Teams Qualifying at the Test Event
Romania
Brazil
Australia
Belgium
USA Team
Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, Maggie Nichols, Norah Flatley, Maddie Kocian
VT: (Flatley) Raisman, Nichols, Biles
UB: (Biles) Nichols, Flately, Kocian
BB: (Nichols) Raisman, Biles, Flatley
FX: (Flatley) Nichols, Raisman, Biles
Yeah, I know there are a ton of conspiracy theories about how the Attack Cup competitors are the ones up for second AA and so Raisman is off the team and yada yada yada, but unless another Amanar pops up from a top competitor (or another 6.0+ D score vault, the blogger mentions dutifully) or Mykayla Skinner suddenly becomes impossible to leave home, the Biles-Nichols-Raisman trifecta is definitely going. If the Amanar (and/or the Mykayla) situation does change though, it's a free-for-all and everyone have fun playing Martha because it's going to be one exciting ride. I've had a feeling that at least one new senior would make the team, and Norah's been training some awesome bars skills that could make her a UB-BB specialist that would fit the team perfectly. If the Amanar situation changes, I'm also calling Ragan Smith as a dangerous one- I could totally see her snatching up Aly's spot if the Amanar isn't her golden ticket.
China Team
Yao Jinnan, Shang Chunsong, Wang Yan, Fan Yilin, Liu Tingting
VT: (Shang Chunsong) Yao Jinnan, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan
UB: (Liu Tingting) Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Yao Jinnan
BB: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
FX: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
I definitely think this seems like the most balanced Chinese team in forever. Of course, this relies on Yao Jinnan being back in the AA, so if she's not things will shuffle. But even then, I don't think the 3-person lineups should be in too dire a state. Lots of gymnasts up on three events on this team, but still a good depth pool for them if someone falls apart either mentally or physically between now and Rio, I think.
GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Tyesha Mattis
VT: (Mattis) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
BB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
FX: (Mattis) Tinkler, Fragapane, E Downie
It feels so wrong not putting Catherine Lyons on this team seeing as she's basically been groomed for it the whole quad, but with Amy, Claudia, and Ellie, she'd only compete on bars and beam in the final, and Mattis is easily the better UB-BB specialist. If she just stays in one piece this year...
Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Angelina Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan, Daria Spiridonova
VT: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Afan, Bee Farm
UB: (Melnikova) Bee Farm, Mustafina, Spiridonova
BB: (Spiridonova) Afan, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan
With VRod's naming the 4-person core in 2015, she of course curse it not to happen. Since Vika is Vika and can never stay uninjured for more than one month at a time, I'm predicting she's off, and because VRod is VRod and whenever she opens her mouth nothing good can happen, I'm predicting Aliya's out for the AA. The weak link of this team is floor. Beam is a good and relatively nerve-free lineup for Russia (assuming Afan is doing beam next year), but of course it's Russia and it's beam, so that may end up being a weak spot as well. But in terms of how strong the events are, floor is the weaker.
Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Diana Bulimar, Laura Jurca, Catalina Ponor, Andreea Ciurusniuc
VT: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
UB: (Jurca) Ciurusniuc, Bulimar, Iordache
BB: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
FX: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
I want Izbasa back on the team, but news on her training has been spotty and she wan't put on the Olympic training squad, if I do recall correctly. It is a bit depressing to bring Ciurusniuc as a bars specialist, but Iridon is allergic to the apparatus and she's one of their best options. Bulimar could also go up for Jurca on either beam or floor. Ah, Romania is in a sad state.
Team
Finalists:
USA
Russia
China
Romania
Great Britain
Japan
Canada
Brazil
Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
The USA is the obvious pick and it will be a huge upset if they don't win, so moving on to the more exciting material. Romania looks to be ending their team-medal-at-every-Olympics streak. While I think they're looking not to be in the same extremely dangerous state this year, the rest of the Big Four and some top other nations look to be outstripping them fairly easily again for Rio. I think they'll be somewhere in the 4-6 range. The competition for the silver between China and Russia should be very exciting, with both having good depth years across the events, but I think China will maintain their silver streak due to some Russian shakiness on beam and floor. I also think GB has a good shot at the podium, though they have an uphill climb, and I think the other three might get closer to a medal than we're expecting.
