Worlds Predictions!!

Team Finalists
USA
Russia
China
Japan
Brazil
France
Great Britain
Belgium
I'm calling for Belgium here. Look how well they did at Euros with two and a half gymnasts. They're an expected outsider, but I think they call pull it off. Canada's probably the more expected contender, though.

Team Podium
1. USA
2. Russia
3. Japan
China has serious vault and floor issues. Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked to see an outsider pull off a silver, but Russia has high D vaults and better hitting records with Gelya suddenly becoming strong, Aliya back, and their awesome Euros performance, making them look awesome. If the US didn't have Simone, I think Russia could make a serious push for gold.


All Around Podium
1. Simone Biles
2. Mai Murakami
3. Morgan Hurd
I'm giving Morgi the edge for making the AA final after seeing Riley's vault struggles in podium training. We could very well have a one-American podium this year, but I do think they still come in as favorites for two. Mai is continuing her quest of awesome from last year, and if she can make it through clean this year, I think she should be on the podium. I'd also not be at all shocked to see Aliya suddenly a four-eventer instead of the announced two-eventer and sweep in for a medal. Honestly, at this point it might be more surprising if that didn't happen. For other potential medalists, obviously Melanie DJDS, Gelya, and Ellie Black would all be foreseeable.


Vault Finalists
Simone Biles
Shallon Olsen
Yeo Seo-jeong
Pyon Rye Yong
Oksana Chusovitina
Angelina Melnikova
Lilia Akhaimova
Liu Jinru

Vault Podium
1. Simone Biles
2. Yeo Seo-jeong
3. Shallon Olsen
I would rather see either of the other Asian Games medalists than Shallon on the podium, but I think she probably has the edge. But I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them either. I'm expecting the medalists to come from that group of five.


Bars Finalists
Nina Derwael
Riley McCusker
Simone Biles
Becky Downie
Liu Tinting
Luo Huan
Aliya Mustafina
Angelina Melnikova
I'm not willing to predict Becky and Jonna both making the final. That's too big a hope-setter. Becky has the better record of making finals.

Bars Podium
1. Nina Derwael
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Riley McCusker
And I'm also definitely not predicting Becky medaling. We all know too well for that. Nina has her killer routine which she has been slaying with this year. Aliya's gonna Aliya, so there's that. Riley has a good routine and has had pretty much no issues with it this year.


Beam
As standard practice whenever a certain beam specialist competes, I'll be doing a fantasy podium of everyone I expect not to be competitive.
1. Ilaria Kaeslin
2. Vasiliki Milliousi
3. Brooklyn Moors


Floor Finalists
Simone Biles
Mai Murakami
Melanie De Jesus Dos Santos
Grace McCallum
Flavia Saraiva
Angelina Melnikova
Denisa Golgota
Marcia Videaux
Outside the first few, I'm not seeing a super clear group of finalists. I think there will be two Americans, and right now I'm feeling Grace, but either Riley or Morgi could make it too.

Floor Podium
1. Simone Biles
2. Mai Murakami
3. Flavia Saraiva
I fully expect Simone and Mai to be one and two. Even in our Simone-fest, I do think Mai has a serious chance to beat her, but I'm sticking with Simone having the edge. I don't really know what I expect outside them. My ultimate delusional fever dream is for Axelle Klinckaert to come in and win.

I don't care, Jordan wins

Yes, I realize I am completely skipping Euros (which was awesome and I had lots of feelings about) and going to nationals, but I figured I could be at least kind of timely with a nationals post so I might as well just do that first.


