Now that the Test Event has passed and the US have presented all their top gymnasts (who aren't injured), I'm going to do predictions again. Because it's the Olympic year, and why not do predictions a bunch of times?
USA Team
Simone Biles, Gabby Douglas, Aly Raisman, Brenna Dowell, Laurie Hernanadez
VT: (Hernandez) Douglas, Dowell, Biles
UB: (Biles) Douglas, Hernandez, Dowell
BB: (Douglas) Raisman, Hernandez, Biles
FX: (Douglas) Hernandez, Raisman, Biles
I was still holding out for Norah, but the Classics list has been released and she's still not on the roster, which is not good news. Yes, I included Dowell. Get used to predictions that seem to be a bit optimistic, because this will not be the last. I mean really, why not go for your I-mean-it-could-happen predictions in an ultimately inconsequential blog post? But seriously, if she can get the Amanar back and prove that the fall in the Pac Rims EF was just a fluke, she will be a tough asset to leave home. So, Brenna darling, do us a favor and get the Amanar back, okay? I'm sure it can't be all that hard (sarcasm, if I didn't make that obviously clear enough). This is one ridiculous floor team.
China Team
Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Mao Yi, Liu Tingting, Tan Jiaxin
VT: (Shang) Liu, Tan, Mao
UB: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Fan
BB: (Mao) Liu, Shang, Fan
FX: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Mao
I know China already named their team, but I really just think Tan Jiaxin makes a much smarter team member than Wang Yan. Ultimately, they have an awesome mix of ladies who are extremely well-suited to a six-person team, which makes things annoying here. China has, somewhat shockingly, come to a place where Wang Yan isn't necessary for either their vault or floor lineups. And Liu's higher beam consistency and AA potential give her higher stock than Wang Yan, in my opinion.
GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Rebecca Tunney
VT: (Tunney) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Fragapane) E Downie, Tunney, B Downie
BB: (Tunney) Fragapane, E Downie, B Downie
FX: (Tunney) Tinkler, E Downie, Fragapane
Whelp, Catherine Lyons is inheriting the can't-stay-healthy-for-more-than-a-week curse, and Tyesha, who I really wanted to go for UB and BB, has had it all along, so curtains for both of them. But guess who has surfaced again? Rebecca Tunney! So please let this not curse her to be an invalid, too.
Russia Team
Angelina Melnikova, Maria Kharenkova, Aliya Mustafina, Ksenia Afanasyeva, Maria Paseka
VT: (Kharenkova) Melnikova, Afan, Paseka
UB: (Tutkhalyan) Melnikova, Paseka, Mustafina
BB: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Afan
I'm holding to my prediction that Vika will not be back to compete this season and Aliya will be relegated to two events, thanks to the curse of VRod. Melka has been absolutely on fire so far, so hopefully she can take a spot and run with it. Kharenkova has shown herself to be a surprisingly good option so far, doing well on beam in all phases of the competition and putting up respectable floor scores in two (well, a 14.900 is certainly more than respectable, but also steering rather determinedly toward the ridiculous) at Russian Champs, and she did well at Osijek on beam also.
Brazil Team
Flavia Saraiva, Jade Barbosa, Lorraine Oliveira, Rebeca Andrade, Daniele Hypolito
VT: (Saraiva) Oliveira, Barbosa, Andrade
UB: (Barbosa) Oliveira, Saraiva, Andrade
BB: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
FX: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
Andrade is baaaaack!! This is a really well-balanced team, and they look poised to do amazing things!
Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Russia
GB
Brazil
Canada
Germany
Japan
Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Brazil
Yep. Brazil. I did it. I told you there were predictions in this that verge away from the strictly realistic. They completely rocked the house at the test event, so it seems home crowd support really does carry them. I mean, they got a higher score than China did in qualifications at Glasgow! I'm pulling for them, blindly, some might say. And I have the US and China 1-2 because of course.
All Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Gabby Douglas
3. Angelina Melnikova
Larisa is looking not to be at ideal condition to be earning an Olympic ticket, and I want her to get it so badly, but because NOTHING can go right for Romania at the moment, I'm not holding my breath. Cata is going. I'm working on accepting it. And if Larisa can get the spot, then good surprise for me. But anyway, all that to say: I'm predicting Vika, Aliya, and Larisa are out, leaving things a bit sparse at the top. But once again, Melka has been on fire, so she shall swoop in to claim the open spot!
Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Hong Un Jong
Maria Paseka
Ellie Downie
Giulia Steingruber
Dipa Karmaker
Marcia Videux
Alexa Moreno
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Maria Paseka
Biles has gotten the Cheng! Let the world rejoice! She shall finally reign vault! And Hong Un Jong must place higher than Maria Paseka- please!
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Fan Yilin
Shang Chunsong
Elisabeth Seitz
Sophie Scheder
Becky Downie
Brenna Dowell
Gabby Douglas
Podim:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Shang Chunsong
3. Elisabeth Seitz
Another pretty stacked deck. Bars has been ridiculous this quad. Fan unveiled the 7.0 D-score routine, and, oddly enough, she's the only world champion from last year who I predict will return to defend her title, so the chances are looking pretty promising for her to validate my desires and claim the Olympic title. Aliya needs to add something more to her basic routine to medal again, which I would be 100% behind. Shang NEEDS a medal from a high competition, and fortunately, she's looking to be toward the forefront of this pack. And for the final spot (assuming Aliya sticks with basic), I want it to go to Downie, but she's too inconsistent to be a strong pick.
Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Laurie Hernandez
Sanne Wevers
Pauline Schaefer
Liu Tingting
Flavia Saraiva
Shang Chunsong
Maria Kharenkova
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Laurie Hernandez
3. Flavia Saraiva
Fortunately, with some gymnasts becoming markedly more consistent this year, it looks like this year's beam final might be a significant improvement from last year's. Flava Flav (did I make this up myself? because I was pretty sure it was a common nickname when I started using it but I don't actually see it anywhere...) is an example of one of those who has blessedly improved her consistency. The Americans look good to be consistent as well. And then there's the predictions I refuse to make for reasons....
Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Giulia Steingruber
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Claudia Fragapane
Ellie Downie
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Ksenia Afanasyeva
I had Flavia making the final in January, but the mythical 6.3 routine appears to be nowhere in sight, so I must pass now. This podium pick feels obvious and boring to me, but there's nothing else I really see happening either, so... Can Claudia get a medal? Because I just really want that to happen.
Thursday, May 26, 2016
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
The end of an era
Referring, of course, to Romania's failure to qualify a team to the Rio Olympics. What seemed unthinkable descended into the realm of possible at Glasgow's qualification round and continuously declined to the point of seeming likely before the test event. But ultimately, not even in my worst-case scenarios did I see Romania placing behind Switzerland.
Obviously, that bars issue has been dogging Romania for... ever, but that doesn't explain how they went from consistently-in-the-top-4 to second-to-last-at-the-test-event in a year and a half. And what I blame that on, honestly, is the higher-ups begging Sandra and Catalina to come back. I definitely saw a long-term decline (didn't expect not qualifying to Rio, though) as a possibility when they announced their comebacks, but I was so excited that I might see Sandra, my second-favorite gymnast, back in competition again that I really couldn't find it in myself to care. And honestly, if Sandra had competed again (mini side-rant: she went and quit her comeback because she thought the other girls were too good and then she totally would have been one of the best on the team and I could have seen her again and maybe her last competitive routine wouldn't have included a fall UGH WHY DID SHE QUIT) I still wouldn't care. But I do think it's what led to their undoing.
Why, you might ask? I'll give you two reasons: Stefania Stanila and Andreea Munteanu. Both of whom were discouraged in their training because they felt they were being told "you're not good enough, we can't rely on you" when Catalina and Sandra were called back. And guess what happened, they were needed in the end. Stefania had purpose not only as a good AAer but also as one of about two Romanian gymnasts who more often than not could stay on the bars. And Munteanu's strengths might have been better fulfilled by Cata, but she would have been such an asset at the test event. So yes, I am going to blame the immediate failure to qualify to Rio on the "Save us!" move pulled by the Romanian heads.