All-Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Maggie Nichols
3. Larisa Iordache
I feel like I'm jinxing Simone not to complete her quad-long reign by this, but who else am I really to predict? Though I think Maggie could very well be on the chopping block for the team depending on who is suddenly wonderful this year, if she goes she is a very strong shot for the podium. Larisa is another obvious pick. Without Aliya or Vika, I don't really see much competition for these three, but if my doomsday predictions don't pan out, they could spice things up nicely.
Vault
Finalists:
Hong Un Jong
Simone Biles
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Ellie Downie
Afan
Marcia Vidaeux
Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Bee Farm
3. Simone Biles
I'm not holding my breath for the Cheng this year (but maybe?) Anyway, I'm thinking Hong Un Jong is going to pull ahead of Bee Farm this year. Not much change from last year.
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Daria Spiridonova
Aliya Mustafina
Maddie Kocian
Fan Yilin
Yao Jinnan
Becky Downie
Sophie Scheder
Simone Biles/Norah Flatley
Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Yao Jinnan
3. Daria Spiridonova
I feel like Yao Jinnan might be the more prudent gold-medal pick, but I want it to be Fan Yilin, so I went with her anyway. I'm expecting it to be China-China-Russia, regardless of the combination of gymnasts. Yeah, I have Simone potentially making it. she was two-pered last year, don't forget!
Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Norah Flatley
Larisa Iordache
Liu Tingting
Shang Chunsong
Aliya Mustafina
Ellie Black
Pauline Schaefer
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Norah Flatley
3. Aliya Mustafina
Again, I'm going with safe options for the podium. I'm expecting beam to be a bit more Big Four-heavy than in Glasgow. I'm again expecting Larisa to have some mishap keeping her from the podium. Simone comes in again with the obvious upper hand, but I think Norah has some potential for a challenge in her as well. I think Pauline Schaefer is going to just squeak in for the final. I was debating putting in Liu Tingting for the bronze, and I'd like to see it happen. And hopefully more gymnasts than not will have routines without major errors? I know, we haven't seen it in a while, but I think this group has it in them. I believe!
Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Afan
Claudia Fragapane
Flavia Saraiva
Larisa Iordache
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Flavia Saraiva
Yeah, I'm predicting Flava-flav for the final (and the podium, apparently!) She's apparently got a 6.3 routine in the works, and she's the kind of gymnast the judges love, so I see her making it in. As for on the podium, I was going to put Raisman there, but I just kind of felt like someone unexpected would medal on floor, and Flavia was the most unexpected of the gymnasts I predicted to final. So I put her there. I think this will be a pretty competitive final- aside from Simone, everyone is at a fairly equal playing field. I also think there are others at about the same level outside this group, so it should be fun to watch the fight to make it in. I'm really looking forward to this one!
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Sunday, January 10, 2016
ASU vs. Bowling Green vs. Nebraska
It was the first meet of the season for ASU, and even though they somehow only managed to outscore two of last year's meets (which I just don't understand- I think the problem is they had pretty much all non-disaster routines, but they were pretty much all in the 9.4-9.75 range), I left feeling very hopeful for the new season. THEY HAVE FRESHMAN!! THE FRESHMAN ARE LEGITIMATE CONTRIBUTORS!! So I was very happy about this meet. It also seemed just to be a very low-scoring meet in general- the highest score was 9.850.
Since it was a tri-meet, I wasn't able to have as much focus, so I won't always use the gymnast's name. Because I can't remember. And also, the announcer was potentially a gymnast behind when Nebraska was on bars. And potentially other events as well. And the scoreboard was also a bit behind.
