I'm super excited about these juniors after P&Gs and you should be too

Junior competitions are always a blast because you just see a ton of talent and potential and you don't have everyone scrambling to prove their worth on a major team. Here are a few juniors who made me take notice for the first time in St. Louis- so no Maile types who we've all known forever.

Riley McCusker
It seems weird to be putting the silver medalist here, but how many people knew she existed before this season? I was taken aback to realize she'll be a senior next year- holding her from elite until this year seems to go very much against Maggie's strategies with Laurie, Jazzy, and Ari Agripides. I love how she has a different style from your stereotypical MG Elite- not as showy, it seems to me. I think she could be very much a Maggie type who turns senior the first year of the quad and than just keeps building. Her foundation she has now is beautiful, and I'd love to see her take on a role as an elegant type in the US.

Sunisa Lee
Her floor is what really caught my eye in St. Louis. I love her DLO and her choreography showed tons of promise! Her bars also have nice work. I'd love to her continue to develop in the next two years before she turns senior in 2019, because she totally has the talent and lovely style.

Madeline Johnston
Madeline caught my eye on bars, which is interesting because they were super low-scoring with only a 4.8 D score, but that's actually pretty similar to Kyla Ross and Morgan Hurd's D scores their first years as elite. What surprised me is she only got an 8.0 E score both days, seeing as she seemed quite clean to me. Especially day 2, that seems low to me.

Sloane Blakely
She's another one who has fairly simple routines at this point but just looks polished. Beam especially is where she stood out to me as one who didn't have the flashiest routine, didn't even have necessarily the steadiest performance, but looked comfortable in an elite competition setting. She didn't hit her acro series either night, and as a back tuck+back tuck series, that just seems to be begging not to be credited (also, thumbs up to you, USAG judges, for not just crediting everything attempted or ignoring a completely missing CR for once and actually encouraging gymnasts to change composition that's not working for them- keep this up), but overall she just seems way more confident than I expect from a new junior.

Lauren Letzsch
Lauren's floor is fabulous and honestly reminds me more of what you'd  expect from a Russian junior than a stereotypical American junior- she has that look of Russian juniors who've been around the top scene their whole lives. She also, like Sunisa, has an awesome DLO and I love her twisting connection! Sealing the "you look like you're a Russian junior" deal is her fabulous double L+Memmel turn connection. She definitely had some rough spots on other events, but she does some nice work and I'd like to see it built upon.

Cameron Machado
Cameron really shows promise across the board. She has about middling difficulty everywhere, which is perfect for her since she's a 2019 senior, and her execution and presentation really is quite polished, setting her up well. Like I said, she really has talent on all four events, which makes me hope she'll emerge as a balanced (and stylish) AAer.

Also, I mentioned her in my Classics/Euros bullet post, but I'm gonna give Tori Tatum a bit of an extended mention here as well. I just love her style and line. Beam is unfortunately rather a thorn in her side, but she has two more years on the junior level to build confidence there and she really is just lovely on the other three events. She ups the standard junior vault difficulty a bit with a 1.5 twister, and it is gorgeous.

Out of the frying pan....

Well, Nationals are over, and for the juniors, that means we got to see some lovely new talent, and for the seniors, the field has now been cut to the 15 who will be contending for Olympic spots. May the odds be ever in your favor!

The Good

• Christina is going to Trials blessings all around!!
• Aly. What a weekend.
• Maile O'Keefe reminded everybody she exists and slayed the life out of that competition
• Riley All-the-silvers McCusker
• Brenna hit bars night 2!!
• And when she had trouble night 1 muscled through and didn't come off. I'm accepting reality that she won't be named to the team, but I am stoked that she held on both nights!
• Meals placed 6th AA and earned an automatic Trials birth GET THAT ALTERNATE SPOT
• Ragan put together the hit skills on the beam with a strong Patterson night 2 glory hallelujah
• Chae Campbell's vault
• Laurie. Beam. Night 1.
• Trinity Thomas taking flight on her rebound from her DLO
• Simone just casually getting 16s on floor and a 9.9 E score on vault, no biggie. I was honestly half expecting them to give that vault a 10.
• Maddie Kocian coming out night 2 and being all "Top that, go ahead, try" with that bar routine
• Nia Dennis placing on bars after a freaking Achilles injury in February