But, on to the teams who did qualify, because I'm super excited! I really love this group of teams, and I really like the mix we're going to see in Rio. Brazil absolutely rocked the test event, and the expectation is that they will repeat their stardom at the Games. And they've got Rebeca Andrade back!!! Flavia is going to be the darling, and her beam is to die for (and she's been hitting consistently this season)! I really think they're going to rock house this summer.
Onward to Germany. Seitz and Scheder both competing on bars will be very nice, especially should the Schimm resurface. And I'd like to see Scheder repeat on the beam final front.
Belgium did it! With a little help from Julie Crocket!! I love her so much. Can she please be healthy for longer than two seconds this year? Nina Derwael and Axelle Klinckaert are going to be such exciting prospects for them, and I'd love to see them kick butt this summer.
And finally, France. Which means Marine Brevet once again- with the Shine on You Crazy Diamond routine? I must say, I just really enjoy their unique and different choreography. The French team is just such a beautiful one.
Obviously, that bars issue has been dogging Romania for... ever, but that doesn't explain how they went from consistently-in-the-top-4 to second-to-last-at-the-test-event in a year and a half. And what I blame that on, honestly, is the higher-ups begging Sandra and Catalina to come back. I definitely saw a long-term decline (didn't expect not qualifying to Rio, though) as a possibility when they announced their comebacks, but I was so excited that I might see Sandra, my second-favorite gymnast, back in competition again that I really couldn't find it in myself to care. And honestly, if Sandra had competed again (mini side-rant: she went and quit her comeback because she thought the other girls were too good and then she totally would have been one of the best on the team and I could have seen her again and maybe her last competitive routine wouldn't have included a fall UGH WHY DID SHE QUIT) I still wouldn't care. But I do think it's what led to their undoing.
Why, you might ask? I'll give you two reasons: Stefania Stanila and Andreea Munteanu. Both of whom were discouraged in their training because they felt they were being told "you're not good enough, we can't rely on you" when Catalina and Sandra were called back. And guess what happened, they were needed in the end. Stefania had purpose not only as a good AAer but also as one of about two Romanian gymnasts who more often than not could stay on the bars. And Munteanu's strengths might have been better fulfilled by Cata, but she would have been such an asset at the test event. So yes, I am going to blame the immediate failure to qualify to Rio on the "Save us!" move pulled by the Romanian heads.
But, on to the teams who did qualify, because I'm super excited! I really love this group of teams, and I really like the mix we're going to see in Rio. Brazil absolutely rocked the test event, and the expectation is that they will repeat their stardom at the Games. And they've got Rebeca Andrade back!!! Flavia is going to be the darling, and her beam is to die for (and she's been hitting consistently this season)! I really think they're going to rock house this summer.
Onward to Germany. Seitz and Scheder both competing on bars will be very nice, especially should the Schimm resurface. And I'd like to see Scheder repeat on the beam final front.
Belgium did it! With a little help from Julie Crocket!! I love her so much. Can she please be healthy for longer than two seconds this year? Nina Derwael and Axelle Klinckaert are going to be such exciting prospects for them, and I'd love to see them kick butt this summer.
And finally, France. Which means Marine Brevet once again- with the Shine on You Crazy Diamond routine? I must say, I just really enjoy their unique and different choreography. The French team is just such a beautiful one.
Saturday, March 12, 2016
2017-2020 COP draft thoughts
Glory Hallelujah
Handspring fwd on-tucked double salto off: If the 2nd salto is not completed because the gymnast lands on feet and bottom simultaneously, then the vault will be recognized as Handspring fwd on-Tucked salto fwd off (VT): So, FIG finally started putting regulations on splatty Prods. Only took them an extra quad. I hope it really does make it harder for splatted Prods to count and we don't have a bunch of inquiries where they recheck and go, "Oh, on the slo-mo replay your feet did hit the ground a nanosecond before your bum, guess you get the full difficulty value!"
FIG is seriously trying to encourage more varied and exciting UB routines. Yay! Hopefully that will pan out.
Arabian UB mounts have been upgraded to F and G, because duh. Still, no one's going to do them. But the principle of the thing.
The layout Jaeger has been upgraded to an F! Along with this, the piked Jaeger was upgraded to an E, but honestly I would have preferred to see the layout upgraded, the pike still at a D, and the straddle down to a C because that means we are still in the clutches of the straddle Jaeger onslaught.
The triple flair BB mount is a D! Still, no one is going to do it... but more incentive!
The sheep jump is now a C! I'm excited because a)I'm the one person who doesn't like sheep jumps, b)hopefully this will greatly decrease sheep jump combos, and c)Yang Bos? Pretty please?
Another skill that I love that still won't be competed got upgraded- the Li Li back spin is D!
Acro bwd and fwd within an acro line (FX): NO MORE RANDOM AERIALS FULFILLING CR!!!! This is probably the top requirement I wanted to happen, and it did!! (Still want a combo acro line requirement, too.)
The corner rule was edited: You can stand on two feet more than once! I think you still can't stand in the corner for more than 2 seconds, and if so, we have finally hit the happy medium of the corner rule! No more stork stand!
Exercise ends with acro element (no choreography after last acro) -.1 (FX): And this was an artistry deduction I've been wanting forever! Grishy's awesome, but that ending of her 2012 routine...
The double laid out Arabian is an H! FIG got their heads on straight!
Within the 8 counting elements there must be a minimum of: 3 Dance, 3 Acro (BB, FX): Well, looky here, FIG is actually responding to an issue arising in one quad in THE NEXT CODE? Who'd'a thunk? And I can settle back and enjoy the Dutch floor rotation this year without thinking, "Is this going to become a long-term trend?"
Insufficient Complexity of creativity in the movements (A complex and creative movement is one that requires training time, coordination and previous preparation) (BB, FX): New artistry deduction. So, FIG is finally requiring beam choreography other than arm-waving after years of whining about there not being enough artistry? But seriously, I hope this is enforced. I hope we see some more exciting choreo to fulfill this (bring back the leg choreo, Afan!)
Not-Glory Hallelujah
C+C or more (dance) (BB): No more C+C mixed connections. Admittedly, this will bring an end to the requisite switch+back tuck connection, which I don't mind, but there were some other cool potential connections from that bonus.
No piked side somi (BB)? Tucked side somis are some of the ugliest things on this planet, but piked ones are the Cinderellas to their tucked ugly step sisters! Please tell me I just missed it.
The missing turn deduction on floor is gone? That just doesn't make sense to me.
The insufficient use of entire floor area deduction is gone? Hopefully that won't really affect anything, and I think that's pretty likely, but still, a safeguard, you know?
The butterfly was downgraded on floor!! Two gymnasts have done it this quad, Kim Janas and Claudia Fragapane, so it's not dead, right? (Side note: oh how I miss Kim Janas). Are two gymnasts becoming too big a trend for FIG? And it was my favorite leap.
In other news of my favorite dance skills (which are never competed) being deincentivized, the double illusion turn is now gone from the table of elements. And I was hoping they'd upgrade it to a D next quad.
Other Thoughts
Support (repulsion phase) with one hand -2.00 (VT): The Mykayla Skinner deduction? The COP previously had "Touch with one hand -2.00"- I'm guessing the difference between "support" and "touch" would be she could get away with her finger-swipe under the 2013-2016 COP and not now?
I like having a general "dynamics" deduction on vault
Only 3 different elements in chronological order from the same root skill (except for Kips, Giants, and casts to HSTD) will be counted for DV, CR, and CV (UB): I'm interested to see just how much impact this will make in construction of routines. I think this may be FIG's way of trying to encourage one-arm pirouettes without encouraging pirouette-fest routines, but what do I know. Looking at Glasgow's UB final, Spiridoz, Scheder, and Harrold all would be in excess of the 3-skill limit (Spiridoz and Scheder with inbars, Harrold toe-ons). For Spiridoz and Scheder, they could just switch one or however many to a toe-on, but then they'd lose difficulty (except for Scheder's inbar shoot). So, it shall be interesting to see what happens.
