The Weirdest Worlds EVER!

Yeah, I know I'm about a week after what could be considered reasonable timing for this post, but The Gymternet just started post-Worlds coverage as has The Couch Gymnast, so I feel justified in that.

The Good Surprises

• SANNE WEVERS HAS A WORLD BEAM MEDAL!!!!
• Great Britain got a team medal on both sides
• Brenna Dowell has officially competed at a World Championships and got the pike double front named after her with only the clapping of the audience as her track
• Sanne Wevers got a SILVER on BEAM
• The Netherlands qualified directly to Rio!! And were represented in three individual finals.
• Shang Chunsong is suddenly a beast
• Gabby won the AA silver
• Vika didn't fall of the beam in a major international event final.
• Farah Ann Abdul Hadi earned a higher AA total than either of the "Belorussians."
• Did I mention Sanne Wevers is A WORLD MEDALIST ON BEAM?

The Bad Surprises

• Romania only qualifying in 13th. If the Tokyo qualifying rules were implemented this quad, they wouldn't be going to Rio.
• On the flip-side of the Netherlands qualifying to the final, Brazil was SO CLOSE!
• Flava-Flav coming in dead last in the AA final.
• Aly not making a single individual final.
• Brenna falling twice on her UB routine (though admittedly, that can't be considered too shocking)
• Only one Russian in the AA final
• Simone grabbed the beam and landed her sisone in the red in the AA final

The Just Weird

• Russia was laughing and smiling after coming in fourth?
• Russia had fewer falls in qualifications than the US?
• Simone was 2-per-ed out of the UB final with China benefiting?
• There was a FOUR-WAY TIE?

The Top 5 Weirdest Things That Happened:

5. China benefited from an American being 2-per-ed out of the UB final

4. Simone had two big errors in the AA final

3. Russia was more consistent than the US in qualifications

2. Great Britain won the team bronze

1. A FOUR-WAY TIE

Team: The competition for second through fourth was amazing. The US, China, and Great Britain all had pretty much the best competition they could reasonably expect, so it was great to see them rewarded for it. It was also very exciting to see Canada sneaking up the rankings in a couple of rounds! And we had the Netherlands making everything pretty, even if they didn't catch lightning in a bottle like they did in qualification. I think Russia seemed a bit cavalier, and Seda was the only one who really seemed to care about their performance. But it was nice to see them take it in stride.

All Around: It's so disappointing that Simone had such big errors, but she still managed to get her highest score of a Worlds all around final yet! Ridiculous! Someone made the point that Simone tends to peak earlier in the season, so hopefully that is a good sign for next year. Larisa's fight to the podium was so wonderful! She's the first from outside the top group to make the podium in years, and it was such a triumphant victory! Speaking of gymnasts coming from outside the top group, so many of them were able to climb the rankings this year! Half of the gymnasts in the top eight who get recognized were from lower-ranked groups, and three of the top ten were from the bottom group! Unfortunately, the scores needed to get into the AA final were quite high, and they weren't sustained in the final itself, but the fluidity of the placements between qualifications and the final still shows a good competition. And to round of the medalists, we have Gabby. Long may she reign. She proved herself so well at these Worlds even after a rough training.

Vault: I'm of the mind that Hong Un Jong was the rightful winner of this one. But I also just love her vaulting. It's also disappointing that Simone wasn't able to win because of her lower difficulty when she has such superior technique and execution. When will she upgrade? But either way, this was by far the most exciting vault final in a long time! The podium was so close! Also, I just love Ellie Downie's vaulting. I would not be at all surprised to see her with upgrades next year, she's got such great power and technique. Giulia's injury was horrible, but at least she's supposed to be in fairly decent shape and not too badly injured. Ah, I miss the final last year when no one was injured.

Uneven Bars: Oh my goodness, THIS FINAL! No falls, and a FOUR-WAY TIE! It's too bad about Sophie Scheder messing up her dismount, but it is nice to know that that was the biggest error of the final. I think we can all pretty much agree that Spiridonova and Kocian were not on the same level as Fan Yilin and Vika. But here's my perspective: Fan Yilin and Vika won the gold anyway. So while it wasn't necessarily the most accurate judging, when the gymnasts who were overscored didn't affect the placing of the gymnasts who were better anyway, why can't we just appreciate the fact that we witnessed a four-way tie and gymnastics history? It's not like four-way ties are going to become a common thing. With the exception of Scheder's dismount, everyone had a great routine in this final, and it will definitely be one I'll watch over and over again as the years go by. And ruby made it with her wonderful routine!