The Bad

• Gabby just seemed kind of off
• Morgan Hurd also was off
• Mykayla Skinner beam night 2. But 5 years from now I will still be celebrating the way she just turned her fall onto the beam into choreography. Work it.
• Jordan Chiles and Emma Malabuyo both being pulled for injury. Fortunately it's nothing too serious for either, right?
• Maggie's issues on bars night 2

The Ugly

• Deanne Soza's meltdown day 2. I hate to use such sensationalist language, but that's what it was. But again, she could very easily be blind right now. So priorities.
• Chae Campbell's dismount day 1.
• Ragan's Grishina night 1

Juniors Won Things Too It's Not Just Pre-Trials Yay!
Maile absolutely destroyed this competition. She hasn't always been the most consistent athlete in the past, so it was wonderful to see her go 8-for-8 and take the top spot in the midst of a competition riddled with issues. She's a 2018 senior, so I'm looking forward to seeing what she can bring next year as a last-year junior. I just love her double Arabian bars dismount! Her beam is completely astounding, and I really hope she can keep up this level of consistency there as she continues through her career. And I just love her giant smile when she landed her last tumbling pass day 2 and knew she had the title!
Riley is just a beautiful gymnast. Her extension and presentation is just picture-perfect. The only area with real error was her twisting (and her fall on her UB dismount day 2, but those things happen). I love seeing her floor with a non-Laurie-copycat style, which we haven't really seen from MG Elite. Everything just looked so easy for her! I'm excited to see what we see from her next year- when she'll be a senior, what?
Gabby is one I'm enjoying watching work her way to the top. She isn't always the top scorer, but she always chugs along and tends to capitalize. Her bars and beam have awesome work, and I think she has big things ahead of her!

Al's Moments of Gold

97% of the time I feel like "Replace Al with anybody, please. Literally anybody." And then there's the other 3% of the time when he comes up with gold ("Excuse me Mr. Dagget" being my favorite, of course) and I'm all "Never leave us, Al, never leave." And Al hit gold a couple times night 2.

• (To Tim) "You do a better Bela"
• "Shawn Johnson won the silver in the all around in the Olympics behind a very annoying woman"
• When he said "Flag up in the corner" so intently after Gabby's floor routine, not because the line itself was great, but because you could tell he was SO EXCITED to be correcting Tim and not playing the idiot for 2 seconds, you could tell he was just thinking "This is my moment of glory!" and reveling in it

The Olympic Puzzle

My 100%s: Simone, Aly, Laurie

Simone because duh. Aly because she has an Amanar and contributes on beam and is a favorite for a floor medal. Laurie because of bars and beam.

No, not Gabby. I'm one of about 27 who don't have her as a lock, and of those 27 I'm one of about 4 who doesn't have her there for a reason other than "She beat Miss Precious Perfect in London." Whether Miss Precious Perfect is Vika or Jordyn for that specific person.

My Fighting Contenders: Maggie, Gabby, Maddie, Mykayla

Alright, so why Gabby isn't a lock for me. As of now, she is only consistently in contributing range on bars, and to me, it just doesn't make sense to bring her just for bars. It's not like last quad where it would have been worth bringing her just for bars because the actual specialists were dead weight on the other events where we needed contributors and she had top AAer clout. The bars specialist situation is quite different this quad and she's being outstripped in the AA currently. She did outscore Laurie on vault night 2, and if I were Martha, she'd need to keep that up to get on the Gabby's on the team train. Or if she finally busts out the rumored Amanar.

Obviously we only saw two events from Maggie, but if she comes back fighting fit on vault and floor and Gabby doesn't withdraw a bigger vault from the bank, I'd take Maggie ahead of Gabby for vault and floor and lead off on bars. So many people are losing their minds over the idea of Maggie going up on bars in the team final, but she was the lead off last year and scored 14.8, so why? Though her night 2 bars didn't do her any favors.