If kip performed after Shaposhnikova type elements with/without 1/1 turn- apply deduction for empty swing (UB): So, this would seem to be FIG's way of warding off Shaposh-fests next quad. And this should also encourage Tkatchevs, Geingers, pirouettes, etc. connected out of Shaposh variations.
The layout Geinger appears to be an E now, though, hey FIG, you still have it under D as well. Switch that before the final draft!
So the C/D+D (or more, without rebounding) CV on beam is gone. Absolutely no CV for non-rebounding connections now.
Mount without DV (BB): So... just Mount not from the table of elements from the last COP?
Onodi Tic Toc (BB): Wait- this is a thing? WHY HAVE I NEVER SEEN IT?
The stricken D-dismount requirement: The dismount is still required to count toward the DV of an exercise, so we son't be seeing an onslaught of A and B dismounts. I wonder if we might see a large number of the gymnasts who currently compete gainer layouts go back to double twists or front fulls since having a C dismount won't count against CR any more. I also wonder if we might see some bigger tumbles on floor since gymnasts don't have to worry about dismounting with a D, especially from gymnasts from lower-ranked programs that have C tumbles not in combination.
And in section 6.2 (Determining Final Score) the composition requirements are still up to 2.5. Oh FIG.
And there it is- the Dowell in the COP!
Handspring fwd on-tucked double salto off: If the 2nd salto is not completed because the gymnast lands on feet and bottom simultaneously, then the vault will be recognized as Handspring fwd on-Tucked salto fwd off (VT): So, FIG finally started putting regulations on splatty Prods. Only took them an extra quad. I hope it really does make it harder for splatted Prods to count and we don't have a bunch of inquiries where they recheck and go, "Oh, on the slo-mo replay your feet did hit the ground a nanosecond before your bum, guess you get the full difficulty value!"
FIG is seriously trying to encourage more varied and exciting UB routines. Yay! Hopefully that will pan out.
Arabian UB mounts have been upgraded to F and G, because duh. Still, no one's going to do them. But the principle of the thing.
The layout Jaeger has been upgraded to an F! Along with this, the piked Jaeger was upgraded to an E, but honestly I would have preferred to see the layout upgraded, the pike still at a D, and the straddle down to a C because that means we are still in the clutches of the straddle Jaeger onslaught.
The triple flair BB mount is a D! Still, no one is going to do it... but more incentive!
The sheep jump is now a C! I'm excited because a)I'm the one person who doesn't like sheep jumps, b)hopefully this will greatly decrease sheep jump combos, and c)Yang Bos? Pretty please?
Another skill that I love that still won't be competed got upgraded- the Li Li back spin is D!
Acro bwd and fwd within an acro line (FX): NO MORE RANDOM AERIALS FULFILLING CR!!!! This is probably the top requirement I wanted to happen, and it did!! (Still want a combo acro line requirement, too.)
The corner rule was edited: You can stand on two feet more than once! I think you still can't stand in the corner for more than 2 seconds, and if so, we have finally hit the happy medium of the corner rule! No more stork stand!
Exercise ends with acro element (no choreography after last acro) -.1 (FX): And this was an artistry deduction I've been wanting forever! Grishy's awesome, but that ending of her 2012 routine...
The double laid out Arabian is an H! FIG got their heads on straight!
Within the 8 counting elements there must be a minimum of: 3 Dance, 3 Acro (BB, FX): Well, looky here, FIG is actually responding to an issue arising in one quad in THE NEXT CODE? Who'd'a thunk? And I can settle back and enjoy the Dutch floor rotation this year without thinking, "Is this going to become a long-term trend?"
Insufficient Complexity of creativity in the movements (A complex and creative movement is one that requires training time, coordination and previous preparation) (BB, FX): New artistry deduction. So, FIG is finally requiring beam choreography other than arm-waving after years of whining about there not being enough artistry? But seriously, I hope this is enforced. I hope we see some more exciting choreo to fulfill this (bring back the leg choreo, Afan!)
Not-Glory Hallelujah
C+C or more (dance) (BB): No more C+C mixed connections. Admittedly, this will bring an end to the requisite switch+back tuck connection, which I don't mind, but there were some other cool potential connections from that bonus.
No piked side somi (BB)? Tucked side somis are some of the ugliest things on this planet, but piked ones are the Cinderellas to their tucked ugly step sisters! Please tell me I just missed it.
The missing turn deduction on floor is gone? That just doesn't make sense to me.
The insufficient use of entire floor area deduction is gone? Hopefully that won't really affect anything, and I think that's pretty likely, but still, a safeguard, you know?
The butterfly was downgraded on floor!! Two gymnasts have done it this quad, Kim Janas and Claudia Fragapane, so it's not dead, right? (Side note: oh how I miss Kim Janas). Are two gymnasts becoming too big a trend for FIG? And it was my favorite leap.
In other news of my favorite dance skills (which are never competed) being deincentivized, the double illusion turn is now gone from the table of elements. And I was hoping they'd upgrade it to a D next quad.
Other Thoughts
Support (repulsion phase) with one hand -2.00 (VT): The Mykayla Skinner deduction? The COP previously had "Touch with one hand -2.00"- I'm guessing the difference between "support" and "touch" would be she could get away with her finger-swipe under the 2013-2016 COP and not now?
I like having a general "dynamics" deduction on vault
Only 3 different elements in chronological order from the same root skill (except for Kips, Giants, and casts to HSTD) will be counted for DV, CR, and CV (UB): I'm interested to see just how much impact this will make in construction of routines. I think this may be FIG's way of trying to encourage one-arm pirouettes without encouraging pirouette-fest routines, but what do I know. Looking at Glasgow's UB final, Spiridoz, Scheder, and Harrold all would be in excess of the 3-skill limit (Spiridoz and Scheder with inbars, Harrold toe-ons). For Spiridoz and Scheder, they could just switch one or however many to a toe-on, but then they'd lose difficulty (except for Scheder's inbar shoot). So, it shall be interesting to see what happens.
If kip performed after Shaposhnikova type elements with/without 1/1 turn- apply deduction for empty swing (UB): So, this would seem to be FIG's way of warding off Shaposh-fests next quad. And this should also encourage Tkatchevs, Geingers, pirouettes, etc. connected out of Shaposh variations.
The layout Geinger appears to be an E now, though, hey FIG, you still have it under D as well. Switch that before the final draft!
So the C/D+D (or more, without rebounding) CV on beam is gone. Absolutely no CV for non-rebounding connections now.
Mount without DV (BB): So... just Mount not from the table of elements from the last COP?
Onodi Tic Toc (BB): Wait- this is a thing? WHY HAVE I NEVER SEEN IT?
The stricken D-dismount requirement: The dismount is still required to count toward the DV of an exercise, so we son't be seeing an onslaught of A and B dismounts. I wonder if we might see a large number of the gymnasts who currently compete gainer layouts go back to double twists or front fulls since having a C dismount won't count against CR any more. I also wonder if we might see some bigger tumbles on floor since gymnasts don't have to worry about dismounting with a D, especially from gymnasts from lower-ranked programs that have C tumbles not in combination.
And in section 6.2 (Determining Final Score) the composition requirements are still up to 2.5. Oh FIG.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
January Rio Predictions
Teams Qualifying at the Test Event
Romania
Brazil
Australia
Belgium
USA Team
Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, Maggie Nichols, Norah Flatley, Maddie Kocian
VT: (Flatley) Raisman, Nichols, Biles
UB: (Biles) Nichols, Flately, Kocian
BB: (Nichols) Raisman, Biles, Flatley
FX: (Flatley) Nichols, Raisman, Biles
Yeah, I know there are a ton of conspiracy theories about how the Attack Cup competitors are the ones up for second AA and so Raisman is off the team and yada yada yada, but unless another Amanar pops up from a top competitor (or another 6.0+ D score vault, the blogger mentions dutifully) or Mykayla Skinner suddenly becomes impossible to leave home, the Biles-Nichols-Raisman trifecta is definitely going. If the Amanar (and/or the Mykayla) situation does change though, it's a free-for-all and everyone have fun playing Martha because it's going to be one exciting ride. I've had a feeling that at least one new senior would make the team, and Norah's been training some awesome bars skills that could make her a UB-BB specialist that would fit the team perfectly. If the Amanar situation changes, I'm also calling Ragan Smith as a dangerous one- I could totally see her snatching up Aly's spot if the Amanar isn't her golden ticket.