The Good

• The meaningful night 2 leos. Jordan with her theme leo (Baby Celine!!) and Simone's teal "hey USAG you may want to recognize that survivors of the abuse you allowed are still people" leo.
• Speaking of Jordan's Wonder Woman leo, she kept her commitment to the superhero theme in her arms-crossed Wakanda salute/doesn't WW do that too? (I don't watch superhero movies guys) beam choreo
• NBC honored Elena Shushunova
• The solidest nationals in as long as anyone is patient enough to check
• This was just a really strong competition. With so many fewer juniors it seemed like maybe there wouldn't be as awesome a group, but HOO BOY this was a GROUP and I stan all of them. They will all make at least one Worlds team and I don't even care that I'm not connected to reality.
• All the good decisions to rest and protect gymnasts' health (COUGH)
• MORGI WAS STEADY
• LEVI JUNG-RUIVIVAR WAS PRESENT
• I love watching Trin and Marz rewrite the rules about elite and NCAA competition. And the fact that it's Marz doing it is also so great given her role in the national team as the one who speaks up for the athletes.
• Kara and Trin both got included on the national team, honoring actual FIG scoring and not just USAG vault values
• GAGE girls. These girls are on fire.
• Sloane Blakely and Konnor McClain finished in the top five!! These kids are new favorites of mine! (Oh who am I kidding, ALL of these juniors are new favorites of mine. But these two making the top five particularly was great to see.)
• Leanne the national champion
• DANG Sunisa
• I'm not scared watching Riley anymore. (Mostly.)
• I don't care that it failed this time, the attempt at a second Wolfkino was glorious

The Bad

• The fact that the Wolfkino attempt failed. And that Jordan went on to fall on her wolf turn on floor.
• WHY IS RAGAN'S ANKLE STILL SO BUSTED? Why didn't they get surgery? I mean, didn't she have a good amount of time for surgery and recovery? ISN'T HER PHYSICAL HEALTH FOR THE REST OF HER LIFE MORE IMPORTANT?
• Jordan Bowers and Sydney Barros having to bow out of day 2. But still well done making health-conscious decisions.

The Ugly

• That MG Elite corset leo. Or as Spencer put it, the "baby prostitute leos."
• Speaking of MG Elite, Riley's horror dismount. Can we please have her do a double full or front full and swallow the difficulty loss instead of this hellish dismount combo?

Overall, I really enjoyed this competition. So many people did really well and I loved a lot of the gymnastics we saw. Like I said above, I STAN ALL THE JUNIORS. I thought we saw really good form from most of the gymnasts and I also thought the artistry was looking pretty good too. I'm a much bigger fan of Ragan's new floor routine than her previous two. It feels more mature to me and cohesive. I'm also loving watching Morgan perform her new routine. I think the choreography isn't quite as strong as some others, but I really love what an engaged performer she's become. Riley's isn't my favorite, but I don't understand why a lot of people hate it so much. It's fine, in my eyes. I also really enjoyed both the NCAA gymnasts' routines. They were fun and full of verve. The GAGE girls didn't have the most intricate and interesting choreography, but they are so pristine. And GAGE takes me into the juniors and how many of them are so beautiful. I'm really excited about the future of US floor routines. I also think the beam composition was a step up this year. They seemed to move smoothly to me and felt more like a whole than I was used to.

It also seemed to me like this was a more positive atmosphere at this Nationals. The girls were in good form and seemed like they weren't under as much pressure. I hope that's a genuine reflection of the nature of this competition and atmosphere. Let's make a good environment for our athletes.

Also, this is way too late as well, but with me being glad USAG honored Elena Shushunova, I want to highlight one of my favorite floor routines of all time. RIP, Elena.

So something happened at Classics

Classics was last weekend and it was a meet! I am so excited for American gymnastics this year. And the years to come, because the juniors are fabulous!


I WAS NOT PREPARED

So we went straight into the senior competition with the first two competitors on floor being Jade and Simone EACH DEBUTING HER MOORS! I watched podium training, but somehow them both opening on floor at the beginning of the start list completely flew over my head. I was literally shaking.

And then of course, there's Simone's whole debut. I was keeping my expectations "low" by going in with the mindset that she would probably have at least one fall and score around 56. And then she went and had one fall and scored over 58. Well, dang! She definitely got some Simone's Return glitter scoring, but the queen has most definitely returned!


And to complete the trinity...
So Morgi turned up with a Moors too.

I agree with those who say the Moors really isn't worth it compared to the Silivas, but I still just need the Moors and a Moors and a Moors floor lineup at Worlds. I also love this routine and her goal that people would never be bored when watching her. We also need to talk about that beam routine.

There was the fall and the blooey side jump, but otherwise this was the greatest beam routine in history. I just need her to do this exact routine minus fall at Nationals and I'll be so happy.


I wasn't afraid of Riley's gymnastics!