On the Koclear front, Martha likes AA specialists over true specialists, so even though Ashton is better on bars and has been steadier on beam in the domestic season, Madison gets the bars specialist spot, assuming there is one. Which I think is about an 85% likelihood.

Mykayla has value for vault and floor, as usual, especially for having two vaults and a potential medal position with the potential for a medal with Bee Farm's questionable status. Of course, the problem is that Simone would have to go up on bars in TF with Mykayla on a team with Aly, which the US doesn't like to do.

My Outsiders: Amelia, Ashton, Ragan, Brenna

Amelia is killing it and she has huge vaulting and awesome bars, which fits nicely with the 3 up top, and she's just awesome, okay? Get that alternate spot!

Ashton has the disadvantage of being a true specialist and not doing all events, but her scores are giant (not saying entirely uninflated), and so she still must be given consideration.

After Ragan's rough Nationals, I just don't think the Olympics is in the cards for her, but she's just such a strong athlete that you still just can't count her out yet.

And Brenna. I still can't count her out completely. And vault and bars!

Some Favorite Routines
Juniors
Vault- Chae Cambell, day 2

This was just ridiculously high and flighty

Bars- Morgan Hurd, day 2

She swings so nicely in this routine, and she got the upgraded dismount quite well!

Beam- Maile O'Keefe, day 2

SHE DOES A DUDNIK ACRO SERIES

Floor- Riley McCusker, day 2

I love her style and presentation, and she's overall clean in the tumbling for the most part

Seniors
Vault- Simone Biles, night 2

Unfortunately, it seems USAG's camera spazzed out during this vault so we only get the crappy back-up camera quality

Bars- Brenna Dowell night 2

She made it through the routine without major error!

Beam- Laurie Hernandez night 1/Ragan Smith night 2

Yes, I tied them. Laurie's is perfection and I love Ragan's too much to bother much with the wobble on the full. Side note- can USAG please be consistent on whether it's "Laurie" or "Lauren" with their video titles? It's not even consistent within the same year.

Floor- Aly Raisman, night 2

This is just a wow routine. Her presentation has improved so much from last quad, and I think her form was about the best I've seen it in this one.

Trials Spots Predictions

Like with my May Rio predictions, it's the Olympic year, so why not make the most of it?

Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Gabby Douglas
Maggie Nichols
Laurie Hernandez
Ragan Smith
Madison Kocian
Ashton Locklear
Brenna Dowell
Mykayla Skinner
Alyssa Baumann
Rachel Gowey
Amelia Hundley
Bailie Key
Emily Schild

Simone, Aly, Gabby, Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, and Maddie I'd say are all locks. Ashton, Brenna, and Mykayla I think are all near-locks. They should be the pack of legitimate contenders for the team.

If Alyssa and Rachel keep putting together AA sets like they had at Classics, I don't think they should have any trouble making Trials, because while they're pretty much out of the team picture, they both could legitimately make good alternates, and Alyssa especially would be a perfectly fine team member if the situation demanded. Meals I also expect to get a spot fairly easily. She might not have an Amanar, but her DTY is big and easy, and she can swing bars nicely; in addition, she's gotten more solid on beam and has a history of strong floor work.

Bailie, of course, we have yet to see in competition this year, but her bars from PT at Classics looked very nice and along the lines of last year's work. If she comes back as expected, she should be in with the three above.

So that leaves one filler spot. I went with Schild because she has strong vault and bars and is okay on the other two events. I think if the US experienced some sort of annihilation of their gymnastics team and only five of the gymnasts at Trials could compete at the end, and one of those gymnasts had to be the filler spot, Martha would want Emily because she has two strong events and hit beam both times she's competed on it this season.

I think the other options for the filler spot would be Jazmyn Forberg and maybe Christina Desiderio. Jazzy had a really rough Classics, but if she doesn't keep melting down at Nationals, she has some strong routines with good difficulty. Christina also has a good AA set, and she scored above 14 on all her routines at Classics. Having a steady Nationals might put her in the mix for Trials.