China Team
Yao Jinnan, Shang Chunsong, Wang Yan, Fan Yilin, Liu Tingting
VT: (Shang Chunsong) Yao Jinnan, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan
UB: (Liu Tingting) Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Yao Jinnan
BB: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
FX: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
I definitely think this seems like the most balanced Chinese team in forever. Of course, this relies on Yao Jinnan being back in the AA, so if she's not things will shuffle. But even then, I don't think the 3-person lineups should be in too dire a state. Lots of gymnasts up on three events on this team, but still a good depth pool for them if someone falls apart either mentally or physically between now and Rio, I think.
GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Tyesha Mattis
VT: (Mattis) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
BB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
FX: (Mattis) Tinkler, Fragapane, E Downie
It feels so wrong not putting Catherine Lyons on this team seeing as she's basically been groomed for it the whole quad, but with Amy, Claudia, and Ellie, she'd only compete on bars and beam in the final, and Mattis is easily the better UB-BB specialist. If she just stays in one piece this year...
Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Angelina Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan, Daria Spiridonova
VT: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Afan, Bee Farm
UB: (Melnikova) Bee Farm, Mustafina, Spiridonova
BB: (Spiridonova) Afan, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan
With VRod's naming the 4-person core in 2015, she of course curse it not to happen. Since Vika is Vika and can never stay uninjured for more than one month at a time, I'm predicting she's off, and because VRod is VRod and whenever she opens her mouth nothing good can happen, I'm predicting Aliya's out for the AA. The weak link of this team is floor. Beam is a good and relatively nerve-free lineup for Russia (assuming Afan is doing beam next year), but of course it's Russia and it's beam, so that may end up being a weak spot as well. But in terms of how strong the events are, floor is the weaker.
Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Diana Bulimar, Laura Jurca, Catalina Ponor, Andreea Ciurusniuc
VT: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
UB: (Jurca) Ciurusniuc, Bulimar, Iordache
BB: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
FX: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
I want Izbasa back on the team, but news on her training has been spotty and she wan't put on the Olympic training squad, if I do recall correctly. It is a bit depressing to bring Ciurusniuc as a bars specialist, but Iridon is allergic to the apparatus and she's one of their best options. Bulimar could also go up for Jurca on either beam or floor. Ah, Romania is in a sad state.
Team
Finalists:
USA
Russia
China
Romania
Great Britain
Japan
Canada
Brazil
Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
The USA is the obvious pick and it will be a huge upset if they don't win, so moving on to the more exciting material. Romania looks to be ending their team-medal-at-every-Olympics streak. While I think they're looking not to be in the same extremely dangerous state this year, the rest of the Big Four and some top other nations look to be outstripping them fairly easily again for Rio. I think they'll be somewhere in the 4-6 range. The competition for the silver between China and Russia should be very exciting, with both having good depth years across the events, but I think China will maintain their silver streak due to some Russian shakiness on beam and floor. I also think GB has a good shot at the podium, though they have an uphill climb, and I think the other three might get closer to a medal than we're expecting.
All-Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Maggie Nichols
3. Larisa Iordache
I feel like I'm jinxing Simone not to complete her quad-long reign by this, but who else am I really to predict? Though I think Maggie could very well be on the chopping block for the team depending on who is suddenly wonderful this year, if she goes she is a very strong shot for the podium. Larisa is another obvious pick. Without Aliya or Vika, I don't really see much competition for these three, but if my doomsday predictions don't pan out, they could spice things up nicely.
Vault
Finalists:
Hong Un Jong
Simone Biles
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Ellie Downie
Afan
Marcia Vidaeux
Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Bee Farm
3. Simone Biles
I'm not holding my breath for the Cheng this year (but maybe?) Anyway, I'm thinking Hong Un Jong is going to pull ahead of Bee Farm this year. Not much change from last year.
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Daria Spiridonova
Aliya Mustafina
Maddie Kocian
Fan Yilin
Yao Jinnan
Becky Downie
Sophie Scheder
Simone Biles/Norah Flatley
Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Yao Jinnan
3. Daria Spiridonova
I feel like Yao Jinnan might be the more prudent gold-medal pick, but I want it to be Fan Yilin, so I went with her anyway. I'm expecting it to be China-China-Russia, regardless of the combination of gymnasts. Yeah, I have Simone potentially making it. she was two-pered last year, don't forget!
Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Norah Flatley
Larisa Iordache
Liu Tingting
Shang Chunsong
Aliya Mustafina
Ellie Black
Pauline Schaefer
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Norah Flatley
3. Aliya Mustafina
Again, I'm going with safe options for the podium. I'm expecting beam to be a bit more Big Four-heavy than in Glasgow. I'm again expecting Larisa to have some mishap keeping her from the podium. Simone comes in again with the obvious upper hand, but I think Norah has some potential for a challenge in her as well. I think Pauline Schaefer is going to just squeak in for the final. I was debating putting in Liu Tingting for the bronze, and I'd like to see it happen. And hopefully more gymnasts than not will have routines without major errors? I know, we haven't seen it in a while, but I think this group has it in them. I believe!
Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Afan
Claudia Fragapane
Flavia Saraiva
Larisa Iordache
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Flavia Saraiva
Yeah, I'm predicting Flava-flav for the final (and the podium, apparently!) She's apparently got a 6.3 routine in the works, and she's the kind of gymnast the judges love, so I see her making it in. As for on the podium, I was going to put Raisman there, but I just kind of felt like someone unexpected would medal on floor, and Flavia was the most unexpected of the gymnasts I predicted to final. So I put her there. I think this will be a pretty competitive final- aside from Simone, everyone is at a fairly equal playing field. I also think there are others at about the same level outside this group, so it should be fun to watch the fight to make it in. I'm really looking forward to this one!
Romania
Brazil
Australia
Belgium
USA Team
Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, Maggie Nichols, Norah Flatley, Maddie Kocian
VT: (Flatley) Raisman, Nichols, Biles
UB: (Biles) Nichols, Flately, Kocian
BB: (Nichols) Raisman, Biles, Flatley
FX: (Flatley) Nichols, Raisman, Biles
Yeah, I know there are a ton of conspiracy theories about how the Attack Cup competitors are the ones up for second AA and so Raisman is off the team and yada yada yada, but unless another Amanar pops up from a top competitor (or another 6.0+ D score vault, the blogger mentions dutifully) or Mykayla Skinner suddenly becomes impossible to leave home, the Biles-Nichols-Raisman trifecta is definitely going. If the Amanar (and/or the Mykayla) situation does change though, it's a free-for-all and everyone have fun playing Martha because it's going to be one exciting ride. I've had a feeling that at least one new senior would make the team, and Norah's been training some awesome bars skills that could make her a UB-BB specialist that would fit the team perfectly. If the Amanar situation changes, I'm also calling Ragan Smith as a dangerous one- I could totally see her snatching up Aly's spot if the Amanar isn't her golden ticket.
China Team
Yao Jinnan, Shang Chunsong, Wang Yan, Fan Yilin, Liu Tingting
VT: (Shang Chunsong) Yao Jinnan, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan
UB: (Liu Tingting) Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Yao Jinnan
BB: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
FX: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
I definitely think this seems like the most balanced Chinese team in forever. Of course, this relies on Yao Jinnan being back in the AA, so if she's not things will shuffle. But even then, I don't think the 3-person lineups should be in too dire a state. Lots of gymnasts up on three events on this team, but still a good depth pool for them if someone falls apart either mentally or physically between now and Rio, I think.
GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Tyesha Mattis
VT: (Mattis) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
BB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
FX: (Mattis) Tinkler, Fragapane, E Downie
It feels so wrong not putting Catherine Lyons on this team seeing as she's basically been groomed for it the whole quad, but with Amy, Claudia, and Ellie, she'd only compete on bars and beam in the final, and Mattis is easily the better UB-BB specialist. If she just stays in one piece this year...
Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Angelina Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan, Daria Spiridonova
VT: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Afan, Bee Farm
UB: (Melnikova) Bee Farm, Mustafina, Spiridonova
BB: (Spiridonova) Afan, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan
With VRod's naming the 4-person core in 2015, she of course curse it not to happen. Since Vika is Vika and can never stay uninjured for more than one month at a time, I'm predicting she's off, and because VRod is VRod and whenever she opens her mouth nothing good can happen, I'm predicting Aliya's out for the AA. The weak link of this team is floor. Beam is a good and relatively nerve-free lineup for Russia (assuming Afan is doing beam next year), but of course it's Russia and it's beam, so that may end up being a weak spot as well. But in terms of how strong the events are, floor is the weaker.
Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Diana Bulimar, Laura Jurca, Catalina Ponor, Andreea Ciurusniuc
VT: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
UB: (Jurca) Ciurusniuc, Bulimar, Iordache
BB: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
FX: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
I want Izbasa back on the team, but news on her training has been spotty and she wan't put on the Olympic training squad, if I do recall correctly. It is a bit depressing to bring Ciurusniuc as a bars specialist, but Iridon is allergic to the apparatus and she's one of their best options. Bulimar could also go up for Jurca on either beam or floor. Ah, Romania is in a sad state.
Team
Finalists:
USA
Russia
China
Romania
Great Britain
Japan
Canada
Brazil
Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
The USA is the obvious pick and it will be a huge upset if they don't win, so moving on to the more exciting material. Romania looks to be ending their team-medal-at-every-Olympics streak. While I think they're looking not to be in the same extremely dangerous state this year, the rest of the Big Four and some top other nations look to be outstripping them fairly easily again for Rio. I think they'll be somewhere in the 4-6 range. The competition for the silver between China and Russia should be very exciting, with both having good depth years across the events, but I think China will maintain their silver streak due to some Russian shakiness on beam and floor. I also think GB has a good shot at the podium, though they have an uphill climb, and I think the other three might get closer to a medal than we're expecting.
All-Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Maggie Nichols
3. Larisa Iordache
I feel like I'm jinxing Simone not to complete her quad-long reign by this, but who else am I really to predict? Though I think Maggie could very well be on the chopping block for the team depending on who is suddenly wonderful this year, if she goes she is a very strong shot for the podium. Larisa is another obvious pick. Without Aliya or Vika, I don't really see much competition for these three, but if my doomsday predictions don't pan out, they could spice things up nicely.
Vault
Finalists:
Hong Un Jong
Simone Biles
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Ellie Downie
Afan
Marcia Vidaeux
Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Bee Farm
3. Simone Biles
I'm not holding my breath for the Cheng this year (but maybe?) Anyway, I'm thinking Hong Un Jong is going to pull ahead of Bee Farm this year. Not much change from last year.
Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Daria Spiridonova
Aliya Mustafina
Maddie Kocian
Fan Yilin
Yao Jinnan
Becky Downie
Sophie Scheder
Simone Biles/Norah Flatley
Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Yao Jinnan
3. Daria Spiridonova
I feel like Yao Jinnan might be the more prudent gold-medal pick, but I want it to be Fan Yilin, so I went with her anyway. I'm expecting it to be China-China-Russia, regardless of the combination of gymnasts. Yeah, I have Simone potentially making it. she was two-pered last year, don't forget!
Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Norah Flatley
Larisa Iordache
Liu Tingting
Shang Chunsong
Aliya Mustafina
Ellie Black
Pauline Schaefer
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Norah Flatley
3. Aliya Mustafina
Again, I'm going with safe options for the podium. I'm expecting beam to be a bit more Big Four-heavy than in Glasgow. I'm again expecting Larisa to have some mishap keeping her from the podium. Simone comes in again with the obvious upper hand, but I think Norah has some potential for a challenge in her as well. I think Pauline Schaefer is going to just squeak in for the final. I was debating putting in Liu Tingting for the bronze, and I'd like to see it happen. And hopefully more gymnasts than not will have routines without major errors? I know, we haven't seen it in a while, but I think this group has it in them. I believe!
Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Afan
Claudia Fragapane
Flavia Saraiva
Larisa Iordache
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Flavia Saraiva
Yeah, I'm predicting Flava-flav for the final (and the podium, apparently!) She's apparently got a 6.3 routine in the works, and she's the kind of gymnast the judges love, so I see her making it in. As for on the podium, I was going to put Raisman there, but I just kind of felt like someone unexpected would medal on floor, and Flavia was the most unexpected of the gymnasts I predicted to final. So I put her there. I think this will be a pretty competitive final- aside from Simone, everyone is at a fairly equal playing field. I also think there are others at about the same level outside this group, so it should be fun to watch the fight to make it in. I'm really looking forward to this one!
Sunday, January 10, 2016
ASU vs. Bowling Green vs. Nebraska
It was the first meet of the season for ASU, and even though they somehow only managed to outscore two of last year's meets (which I just don't understand- I think the problem is they had pretty much all non-disaster routines, but they were pretty much all in the 9.4-9.75 range), I left feeling very hopeful for the new season. THEY HAVE FRESHMAN!! THE FRESHMAN ARE LEGITIMATE CONTRIBUTORS!! So I was very happy about this meet. It also seemed just to be a very low-scoring meet in general- the highest score was 9.850.
Since it was a tri-meet, I wasn't able to have as much focus, so I won't always use the gymnast's name. Because I can't remember. And also, the announcer was potentially a gymnast behind when Nebraska was on bars. And potentially other events as well. And the scoreboard was also a bit behind.
ASU seems to be very into theme nights (I'm still scarred from last year's Who Let the Dogs Out beam music for 90s night), and this week was Disney night. Much better. And Alli Salas cemented her place as my favorite Gym Devil after naming Mulan as her favorite Disney movie.
Nebraska and Bowling Green both had decent fan sections, which was a bit of a surprise. There was definitely good support for all the teams there, and I won't be complaining the way I did when UCLA invaded last year.
Rotation 1 (ASU vault, Nebraska bars, Bowling Green beam)
Nebraska: Nebraska had more than one fall on a Jager, leading to two 8.900s, one of which was from Hollie Blanske. Bars was the farthest event from where I was sitting, so it was the one I had the hardest time focusing decently on. Read: my recaps on bars won't be great. Grace Williams and Jennie Laeng both did very nice routines to finish out the rotation. That second 8.900 I think ended up really holding Nebraska back for the rest of the meet and led to their only-194.040 result.
Bowling Green: BGSU had a pretty unsteady rotation- if I recall correctly, two gymnasts fell and a third had a very significant wobble. One gymnast (looking at the score sheet, it appears to be Victoria Heath) fell twice in her routine. They did manage to finish out the rotation well, though. Alyssa Nocella was on my Fantasy team last year, so I was interested in seeing her in person. She did a nice routine. And one gymnast had an awesome front 1.5 dismount, front dismounts being my favorite kind.
ASU: Hey guys, guess what- ASU had six vaulters! And only one vaulted a Yurchenko layout! Unfortunately, that vaulted ended up having to count seeing as one of the freshman (Corinne Belkoff) sort of crumpled on the landing. But, hey, she was a decent competitor on beam and floor, so I'm glad to have her anyway! I was super annoyed with my FantasyGym lineups in this rotation (FantasyGym side note: My team is basically Taylor Rice and Kait Kluz, Allie Salas and Taylor Allex for my own personal I-draft-ASU reasons, India McPeak for my own personal India-McPeak reasons, a few specialists, five gymnasts I didn't draft who don't appear to compete, and FRESHMEN!!) because I put up Taylor Allex in my vault lineup for 1.5 reasons, and then she did just a plain old full and Allie Salas, who I didn't put in my vault lineup, outscored her.