ASU seems to be very into theme nights (I'm still scarred from last year's Who Let the Dogs Out beam music for 90s night), and this week was Disney night. Much better. And Alli Salas cemented her place as my favorite Gym Devil after naming Mulan as her favorite Disney movie.
Nebraska and Bowling Green both had decent fan sections, which was a bit of a surprise. There was definitely good support for all the teams there, and I won't be complaining the way I did when UCLA invaded last year.
Rotation 1 (ASU vault, Nebraska bars, Bowling Green beam)
Nebraska: Nebraska had more than one fall on a Jager, leading to two 8.900s, one of which was from Hollie Blanske. Bars was the farthest event from where I was sitting, so it was the one I had the hardest time focusing decently on. Read: my recaps on bars won't be great. Grace Williams and Jennie Laeng both did very nice routines to finish out the rotation. That second 8.900 I think ended up really holding Nebraska back for the rest of the meet and led to their only-194.040 result.
Bowling Green: BGSU had a pretty unsteady rotation- if I recall correctly, two gymnasts fell and a third had a very significant wobble. One gymnast (looking at the score sheet, it appears to be Victoria Heath) fell twice in her routine. They did manage to finish out the rotation well, though. Alyssa Nocella was on my Fantasy team last year, so I was interested in seeing her in person. She did a nice routine. And one gymnast had an awesome front 1.5 dismount, front dismounts being my favorite kind.
ASU: Hey guys, guess what- ASU had six vaulters! And only one vaulted a Yurchenko layout! Unfortunately, that vaulted ended up having to count seeing as one of the freshman (Corinne Belkoff) sort of crumpled on the landing. But, hey, she was a decent competitor on beam and floor, so I'm glad to have her anyway! I was super annoyed with my FantasyGym lineups in this rotation (FantasyGym side note: My team is basically Taylor Rice and Kait Kluz, Allie Salas and Taylor Allex for my own personal I-draft-ASU reasons, India McPeak for my own personal India-McPeak reasons, a few specialists, five gymnasts I didn't draft who don't appear to compete, and FRESHMEN!!) because I put up Taylor Allex in my vault lineup for 1.5 reasons, and then she did just a plain old full and Allie Salas, who I didn't put in my vault lineup, outscored her.
Rotation 2 (ASU bars, Nebraska beam, Bowling Green floor)
Nebraska: Nebraska ended up having to count another fall on beam, this one being in the 9s though, so it wasn't quite as bad. Hollie Blanske was another of the falls on the event- this just was not her night. Grace Williams rocked her BHS+LOSO+LOSO, though, which I was super happy to see. So great to see more difficult series in NCAA! Nebraska had another three-skill flight series, which I believe was BHS+BHS+LOSO, which I support! Jennie Laeng was an end-of-lineup savior again on this rotation, bringing in another 9.825 score.
Bowling Green: Alright, I've been making a list of NCAA schools whose choreographers I want to work with USAG, and I'm adding Bowling Green to that list, especially for gymnasts who aren't natural movers. Alyssa Nocella's floor did a very nice job of putting together aesthetic choreography that was more in the percussive style. Which would be very good for some of USAG's more challenging prospects. Laura Mitchell also had a very enjoyable routine, though unfortunately she ended up falling. Creagh, their final gymnast, also ended up falling, which just sort of kept up the no-one-is-staying-on theme. Also, every floor opened with this interesting screeching noise before the beep for the music, which was interesting.
ASU: So, at the end of the second rotation, ASU ended up a)the only team that didn't have to count a fall b)IN THE LEAD! The bars routines seemed to be of the let's-just-get-a-10-start-value ilk. Carissa Kraus was mid-lineup, which I found surprising seeing as she, Gades, and Micelli WERE the bars lineup last year. Instead, two freshman were the back end of the lineup. Was Rene trying to ASU-style Bridgey them? Anyway, it was an overall "Eh, there's nothing really bad going on here, but there's nothing really good going on here, either" lineup.
