The Core
Simone had one of her more "meh" nights. Honestly, I was a bit scared when they showed her Cheng- her block was way off to the side and it looked like her hand was close to missing the table. Hope she fixes that tomorrow, I'm more concerned from a safety standpoint there than anything else. Otherwise, her biggest error was of course beam, where she had the wonky wolf turn. Still held it, which is better than she's done in some bad beam situations domestically before, and what Martha would want were that in the team final. And the dismount!!!! Has it always been that high and floaty or have I just been too wrapped up in myself to notice? (I will love you if you get that reference.) She covered well otherwise, and it overall wasn't her best night, but I'd say it was about on par with her title-winning performance in the Worlds AA last year. She still had no falls and the best routines in the country on two events, so even if she wasn't Simone, her place should have been safe.
Aly had a pretty standard day, which puts her toward the top of the mental game tally. She had errors on vault and beam, but put up some of her best work on bars and killed floor. I think her vault was probably her worst of the domestic season so far, so it would be nice to see that back where it was tomorrow. Her scoring was pretty much what can be expected internationally, and she did precisely what she needed to do to keep herself a lock, which is just keep chugging along.
Laurie, on the other hand, was a bit gifted in scoring. Her vault was definitely not the best DTY of the night... I'd say the other ones that were broadcast were pretty much all better. So on that front... I'll be getting to that later. While she had some hiccups, she definitely acquitted herself well on the grit front- she made it through the rest of her bars routine calmly after her major break, and covered fabulously on her LOSO series on beam. I love the way she pulled a Chellsie Memmel 2006 TF and was all, "What error? No wobble, see!" As for her scoring, I saw a conspiracy theory that actually seems rather plausible... there's been a lot of talk going around about how the business side and marketability might affect who goes up for the AA, and maybe Laurie's scores are being inflated so the results override the commercial issue and she gets to be one of the three AAers.
On the #Mashton front, Martha's basically confirmed that Maddie pretty much sealed the deal last night. She's been more than just throwing but slamming down the gauntlet on bars the last couple go-rounds. She's always had the upper hand because we all know Martha is against true specialists on 5-person teams. The thing Ashton had going for her in the full team picture was the better beam hit record, which was erased last night (and then NBC decided to Hollie Vise it, great). It would take something unforeseen tomorrow to get Maddie off.
The Professor and Mary Ann
All that leaves one spot for the team, and the remaining gymnasts are in a bit of an odd position as they are pretty much all only big standouts on one event, which is in part due to the ridiculous strength of the 4-person core and in part due to the depth on each event.
So, where to make a splash? The preferable routines to replace would be Laurie's vault and Simone's bars, and I also think it would be nice to put someone else up for Laurie's floor, because again, that score is a little fantastical, but that doesn't really seem to be what USAG is going for and it's definitely a lower priority. As for whether vault or bars is more important, I think Simone's across-the-board strength make vault the more important from a score standpoint, but Martha will probably want to rest Simone on bars, so that I think will be higher from a Martha standpoint.
Gabby continues not to bring her best to the table. She had wonky turns on floor and a bunch of weird D-score happenings and a fall on beam, which are slightly less important events for her but still doesn't look very good. People (Martha, specifically) keep pulling the "she peaks later in the season" card, but at what point does that not make up for lackluster performances all season? This point in the process last quad, Gabby was consistently top 2, not outside the top 5. She was on an upward trajectory during the domestic season, and that hasn't been the case this year. And if we're letting gymnasts on the team based on how they might improve in the next month, doesn't it make at least as much sense to give that benefit of the doubt to Maggie since she was injured? But the good news for Gabby is that the preferably replaced spots are on her strong events. I think she had the stronger DTY last night when compared to Laurie, and her bars are good for a TF spot to give Simone a rest.
Maggie is looking good post-injury, but she's still racing the clock in terms of being back in time. She and Gabby had fairly even nights, I think, though Gabby is in the lead by 3 tenths. I disagree with them having the same score on beam, because Maggie had the more solid routine once you take into account their falls but only 1 tenth higher in E, but that's not the event that's going to make or break this puzzle. Her vault also tied with Gabby, with Gabby having a bit tighter form and Maggie having a bit better dynamics. Again, I think she had a stronger vault then Laurie. Her bars were okay, not great, sub-in-for-Simone-able, but there would be a deficit. All we know about her floor is that it was a hit, so without having anything to look at, there's no possible discussion of how realistic her scoring was there and how she compared to others, but we do know she has the fourth-highest floor D score. It's just such a shame that she got injured, because she would 90% likely have made herself a lock for the fifth spot by now otherwise.