Balance Beam: SANNE WEVERS WON THE SILVER! My delusional dream is now a reality! And so nothing else that happened in this final makes me at all unhappy. Honestly, it was better than I was worried it might be. With this group of eight gymnasts, who would stay on was seriously a crap shoot. I was going into this final with the mindset that Simone would be the only gymnast to stay on just because that was a legitimate possibility and I didn't want to get my hopes up. So honestly, I'm pleased with four of them staying on. Also, Pualine Schaerffer got a medal for Germany and that was so wonderful! And Vika didn't fall in a major international beam final, so that's more than could have been expected. So yeah, this final was pretty bad, but I wasn't expecting better. And Sanne medalled! So I really can't look at this final with any objectivity or any disappointment that anything else happened. She could have been the only one to stay on and I would have been happy.

Floor: I still haven't seen this final in whole: I missed the beginning of the final as I tried to get the mobile stream up, and I couldn't watch the last four routines with music because I was watching it in public. However, I have seen all of the routines (with music) at this point, though I still don't have a great perspective on it. No falls! The only World floor final this quad with not a single fall! Simone obviously was the deserving champion, she put on her usual awesome display. As to the debate over the bronze (and silver?) medals, my opinion is that Maggie, Sae, and Shang all had routines of pretty much the same quality, and so whoever took the bronze took it rightfully. It's sad, but true: sometimes a medal could go more than one way. Also, overall, the E scores were pretty high in this final, which was nice to see. And who doesn't like just watching Lieke's routine?

My favorite final: Bars. Only one major error which wasn't even that big comparatively and a four-way tie. This is one of my favorite finals of all time.

My least favorite final: Beam. Though, as I said earlier, I'm still not that unhappy with it. Sanne!

Overall, I really enjoyed these Worlds. The competition was generally pretty strong and so much unexpected happened! And there were people who thought this Worlds was boring.

WHEN WILL MARTHA NAME THE FREAKING ALTERNATE?!?

I spent all last night in anticipation of the name of the alternate today. UGH! When is it coming??? I was completely on the Maggie train, but Lauren said today that she'd pick Gabby based on how training has gone, and I can't say I disagree. Gabby's awesome. Don't get me wrong. But there are six other awesome gymnasts on this team and a crap ton of other awesome gymnasts left at home who didn't even get to go to Glasgow. If Maggie and Aly are both going to do the AA, it just doesn't make any sense to make Mykayla the alternate when the specialists are both UB workers and one wouldn't be able to compete them. I still like the idea of putting Maggie up on beam because I think she would be steady. She's gotten a little bare-bones with her routine, but I think that's great preparation for putting her in the leadoff position. She's also good backup on floor, but if Mykayla's on the competitive team I don't think she'd be used. Gabby and Maggie would both be in the running for the leadoff position on beam. I also don't see the logic in taking Mykayla over Bailie to use her as the alternate. Bailie would be more reliable to use on any event, and as such a much better alternate. I'm honestly starting to wonder if Matha's just decided, "We're wiping the floor with everyone else without trying anyway, I'll just play with everyone for my last Worlds as NTC." Even if I didn't agree with her, I always at least used to be able to understand her logic. Some of her decisions just don't make any sense to me recently.

On another note, vault has suddenly become the most exciting final, which I was not prepared for. Dipa's upgraded? CHUSO'S DOING A PROD?!? What the heck happened?
New predictions:
Finalists-
Simone Biles
Hong Un Jong
Maria Paseka
Chuso
Dipa Karmakar
Marcia Videaux
Giulia Steingruber
Mykayla Skinner (if she's not the alternate)
Wang Yan (if she is)

Podium-
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Simone Biles
3. Maria Paseka
I still see the podium the same, but so much closer for the podium now....

How do you solve a problem like America?

Not because the US is in bad shape at all. Because they're just so good. How the heck is a decision supposed to come together? The US is in the enviable position of not having a bad choice. Any combination of gymnasts going to the Worlds selection camp would stroll away with the gold. Martha is not needed this year- the US could just draw names out of a hat. But of course, this is Martha we're talking about, and there will be a long series of observations and calculations before coming to a decision. Ultimately, there are two strategies most people seem to be speculating: take all the top five AAers with a sixth member who may or may not be used, or maximize total medal haul since the team gold is fairly well in the bag.

