(Senior) Euros Predictions

With the whole end of the school year hubbub, I got caught off guard once again this year as to just how close Euros are. Close as in, they start Wednesday. So here are my predictions for the senior scene, because I'm honestly not informed enough to do junior predictions. So here are those: ZUBOVA WINS EVERYTHING!


Team
Finalists:
Russia
Romania
Great Britain
Italy
Germany
France
Belgium
Switzerland

Podium:
1. Russia
2. Great Britain
3. Italy
Russia and GB look pretty firmly at the head of the pack. Otherwise, a lot of teams aren't sending full A team squads. I'm really not quite sure who to pick for bronze.


Vault
Finalists:
Giulia Steingruber
Seda Tutkhalyan
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Ellie Downie
Claudia Fragapane
Zsofia Kovacs
Teja Belak
Tjasa Kysselef

Podium:
1. Giulia Steingruber
2. Ellie Downie
3. Afan
This, of course, assumes Afan will come with two vaults, which you can never be certain of. Steingruber is clearly the favorite, as always at Euros this quad. Ellie's work is always easy on the eyes and allows for some good scores, and I hope to see her rewarded for it at a high-level international this week.


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Daria Spiridonova
Becky Downie
Ruby Harrold
Nina Derwael
Loan His
Kim Bui
Martina Rizzelli

Podium:
1. Daria Spiridonova
2. Becky Downie
3. Aliya Mustafina
Becky Downie's hit magic at Euros the last two years, so I'm picking her as safe for this final. Daria is obviously the clear front runner, like Giulia in vault. Aliya's basic routine should be clean enough for her to take a medal easily in this field.


Balance Beam
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Angelina Melnikova
Catalina Ponor
Gabby Jupp
Becky Downie
Nina Derwael
Giulia Steingruber
Vasiliki Millousi

Podium:
1. Angelina Melnikova
2. Aliya Mustafina
3. Catalina Ponor
Melnikova has been dominating the beam so far. Aliya and Catalina are both consistent picks with routines that garner high scores.


Floor
Finalists:
Giulia Steingruber
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Angelina Melnikova
Claudia Fragapane
Ellie Downie
Elisa Meneghini
Catalina Ponor
Yana Horokhova

Podium:
1. Afan
2. Giula Steingruber
3. Claudia Fragapane
I had absolutely no idea who to pick for the last EF spot, so I went Horokhova because I like her and she made a World Cup EF on floor, so why not. Afan has had a good legacy on floor in her comeback, so she seemed the obvious choice for gold. And though Claudia has a bit of a history of outplacing Giulia, Giulia's Gogean! I'd like to see her get a higher medal at Euros.

May Rio Predictions

Now that the Test Event has passed and the US have presented all their top gymnasts (who aren't injured), I'm going to do predictions again. Because it's the Olympic year, and why not do predictions a bunch of times?

USA Team
Simone Biles, Gabby Douglas, Aly Raisman, Brenna Dowell, Laurie Hernanadez
VT: (Hernandez) Douglas, Dowell, Biles
UB: (Biles) Douglas, Hernandez, Dowell
BB: (Douglas) Raisman, Hernandez, Biles
FX: (Douglas) Hernandez, Raisman, Biles
I was still holding out for Norah, but the Classics list has been released and she's still not on the roster, which is not good news. Yes, I included Dowell. Get used to predictions that seem to be a bit optimistic, because this will not be the last. I mean really, why not go for your I-mean-it-could-happen predictions in an ultimately inconsequential blog post? But seriously, if she can get the Amanar back and prove that the fall in the Pac Rims EF was just a fluke, she will be a tough asset to leave home. So, Brenna darling, do us a favor and get the Amanar back, okay? I'm sure it can't be all that hard (sarcasm, if I didn't make that obviously clear enough). This is one ridiculous floor team.

China Team
Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Mao Yi, Liu Tingting, Tan Jiaxin
VT: (Shang) Liu, Tan, Mao
UB: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Fan
BB: (Mao) Liu, Shang, Fan
FX: (Liu) Tan, Shang, Mao
I know China already named their team, but I really just think Tan Jiaxin makes a much smarter team member than Wang Yan. Ultimately, they have an awesome mix of ladies who are extremely well-suited to a six-person team, which makes things annoying here. China has, somewhat shockingly, come to a place where Wang Yan isn't necessary for either their vault or floor lineups. And Liu's higher beam consistency and AA potential give her higher stock than Wang Yan, in my opinion.

GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Rebecca Tunney
VT: (Tunney) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Fragapane) E Downie, Tunney, B Downie
BB: (Tunney) Fragapane, E Downie, B Downie
FX: (Tunney) Tinkler, E Downie, Fragapane
Whelp, Catherine Lyons is inheriting the can't-stay-healthy-for-more-than-a-week curse, and Tyesha, who I really wanted to go for UB and BB, has had it all along, so curtains for both of them. But guess who has surfaced again? Rebecca Tunney! So please let this not curse her to be an invalid, too.

Russia Team
Angelina Melnikova, Maria Kharenkova, Aliya Mustafina, Ksenia Afanasyeva, Maria Paseka
VT: (Kharenkova) Melnikova, Afan, Paseka
UB: (Tutkhalyan) Melnikova, Paseka, Mustafina
BB: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Paseka) Kharenkova, Melnikova, Afan
I'm holding to my prediction that Vika will not be back to compete this season and Aliya will be relegated to two events, thanks to the curse of VRod. Melka has been absolutely on fire so far, so hopefully she can take a spot and run with it. Kharenkova has shown herself to be a surprisingly good option so far, doing well on beam in all phases of the competition and putting up respectable floor scores in two (well, a 14.900 is certainly more than respectable, but also steering rather determinedly toward the ridiculous) at Russian Champs, and she did well at Osijek on beam also.

Brazil Team
Flavia Saraiva, Jade Barbosa, Lorraine Oliveira, Rebeca Andrade, Daniele Hypolito
VT: (Saraiva) Oliveira, Barbosa, Andrade
UB: (Barbosa) Oliveira, Saraiva, Andrade
BB: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
FX: (Oliveira) Hypolito, Barbosa, Saraiva
Andrade is baaaaack!! This is a really well-balanced team, and they look poised to do amazing things!


Team
Finalists:
USA
China
Russia
GB
Brazil
Canada
Germany
Japan

Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Brazil
Yep. Brazil. I did it. I told you there were predictions in this that verge away from the strictly realistic. They completely rocked the house at the test event, so it seems home crowd support really does carry them. I mean, they got a higher score than China did in qualifications at Glasgow! I'm pulling for them, blindly, some might say. And I have the US and China 1-2 because of course.


All Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Gabby Douglas
3. Angelina Melnikova
Larisa is looking not to be at ideal condition to be earning an Olympic ticket, and I want her to get it so badly, but because NOTHING can go right for Romania at the moment, I'm not holding my breath. Cata is going. I'm working on accepting it. And if Larisa can get the spot, then good surprise for me. But anyway, all that to say: I'm predicting Vika, Aliya, and Larisa are out, leaving things a bit sparse at the top. But once again, Melka has been on fire, so she shall swoop in to claim the open spot!


Vault
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Hong Un Jong
Maria Paseka
Ellie Downie
Giulia Steingruber
Dipa Karmaker
Marcia Videux
Alexa Moreno

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Maria Paseka
Biles has gotten the Cheng! Let the world rejoice! She shall finally reign vault! And Hong Un Jong must place higher than Maria Paseka- please!


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Aliya Mustafina
Fan Yilin
Shang Chunsong
Elisabeth Seitz
Sophie Scheder
Becky Downie
Brenna Dowell
Gabby Douglas

Podim:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Shang Chunsong
3. Elisabeth Seitz
Another pretty stacked deck. Bars has been ridiculous this quad. Fan unveiled the 7.0 D-score routine, and, oddly enough, she's the only world champion from last year who I predict will return to defend her title, so the chances are looking pretty promising for her to validate my desires and claim the Olympic title. Aliya needs to add something more to her basic routine to medal again, which I would be 100% behind. Shang NEEDS a medal from a high competition, and fortunately, she's looking to be toward the forefront of this pack. And for the final spot (assuming Aliya sticks with basic), I want it to go to Downie, but she's too inconsistent to be a strong pick.


Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Laurie Hernandez
Sanne Wevers
Pauline Schaefer
Liu Tingting
Flavia Saraiva
Shang Chunsong
Maria Kharenkova

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Laurie Hernandez
3. Flavia Saraiva
Fortunately, with some gymnasts becoming markedly more consistent this year, it looks like this year's beam final might be a significant improvement from last year's. Flava Flav (did I make this up myself? because I was pretty sure it was a common nickname when I started using it but I don't actually see it anywhere...) is an example of one of those who has blessedly improved her consistency. The Americans look good to be consistent as well. And then there's the predictions I refuse to make for reasons....


Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Ksenia Afanasyeva
Giulia Steingruber
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong
Claudia Fragapane
Ellie Downie

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Aly Raisman
3. Ksenia Afanasyeva
I had Flavia making the final in January, but the mythical 6.3 routine appears to be nowhere in sight, so I must pass now. This podium pick feels obvious and boring to me, but there's nothing else I really see happening either, so... Can Claudia get a medal? Because I just really want that to happen.