Rant/USA depth analysis

So, I saw some idiot saying that the US doesn't really have depth right now, and because I'm irritable like that, I decided to do a little combination rant/analysis post to prove 'em wrong.

And because some idiot also recently submitted a confession to GFC saying the US was putting all of its eggs in one basket with Simone, let's start by talking about how there are still near limitless options with her gone. Without Simone, there are still Gabby, Aly, Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Brenna, and Mykayla at the top, and then Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals (she killed it at Classics and VT/UB workers are well suited to the team and her floor is awesome and I'll totally get all Hagrid don't-insult-Albus-Dumbledore-in-front-of-me when it comes to Meals) on the outside as well. That's 13 totally viable options to choose from. And a combination of options that would make picking out of a hat a viable option for a gold-contending team.

To prove my point, I had a little fun with a random generator and here are the five gymnasts I got: Aly, Bailie, Alyssa, Brenna, Rachel
VT: (Bailie) Alyssa, Brenna, Aly
UB: (Aly) Bailie, Rachel, Brenna
BB: (Rachel) Bailie, Aly, Alyssa
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Brenna, Aly
This team is definitely not close to as strong as the one that will be named assuming some plague doesn't befall the team or VRod doesn't hire the Russian mafia to Tanya Harding everyone, and China would definitely be narrowing in on it, but it would still be in the hunt for the top prize.

Too easy? Of course. Alright, let's constrain the team only to gymnasts who turned senior this quad, so not only eliminating Gabby and Aly, but also Brenna and Mykayla. So that leaves Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
I'd pick a team of Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, and Alyssa
VT: Alyssa/Ragan, Laurie, Maggie
UB: (Ragan) Maggie, Laurie, Maddie
BB: (Maggie) Alyssa, Laurie, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Laurie, Ragan, Maggie
And this one is stronger than my random generator team (not that surprising, really), so again, strong contenders for gold.

Still too easy? Maggie and Laurie carried that last team- let's get rid of them too. So now the group is reduced to Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
So the team I'd pick now is Ragan, Alyssa, Bailie, Maddie, and Meals
VT: Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Meals
UB: (Ragan) Bailie, Meals, Maddie
BB: (Meals) Bailie, Alyssa, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Meals, Ragan
Still four strong lineups, still expected to medal, still potential for gold.

So name me another team where you could constrain selection to only gymnasts who turned seniors this quad and THEN cut out the top three remaining AAers and still have a team that would be considered as much a lock for a medal as a team can ever be in this sport.

China:
Alright, so out goes Shang Chunsong, Tan Jiaxin, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, and Mao Yi.
The team: Chen Siyi, Fan Yilin, Huang Huidan, Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru
VT: Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru, Chen Siyi
UB: Zhu Xiofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
BB: Zhu Xiaofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
FX: Zhu Xiaofang, Chen Siyi, Liu Jinru
Bars is still great, and beam is fine enough, but they're stuck with an FTY on vault and floor is once again a weakness.

Russia:
For the Russian we-expect-80%-of-our-team-to-be-repeat-Olympians Federation, out go Aliya, Vika, Afan, Maria Bee Farm, Angelina Melnikova, Seda Tutkhalyan, and Maria Kharenkova.
The team: Natalia Kapitonova, Evgenia Shelgunova, Daria Skrypnik, Anastasia Dmitrieva, Daria Spiridonova
VT: Shelgunova, Skrypnik, Dmitrieva
UB: Skrypnik, Kapitonova, Spiridonova
BB: Spiridonova/Kapitonova, Skrypnik, Shelgunova
FX: Kapitonova, Dmitrieva, Shelgunova
Three DTYs for them and the bars lineup is still killer, but relying on Spiridonova, Kapitonova, or Skrypnik on beam is never a good idea and Shelgunova has been very up and down there this year as well, so who knows how many would stay on. Floor also has three okay routines, but is lacking any standout and would be outstripped pretty easily.