In terms of the first strategy, I don't think it makes sense to have the sixth member compete in qualifications if all five of the top AAers are brought. It just doesn't make sense to bring Gabby, Bailie, or Maggie if she weren't to compete all around in qualification, and while Aly is the gymnast whose strengths would most suit competing as a specialist in qualification (especially if the standard strategy of bringing a bar worker for the sixth member is utilized), she makes the least sense to drop from the AA lineup, in my opinion. If the accepted strategy of bringing a bars specialist happens, it would also make no sense for Gabby or Bailie to drop bars, and Maggie makes the least sense to bring if she's not going to compete AA, in my opinion. However, I would rank Aly as more important than Maggie to compete AA, and if a bars specialist is going to compete, one of those two would be the choice to drop bars. In terms of this strategy, it just makes more sense to me for the sixth member not to compete. For this strategy, the team I would pick: Simone, Aly, Gabby, Maggie, Bailie, Maddie K, alternate Mykayla Skinner. I think this is probably the most likely scenario.

However, I have more sympathy with the second strategy. The US will have a strong second AAer regardless, and with the order changing every time they compete, putting them all up in qualification still won't meant that the gymnast competing in the final is the one who would score the highest that day. The US is head and shoulders above the rest in the team, any second AAer would be likely to finish with a medal, and even make it a 1-2 finish (especially with these rumors Aliya might not compete), and so it would seem that bringing home the most medals possible would make sense as a top priority. And ultimately, why bring Maddie Kocian to Worlds just to have her not compete her bars routine, but it still wouldn't make sense to bring all the top five AAers and cut one out of the AA. To pick gymnasts for this strategy, we need to look at the "open" EF spots. On floor, Simone and Aly pretty much have the two spots on lockdown. They have their names on the beam spots as well, though I think Aly could be kicked out of her spot. On vault, there's only Simone. On bars, Gabby I think would probably be able to scrape in, but she also might not if the US puts up a bars specialist. On vault, Mykayla is the only one who could step into the second spot, and she has a nice history of scoring better on vault internationally than domestically. She also has a killer floor which likely wouldn't make the final but could be a great addition to the TF lineup. However, she did also tie with Bailie at P&Gs, so that makes her floor less of a commodity. Maddie and Ashton would both be gunning for a UB final spot and could compete for a medal, but I don't see both on the team this year. Maddie has won domestically, though I think Ashton might be more favored internationally. If she can add upgrades into her routine for camp, that might set her over Maddie. However, we know Martha likes AAers. But, there are already lots of AAers who can fill in wherever. For beam, I think Alyssa Baumann has a good shot of beating Aly, as does Kyla if she competes like she did day 2. If Kyla can get her routines together for camp (PLEASE), she could definitely have an edge for her combination of bars and beam, which Alyssa can't provide. I do think beam will be the hardest place for a specialist to make it, though.
Of course, for this strategy to go through, not all of the top five AAers can go. Aly is set for the team, I'd say. Her floor is medal-worthy, she has an Amanar, she hits for the team, I'd pick her for the second AAer, and her experience and leadership is highly valuable. The other three become more tricky. Gabby has bars (Bailie was very lucky to get the bronze with her error night two, I'd say), but she'd be a second pick everywhere else. She has proven that she can stay on beam now, but she was fairly tentative both nights. Her vault is good but she doesn't have the Amanar, and her turns that count toward her D score on floor aren't always solid. Bailie might have gotten lucky to come in third on bars, but they are strong. Her scores are comparable to Gabby's there and she could have more sway with her total AA set. Her floor can be a top routine, and her beam can be stronger than Gabby's. However, if Mykayla goes Bailie's floor would be less valuable and her beam composition (the layout especially) is dragging her down and can cause hiccups for her. And then there's Maggie. She has an Amanar, though that's the only event where she'd really be gunning for top position. However, she has good utility player advantages. Her beam especially could prove to be useful in a team final setting. Her floor also has the potential to be usable, though Bailie has the upper hand of the top AAers, and Mykayla does of the specialists. I think I'd say that Maggie makes more sense than Bailie. She has an Amanar, her bars aren't as good but they're usable, and I trust her more on beam. Bailie is stronger on floor, but if Mykayla goes, her floor wouldn't be necessary. And then there's Gabby. Somehow, it seems much easier to compare Maggie and Bailie than to trow Gabby in the mix. Her bars are strong, but I'm not sure where else she'd be used. If she'd only be used on bars in the TF, Maddie and Ashton might as well both go and have Maddie do AA in qualification. Actually, I think that might make more sense to me.