The end of an era

Referring, of course, to Romania's failure to qualify a team to the Rio Olympics. What seemed unthinkable descended into the realm of possible at Glasgow's qualification round and continuously declined to the point of seeming likely before the test event. But ultimately, not even in my worst-case scenarios did I see Romania placing behind Switzerland.

Obviously, that bars issue has been dogging Romania for... ever, but that doesn't explain how they went from consistently-in-the-top-4 to second-to-last-at-the-test-event in a year and a half. And what I blame that on, honestly, is the higher-ups begging Sandra and Catalina to come back. I definitely saw a long-term decline (didn't expect not qualifying to Rio, though) as a possibility when they announced their comebacks, but I was so excited that I might see Sandra, my second-favorite gymnast, back in competition again that I really couldn't find it in myself to care. And honestly, if Sandra had competed again (mini side-rant: she went and quit her comeback because she thought the other girls were too good and then she totally would have been one of the best on the team and I could have seen her again and maybe her last competitive routine wouldn't have included a fall UGH WHY DID SHE QUIT) I still wouldn't care. But I do think it's what led to their undoing.

Why, you might ask? I'll give you two reasons: Stefania Stanila and Andreea Munteanu. Both of whom were discouraged in their training because they felt they were being told "you're not good enough, we can't rely on you" when Catalina and Sandra were called back. And guess what happened, they were needed in the end. Stefania had purpose not only as a good AAer but also as one of about two Romanian gymnasts who more often than not could stay on the bars. And Munteanu's strengths might have been better fulfilled by Cata, but she would have been such an asset at the test event. So yes, I am going to blame the immediate failure to qualify to Rio on the "Save us!" move pulled by the Romanian heads.


But, on to the teams who did qualify, because I'm super excited! I really love this group of teams, and I really like the mix we're going to see in Rio. Brazil absolutely rocked the test event, and the expectation is that they will repeat their stardom at the Games. And they've got Rebeca Andrade back!!! Flavia is going to be the darling, and her beam is to die for (and she's been hitting consistently this season)! I really think they're going to rock house this summer.

Onward to Germany. Seitz and Scheder both competing on bars will be very nice, especially should the Schimm resurface. And I'd like to see Scheder repeat on the beam final front.

Belgium did it! With a little help from Julie Crocket!! I love her so much. Can she please be healthy for longer than two seconds this year? Nina Derwael and Axelle Klinckaert are going to be such exciting prospects for them, and I'd love to see them kick butt this summer.

And finally, France. Which means Marine Brevet once again- with the Shine on You Crazy Diamond routine? I must say, I just really enjoy their unique and different choreography. The French team is just such a beautiful one.

2017-2020 COP draft thoughts

Glory Hallelujah
Handspring fwd on-tucked double salto off: If the 2nd salto is not completed because the gymnast lands on feet and bottom simultaneously, then the vault will be recognized as Handspring fwd on-Tucked salto fwd off (VT): So, FIG finally started putting regulations on splatty Prods. Only took them an extra quad. I hope it really does make it harder for splatted Prods to count and we don't have a bunch of inquiries where they recheck and go, "Oh, on the slo-mo replay your feet did hit the ground a nanosecond before your bum, guess you get the full difficulty value!"

FIG is seriously trying to encourage more varied and exciting UB routines. Yay! Hopefully that will pan out.

Arabian UB mounts have been upgraded to F and G, because duh. Still, no one's going to do them. But the principle of the thing.

The layout Jaeger has been upgraded to an F! Along with this, the piked Jaeger was upgraded to an E, but honestly I would have preferred to see the layout upgraded, the pike still at a D, and the straddle down to a C because that means we are still in the clutches of the straddle Jaeger onslaught.

The triple flair BB mount is a D! Still, no one is going to do it... but more incentive!

The sheep jump is now a C! I'm excited because a)I'm the one person who doesn't like sheep jumps, b)hopefully this will greatly decrease sheep jump combos, and c)Yang Bos? Pretty please?

Another skill that I love that still won't be competed got upgraded- the Li Li back spin is D!

Acro bwd and fwd within an acro line (FX): NO MORE RANDOM AERIALS FULFILLING CR!!!! This is probably the top requirement I wanted to happen, and it did!! (Still want a combo acro line requirement, too.)

The corner rule was edited: You can stand on two feet more than once! I think you still can't stand in the corner for more than 2 seconds, and if so, we have finally hit the happy medium of the corner rule! No more stork stand!