Rotation 2 (ASU bars, Nebraska beam, Bowling Green floor)
Nebraska: Nebraska ended up having to count another fall on beam, this one being in the 9s though, so it wasn't quite as bad. Hollie Blanske was another of the falls on the event- this just was not her night. Grace Williams rocked her BHS+LOSO+LOSO, though, which I was super happy to see. So great to see more difficult series in NCAA! Nebraska had another three-skill flight series, which I believe was BHS+BHS+LOSO, which I support! Jennie Laeng was an end-of-lineup savior again on this rotation, bringing in another 9.825 score.
Bowling Green: Alright, I've been making a list of NCAA schools whose choreographers I want to work with USAG, and I'm adding Bowling Green to that list, especially for gymnasts who aren't natural movers. Alyssa Nocella's floor did a very nice job of putting together aesthetic choreography that was more in the percussive style. Which would be very good for some of USAG's more challenging prospects. Laura Mitchell also had a very enjoyable routine, though unfortunately she ended up falling. Creagh, their final gymnast, also ended up falling, which just sort of kept up the no-one-is-staying-on theme. Also, every floor opened with this interesting screeching noise before the beep for the music, which was interesting.
ASU: So, at the end of the second rotation, ASU ended up a)the only team that didn't have to count a fall b)IN THE LEAD! The bars routines seemed to be of the let's-just-get-a-10-start-value ilk. Carissa Kraus was mid-lineup, which I found surprising seeing as she, Gades, and Micelli WERE the bars lineup last year. Instead, two freshman were the back end of the lineup. Was Rene trying to ASU-style Bridgey them? Anyway, it was an overall "Eh, there's nothing really bad going on here, but there's nothing really good going on here, either" lineup.
Rotation 3 (Bowling Green vault, ASU beam, Nebraska floor)
Bowling Green: All right, so vault ended up being sacrificed to the two 90 second events this rotation. Overall, it seemed to me that they didn't do Yurchenko vaults. I'm pretty sure I caught a tuck front half from one of the mid-lineup gymnasts, which is always good to me over a Yurchenko. their last vault, though, was a Yurchenko full, which ended up tying for their top score of the rotation.
Nebraska: Nebraska definitely brought the most E difficulty passes of the competition. There was at least one DLO and at least one double Arabian. One gymnasts- Catelyn Orel, according to the score sheet- landed one of her tumbles OOB (I believe it was a Rudi? or some other front twisting element). Blanske pulled it together on floor to put up a successful routine, though it still wasn't up to her usual standard. Ashley Lambert had the anchor routine and brought some good difficulty, getting a good score for Nebraska's rotation. Once again, Jennie Laeng was a bit of savior for the rotation (are we seeing a theme here?), and she (I'm pretty sure it was her) had a really great passage of choreography where she had a twisting jump to the floor and then some fun mini-acrobatics.
ASU: Hey guys, guess what: ONLY ONE ASU GYMNAST FELL OFF OF BEAM! That would be Beka Conrad, interestingly enough on her only event in a bit of a turn around from last year. However, Taylor Allex also had a big wobble, so they still ended up having to count a low-9s score. But still, progress! Also exciting: all the freshmen stayed on! So there's some hope for the future. One of the freshman (I don't remember who- I'll figure it out by the end of the season) had a LOSO+full dismount, which I always like seeing. Also competed by a freshman (I believe it was the same one- Udowitch?) was a one-armed front handspring+BHS. So the freshmen have also brought some cool new skills! On the subject of maybe-Udowitch, there is apparently quite a bit of confusion as to the spelling of her name. On the card, it was Udowitch, on the scoreboard it was Udodowitch, and on the score sheet it's Udodwitch. Also, we left a seat on the end of our row empty, and at the end of this rotation Sparky just came and plopped down in it, which took us a bit by surprise.
Rotation 4 (Nebraska vault, Bowling Green bars, ASU floor)
Nebraska: Hollie Blanske continued her streak from the previous event of "not falling anymore, but still not up to my usual standard" with a 9.700 on vault. Ashley Lambert, however, came in with a disappointing vault that only scored in the 9.5s. Otherwise, the scores were mostly in the 9.7 range. Jennie Laeng completed her meet of "I'm the savior of Nebraska gymnastics" by vaulting for a 9.825, the highest score on vault of the night (like I said at the beginning- this was a low-scoring meet). Overall, it just wasn't Nebraska-level vaulting.
Bowing Green: This was another ASU-style bars rotation where it all seemed to be of the let's-just-get-a-10-start-value ilk. The scores were all in the 9.4s-9.7s range. However, Ellingboe, the last gymnast up, did a full-twisting DLO dismount, which was an exciting touch.
ASU: Unfortunately, this was the only rotation where ASU had to count a fall (Allex didn't fall, so I'll still be excited about this even though they had to count a 9.225 on beam!) Eileen Imbus led off with a fall on floor, and the Salas ended up falling as well. But still, ASU still somehow had to count the least number of falls! I do think this could be a good rotation for ASU, especially if Katelyn Lentz is developed and put at the end of the lineup. Taylor Allex was a great anchor on floor with the E difficulty for ASU and the power. Also, one of the freshmen used "Lights" by Ellie Goulding as floor music, which I approve of.
Awesome skills I think Bowling Green competed but might have been Nebraska:
On floor, one gymnast did a Biles-twisting-cartwheel-butt-bounce, which was exciting
A gainer tuck full dismount from beam
A Steingruber dismount from beam (that may have been Laura Mitchell?)
Since it was a tri-meet, I wasn't able to have as much focus, so I won't always use the gymnast's name. Because I can't remember. And also, the announcer was potentially a gymnast behind when Nebraska was on bars. And potentially other events as well. And the scoreboard was also a bit behind.
ASU seems to be very into theme nights (I'm still scarred from last year's Who Let the Dogs Out beam music for 90s night), and this week was Disney night. Much better. And Alli Salas cemented her place as my favorite Gym Devil after naming Mulan as her favorite Disney movie.
Nebraska and Bowling Green both had decent fan sections, which was a bit of a surprise. There was definitely good support for all the teams there, and I won't be complaining the way I did when UCLA invaded last year.
Rotation 1 (ASU vault, Nebraska bars, Bowling Green beam)
Nebraska: Nebraska had more than one fall on a Jager, leading to two 8.900s, one of which was from Hollie Blanske. Bars was the farthest event from where I was sitting, so it was the one I had the hardest time focusing decently on. Read: my recaps on bars won't be great. Grace Williams and Jennie Laeng both did very nice routines to finish out the rotation. That second 8.900 I think ended up really holding Nebraska back for the rest of the meet and led to their only-194.040 result.
Bowling Green: BGSU had a pretty unsteady rotation- if I recall correctly, two gymnasts fell and a third had a very significant wobble. One gymnast (looking at the score sheet, it appears to be Victoria Heath) fell twice in her routine. They did manage to finish out the rotation well, though. Alyssa Nocella was on my Fantasy team last year, so I was interested in seeing her in person. She did a nice routine. And one gymnast had an awesome front 1.5 dismount, front dismounts being my favorite kind.
ASU: Hey guys, guess what- ASU had six vaulters! And only one vaulted a Yurchenko layout! Unfortunately, that vaulted ended up having to count seeing as one of the freshman (Corinne Belkoff) sort of crumpled on the landing. But, hey, she was a decent competitor on beam and floor, so I'm glad to have her anyway! I was super annoyed with my FantasyGym lineups in this rotation (FantasyGym side note: My team is basically Taylor Rice and Kait Kluz, Allie Salas and Taylor Allex for my own personal I-draft-ASU reasons, India McPeak for my own personal India-McPeak reasons, a few specialists, five gymnasts I didn't draft who don't appear to compete, and FRESHMEN!!) because I put up Taylor Allex in my vault lineup for 1.5 reasons, and then she did just a plain old full and Allie Salas, who I didn't put in my vault lineup, outscored her.
