Monday, June 13, 2016

Rant/USA depth analysis

So, I saw some idiot saying that the US doesn't really have depth right now, and because I'm irritable like that, I decided to do a little combination rant/analysis post to prove 'em wrong.

And because some idiot also recently submitted a confession to GFC saying the US was putting all of its eggs in one basket with Simone, let's start by talking about how there are still near limitless options with her gone. Without Simone, there are still Gabby, Aly, Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Brenna, and Mykayla at the top, and then Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals (she killed it at Classics and VT/UB workers are well suited to the team and her floor is awesome and I'll totally get all Hagrid don't-insult-Albus-Dumbledore-in-front-of-me when it comes to Meals) on the outside as well. That's 13 totally viable options to choose from. And a combination of options that would make picking out of a hat a viable option for a gold-contending team.

To prove my point, I had a little fun with a random generator and here are the five gymnasts I got: Aly, Bailie, Alyssa, Brenna, Rachel
VT: (Bailie) Alyssa, Brenna, Aly
UB: (Aly) Bailie, Rachel, Brenna
BB: (Rachel) Bailie, Aly, Alyssa
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Brenna, Aly
This team is definitely not close to as strong as the one that will be named assuming some plague doesn't befall the team or VRod doesn't hire the Russian mafia to Tanya Harding everyone, and China would definitely be narrowing in on it, but it would still be in the hunt for the top prize.

Too easy? Of course. Alright, let's constrain the team only to gymnasts who turned senior this quad, so not only eliminating Gabby and Aly, but also Brenna and Mykayla. So that leaves Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
I'd pick a team of Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, and Alyssa
VT: Alyssa/Ragan, Laurie, Maggie
UB: (Ragan) Maggie, Laurie, Maddie
BB: (Maggie) Alyssa, Laurie, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Laurie, Ragan, Maggie
And this one is stronger than my random generator team (not that surprising, really), so again, strong contenders for gold.

Still too easy? Maggie and Laurie carried that last team- let's get rid of them too. So now the group is reduced to Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
So the team I'd pick now is Ragan, Alyssa, Bailie, Maddie, and Meals
VT: Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Meals
UB: (Ragan) Bailie, Meals, Maddie
BB: (Meals) Bailie, Alyssa, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Meals, Ragan
Still four strong lineups, still expected to medal, still potential for gold.

So name me another team where you could constrain selection to only gymnasts who turned seniors this quad and THEN cut out the top three remaining AAers and still have a team that would be considered as much a lock for a medal as a team can ever be in this sport.

China:
Alright, so out goes Shang Chunsong, Tan Jiaxin, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, and Mao Yi.
The team: Chen Siyi, Fan Yilin, Huang Huidan, Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru
VT: Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru, Chen Siyi
UB: Zhu Xiofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
BB: Zhu Xiaofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
FX: Zhu Xiaofang, Chen Siyi, Liu Jinru
Bars is still great, and beam is fine enough, but they're stuck with an FTY on vault and floor is once again a weakness.

Russia:
For the Russian we-expect-80%-of-our-team-to-be-repeat-Olympians Federation, out go Aliya, Vika, Afan, Maria Bee Farm, Angelina Melnikova, Seda Tutkhalyan, and Maria Kharenkova.
The team: Natalia Kapitonova, Evgenia Shelgunova, Daria Skrypnik, Anastasia Dmitrieva, Daria Spiridonova
VT: Shelgunova, Skrypnik, Dmitrieva
UB: Skrypnik, Kapitonova, Spiridonova
BB: Spiridonova/Kapitonova, Skrypnik, Shelgunova
FX: Kapitonova, Dmitrieva, Shelgunova
Three DTYs for them and the bars lineup is still killer, but relying on Spiridonova, Kapitonova, or Skrypnik on beam is never a good idea and Shelgunova has been very up and down there this year as well, so who knows how many would stay on. Floor also has three okay routines, but is lacking any standout and would be outstripped pretty easily.

Even with these ridiculous eleventh plague of the Exodus plague on the gymnasts constraints, China and Russia would still be able to put together pretty good teams that would acquit themselves well, but with Brazil and GB mounting fierce offensives, both of them would have stiff competition for a place on the podium. But compare them to the US plague on the gymnasts team, who would still be a practical shoe-in for a medal and could mount a good offensive for gold, and it's ridiculously obvious that the US does, in fact, lead the world in depth.

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