Exercise ends with acro element (no choreography after last acro) -.1 (FX): And this was an artistry deduction I've been wanting forever! Grishy's awesome, but that ending of her 2012 routine...

The double laid out Arabian is an H! FIG got their heads on straight!

Within the 8 counting elements there must be a minimum of: 3 Dance, 3 Acro (BB, FX): Well, looky here, FIG is actually responding to an issue arising in one quad in THE NEXT CODE? Who'd'a thunk? And I can settle back and enjoy the Dutch floor rotation this year without thinking, "Is this going to become a long-term trend?"

Insufficient Complexity of creativity in the movements (A complex and creative movement is one that requires training time, coordination and previous preparation) (BB, FX): New artistry deduction. So, FIG is finally requiring beam choreography other than arm-waving after years of whining about there not being enough artistry? But seriously, I hope this is enforced. I hope we see some more exciting choreo to fulfill this (bring back the leg choreo, Afan!)




Not-Glory Hallelujah
C+C or more (dance) (BB): No more C+C mixed connections. Admittedly, this will bring an end to the requisite switch+back tuck connection, which I don't mind, but there were some other cool potential connections from that bonus.

No piked side somi (BB)? Tucked side somis are some of the ugliest things on this planet, but piked ones are the Cinderellas to their tucked ugly step sisters! Please tell me I just missed it.

The missing turn deduction on floor is gone? That just doesn't make sense to me.

The insufficient use of entire floor area deduction is gone? Hopefully that won't really affect anything, and I think that's pretty likely, but still, a safeguard, you know?

The butterfly was downgraded on floor!! Two gymnasts have done it this quad, Kim Janas and Claudia Fragapane, so it's not dead, right? (Side note: oh how I miss Kim Janas). Are two gymnasts becoming too big a trend for FIG? And it was my favorite leap.

In other news of my favorite dance skills (which are never competed) being deincentivized, the double illusion turn is now gone from the table of elements. And I was hoping they'd upgrade it to a D next quad.




Other Thoughts
Support (repulsion phase) with one hand -2.00 (VT): The Mykayla Skinner deduction? The COP previously had "Touch with one hand -2.00"- I'm guessing the difference between "support" and "touch" would be she could get away with her finger-swipe under the 2013-2016 COP and not now?

I like having a general "dynamics" deduction on vault

Only 3 different elements in chronological order from the same root skill (except for Kips, Giants, and casts to HSTD) will be counted for DV, CR, and CV (UB): I'm interested to see just how much impact this will make in construction of routines. I think this may be FIG's way of trying to encourage one-arm pirouettes without encouraging pirouette-fest routines, but what do I know. Looking at Glasgow's UB final, Spiridoz, Scheder, and Harrold all would be in excess of the 3-skill limit (Spiridoz and Scheder with inbars, Harrold toe-ons). For Spiridoz and Scheder, they could just switch one or however many to a toe-on, but then they'd lose difficulty (except for Scheder's inbar shoot). So, it shall be interesting to see what happens.

If kip performed after Shaposhnikova type elements with/without 1/1 turn- apply deduction for empty swing (UB): So, this would seem to be FIG's way of warding off Shaposh-fests next quad. And this should also encourage Tkatchevs, Geingers, pirouettes, etc. connected out of Shaposh variations.

The layout Geinger appears to be an E now, though, hey FIG, you still have it under D as well. Switch that before the final draft!

So the C/D+D (or more, without rebounding) CV on beam is gone. Absolutely no CV for non-rebounding connections now.

Mount without DV (BB): So... just Mount not from the table of elements from the last COP?

Onodi Tic Toc (BB): Wait- this is a thing? WHY HAVE I NEVER SEEN IT?

The stricken D-dismount requirement: The dismount is still required to count toward the DV of an exercise, so we son't be seeing an onslaught of A and B dismounts. I wonder if we might see a large number of the gymnasts who currently compete gainer layouts go back to double twists or front fulls since having a C dismount won't count against CR any more. I also wonder if we might see some bigger tumbles on floor since gymnasts don't have to worry about dismounting with a D, especially from gymnasts from lower-ranked programs that have C tumbles not in combination.

And in section 6.2 (Determining Final Score) the composition requirements are still up to 2.5. Oh FIG.

And there it is- the Dowell in the COP!