Dang, if this is this same Riley I saw last year! Her standard gorgeous gymnastics but her ligaments also never seemed in danger! (Okay, she had an ankle-cruncher DLO, but still an overall safe day.) AND that was when she was doing a DTY!


Texas Dreams was Texas Dreams
As usual, Texas Dreams did weird Texas Dreams things at Classics with a random collection of routines done. Ragan's ankle did weird things. So apparently she just decided... not to have the surgery her doctor said she needed. Great. She had the best timing for a recovery and just didn't do it? But anyway, she looked pretty good. I don't think her bars were quite at last year's "What Ragan Smith bars are these?" level, but she looked in decent Classics form. Her beam also looked in decent Classics form. She had a wobble and some split things, but it looks like good goings.

Emma Malabuyo had some struggles on beam, so I'm hoping to see her back in normal Emma Malabuyo form at Nationals. While there were some struggles, there were also some glimmers of greatness. And of course Deanne Soza was also there and so a gift to humanity. Unfortunately, she has not qualified to Nationals, so we must all mourn. (Wait, now she is going?) But we still have that glorious floor routine I love.

GAGE DID A THING
Oh man, this Classics was basically the GAGE show. Unfortunately, Kara Eaker fell on a switch leap, but she still showed off her gorgeous and fluid gymnastics. There's a reason she still got a 7.450 E score with a fall in the current code-scape. (Also, apparently the beam was crooked?!?)

The juniors, though, they DESTROYED this competition. Of course, we got to have our ever-perfect Leanne Wong as the champion.

THESE JUNIORS GUYS!! There are so many talented kids. Leanne had a beautiful day to take the title and she will be such an asset next year. Also, speaking of GAGE girls coming for the elite scene next year, Aleah was also beautiful.

She should give a clinic on that double Arabian to stag.


The Blakelys
Sloane first caught my eye in 2016 with her beam skills, and she's been getting noticed again this year for her awesome performance there.

She's doing the fluid movement demanded by this code beautifully. I'm also a huge fan of the FHS+front tuck series!

Skye also caught my eye this year with her super fun and well-performed floor routine.

Sunisa did a Gabby Perea
In an homage to Gabby Perea winning the junior bars title last year without a bars dismount, Sunisa Lee decided to do the same this year on beam.

I LOVE CLASSICS!


Jordan Bowers did a pirouette

THAT IS A GIANT 1.5!!! That was all I needed from her competition at Classics.


Levi Jung-Ruivivar

Well, for some reason the floor from the US Classic won't embed, so get her American Classic routine here. She was there. She did gymnastics. We were blessed.


The Disney Music
Trista Goodman used Beauty and the Beast music, which was great and I need more Gaston floor music because I just find it funny for some reason.

And then Brenna Neult has Bear Necessities, and her choreography isn't really anything special (except that great floor-pounding part!), but I just love her effervescent presence.

Zoe Gravier's music

I'm so bugged by this music guys. I LOVE acid routines. They're kind of my favorite thing. This choreography is far too plain for this acid routine music. I keep watching it trying to make it an acid routine, and it never becomes one! I do like some of that stuff before the third pass and at the end, though.

"You need a degree in advanced calculus to understand the new COP!!11!1!!"

The whole "Two numbers? HOW WILL WE EVER BE ABLE TO UNDERSTAND!!!!" thing has always been annoying to me, and I decided to do a rant about this after two things lit a fire under me:
1. The fact that USAG apparently felt the need to do a giant "It's not out of a 10 anymore because you're all stupid sheep" PSA at American Classic
2. This 2006 Worlds AA recap by Spencer which involves a fair amount of ranting on this same topic, so I decided to do it too

Seriously, this has to be one of the most understandable scoring systems out there! Hear me out on this: It's a number
And a number
AND YOU ADD THEM!!
It's just addition! The numbers aren't any higher than 10!
There's an ACTUAL STANDARD unlike in freestyle skiing or whatever the heck that sport is the just pulls arbitrary numbers out of its butt.
There's no multiplying by a factor of 3.5 or whatever the heck it is diving uses. Or some changing factor depending on what kind of program you're watching like in figure skating.
Seriously. All you have to do is comprehend two numbers (which won't be higher than 10!!!... or, you know, 8.5, let's be real) and then the final score they add up to (which will be less than 20!!) We learned how to do this in... what... first grade? Maaaybe second with all the decimals?

