Right now, there are basically eight gymnasts in contention for the six gymnasts and one alternate on the US World Championship team. Those eight are Simone Biles, Kyla Ross, Maggie Nichols, Alyssa Baumann, Mykayla Skinner, Maddie Kocian, Ashton Locklear, and Brenna Dowell. People are writing Brenna off, but there's no reason she'd be named to the national team if she wasn't in Worlds contention. People are also being a bit sensationalist about Alyssa, but according to Landi, she'll be back for selection camp just fine. Simone and Kyla are locks barring their own health. Simone will contribute on vault, beam, and floor and be a backup on bars. Kyla would ideally only be used on bars and beam but would also be backup on the other events if we need her.
So, choosing the best combination of four of the other gymnasts means we have to consider how well their specialty events fit into the current slots. Maggie and Mykayla could both compliment Kyla's specialties well on vault and floor. Mykayla vaults a Cheng and Maggie had a gorgeous DTY day two of P&Gs. Mykayla could be backup on beam, and Maggie's a great all around team player. Alyssa's beam would be a great addition to the lineup and she did herself a big favor with her outings on floor at P&Gs. She could absolutely be used as the table-setter there. Maddie K and Ashton Locklear both share the same two-event specialty, bars and beam. Both have absolutely gorgeous bars sets to fill in the gaps on that event, so Pan Ams will be a critical performance for both of them. Brenna's said she will be coming back all around at selection camp, so if she actually does come back on all four events, she could be well in contention. Her vault especially could help the team outside of bars. I get the feeling Brenna isn't really alternate material right now, she's either completely on the team or completely off.
The Pan Ams team was clearly strategically selected as a trial for Worlds. Simone and Kyla don't need any more observation from Martha, so they are at home preparing to arrive at camp as strong as possible. Brenna has already had plenty enough international experience, and apparently she, Al Fong, and Martha agreed she didn't need the exposure and it would be better to stick to training and let her ankle heal as much as possible. All the other hopefuls are in Canada except for Alyssa, who was supposed to be. I think that if she shows herself well at camp, she should have no problem snagging a spot, but Pan Ams wasn't as critical for her anyway. It will be important for Mykayla and Maggie, and absolutely critical for Ashton and Maddie K. Martha will definitely want to see what the Pan Ams judges do with Mykayla before officially naming her to a Worlds team, and she'll want to be sure Maggie won't repeat her errors from Tokyo earlier this year. Also, Maggie needs to prove her events are worth taking. Pan Ams is most critical for Maddie K and Ashton, who will almost certainly be fighting for the same spot unless Maddie K shows she can do other events at least in qual, and even then I'd be surprised to see them on the same team. Bars will be the clutch event for these two. If Ashton can outscore Maddie K by as much as she did at Classics and night one of P&Gs on bars, she would look to be the obvious choice. However, beam will also be of note for Martha- she will likely want to have a team player who could go backup on beam if needed if she can have one. If both can put up decent beam sets, bars really should be the big deciding factor. And, of course, Martha wants to make sure neither will crumble under the international pressure.
Right now, I'd say four spots on the team are practically set. Simone and Kyla are going. Ashton or Maddie K will go as a bars specialist. Mykayla will compliment Kyla on vault and floor, though Maggie might be able to overtake her. This leaves two spots for Ashton or Maddie K, whoever doesn't make the first bars spot, Maggie, Alyssa, and Brenna. Alyssa will, I think, likely be on the team as our table-setter on beam and floor. Her routines will definitely be a good place to start on both events and beam especially is a place the US needs to target this year, so her prowess there will probably be her ticket to China. As our third-best all arounder, Maggie would seem to be the obvious choice, but she really is just better alternate material. Her abilities just aren't the best fit for the team's needs. However, if she needs to be named to the official team, it certainly wouldn't hurt the US team's chances any. She just serves the team better as an alternate. As I said earlier, Maddie K would have to show she could do other events in quals for her and Ashton to be on the same team. Vault in particular would be a good event to have a backup in case anything weird happens with Mykayla's Cheng. Even if she just has an FTY and a super watered down floor, those events would basically only be there as a backup in qual. If she shows that at camp, she could be a very good addition. In an ideal situation, Brenna would be my pick for the final team member, as her vault and bars complement Alyssa's beam and floor nicely and could both bring in very good scores. A third 6.3+ D score vault would be a huge asset and so would her jam-packed bars routine, though I think she maybe needs to just do the routine without trying to connect the Church to the Pak and maybe even straddle the Pak. Plus, she could get the piked double front named the Dowell!! (No, it is not named after Veronica Wagner). While her errors on night two could not have helped her, her determination and the way she fought through the routine could not have hurt her, either, so I hope she's given a fair shot. If Brenna isn't back and ready, both other options are good though and will still be gold-medal worthy barring implosion.
Right now, with the uncertainties of Brenna's competitive potential and Maddie K's all around status, I'd name Simone, Kyla, Mykayla, Ashton, Alyssa, and Maggie:
VT- (Alyssa), (Maggie/Kyla), Maggie/Kyla, Mykayla, Simone
UB- (Alyssa), (Simone), Maggie, Kyla, Ashton
BB- (Ashton), (Maggie), Alyssa, Simone, Kyla
FX- (Maggie), (Kyla), Alyssa, Mykayla, Simone
But, as we all know, it's not over 'til the fat lady sings.
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