Rotation 3 (Bowling Green vault, ASU beam, Nebraska floor)
Bowling Green: All right, so vault ended up being sacrificed to the two 90 second events this rotation. Overall, it seemed to me that they didn't do Yurchenko vaults. I'm pretty sure I caught a tuck front half from one of the mid-lineup gymnasts, which is always good to me over a Yurchenko. their last vault, though, was a Yurchenko full, which ended up tying for their top score of the rotation.
Nebraska: Nebraska definitely brought the most E difficulty passes of the competition. There was at least one DLO and at least one double Arabian. One gymnasts- Catelyn Orel, according to the score sheet- landed one of her tumbles OOB (I believe it was a Rudi? or some other front twisting element). Blanske pulled it together on floor to put up a successful routine, though it still wasn't up to her usual standard. Ashley Lambert had the anchor routine and brought some good difficulty, getting a good score for Nebraska's rotation. Once again, Jennie Laeng was a bit of savior for the rotation (are we seeing a theme here?), and she (I'm pretty sure it was her) had a really great passage of choreography where she had a twisting jump to the floor and then some fun mini-acrobatics.
ASU: Hey guys, guess what: ONLY ONE ASU GYMNAST FELL OFF OF BEAM! That would be Beka Conrad, interestingly enough on her only event in a bit of a turn around from last year. However, Taylor Allex also had a big wobble, so they still ended up having to count a low-9s score. But still, progress! Also exciting: all the freshmen stayed on! So there's some hope for the future. One of the freshman (I don't remember who- I'll figure it out by the end of the season) had a LOSO+full dismount, which I always like seeing. Also competed by a freshman (I believe it was the same one- Udowitch?) was a one-armed front handspring+BHS. So the freshmen have also brought some cool new skills! On the subject of maybe-Udowitch, there is apparently quite a bit of confusion as to the spelling of her name. On the card, it was Udowitch, on the scoreboard it was Udodowitch, and on the score sheet it's Udodwitch. Also, we left a seat on the end of our row empty, and at the end of this rotation Sparky just came and plopped down in it, which took us a bit by surprise.
Rotation 4 (Nebraska vault, Bowling Green bars, ASU floor)
Nebraska: Hollie Blanske continued her streak from the previous event of "not falling anymore, but still not up to my usual standard" with a 9.700 on vault. Ashley Lambert, however, came in with a disappointing vault that only scored in the 9.5s. Otherwise, the scores were mostly in the 9.7 range. Jennie Laeng completed her meet of "I'm the savior of Nebraska gymnastics" by vaulting for a 9.825, the highest score on vault of the night (like I said at the beginning- this was a low-scoring meet). Overall, it just wasn't Nebraska-level vaulting.
Bowing Green: This was another ASU-style bars rotation where it all seemed to be of the let's-just-get-a-10-start-value ilk. The scores were all in the 9.4s-9.7s range. However, Ellingboe, the last gymnast up, did a full-twisting DLO dismount, which was an exciting touch.
ASU: Unfortunately, this was the only rotation where ASU had to count a fall (Allex didn't fall, so I'll still be excited about this even though they had to count a 9.225 on beam!) Eileen Imbus led off with a fall on floor, and the Salas ended up falling as well. But still, ASU still somehow had to count the least number of falls! I do think this could be a good rotation for ASU, especially if Katelyn Lentz is developed and put at the end of the lineup. Taylor Allex was a great anchor on floor with the E difficulty for ASU and the power. Also, one of the freshmen used "Lights" by Ellie Goulding as floor music, which I approve of.
Awesome skills I think Bowling Green competed but might have been Nebraska:
On floor, one gymnast did a Biles-twisting-cartwheel-butt-bounce, which was exciting
A gainer tuck full dismount from beam
A Steingruber dismount from beam (that may have been Laura Mitchell?)
Since it was a tri-meet, I wasn't able to have as much focus, so I won't always use the gymnast's name. Because I can't remember. And also, the announcer was potentially a gymnast behind when Nebraska was on bars. And potentially other events as well. And the scoreboard was also a bit behind.