January Rio Predictions

Teams Qualifying at the Test Event
Romania
Brazil
Australia
Belgium


USA Team
Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, Maggie Nichols, Norah Flatley, Maddie Kocian
VT: (Flatley) Raisman, Nichols, Biles
UB: (Biles) Nichols, Flately, Kocian
BB: (Nichols) Raisman, Biles, Flatley
FX: (Flatley) Nichols, Raisman, Biles
Yeah, I know there are a ton of conspiracy theories about how the Attack Cup competitors are the ones up for second AA and so Raisman is off the team and yada yada yada, but unless another Amanar pops up from a top competitor (or another 6.0+ D score vault, the blogger mentions dutifully) or Mykayla Skinner suddenly becomes impossible to leave home, the Biles-Nichols-Raisman trifecta is definitely going. If the Amanar (and/or the Mykayla) situation does change though, it's a free-for-all and everyone have fun playing Martha because it's going to be one exciting ride. I've had a feeling that at least one new senior would make the team, and Norah's been training some awesome bars skills that could make her a UB-BB specialist that would fit the team perfectly. If the Amanar situation changes, I'm also calling Ragan Smith as a dangerous one- I could totally see her snatching up Aly's spot if the Amanar isn't her golden ticket.

China Team
Yao Jinnan, Shang Chunsong, Wang Yan, Fan Yilin, Liu Tingting
VT: (Shang Chunsong) Yao Jinnan, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan
UB: (Liu Tingting) Shang Chunsong, Fan Yilin, Yao Jinnan
BB: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
FX: (Yao Jinnan) Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, Shang Chunsong
I definitely think this seems like the most balanced Chinese team in forever. Of course, this relies on Yao Jinnan being back in the AA, so if she's not things will shuffle. But even then, I don't think the 3-person lineups should be in too dire a state. Lots of gymnasts up on three events on this team, but still a good depth pool for them if someone falls apart either mentally or physically between now and Rio, I think.

GB Team
Ellie Downie, Amy Tinkler, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Tyesha Mattis
VT: (Mattis) Fragapane, Tinkler, E Downie
UB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
BB: (Tinkler) E Downie, Mattis, B Downie
FX: (Mattis) Tinkler, Fragapane, E Downie
It feels so wrong not putting Catherine Lyons on this team seeing as she's basically been groomed for it the whole quad, but with Amy, Claudia, and Ellie, she'd only compete on bars and beam in the final, and Mattis is easily the better UB-BB specialist. If she just stays in one piece this year...

Russia Team
Aliya Mustafina, Angelina Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan, Daria Spiridonova
VT: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Afan, Bee Farm
UB: (Melnikova) Bee Farm, Mustafina, Spiridonova
BB: (Spiridonova) Afan, Melnikova, Mustafina
FX: (Spiridonova) Melnikova, Bee Farm, Afan
With VRod's naming the 4-person core in 2015, she of course curse it not to happen. Since Vika is Vika and can never stay uninjured for more than one month at a time, I'm predicting she's off, and because VRod is VRod and whenever she opens her mouth nothing good can happen, I'm predicting Aliya's out for the AA. The weak link of this team is floor. Beam is a good and relatively nerve-free lineup for Russia (assuming Afan is doing beam next year), but of course it's Russia and it's beam, so that may end up being a weak spot as well. But in terms of how strong the events are, floor is the weaker.

Romania Team
Larisa Iordache, Diana Bulimar, Laura Jurca, Catalina Ponor, Andreea Ciurusniuc
VT: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
UB: (Jurca) Ciurusniuc, Bulimar, Iordache
BB: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
FX: (Bulimar) Jurca, Ponor, Iordache
I want Izbasa back on the team, but news on her training has been spotty and she wan't put on the Olympic training squad, if I do recall correctly. It is a bit depressing to bring Ciurusniuc as a bars specialist, but Iridon is allergic to the apparatus and she's one of their best options. Bulimar could also go up for Jurca on either beam or floor. Ah, Romania is in a sad state.



Team
Finalists:
USA
Russia
China
Romania
Great Britain
Japan
Canada
Brazil

Podium:
1. USA
2. China
3. Russia
The USA is the obvious pick and it will be a huge upset if they don't win, so moving on to the more exciting material. Romania looks to be ending their team-medal-at-every-Olympics streak. While I think they're looking not to be in the same extremely dangerous state this year, the rest of the Big Four and some top other nations look to be outstripping them fairly easily again for Rio. I think they'll be somewhere in the 4-6 range. The competition for the silver between China and Russia should be very exciting, with both having good depth years across the events, but I think China will maintain their silver streak due to some Russian shakiness on beam and floor. I also think GB has a good shot at the podium, though they have an uphill climb, and I think the other three might get closer to a medal than we're expecting.


