacked! I'm feeling the Chinese going 1-2. Huang could potentially be replaced by Shang, but I'd still have her in silver. The big question make is Aliya's bars, seeing as we don't know what her routine will actually look like. She could also definitely medal. Really, anyone in this final could medal if things go their way. And of course, we can't count the Germans out to qualify. I'm excited!!


Beam
Finalists:
Kyla Ross
Simone Biles
Aliya Mustafina
Maria Kharenkova
Larisa Iordache
Andreea Munteanu
Shang Chunsong
Bai Yawen

Podium:
1. Shang Chunsong
2. Maria Kharenkova
3. Larisa Iordache

This one's near impossible to predict. Shang Chunsong has looked pretty steady this year, where as Larisa and Maria have both had some issues, but her scores were also merciless last year. But then again she's competing at home this year. Maria and Larisa are both obvious picks, but can definitely be inconsistent. Kyla, on the other hand, is very consistent, but her difficulty puts her down in the favorites list. Simone's new beam could definitely put her on the podium if she has a solid effort, but she really should take out that wolf hop. It does her no favors. We of course have no idea what incarnation of her routine Aliya will bring to the table, but the reigning champion (I still can't get over this) can't be counted out. Andreea Munteanu and Bai Yawen both can't be counted out either with good difficulty and beautiful execution. And then of course, there are the Lauren Mitchells and Ellie Blacks who could sneak into the final. This one's incredibly wide open, and basically any combination of gymnasts who can be expected to final would be a conceivable podium.


Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Giulia Steingruber
Vanessa Ferrari
Larisa Iordache
Claudia Fragapane
Marta Pihan-Kulesza
Shang Chunsong

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Vanessa Ferrari

The first six on the list are almost certain to qualify, and the last two spots are fairly open. Lauren Mitchell might be able to snag a spot, Aliya did well in the floor final at Russian Cup, and in my dreams Ellie Black makes it into the finals again. Unfortunately, Mai Murakami doesn't look like she has good enough tumbling this year for the final. Simone winning is another obvious choice. Larisa's been super confident on floor this year and scoring consistently in the high 14s. Vanessa has also been strong and consistent, and word is going around that apparently she's upgrading, which could put her in favor over Larisa. I would cry tears of joy if Claudia were to medal.