Rotation 2 (ASU bars, Nebraska beam, Bowling Green floor)
Nebraska: Nebraska ended up having to count another fall on beam, this one being in the 9s though, so it wasn't quite as bad. Hollie Blanske was another of the falls on the event- this just was not her night. Grace Williams rocked her BHS+LOSO+LOSO, though, which I was super happy to see. So great to see more difficult series in NCAA! Nebraska had another three-skill flight series, which I believe was BHS+BHS+LOSO, which I support! Jennie Laeng was an end-of-lineup savior again on this rotation, bringing in another 9.825 score.
Bowling Green: Alright, I've been making a list of NCAA schools whose choreographers I want to work with USAG, and I'm adding Bowling Green to that list, especially for gymnasts who aren't natural movers. Alyssa Nocella's floor did a very nice job of putting together aesthetic choreography that was more in the percussive style. Which would be very good for some of USAG's more challenging prospects. Laura Mitchell also had a very enjoyable routine, though unfortunately she ended up falling. Creagh, their final gymnast, also ended up falling, which just sort of kept up the no-one-is-staying-on theme. Also, every floor opened with this interesting screeching noise before the beep for the music, which was interesting.
ASU: So, at the end of the second rotation, ASU ended up a)the only team that didn't have to count a fall b)IN THE LEAD! The bars routines seemed to be of the let's-just-get-a-10-start-value ilk. Carissa Kraus was mid-lineup, which I found surprising seeing as she, Gades, and Micelli WERE the bars lineup last year. Instead, two freshman were the back end of the lineup. Was Rene trying to ASU-style Bridgey them? Anyway, it was an overall "Eh, there's nothing really bad going on here, but there's nothing really good going on here, either" lineup.
Rotation 3 (Bowling Green vault, ASU beam, Nebraska floor)
Bowling Green: All right, so vault ended up being sacrificed to the two 90 second events this rotation. Overall, it seemed to me that they didn't do Yurchenko vaults. I'm pretty sure I caught a tuck front half from one of the mid-lineup gymnasts, which is always good to me over a Yurchenko. their last vault, though, was a Yurchenko full, which ended up tying for their top score of the rotation.
Nebraska: Nebraska definitely brought the most E difficulty passes of the competition. There was at least one DLO and at least one double Arabian. One gymnasts- Catelyn Orel, according to the score sheet- landed one of her tumbles OOB (I believe it was a Rudi? or some other front twisting element). Blanske pulled it together on floor to put up a successful routine, though it still wasn't up to her usual standard. Ashley Lambert had the anchor routine and brought some good difficulty, getting a good score for Nebraska's rotation. Once again, Jennie Laeng was a bit of savior for the rotation (are we seeing a theme here?), and she (I'm pretty sure it was her) had a really great passage of choreography where she had a twisting jump to the floor and then some fun mini-acrobatics.
ASU: Hey guys, guess what: ONLY ONE ASU GYMNAST FELL OFF OF BEAM! That would be Beka Conrad, interestingly enough on her only event in a bit of a turn around from last year. However, Taylor Allex also had a big wobble, so they still ended up having to count a low-9s score. But still, progress! Also exciting: all the freshmen stayed on! So there's some hope for the future. One of the freshman (I don't remember who- I'll figure it out by the end of the season) had a LOSO+full dismount, which I always like seeing. Also competed by a freshman (I believe it was the same one- Udowitch?) was a one-armed front handspring+BHS. So the freshmen have also brought some cool new skills! On the subject of maybe-Udowitch, there is apparently quite a bit of confusion as to the spelling of her name. On the card, it was Udowitch, on the scoreboard it was Udodowitch, and on the score sheet it's Udodwitch. Also, we left a seat on the end of our row empty, and at the end of this rotation Sparky just came and plopped down in it, which took us a bit by surprise.
Rotation 4 (Nebraska vault, Bowling Green bars, ASU floor)
Nebraska: Hollie Blanske continued her streak from the previous event of "not falling anymore, but still not up to my usual standard" with a 9.700 on vault. Ashley Lambert, however, came in with a disappointing vault that only scored in the 9.5s. Otherwise, the scores were mostly in the 9.7 range. Jennie Laeng completed her meet of "I'm the savior of Nebraska gymnastics" by vaulting for a 9.825, the highest score on vault of the night (like I said at the beginning- this was a low-scoring meet). Overall, it just wasn't Nebraska-level vaulting.
Bowing Green: This was another ASU-style bars rotation where it all seemed to be of the let's-just-get-a-10-start-value ilk. The scores were all in the 9.4s-9.7s range. However, Ellingboe, the last gymnast up, did a full-twisting DLO dismount, which was an exciting touch.
ASU: Unfortunately, this was the only rotation where ASU had to count a fall (Allex didn't fall, so I'll still be excited about this even though they had to count a 9.225 on beam!) Eileen Imbus led off with a fall on floor, and the Salas ended up falling as well. But still, ASU still somehow had to count the least number of falls! I do think this could be a good rotation for ASU, especially if Katelyn Lentz is developed and put at the end of the lineup. Taylor Allex was a great anchor on floor with the E difficulty for ASU and the power. Also, one of the freshmen used "Lights" by Ellie Goulding as floor music, which I approve of.
Awesome skills I think Bowling Green competed but might have been Nebraska:
On floor, one gymnast did a Biles-twisting-cartwheel-butt-bounce, which was exciting
A gainer tuck full dismount from beam
A Steingruber dismount from beam (that may have been Laura Mitchell?)
Saturday, November 21, 2015
On the Dutch floor routines
The Dutch floor routines have created quite a stir and some heated debate on the gymternet. People seem to have one of two lines of thought regarding their dance-skill-and-artistry-heavy routines:
Who cares about the tumbling? They have beautiful artistry. Why does it matter that they only have two D passes?
or
Right, they're pretty, but tumbling isn't supposed to be an afterthought in a floor routine. It's basically just a very pretty form of code whoring.
I'm in the second camp. I enjoy watching Lieke and Eythora, but I don't support their scores (Lieke especially, since Eythora's are pretty much unable to break 14) being among the highest in the world. To use an oft-ridiculed phrase, "It's gymnastics, not dance." Even back in the ever-celebrated 1980s, the top routines had three passes, most of them having at least one pass more difficult than Lieke's and Eythora's.
Now, I'm all for encouraging artistic routines. But with the intense focus the gymternet has placed on artistry, I actually think tumbling has been undervalued in the gymternet's collective conscious. I also think it has created a mindset of artistry and difficulty as two opposing forces, with one having to win out over the other. This is a very unbalanced mindset. The tumbling elements, dance elements, and purely artistic performance aspects of a floor routine are all supposed work in harmony with one another, not compete for prominence.
There are plenty of routines where the technical and performance aspects do work in harmony (some even having very high difficulty) that seem to be forgotten when the debate over the Dutch gymnasts arises in favor of a "war between difficulty and artistry" outlook. This is supremely unhelpful because the conversation spirals into an "is tumbling or artistry more important?" issue and the actual goal of artistic gymnastics floor routines- a cohesive routine where all the elements combine to make one strong performance- is ignored. Routines with two bare-bones tumbling passes but with lots of spins and lovely artistry are just as unbalanced as routines in which every pass is mind-blowingly difficult and even clean but the gymnast can't hit full split and the choreography and performance are sorely lacking.
I love the Dutch team and enjoy watching Lieke and Eythora on floor, but their approach to constructing their routines is flawed and only feeds even more strongly into a "Neither can live while the other survives" artistry vs. tumbling sentiment. I just hope that FIG makes changes to the rules on floor next quad so I can just appreciate these routines as the pretty routines they are after this quad and not be concerned about it becoming a trend.
Who cares about the tumbling? They have beautiful artistry. Why does it matter that they only have two D passes?
or
Right, they're pretty, but tumbling isn't supposed to be an afterthought in a floor routine. It's basically just a very pretty form of code whoring.
I'm in the second camp. I enjoy watching Lieke and Eythora, but I don't support their scores (Lieke especially, since Eythora's are pretty much unable to break 14) being among the highest in the world. To use an oft-ridiculed phrase, "It's gymnastics, not dance." Even back in the ever-celebrated 1980s, the top routines had three passes, most of them having at least one pass more difficult than Lieke's and Eythora's.