All-Around
Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Maggie Nichols
3. Larisa Iordache
I feel like I'm jinxing Simone not to complete her quad-long reign by this, but who else am I really to predict? Though I think Maggie could very well be on the chopping block for the team depending on who is suddenly wonderful this year, if she goes she is a very strong shot for the podium. Larisa is another obvious pick. Without Aliya or Vika, I don't really see much competition for these three, but if my doomsday predictions don't pan out, they could spice things up nicely.


Vault
Finalists:
Hong Un Jong
Simone Biles
Maria Paseka
Giulia Steingruber
Wang Yan
Ellie Downie
Afan
Marcia Vidaeux

Podium:
1. Hong Un Jong
2. Bee Farm
3. Simone Biles
I'm not holding my breath for the Cheng this year (but maybe?) Anyway, I'm thinking Hong Un Jong is going to pull ahead of Bee Farm this year. Not much change from last year.


Uneven Bars
Finalists:
Daria Spiridonova
Aliya Mustafina
Maddie Kocian
Fan Yilin
Yao Jinnan
Becky Downie
Sophie Scheder
Simone Biles/Norah Flatley

Podium:
1. Fan Yilin
2. Yao Jinnan
3. Daria Spiridonova
I feel like Yao Jinnan might be the more prudent gold-medal pick, but I want it to be Fan Yilin, so I went with her anyway. I'm expecting it to be China-China-Russia, regardless of the combination of gymnasts. Yeah, I have Simone potentially making it. she was two-pered last year, don't forget!


Balance Beam
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Norah Flatley
Larisa Iordache
Liu Tingting
Shang Chunsong
Aliya Mustafina
Ellie Black
Pauline Schaefer

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Norah Flatley
3. Aliya Mustafina
Again, I'm going with safe options for the podium. I'm expecting beam to be a bit more Big Four-heavy than in Glasgow. I'm again expecting Larisa to have some mishap keeping her from the podium. Simone comes in again with the obvious upper hand, but I think Norah has some potential for a challenge in her as well. I think Pauline Schaefer is going to just squeak in for the final. I was debating putting in Liu Tingting for the bronze, and I'd like to see it happen. And hopefully more gymnasts than not will have routines without major errors? I know, we haven't seen it in a while, but I think this group has it in them. I believe!


Floor
Finalists:
Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Afan
Claudia Fragapane
Flavia Saraiva
Larisa Iordache
Sae Miyakawa
Shang Chunsong

Podium:
1. Simone Biles
2. Larisa Iordache
3. Flavia Saraiva
Yeah, I'm predicting Flava-flav for the final (and the podium, apparently!) She's apparently got a 6.3 routine in the works, and she's the kind of gymnast the judges love, so I see her making it in. As for on the podium, I was going to put Raisman there, but I just kind of felt like someone unexpected would medal on floor, and Flavia was the most unexpected of the gymnasts I predicted to final. So I put her there. I think this will be a pretty competitive final- aside from Simone, everyone is at a fairly equal playing field. I also think there are others at about the same level outside this group, so it should be fun to watch the fight to make it in. I'm really looking forward to this one!

ASU vs. Bowling Green vs. Nebraska

It was the first meet of the season for ASU, and even though they somehow only managed to outscore two of last year's meets (which I just don't understand- I think the problem is they had pretty much all non-disaster routines, but they were pretty much all in the 9.4-9.75 range), I left feeling very hopeful for the new season. THEY HAVE FRESHMAN!! THE FRESHMAN ARE LEGITIMATE CONTRIBUTORS!! So I was very happy about this meet. It also seemed just to be a very low-scoring meet in general- the highest score was 9.850.

Since it was a tri-meet, I wasn't able to have as much focus, so I won't always use the gymnast's name. Because I can't remember. And also, the announcer was potentially a gymnast behind when Nebraska was on bars. And potentially other events as well. And the scoreboard was also a bit behind.

ASU seems to be very into theme nights (I'm still scarred from last year's Who Let the Dogs Out beam music for 90s night), and this week was Disney night. Much better. And Alli Salas cemented her place as my favorite Gym Devil after naming Mulan as her favorite Disney movie.

Nebraska and Bowling Green both had decent fan sections, which was a bit of a surprise. There was definitely good support for all the teams there, and I won't be complaining the way I did when UCLA invaded last year.


Rotation 1 (ASU vault, Nebraska bars, Bowling Green beam)
Nebraska: Nebraska had more than one fall on a Jager, leading to two 8.900s, one of which was from Hollie Blanske. Bars was the farthest event from where I was sitting, so it was the one I had the hardest time focusing decently on. Read: my recaps on bars won't be great. Grace Williams and Jennie Laeng both did very nice routines to finish out the rotation. That second 8.900 I think ended up really holding Nebraska back for the rest of the meet and led to their only-194.040 result.