I had sympathies for Mykayla in the last spot, and a lot of people who didn't previously have joined me in them after last night as she really made a push for herself and was one of only a few athletes to put out her best stuff. She would bring another 6.0+ vault to both the literal and proverbial table as well as a second vault final spot, though it would definitely be harder for her to medal there this time around than it was in Nanning, even if her Amanar returns, especially if Steingruber brings the front double. But even then, let's not forget she has a nice history of scoring better abroad than at home on vault. Her floor scored about what it did in Nanning last night, and I think it was slightly better executed, so I think she's right about in range with maybe a tenth that could be added. And once again, after wondering what her choreographer was smoking the first time I watched it, I now kinda like her floor. Really, in terms of how well the gymnasts performed, Mykayla should have rocketed herself to Rio, but there remains the issue of Simone having to do bars in TF, and doing AA in QF, TF, AA and then 3 EFs would be quite a load. She has definitely made herself a lock for at least alternate, though. But I just love how after not even making Trials in 2012 she came back and busted her butt and is really gunning for this Olympic team.
As for Ragan... I really just don't think it's in the cards for her this year, which is sad, because she's probably my favorite of the ones who had a legitimate chance. She just doesn't really fit into this puzzle- she's sort of this quad's Sarah Finnegan in as much as she'd most likely be on the team if Aly didn't exist. Beam is just pretty well covered, and floor (which she totally should not have been half a point behind Laurie on... but again, I buy that conspiracy theory) is less important this year than vault and bars. She's not committed to Oklahoma until the 2019-2020 season, so I really hope she doesn't follow Sarah Finnegan's footsteps in dropping down to level 10 and not continuing elite, because I think she could totally have success next quad.
So, who for that final spot?
VT: I think all 3 still in the running should be able to outscore Laurie here
UB: Mykayla's not usable. Maggie is sub-in-able while not necessary to put up in quals, making that picture much easier. Gabby is definitely the best here of the 3.
FX: Laurie would outscore Gabby. Maggie and Mykayla I think could both go either way in a scoring battle with Laurie.
Ironically enough, because I was saying I didn't think Gabby fit the whole time coming into Trials, while everybody else is less pro-Gabby after last night, I'm actually more pro-Gabby. I think she could very well outscore Laurie on vault and fits in the bars picture, making her the easiest to slot in on the money events. The problem then becomes UB in quals, which would get messy. She could potentially make the EF, but under all likely circumstances wouldn't medal, and then Simone, Aly, or Laurie couldn't do AA, or Maddie couldn't qualify to the EF, which would be rather pointless, and she has a much more legitimate chance at a medal than Gabby.
Mykayla compliments Maddie well, making quals easy, and would really add to the vault lineup, but then Simone would have to do all 4 in the TF, which, in addition to all the individual finals, would be quite a load.
Maggie would also be a good compliment to Maddie in quals, and could definitely be subbed in for bars in the TF, addressing both problems. I think she should also be able to outscore Laurie on vault and has potential on floor, making her good as a team player spot. In terms of the gymnast who fits the puzzle the best, I still think Maggie takes that role, but her lack of a standout event drags her down.
Gabby slots in the most easily, Mykayla brings a good scoring advantage as well as making the quals puzzle simpler, and Maggie is the most versatile. At this point, I'd still prefer Mykayla or Maggie in the fifth spot, but I can see the advantages of all the potential teams.
Miscellaneous
- Brenna hit bars and THERE IS NO WAY TO SEE IT
- I am just in general feeling twitchy at the lack of videos of every routine I've come to expect from US domestic meets. I hate NBC!
- On the subject of hating NBC, AL CALLED SIMONE GABBY. Can that please do him in?
- I'm so happy Meals is hitting! Can she please be an alternate? Pretty please? Another most any other team would love.
- Christina is competing and was in the background of the broadcast a ton so I got to see her even if none of her routines were shown and she's beating Gowey and Schild in the AA and she's hitting!!!
- MLT just casually popping up all the time. (Even though they never show Meals. Which they should.)
- I loved everyone asking other gymnasts "Could you hear me?" when they were done with their routines
- To quote my sister, "They have a ton of weird floor music this year." I'm not particularly happy with the turn US floor routines have taken this year, they seem either to have no focus with a few crowd-pandering moves thrown in or are just old choreography thrown together.
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