Like with my May Rio predictions, it's the Olympic year, so why not make the most of it?
Aly Raisman
Gabby Douglas
Maggie Nichols
Laurie Hernandez
Ragan Smith
Madison Kocian
Ashton Locklear
Brenna Dowell
Mykayla Skinner
Alyssa Baumann
Rachel Gowey
Amelia Hundley
Bailie Key
Emily Schild
Simone, Aly, Gabby, Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, and Maddie I'd say are all locks. Ashton, Brenna, and Mykayla I think are all near-locks. They should be the pack of legitimate contenders for the team.
If Alyssa and Rachel keep putting together AA sets like they had at Classics, I don't think they should have any trouble making Trials, because while they're pretty much out of the team picture, they both could legitimately make good alternates, and Alyssa especially would be a perfectly fine team member if the situation demanded. Meals I also expect to get a spot fairly easily. She might not have an Amanar, but her DTY is big and easy, and she can swing bars nicely; in addition, she's gotten more solid on beam and has a history of strong floor work.
Bailie, of course, we have yet to see in competition this year, but her bars from PT at Classics looked very nice and along the lines of last year's work. If she comes back as expected, she should be in with the three above.
So that leaves one filler spot. I went with Schild because she has strong vault and bars and is okay on the other two events. I think if the US experienced some sort of annihilation of their gymnastics team and only five of the gymnasts at Trials could compete at the end, and one of those gymnasts had to be the filler spot, Martha would want Emily because she has two strong events and hit beam both times she's competed on it this season.
I think the other options for the filler spot would be Jazmyn Forberg and maybe Christina Desiderio. Jazzy had a really rough Classics, but if she doesn't keep melting down at Nationals, she has some strong routines with good difficulty. Christina also has a good AA set, and she scored above 14 on all her routines at Classics. Having a steady Nationals might put her in the mix for Trials.
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