Bowling Green: BGSU had a pretty unsteady rotation- if I recall correctly, two gymnasts fell and a third had a very significant wobble. One gymnast (looking at the score sheet, it appears to be Victoria Heath) fell twice in her routine. They did manage to finish out the rotation well, though. Alyssa Nocella was on my Fantasy team last year, so I was interested in seeing her in person. She did a nice routine. And one gymnast had an awesome front 1.5 dismount, front dismounts being my favorite kind.

ASU: Hey guys, guess what- ASU had six vaulters! And only one vaulted a Yurchenko layout! Unfortunately, that vaulted ended up having to count seeing as one of the freshman (Corinne Belkoff) sort of crumpled on the landing. But, hey, she was a decent competitor on beam and floor, so I'm glad to have her anyway! I was super annoyed with my FantasyGym lineups in this rotation (FantasyGym side note: My team is basically Taylor Rice and Kait Kluz, Allie Salas and Taylor Allex for my own personal I-draft-ASU reasons, India McPeak for my own personal India-McPeak reasons, a few specialists, five gymnasts I didn't draft who don't appear to compete, and FRESHMEN!!) because I put up Taylor Allex in my vault lineup for 1.5 reasons, and then she did just a plain old full and Allie Salas, who I didn't put in my vault lineup, outscored her.


Rotation 2 (ASU bars, Nebraska beam, Bowling Green floor)
Nebraska: Nebraska ended up having to count another fall on beam, this one being in the 9s though, so it wasn't quite as bad. Hollie Blanske was another of the falls on the event- this just was not her night. Grace Williams rocked her BHS+LOSO+LOSO, though, which I was super happy to see. So great to see more difficult series in NCAA! Nebraska had another three-skill flight series, which I believe was BHS+BHS+LOSO, which I support! Jennie Laeng was an end-of-lineup savior again on this rotation, bringing in another 9.825 score.

Bowling Green: Alright, I've been making a list of NCAA schools whose choreographers I want to work with USAG, and I'm adding Bowling Green to that list, especially for gymnasts who aren't natural movers. Alyssa Nocella's floor did a very nice job of putting together aesthetic choreography that was more in the percussive style. Which would be very good for some of USAG's more challenging prospects. Laura Mitchell also had a very enjoyable routine, though unfortunately she ended up falling. Creagh, their final gymnast, also ended up falling, which just sort of kept up the no-one-is-staying-on theme. Also, every floor opened with this interesting screeching noise before the beep for the music, which was interesting.

ASU: So, at the end of the second rotation, ASU ended up a)the only team that didn't have to count a fall b)IN THE LEAD! The bars routines seemed to be of the let's-just-get-a-10-start-value ilk. Carissa Kraus was mid-lineup, which I found surprising seeing as she, Gades, and Micelli WERE the bars lineup last year. Instead, two freshman were the back end of the lineup. Was Rene trying to ASU-style Bridgey them? Anyway, it was an overall "Eh, there's nothing really bad going on here, but there's nothing really good going on here, either" lineup.


Rotation 3 (Bowling Green vault, ASU beam, Nebraska floor)
Bowling Green: All right, so vault ended up being sacrificed to the two 90 second events this rotation. Overall, it seemed to me that they didn't do Yurchenko vaults. I'm pretty sure I caught a tuck front half from one of the mid-lineup gymnasts, which is always good to me over a Yurchenko. their last vault, though, was a Yurchenko full, which ended up tying for their top score of the rotation.

Nebraska: Nebraska definitely brought the most E difficulty passes of the competition. There was at least one DLO and at least one double Arabian. One gymnasts- Catelyn Orel, according to the score sheet- landed one of her tumbles OOB (I believe it was a Rudi? or some other front twisting element). Blanske pulled it together on floor to put up a successful routine, though it still wasn't up to her usual standard. Ashley Lambert had the anchor routine and brought some good difficulty, getting a good score for Nebraska's rotation. Once again, Jennie Laeng was a bit of savior for the rotation (are we seeing a theme here?), and she (I'm pretty sure it was her) had a really great passage of choreography where she had a twisting jump to the floor and then some fun mini-acrobatics.