ASU seems to be very into theme nights (I'm still scarred from last year's Who Let the Dogs Out beam music for 90s night), and this week was Disney night. Much better. And Alli Salas cemented her place as my favorite Gym Devil after naming Mulan as her favorite Disney movie.
Nebraska and Bowling Green both had decent fan sections, which was a bit of a surprise. There was definitely good support for all the teams there, and I won't be complaining the way I did when UCLA invaded last year.
Rotation 1 (ASU vault, Nebraska bars, Bowling Green beam)
Nebraska: Nebraska had more than one fall on a Jager, leading to two 8.900s, one of which was from Hollie Blanske. Bars was the farthest event from where I was sitting, so it was the one I had the hardest time focusing decently on. Read: my recaps on bars won't be great. Grace Williams and Jennie Laeng both did very nice routines to finish out the rotation. That second 8.900 I think ended up really holding Nebraska back for the rest of the meet and led to their only-194.040 result.
Bowling Green: BGSU had a pretty unsteady rotation- if I recall correctly, two gymnasts fell and a third had a very significant wobble. One gymnast (looking at the score sheet, it appears to be Victoria Heath) fell twice in her routine. They did manage to finish out the rotation well, though. Alyssa Nocella was on my Fantasy team last year, so I was interested in seeing her in person. She did a nice routine. And one gymnast had an awesome front 1.5 dismount, front dismounts being my favorite kind.
ASU: Hey guys, guess what- ASU had six vaulters! And only one vaulted a Yurchenko layout! Unfortunately, that vaulted ended up having to count seeing as one of the freshman (Corinne Belkoff) sort of crumpled on the landing. But, hey, she was a decent competitor on beam and floor, so I'm glad to have her anyway! I was super annoyed with my FantasyGym lineups in this rotation (FantasyGym side note: My team is basically Taylor Rice and Kait Kluz, Allie Salas and Taylor Allex for my own personal I-draft-ASU reasons, India McPeak for my own personal India-McPeak reasons, a few specialists, five gymnasts I didn't draft who don't appear to compete, and FRESHMEN!!) because I put up Taylor Allex in my vault lineup for 1.5 reasons, and then she did just a plain old full and Allie Salas, who I didn't put in my vault lineup, outscored her.
Rotation 2 (ASU bars, Nebraska beam, Bowling Green floor)
Nebraska: Nebraska ended up having to count another fall on beam, this one being in the 9s though, so it wasn't quite as bad. Hollie Blanske was another of the falls on the event- this just was not her night. Grace Williams rocked her BHS+LOSO+LOSO, though, which I was super happy to see. So great to see more difficult series in NCAA! Nebraska had another three-skill flight series, which I believe was BHS+BHS+LOSO, which I support! Jennie Laeng was an end-of-lineup savior again on this rotation, bringing in another 9.825 score.
Bowling Green: Alright, I've been making a list of NCAA schools whose choreographers I want to work with USAG, and I'm adding Bowling Green to that list, especially for gymnasts who aren't natural movers. Alyssa Nocella's floor did a very nice job of putting together aesthetic choreography that was more in the percussive style. Which would be very good for some of USAG's more challenging prospects. Laura Mitchell also had a very enjoyable routine, though unfortunately she ended up falling. Creagh, their final gymnast, also ended up falling, which just sort of kept up the no-one-is-staying-on theme. Also, every floor opened with this interesting screeching noise before the beep for the music, which was interesting.
ASU: So, at the end of the second rotation, ASU ended up a)the only team that didn't have to count a fall b)IN THE LEAD! The bars routines seemed to be of the let's-just-get-a-10-start-value ilk. Carissa Kraus was mid-lineup, which I found surprising seeing as she, Gades, and Micelli WERE the bars lineup last year. Instead, two freshman were the back end of the lineup. Was Rene trying to ASU-style Bridgey them? Anyway, it was an overall "Eh, there's nothing really bad going on here, but there's nothing really good going on here, either" lineup.