"But you can't expect the casual fans to remember an over-decade-old scoring change!"
Figure skating does. When's the last time you turned on an NBC broadcast of a figure skating competition which opened with 10 minutes of "But they did away with the SIIIIIIIIX!! (side note- what a random number was that to pick for your max score? why not 5?) How will anyone ever understand again?!?!!1?" And while we do have the ubiquitous quadriannual "What is this 80-some/100-some nonsense?" articles, THE BROADCAST DOESN'T TREAT THE AUDIENCE LIKE IGNORANT PIGS. It expects them to remember things that get presented to them over and over again OVER A DECADE, or at least be able to pick up on the basics of this scoring system (there are DOO DUMBERS!) when they see numbers that... are definitely higher than 6. And they see more than one of them.

The figure skating broadcasts respect the sport and its audience. So what do they do that gymnastics broadcasts don't do?

• They meet the scoring system on its own terms. Skating commentators talk about what is important in the rules of the current system. They describe the skater's performance entirely using the vocabulary of the current system and how it affects the score the skater will receive. Compare to gymnastics: How frequently do we hear commentators using 10-system vocabulary?
• They address the viewer on the scoring system's terms. Going off the idea of the last one. The commentators explain the score's mechanics in terms of GOEs and components. Even the stoplight box system is based on how this system evaluates the technical aspects of the program. Compare to gymnastics: NBC's entire presentation of the score is pretty much a perfect illustration of this. "Start value" is a term that applies solely to the 10 system, and the way they present it actually makes way less sense than the separate D score. Also notice how the stoplight scoring applies only to the E score, aka the 10 score in the current system, instead of the overall score which will determine placing. All of this prevents the viewers from absorbing the components of the current scoring system.
• And, really at the basis of it, they don't let nostalgia make them refuse to accept change. The entire way the broadcast interacts with the technical aspects of the sport, and therefore allow the viewer to do so, is tailored for how the sport works. Gymnastics presents the open-ended code as a hindrance, limiting the viewer's ability to accept its rules and absorb them.

The open-ended code isn't prohibitively difficult to understand. As complex systems go, it's even simple enough that lay fans can get a far better grip of the particulars of it than in most others. If the commentators stop putting on a drama that the viewers can't possibly grasp the scoring then they will.

Feats of Courage

After a super busy semester, I'm finally getting around to my planned post on the statements from the sentencing hearing (we all know which one, I don't have to use the name). We've all seen Aly Raisman's, Jordyn Wieber's, Lindsay Lemke's, Kyle Stephens's, and Rachael Denhollander's statements. And they were statements we should all know. But in this post I wanted to take the opportunity to reflect on some of the less recognized statements that particularly impacted me in one way or another. This isn't to say that these are more important than the others in any way; all of the victims' voices are important. These are just some that touched me.

Jennifer Rood Bedford

I think her statement was just a clear communication of how far his violation went. Statements like hers also drive home just how many victims there are that aren't tolled. And most of all, the forgiveness and grace she shows is astounding.

Tiffany Thomas Lopez
The thing that really stood out to me about this statement was when she said she was relieved when she saw the contemporary pictures of him because she assumed it meant he didn't abuse anyone else. It just highlights the contrast between the victims' innocence and strength and his depravity.

Madeleine Jones
"You were born in the image and likeness of God and you chose to sexually assault little girls. To call you a monster isn't even the right word; you're a human being, and you chose to do this, you chose your actions, and you chose to sexually assault little girls."

Larissa Boyce
The description of how she blamed herself really struck me. This one also just highlights the depths to which MSU sank in protecting him.

Bailey Lorencen
That back injury. Put Geddert behind bars.

The Minors

The minors are the women who will particularly haunt me. Listening to them speak really put a fine point on the fact that he did this to children. Speaking at the hearing was a woman's battle, and I will forever be in awe of their bravery. Chelsea Zerfas's statement is the one that sticks with me the most: to see this young girl in so much pain because of what she had to go though, and yet her concern for what he did to her teammates. Hers just encapsulated this tragedy to me.

Let Justice Roll Down like a River

One hundred and seventy-five years.

Judge Rosemarie Aquilina "just signed inmate 21504-040's death warrant."