ASU: Hey guys, guess what: ONLY ONE ASU GYMNAST FELL OFF OF BEAM! That would be Beka Conrad, interestingly enough on her only event in a bit of a turn around from last year. However, Taylor Allex also had a big wobble, so they still ended up having to count a low-9s score. But still, progress! Also exciting: all the freshmen stayed on! So there's some hope for the future. One of the freshman (I don't remember who- I'll figure it out by the end of the season) had a LOSO+full dismount, which I always like seeing. Also competed by a freshman (I believe it was the same one- Udowitch?) was a one-armed front handspring+BHS. So the freshmen have also brought some cool new skills! On the subject of maybe-Udowitch, there is apparently quite a bit of confusion as to the spelling of her name. On the card, it was Udowitch, on the scoreboard it was Udodowitch, and on the score sheet it's Udodwitch. Also, we left a seat on the end of our row empty, and at the end of this rotation Sparky just came and plopped down in it, which took us a bit by surprise.


Rotation 4 (Nebraska vault, Bowling Green bars, ASU floor)
Nebraska: Hollie Blanske continued her streak from the previous event of "not falling anymore, but still not up to my usual standard" with a 9.700 on vault. Ashley Lambert, however, came in with a disappointing vault that only scored in the 9.5s. Otherwise, the scores were mostly in the 9.7 range. Jennie Laeng completed her meet of "I'm the savior of Nebraska gymnastics" by vaulting for a 9.825, the highest score on vault of the night (like I said at the beginning- this was a low-scoring meet). Overall, it just wasn't Nebraska-level vaulting.

Bowing Green: This was another ASU-style bars rotation where it all seemed to be of the let's-just-get-a-10-start-value ilk. The scores were all in the 9.4s-9.7s range. However, Ellingboe, the last gymnast up, did a full-twisting DLO dismount, which was an exciting touch.

ASU: Unfortunately, this was the only rotation where ASU had to count a fall (Allex didn't fall, so I'll still be excited about this even though they had to count a 9.225 on beam!) Eileen Imbus led off with a fall on floor, and the Salas ended up falling as well. But still, ASU still somehow had to count the least number of falls! I do think this could be a good rotation for ASU, especially if Katelyn Lentz is developed and put at the end of the lineup. Taylor Allex was a great anchor on floor with the E difficulty for ASU and the power. Also, one of the freshmen used "Lights" by Ellie Goulding as floor music, which I approve of.


Awesome skills I think Bowling Green competed but might have been Nebraska:
On floor, one gymnast did a Biles-twisting-cartwheel-butt-bounce, which was exciting
A gainer tuck full dismount from beam
A Steingruber dismount from beam (that may have been Laura Mitchell?)

On the Dutch floor routines

The Dutch floor routines have created quite a stir and some heated debate on the gymternet. People seem to have one of two lines of thought regarding their dance-skill-and-artistry-heavy routines:

Who cares about the tumbling? They have beautiful artistry. Why does it matter that they only have two D passes?

or

Right, they're pretty, but tumbling isn't supposed to be an afterthought in a floor routine. It's basically just a very pretty form of code whoring.


I'm in the second camp. I enjoy watching Lieke and Eythora, but I don't support their scores (Lieke especially, since Eythora's are pretty much unable to break 14) being among the highest in the world. To use an oft-ridiculed phrase, "It's gymnastics, not dance." Even back in the ever-celebrated 1980s, the top routines had three passes, most of them having at least one pass more difficult than Lieke's and Eythora's.

Now, I'm all for encouraging artistic routines. But with the intense focus the gymternet has placed on artistry, I actually think tumbling has been undervalued in the gymternet's collective conscious. I also think it has created a mindset of artistry and difficulty as two opposing forces, with one having to win out over the other. This is a very unbalanced mindset. The tumbling elements, dance elements, and purely artistic performance aspects of a floor routine are all supposed work in harmony with one another, not compete for prominence.

There are plenty of routines where the technical and performance aspects do work in harmony (some even having very high difficulty) that seem to be forgotten when the debate over the Dutch gymnasts arises in favor of a "war between difficulty and artistry" outlook. This is supremely unhelpful because the conversation spirals into an "is tumbling or artistry more important?" issue and the actual goal of artistic gymnastics floor routines- a cohesive routine where all the elements combine to make one strong performance- is ignored. Routines with two bare-bones tumbling passes but with lots of spins and lovely artistry are just as unbalanced as routines in which every pass is mind-blowingly difficult and even clean but the gymnast can't hit full split and the choreography and performance are sorely lacking.

I love the Dutch team and enjoy watching Lieke and Eythora on floor, but their approach to constructing their routines is flawed and only feeds even more strongly into a "Neither can live while the other survives" artistry vs. tumbling sentiment. I just hope that FIG makes changes to the rules on floor next quad so I can just appreciate these routines as the pretty routines they are after this quad and not be concerned about it becoming a trend.