So, the team I'd pick (but which I doubt Martha will): Simone, Aly, Maggie, Maddie K, Ashton, Mykayla, Bailie/Gabby alternate (dang, what an alternate!)
VT: Maggie, Mykayla, Simone (quals: Maddie, Aly)
UB: Maggie, Maddie, Ashton (quals: Aly, Simone)
BB: Maggie, Aly, Simone (quals: Maddie, Mykayla)
FX: Mykayla, Aly, Simone (qals: Maddie, Maggie)

Six is starting to feel like an awfully small number.

2015 Worlds Predictions

So, for the first day of the year, I decided to do some crazy early Worlds predictions, just for fun.

USA Team
Simone Biles, Bailie Key, Nia Dennis, Kyla Ross, Mykayla Skinner, Ashton Locklear/Gabby Douglas
VT: Key/Dennis, Skinner, Biles
UB: Ross, Dennis, Locklear/Douglas
BB: Ross, Biles, Key
FX: Key, Dennis, Biles
The US literally has over 50 combinations of gymnasts expected to compete this year which could stroll away with the gold. Even if Simone pulls and Ebee-style "See you at UCLA, losers" retirement this year, the US would still be the top pick for gold. Raisman could be brought for BB/FX over a bars specialist. We've seen Locklear working on some things in IG which could put her out of one-event territory. Basically, at this point, the possibilities are endless. I've taken the plunge with the 'kaylas. I never thought I'd put My on a team over Mc, but if she makes a quarter of the improvement she made last year this year, she should take the spot.

China Team
Yao Jinnan, Wang Yan, Shang Chunson, Huang Huidan, two of Tan Jiaxin, Deng Yalan, and Bai Yawen
VT: Tan, Deng, Wang (Yao goes up first if Tan and Deng aren't both on the team)
UB: Tan/Shang, Huang, Yao
BB: any combination of gymnasts not including Deng or Tan
FX: Yao/Tan, Shang, Wang
I know a lot of people don't like Shang/don't see her on another team, but she can tumble, so she has a spot on the team. If Tan does in fact get that Amanar, she'll definitely take one of those last two spots. Wang Yan will be like a ray of sunshine for China on their trouble events. There's no way she's not on the team.

Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Seda Tutkhalyan, Maria Kharenkova, Ksenia Afanasyeva, Alla Sosnitskaya, Viktoria Komova
VT: Mustafina, Afanasyeva, Sosnitskaya
UB: Tutkhalyan, Mustafina, Komova
BB: Tutkhalyan/Komova, Mustafina, Kharenkova
FX: Mustafina/Tutkhalyan, Sosnitskaya, Afanasyeva
This is probably the hardest team for me to predict just because everyone is as likely to be in Germany having surgery as at Round Lake. Aside from Aliya, who probably would have competed through that ACL tear if she could have, I'm pretty confident in Tutkhalyan, Kharenkova, and Sosnitskaya to still be in one piece for Glasgow. Afan just competed a 6.0 difficulty at Voronin, and considering Valentina's enthusiasm to put her on the Nanning team, I expect she'll be in Glasgow. Komova I don't know about, but she's actually put together four routines and hasn't tripped over any mats lately, so I'll go with her. That first beam spot is still kind of scary, and Afan could potentially go up if she is consistently hitting a beam routine this year. I'd love to see Grishina come back and take one of the spots.

Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Laura Jurca, Andreea Iridon, Alina Stanila, Andreea Munteanu, Diana Bulimar
VT: Stanila, Jurca, Iordache
UB: Bulimar, Iridon, Iordache
BB: any combination of gymnasts not including Stanila
FX: Bulimar, Jurca, Iordache
Didi needs to be in one piece for Glasgow. She's had the worst luck! She really needs to be on the team for bars. With her they have a respectable lineup. Without her, it could be a tense rotation. Iridon and the newly amazing Iordache should be a strong back end, though, regardless of the first spot, but they're podium-worthy with Didi's bars. I mean, a mediocre first routine would still keep them podium-worthy, but they'd be at the top of the silver-and-bronze pack with Didi.

