Team Finalists
USA
Russia
China
Japan
Brazil
France
Great Britain
Belgium
I'm calling for Belgium here. Look how well they did at Euros with two and a half gymnasts. They're an expected outsider, but I think they call pull it off. Canada's probably the more expected contender, though.
Team Podium
1. USA
2. Russia
3. Japan
China has serious vault and floor issues. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked to see an outsider pull off a silver, but Russia has high D vaults and better hitting records with Gelya suddenly becoming strong, Aliya back, and their awesome Euros performance, making them look awesome. If the US didn't have Simone, I think Russia could make a serious push for gold.
All Around Podium
1. Simone Biles
2. Mai Murakami
3. Morgan Hurd
I'm giving Morgi the edge for making the AA final after seeing Riley's vault struggles in podium training. We could very well have a one-American podium this year, but I do think they still come in as favorites for two. Mai is continuing her quest of awesome from last year, and if she can make it through clean this year, I think she should be on the podium. I'd also not be at all shocked to see Aliya suddenly a four-eventer instead of the announced two-eventer and sweep in for a medal. Honestly, at this point it might be more surprising if that didn't happen. For other potential medalists, obviously Melanie DJDS, Gelya, and Ellie Black would all be foreseeable.
Vault Finalists
Simone Biles
Shallon Olsen
Yeo Seo-jeong
Pyon Rye Yong
Oksana Chusovitina
Angelina Melnikova
Lilia Akhaimova
Liu Jinru
Vault Podium
1. Simone Biles
2. Yeo Seo-jeong
3. Shallon Olsen
I would rather see either of the other Asian Games medalists than Shallon on the podium, but I think she probably has the edge. But I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them either. I'm expecting the medalists to come from that group of five.
Bars Finalists
Nina Derwael
Riley McCusker
Simone Biles
Becky Downie
Liu Tinting
Luo Huan
Aliya Mustafina
Angelina Melnikova
I'm not willing to predict Becky and Jonna both making the final. That's too big a hope-setter. Becky has the better record of making finals.
Bars Podium
1. Nina Derwael
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Riley McCusker
And I'm also definitely not predicting Becky medaling. We all know too well for that. Nina has her killer routine which she has been slaying with this year. Aliya's gonna Aliya, so there's that. Riley has a good routine and has had pretty much no issues with it this year.
Beam
As standard practice whenever a certain beam specialist competes, I'll be doing a fantasy podium of everyone I expect not to be competitive.
1. Ilaria Kaeslin
2. Vasiliki Milliousi
3. Brooklyn Moors
Floor Finalists
Simone Biles
Mai Murakami
Melanie De Jesus Dos Santos
Grace McCallum
Flavia Saraiva
Angelina Melnikova
Denisa Golgota
Marcia Videaux
Outside the first few, I'm not seeing a super clear group of finalists. I think there will be two Americans, and right now I'm feeling Grace, but either Riley or Morgi could make it too.
Floor Podium
1. Simone Biles
2. Mai Murakami
3. Flavia Saraiva
I fully expect Simone and Mai to be one and two. Even in our Simone-fest, I do think Mai has a serious chance to beat her, but I'm sticking with Simone having the edge. I don't really know what I expect outside them. My ultimate delusional fever dream is for Axelle Klinckaert to come in and win.
