Not because the US is in bad shape at all. Because they're just so good. How the heck is a decision supposed to come together? The US is in the enviable position of not having a bad choice. Any combination of gymnasts going to the Worlds selection camp would stroll away with the gold. Martha is not needed this year- the US could just draw names out of a hat. But of course, this is Martha we're talking about, and there will be a long series of observations and calculations before coming to a decision. Ultimately, there are two strategies most people seem to be speculating: take all the top five AAers with a sixth member who may or may not be used, or maximize total medal haul since the team gold is fairly well in the bag.
In terms of the first strategy, I don't think it makes sense to have the sixth member compete in qualifications if all five of the top AAers are brought. It just doesn't make sense to bring Gabby, Bailie, or Maggie if she weren't to compete all around in qualification, and while Aly is the gymnast whose strengths would most suit competing as a specialist in qualification (especially if the standard strategy of bringing a bar worker for the sixth member is utilized), she makes the least sense to drop from the AA lineup, in my opinion. If the accepted strategy of bringing a bars specialist happens, it would also make no sense for Gabby or Bailie to drop bars, and Maggie makes the least sense to bring if she's not going to compete AA, in my opinion. However, I would rank Aly as more important than Maggie to compete AA, and if a bars specialist is going to compete, one of those two would be the choice to drop bars. In terms of this strategy, it just makes more sense to me for the sixth member not to compete. For this strategy, the team I would pick: Simone, Aly, Gabby, Maggie, Bailie, Maddie K, alternate Mykayla Skinner. I think this is probably the most likely scenario.
However, I have more sympathy with the second strategy. The US will have a strong second AAer regardless, and with the order changing every time they compete, putting them all up in qualification still won't meant that the gymnast competing in the final is the one who would score the highest that day. The US is head and shoulders above the rest in the team, any second AAer would be likely to finish with a medal, and even make it a 1-2 finish (especially with these rumors Aliya might not compete), and so it would seem that bringing home the most medals possible would make sense as a top priority. And ultimately, why bring Maddie Kocian to Worlds just to have her not compete her bars routine, but it still wouldn't make sense to bring all the top five AAers and cut one out of the AA. To pick gymnasts for this strategy, we need to look at the "open" EF spots. On floor, Simone and Aly pretty much have the two spots on lockdown. They have their names on the beam spots as well, though I think Aly could be kicked out of her spot. On vault, there's only Simone. On bars, Gabby I think would probably be able to scrape in, but she also might not if the US puts up a bars specialist. On vault, Mykayla is the only one who could step into the second spot, and she has a nice history of scoring better on vault internationally than domestically. She also has a killer floor which likely wouldn't make the final but could be a great addition to the TF lineup. However, she did also tie with Bailie at P&Gs, so that makes her floor less of a commodity. Maddie and Ashton would both be gunning for a UB final spot and could compete for a medal, but I don't see both on the team this year. Maddie has won domestically, though I think Ashton might be more favored internationally. If she can add upgrades into her routine for camp, that might set her over Maddie. However, we know Martha likes AAers. But, there are already lots of AAers who can fill in wherever. For beam, I think Alyssa Baumann has a good shot of beating Aly, as does Kyla if she competes like she did day 2. If Kyla can get her routines together for camp (PLEASE), she could definitely have an edge for her combination of bars and beam, which Alyssa can't provide. I do think beam will be the hardest place for a specialist to make it, though.
Of course, for this strategy to go through, not all of the top five AAers can go. Aly is set for the team, I'd say. Her floor is medal-worthy, she has an Amanar, she hits for the team, I'd pick her for the second AAer, and her experience and leadership is highly valuable. The other three become more tricky. Gabby has bars (Bailie was very lucky to get the bronze with her error night two, I'd say), but she'd be a second pick everywhere else. She has proven that she can stay on beam now, but she was fairly tentative both nights. Her vault is good but she doesn't have the Amanar, and her turns that count toward her D score on floor aren't always solid. Bailie might have gotten lucky to come in third on bars, but they are strong. Her scores are comparable to Gabby's there and she could have more sway with her total AA set. Her floor can be a top routine, and her beam can be stronger than Gabby's. However, if Mykayla goes Bailie's floor would be less valuable and her beam composition (the layout especially) is dragging her down and can cause hiccups for her. And then there's Maggie. She has an Amanar, though that's the only event where she'd really be gunning for top position. However, she has good utility player advantages. Her beam especially could prove to be useful in a team final setting. Her floor also has the potential to be usable, though Bailie has the upper hand of the top AAers, and Mykayla does of the specialists. I think I'd say that Maggie makes more sense than Bailie. She has an Amanar, her bars aren't as good but they're usable, and I trust her more on beam. Bailie is stronger on floor, but if Mykayla goes, her floor wouldn't be necessary. And then there's Gabby. Somehow, it seems much easier to compare Maggie and Bailie than to trow Gabby in the mix. Her bars are strong, but I'm not sure where else she'd be used. If she'd only be used on bars in the TF, Maddie and Ashton might as well both go and have Maddie do AA in qualification. Actually, I think that might make more sense to me.
So, the team I'd pick (but which I doubt Martha will): Simone, Aly, Maggie, Maddie K, Ashton, Mykayla, Bailie/Gabby alternate (dang, what an alternate!)
VT: Maggie, Mykayla, Simone (quals: Maddie, Aly)
UB: Maggie, Maddie, Ashton (quals: Aly, Simone)
BB: Maggie, Aly, Simone (quals: Maddie, Mykayla)
FX: Mykayla, Aly, Simone (qals: Maddie, Maggie)
Six is starting to feel like an awfully small number.