Now, I'm all for encouraging artistic routines. But with the intense focus the gymternet has placed on artistry, I actually think tumbling has been undervalued in the gymternet's collective conscious. I also think it has created a mindset of artistry and difficulty as two opposing forces, with one having to win out over the other. This is a very unbalanced mindset. The tumbling elements, dance elements, and purely artistic performance aspects of a floor routine are all supposed work in harmony with one another, not compete for prominence.
There are plenty of routines where the technical and performance aspects do work in harmony (some even having very high difficulty) that seem to be forgotten when the debate over the Dutch gymnasts arises in favor of a "war between difficulty and artistry" outlook. This is supremely unhelpful because the conversation spirals into an "is tumbling or artistry more important?" issue and the actual goal of artistic gymnastics floor routines- a cohesive routine where all the elements combine to make one strong performance- is ignored. Routines with two bare-bones tumbling passes but with lots of spins and lovely artistry are just as unbalanced as routines in which every pass is mind-blowingly difficult and even clean but the gymnast can't hit full split and the choreography and performance are sorely lacking.
I love the Dutch team and enjoy watching Lieke and Eythora on floor, but their approach to constructing their routines is flawed and only feeds even more strongly into a "Neither can live while the other survives" artistry vs. tumbling sentiment. I just hope that FIG makes changes to the rules on floor next quad so I can just appreciate these routines as the pretty routines they are after this quad and not be concerned about it becoming a trend.
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
The Weirdest Worlds EVER!
Yeah, I know I'm about a week after what could be considered reasonable timing for this post, but The Gymternet just started post-Worlds coverage as has The Couch Gymnast, so I feel justified in that.
The Good Surprises
The Good Surprises
- SANNE WEVERS HAS A WORLD BEAM MEDAL!!!!
- Great Britain got a team medal on both sides
- Brenna Dowell has officially competed at a World Championships and got the pike double front named after her with only the clapping of the audience as her track
- Sanne Wevers got a SILVER on BEAM
- The Netherlands qualified directly to Rio!! And were represented in three individual finals.
- Shang Chunsong is suddenly a beast
- Gabby won the AA silver
- Vika didn't fall of the beam in a major international event final.
- Farah Ann Abdul Hadi earned a higher AA total than either of the "Belorussians."
- Did I mention Sanne Wevers is A WORLD MEDALIST ON BEAM?
The Bad Surprises
- Romania only qualifying in 13th. If the Tokyo qualifying rules were implemented this quad, they wouldn't be going to Rio.
- On the flip-side of the Netherlands qualifying to the final, Brazil was SO CLOSE!
- Flava-Flav coming in dead last in the AA final.
- Aly not making a single individual final.
- Brenna falling twice on her UB routine (though admittedly, that can't be considered too shocking)
- Only one Russian in the AA final
- Simone grabbed the beam and landed her sisone in the red in the AA final
The Just Weird
- Russia was laughing and smiling after coming in fourth?
- Russia had fewer falls in qualifications than the US?
- Simone was 2-per-ed out of the UB final with China benefiting?
- There was a FOUR-WAY TIE?
The Top 5 Weirdest Things That Happened:
5. China benefited from an American being 2-per-ed out of the UB final
4. Simone had two big errors in the AA final
3. Russia was more consistent than the US in qualifications
2. Great Britain won the team bronze
1. A FOUR-WAY TIE
Team: The competition for second through fourth was amazing. The US, China, and Great Britain all had pretty much the best competition they could reasonably expect, so it was great to see them rewarded for it. It was also very exciting to see Canada sneaking up the rankings in a couple of rounds! And we had the Netherlands making everything pretty, even if they didn't catch lightning in a bottle like they did in qualification. I think Russia seemed a bit cavalier, and Seda was the only one who really seemed to care about their performance. But it was nice to see them take it in stride.
All Around: It's so disappointing that Simone had such big errors, but she still managed to get her highest score of a Worlds all around final yet! Ridiculous! Someone made the point that Simone tends to peak earlier in the season, so hopefully that is a good sign for next year. Larisa's fight to the podium was so wonderful! She's the first from outside the top group to make the podium in years, and it was such a triumphant victory! Speaking of gymnasts coming from outside the top group, so many of them were able to climb the rankings this year! Half of the gymnasts in the top eight who get recognized were from lower-ranked groups, and three of the top ten were from the bottom group! Unfortunately, the scores needed to get into the AA final were quite high, and they weren't sustained in the final itself, but the fluidity of the placements between qualifications and the final still shows a good competition. And to round of the medalists, we have Gabby. Long may she reign. She proved herself so well at these Worlds even after a rough training.
Vault: I'm of the mind that Hong Un Jong was the rightful winner of this one. But I also just love her vaulting. It's also disappointing that Simone wasn't able to win because of her lower difficulty when she has such superior technique and execution. When will she upgrade? But either way, this was by far the most exciting vault final in a long time! The podium was so close! Also, I just love Ellie Downie's vaulting. I would not be at all surprised to see her with upgrades next year, she's got such great power and technique. Giulia's injury was horrible, but at least she's supposed to be in fairly decent shape and not too badly injured. Ah, I miss the final last year when no one was injured.
Uneven Bars: Oh my goodness, THIS FINAL! No falls, and a FOUR-WAY TIE! It's too bad about Sophie Scheder messing up her dismount, but it is nice to know that that was the biggest error of the final. I think we can all pretty much agree that Spiridonova and Kocian were not on the same level as Fan Yilin and Vika. But here's my perspective: Fan Yilin and Vika won the gold anyway. So while it wasn't necessarily the most accurate judging, when the gymnasts who were overscored didn't affect the placing of the gymnasts who were better anyway, why can't we just appreciate the fact that we witnessed a four-way tie and gymnastics history? It's not like four-way ties are going to become a common thing. With the exception of Scheder's dismount, everyone had a great routine in this final, and it will definitely be one I'll watch over and over again as the years go by. And ruby made it with her wonderful routine!
Balance Beam: SANNE WEVERS WON THE SILVER! My delusional dream is now a reality! And so nothing else that happened in this final makes me at all unhappy. Honestly, it was better than I was worried it might be. With this group of eight gymnasts, who would stay on was seriously a crap shoot. I was going into this final with the mindset that Simone would be the only gymnast to stay on just because that was a legitimate possibility and I didn't want to get my hopes up. So honestly, I'm pleased with four of them staying on. Also, Pualine Schaerffer got a medal for Germany and that was so wonderful! And Vika didn't fall in a major international beam final, so that's more than could have been expected. So yeah, this final was pretty bad, but I wasn't expecting better. And Sanne medalled! So I really can't look at this final with any objectivity or any disappointment that anything else happened. She could have been the only one to stay on and I would have been happy.
Floor: I still haven't seen this final in whole: I missed the beginning of the final as I tried to get the mobile stream up, and I couldn't watch the last four routines with music because I was watching it in public. However, I have seen all of the routines (with music) at this point, though I still don't have a great perspective on it. No falls! The only World floor final this quad with not a single fall! Simone obviously was the deserving champion, she put on her usual awesome display. As to the debate over the bronze (and silver?) medals, my opinion is that Maggie, Sae, and Shang all had routines of pretty much the same quality, and so whoever took the bronze took it rightfully. It's sad, but true: sometimes a medal could go more than one way. Also, overall, the E scores were pretty high in this final, which was nice to see. And who doesn't like just watching Lieke's routine?
My favorite final: Bars. Only one major error which wasn't even that big comparatively and a four-way tie. This is one of my favorite finals of all time.
My least favorite final: Beam. Though, as I said earlier, I'm still not that unhappy with it. Sanne!
Overall, I really enjoyed these Worlds. The competition was generally pretty strong and so much unexpected happened! And there were people who thought this Worlds was boring.
Overall, I really enjoyed these Worlds. The competition was generally pretty strong and so much unexpected happened! And there were people who thought this Worlds was boring.
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