Even with these ridiculous eleventh plague of the Exodus plague on the gymnasts constraints, China and Russia would still be able to put together pretty good teams that would acquit themselves well, but with Brazil and GB mounting fierce offensives, both of them would have stiff competition for a place on the podium. But compare them to the US plague on the gymnasts team, who would still be a practical shoe-in for a medal and could mount a good offensive for gold, and it's ridiculously obvious that the US does, in fact, lead the world in depth.

Gymnastics Weekend Thoughts

 This past weekend was crazy in a wonderful way for a gymfan- Euros team and event finals and Classics! So much gymnastics constantly up for watching. So here are the basics of my thoughts on this weekend's competitions.


European Team Final
What I loved:

• Russia had hit routines (other than Tutkhalyan on beam, of course)
• France got the bronze!!! Beautiful. I love this team.
• Hungary, man
• Luca Diveky rising to the occasion on three events after not competing anywhere in qualifications
• So many DLOs!
• Ilaria everywhere!
• Allison Lapp on bars was lovely

What I didn't:

• On the converse of France getting the bronze, Switzerland was in fourth, and I was pulling for them to pull out their third place from qualifications again since they don't have a team at the Olympics
• GB didn't have their best day
• Becky Downie had another Commonwealth Games-style crazy off routine
• Romania again falling off the map
• Giulia continuing to have problems on beam

Junior Classics

What I loved:

• Emma Malabuyo and Gabby Perea were able to capitalize on the opportunity and finish on the podium after falls from the top competitors
• No falls on the podium!
• Irina Alexeeva's beam. 'Nuff said.
• Chiles did an Amanar, and it wasn't scary! (I don't have Gymnastike Gold or whatever it's called now they're FloGymnastics so I have no idea how it looked in Jesolo)
• Morgan Hurd upgraded like crazy (but still only has a 5.7 D score on beam?)
• Tori Tatum is my new obsession

What I didn't:

• Deanne Soza is just not looking great in her mental game (but, then again, she could very easily be blind right now, so how important is it, really?)
• Abi Walker scratched everything WHY?? I love her so much. I hate all the random scratches from Texas Dreams.
• So many falls/off routines from top competitors

Senior Classics

What I loved:

• CHRISTINA DESIDERIO WAS ON THE BROADCAST SQUEE!!!
• Aly hit her Amanar landing for the first time since quals in Glasgow
• And she had a super solid beam, which hasn't always been the case in her comeback
• Ragan's beam. Her Patterson had issues to say the least, but it's finally shown itself in competition and other than that it was about as close to perfect as Ragan can get.
• Alyssa Baumann was featured on the broadcast and it was wonderful. Her beam was killer and she's just such a diva on floor and I LOVE IT.
• Gabby's standing full and awesome save on her front pike on beam
• Way more high difficulty beam skills (fulls, Arabians) than we were led to expect in the first half of the quad
• The Svetlana Boginskaya interview!!

What I didn't:

• I totally get why no one did AA, but it definitely didn't lend itself to the most exciting competition. Floor especially felt pretty empty.
• Even though I'm not too disappointed about Ragan's Patterson, that was still sad
• Even though she was never on the start lists, it was a bit disappointing to have Bailie Key be there but not compete- I want to see her on floor especially again!

European Event Finals

What I loved:

• Giulia is putting everything on the table going into the Olympics! Her Rudi looked so effortless and I really want her to go for a front double eventually.
• Ellie Downie's gorgeous vaulting got rewarded
• SLAAAY BECKY!!! 6.9?!? How ridiculous!
• Beautiful routines from all three on the bars podium
• NO FALLS IN A BEAM FINAL!! It happened!
• Marine Boyer really did her job at this championships. And a second medal for France!
• Marine Brevet was in the floor final with her Pink Floyd routine. That is always a plus for me.
• Giulia pulling out a last minute DLO 1/1 from her floor routines in the previous rounds!
• And her Gogean of life which deserves its own mention

What I didn't:

• I really thought Zsofia was cleaner than that in the bars final
• Martina Rizelli's super rough go of it
• I personally would have liked to see Ilaria get the bronze on beam but then what do I know
• Cata seemed to have a strangely not solid beam routine
• Claudia's errors on floor