He isn't going to get the punishment he deserves because our justice system doesn't allow the punishment he deserves. But he is getting a fitting punishment for what our law supports.

Rachael Denhollander is a hero. Judge Rosemarie Aquilina is a hero. Every single woman who spoke out at this trial, whether publicly or anonymously, is a hero. Everyone who spoke in their support is a hero. Everyone working to put him behind bars is a hero.

The change is only beginning, because these women won't let it be otherwise.



I'm going to say more, but it's probably going to be a while. I want to do this one right. I just wanted to make a quick statement here in the immediate aftermath.

Floor Music I Want to See: USA

Morgan Hurd- "Game of Thrones" or "Avovra" (Anna Bessonova hoop 2008/Tabea Alt 2017)
I've not been the biggest fan of Morgi's routines since 2014, though I definitely preferred this year's routine to her previous ones. I would prefer to see a return to the older thematic feel. "Game of Thrones" would be a clearer return to the feel of her 2014 routine-- am I the only one who gets a medieval vibe from it? I think it brings the quieter drama which she could really build from. And I just love the medieval-ish style for her. "Avovra" is more in line with the heavy drama of her 2017 routine, but I think it's more in line with what I want to see from Morgan. It's not so string-heavy as her recent musics, which I think is what's tripping me up with her recent routines. It's got a darker style, which is what I want to see for her. Again, the music has a less packed sound, and I really think Morgan does a good job elevating that kind of sound and brings almost a mystical edge to her routines.

Emma Malabuyo- "Hedwig's Theme"
Emma is just such a charming performer. She has a lightness to how she performs on floor and there's always a humor and joy to her routines. I think "Hedwig's Theme" would be a perfect fit for that style she brings. It's light and frothy but also mysterious, and I think she would bring a really, well, enchanting performance to the music. It would be yet another delightful routine from Emma. Of course, I would also down with Morgan Hurd using this, partly because it has the some of the same mystical sound, but mostly because MORGAN WITH HARRY POTTER MUSIC!

Maile O'Keefe- "Renegade" by Kevin "K.O." Olusola (Macy Toronjo 2017)
Now with Maile, we're getting into the heavier drama. I feel like with Maile, she's always had aesthetic enough routines, but never really broke out of her shell as a performer. I think this music is sort of an in-between with her old 2014 music and this year's music. I think her style is suited to the darker, heavier drama, and she and the music could elevate each other.

Ragan Smith- "Promenade (Walking the Dog)" or "Seaside Rendezvous"
I think both of these pieces would be a good return to Ragan's 2014-2015 playful but mature style (why is it that her routines got more immature as she got older? is it because they had to do so to keep up their look at how cute and little she is schtick, or because they had to keep up the schtick?) "Walking the Dog" gets a little jazzy, which I think Ragan could play with really well. It's light and playful, and I think she could put in a lot of unique touches. "Seaside Rendezvous" would bring out some of the good in Ragan's 2017 choreographic style. It would be a real crowd-pleaser routine, and I think Ragan broken out of the "must be cutesy!!" box would do great things with this.

Riley McCusker- "Pirates" (Ellie Black 2012/2013)
I wasn't a huge fan of her 2017 routine, and definitely not as big a fan of her 2017 routine as her 2016 routine. However, I'm not opposed to moving in a bit more of that direction. I think this music would bring a bit of the 2017 style while maintaining the best of her 2016 choreography's style. I think Riley (and MG Elite in general) has some tendency toward moving to hit poses, and this music allows for that while elevating the music. It's also nicely light and bubbly, which I think would be really good for her.

Adeline Kenlin- "Once and for All" from Newsies
I got the desire for Adeline to use a showtune for floor after a random set of circumstances led me to realize that her 2017 floor goes really well to Dumbledore's part to the end of "Back to Hogwarts" from AVPM (it was the polished album version if you want to try at home). I picked this one because it has the driving beat from those sections of "Back to Hogwarts," which seemed to work for her, and it also embodies the pretty melodic elements of her 2016 routine and some fighting elements from her 2017 routine. I'd also be down for "At the End of the Day", for similar reasons with more similarities to her 2016 routine, and "Defying Gravity", which doesn't have the elements from her old routines but I still think she could do something with.