Italy Team
Vanessa Ferrari, Erika Fasana, Iosra Abdelaziz, Elisa Meneghini, Carlotta Ferlito, Martina Rizzelli
VT: Rizzelli, Ferrari, Fasana
UB: Fasana, Ferrari, Abdelaziz
BB: Meneghini, Ferlito, Ferrari
FX: Meneghini/Ferlito, Fasana, Ferrari
Eh, it's a lineup. Putting Fasana on bars is not ideal, to say the least. But hey, that's the point of this, to just put something together and laugh come October.

Great Britain Team
Ellie Downie, Becky Downie, Rebecca Tunney, Gabby Jupp, Claudia Fragapane, Amy Tinkler/Tyesha Mattis
VT: Tunney, Tinkler/Mattis, E Downie
UB: E Downie, Tunney, B Downie
BB: E Downie, Jupp, B Downie
FX: E Downie, Tinkler/Mattis, Fragapane
Team GB has a lot of potential for this year. If they can keep beam under control, they should be in the silver-and-bronze pack with the rest of the Big Four. The Downies should be the cornerstones of this team. Tunney and another new senior should be throwing down strong routines on their best events. Jupp is going to fill out the beam rotation and help keep it from being too tense. Fragapane isn't entirely necessary, but I don't see her being left home.



Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Romania
Russia
Italy
Great Britain
Japan
Germany

Podium:
1. USA
2. Romania
3. China
The USA is obvious for the gold. If Didi can break the curse and actually make Worlds this year (and no one else takes her place in being injured), I think they have the best team of the rest of the world. No real trouble spots. Wang Yan's inclusion alone will greatly improve China. I think Great Britain could be close behind them, but I'll give the edge to China now.


All Around
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Bailie Key
Of course, now that Aliya actually has a coach, she could be on here as well. But at this moment, Larisa and Bailie outstrip her. Simone will win if she goes clean, as always, and with a Moors and possibly a TTY, who knows what will happen. I really want Rebecca Andrade on this podium. The all around should be fierce this year.


Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Mykayla Skinner
Hong Un Jong
Wang Yan
Giulia Steingruber
Oksana Chusovitina
Yessenia Ferrera
Deng Yalan/ Alla Sosnitskaya

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Mykayla Skinner
I really don't know about bronze. Skinner would seem the best choice, but if Steingruber can ger her DTY back, she'll be a strong challenge, and Yessenia Ferrera and Wang Yan can both be expected to put up a strong challenge. This should definitely be the best vault final in a long time.


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Yao Jinnan
Huang Huidan
Viktoria Komova
Aliya Mustafina
Becky Downie
Rebecca Tunney
Ashton Locklear/Gabby Douglas
Lisa Katharina Hill

Podium:
1. Yao Jinnan
2. Viktoria Komova
3. Huang Huidan
This should be another super strong bars final. I expect both the Chinese to medal again. Komova might need some upgrades for that silver, but this is her event. I'm not too concerned.


Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Bailie Key
Larisa Iordache
Maria Kharenkova
Seda Tutkhalyan/Aliya Mustafina
Wang Yan
Shang Chunsong/Bai Yawen
Andreea Munteanu

Podium:
1. Maria Kharenkova
2. Bailie Key
3. Larisa Iordache
I'm predicting Larisa will have a fairly large wobble but not fall this year. This has the potential to be a great match-up, but there is also some splat potential. If Seda can somehow do some witchcraft to hit in both qualifications and finals, she should be on the podium. But that would probably require some witchcraft. Bailie Key should be gorgeous and steady as always. Wang Yan could also upset for the podium if other people are having an off day, as could Simone. Should be interesting, at least, and somewhat less of a disaster than last year's.


Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Larisa Iordache
Mykayla Skinner
Vanessa Ferrari
Giulia Steingruber
Claudia Fragapane
Erika Fasana
Yessenia Ferrera

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Yessenia Ferrera
I really want Yessenia to medal here. She's got mind-blowing tumbling and is an amazing performer. She definitely has the potential. Again, Simone is the obvious pick here. And Larisa is the obvious second place. The other women I have listed are all great too, but their execution doesn't match up with these three. I think Fasana might surprise us, though.


Really, looking at the gymnasts I have predicted to make finals, this should be an epic Worlds. Maybe if we burn some incense over the beam or something, it might not be such a splat fest of a final. Vault, bars, and beam should have some good battles. Floor is more locked up, but I love those gymnasts and their work anyway, so I'll still love that final, regardless of what you guys will think. The team and all around titles are fairly well spoken for if there aren't major upset injuries or weird off days on the day of the final, but the fight for silver and bronze should be great.