Rotation 3 (Bowling Green vault, ASU beam, Nebraska floor)
Bowling Green: All right, so vault ended up being sacrificed to the two 90 second events this rotation. Overall, it seemed to me that they didn't do Yurchenko vaults. I'm pretty sure I caught a tuck front half from one of the mid-lineup gymnasts, which is always good to me over a Yurchenko. their last vault, though, was a Yurchenko full, which ended up tying for their top score of the rotation.
Nebraska: Nebraska definitely brought the most E difficulty passes of the competition. There was at least one DLO and at least one double Arabian. One gymnasts- Catelyn Orel, according to the score sheet- landed one of her tumbles OOB (I believe it was a Rudi? or some other front twisting element). Blanske pulled it together on floor to put up a successful routine, though it still wasn't up to her usual standard. Ashley Lambert had the anchor routine and brought some good difficulty, getting a good score for Nebraska's rotation. Once again, Jennie Laeng was a bit of savior for the rotation (are we seeing a theme here?), and she (I'm pretty sure it was her) had a really great passage of choreography where she had a twisting jump to the floor and then some fun mini-acrobatics.
ASU: Hey guys, guess what: ONLY ONE ASU GYMNAST FELL OFF OF BEAM! That would be Beka Conrad, interestingly enough on her only event in a bit of a turn around from last year. However, Taylor Allex also had a big wobble, so they still ended up having to count a low-9s score. But still, progress! Also exciting: all the freshmen stayed on! So there's some hope for the future. One of the freshman (I don't remember who- I'll figure it out by the end of the season) had a LOSO+full dismount, which I always like seeing. Also competed by a freshman (I believe it was the same one- Udowitch?) was a one-armed front handspring+BHS. So the freshmen have also brought some cool new skills! On the subject of maybe-Udowitch, there is apparently quite a bit of confusion as to the spelling of her name. On the card, it was Udowitch, on the scoreboard it was Udodowitch, and on the score sheet it's Udodwitch. Also, we left a seat on the end of our row empty, and at the end of this rotation Sparky just came and plopped down in it, which took us a bit by surprise.
Rotation 4 (Nebraska vault, Bowling Green bars, ASU floor)
Nebraska: Hollie Blanske continued her streak from the previous event of "not falling anymore, but still not up to my usual standard" with a 9.700 on vault. Ashley Lambert, however, came in with a disappointing vault that only scored in the 9.5s. Otherwise, the scores were mostly in the 9.7 range. Jennie Laeng completed her meet of "I'm the savior of Nebraska gymnastics" by vaulting for a 9.825, the highest score on vault of the night (like I said at the beginning- this was a low-scoring meet). Overall, it just wasn't Nebraska-level vaulting.
Bowing Green: This was another ASU-style bars rotation where it all seemed to be of the let's-just-get-a-10-start-value ilk. The scores were all in the 9.4s-9.7s range. However, Ellingboe, the last gymnast up, did a full-twisting DLO dismount, which was an exciting touch.
ASU: Unfortunately, this was the only rotation where ASU had to count a fall (Allex didn't fall, so I'll still be excited about this even though they had to count a 9.225 on beam!) Eileen Imbus led off with a fall on floor, and the Salas ended up falling as well. But still, ASU still somehow had to count the least number of falls! I do think this could be a good rotation for ASU, especially if Katelyn Lentz is developed and put at the end of the lineup. Taylor Allex was a great anchor on floor with the E difficulty for ASU and the power. Also, one of the freshmen used "Lights" by Ellie Goulding as floor music, which I approve of.
Awesome skills I think Bowling Green competed but might have been Nebraska:
On floor, one gymnast did a Biles-twisting-cartwheel-butt-bounce, which was exciting
A gainer tuck full dismount from beam
A Steingruber dismount from beam (that may have been Laura Mitchell?)
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