Just for some fun before the Games! I'm not going to include the US for the team podium or Simone for any individual podiums, partly because it's too crowded already, partly because it's just not quite as fun when one of the people/teams on the fantasy podium is already super dominant and expected to do as well anyway. So they can get diamond-encrusted medals (would they technically be nonmedals?- okay, I'll put away my chemistry nerd puns now). Also, if I include a gymnast who is just total fantasy and not expected to be even close to the podium, I'll put a more realistic fantasy medalist in parentheses underneath.
Team
1. Great Britain
2. Brazil
3. Germany
Can you tell I love my underdog teams? I'm seriously pulling for a bronze upset, and I think there's a really good possibility it will happen!
All Around
1. Rebeca Andrade
2. Laurie Hernandez/Aly Raisman
3. Shang Chunsong
(Giulia Steingruber)
Even with the ACL hiatus, I have remained a devoted Rebeca fan. I really hope she can shine alongside Flavia! Shang came so close last time, and with her great gymnastics and sportsmanship and her life situation, it would just be so wonderful for her to finally medal individually!
Vault
1. Giulia Steingruber
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Marcia Videaux
Giulia has been so close to the top for so long, and she's done nothing but get better. I just love her vaulting, and it would be so great for her to do well! Also, she and Marcia both get nods for not doing strictly round off-entry vaults. And Hong of the weightless Amanar!
Uneven Bars
1. Ruby Harrold
2. Becky Downie
3. Fan Yilin
(Shang Chunsong)
Ruby's bars continue to be my favorite, and the new connection is just fabulous! But she is not a likely medalist at all. Becky medaling is my #1 hope for the UB final! Both the Chinese have fabulous routines, but Fan's is just smoother.
Balance Beam
Alright, so I'm copping out on beam. I'm way too emotionally invested in the beam podium (what a great final to be super emotionally invested in) and though I try to be as un-superstitious as possible, I'm not going to jinx an already beamy final. So I'm doing my dream podium of the gymnasts not likely in the medal hunt.
1. Eythora Thorsdottir
2. Vasiliki Millousi
3. Pauline Schaefer
Three gorgeous beam beauties. I love all of their unique skill sets and choreography!
Floor
1. Claudia Fragapane
2. Aly Raisman
3. Erika Fasana
There are too many gymnasts I love on floor this year. No, no Giulia on my dream podium. I love her on floor, but I'm not a fan of her current routine. Claudia winning a major floor medal is a huge dream of mine. Aly's tumbling is so great, and I just love how she has improved her presentation since last quad! And I just love Erika as a floor performer.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Monday, July 25, 2016
The Blogger vs. Martha Karolyi
This is my official argument against the Olympic team that was chosen. Well, Gabby's inclusion. Yes, this is all so two weeks ago. At first I was working on this post because I was really ranty and I knew if I didn't get it out, my frustration with this decision would be plaguing me for a long time because I'm irritable like that and doing this would give me some peace. I'd come to the place where I felt like I was probably not going to end up posting this because just writing it out was enough to get it out, but then in the last week or so there's been huge backlash against any disagreement with the team selection (at least in some regions of the gymternet), so now I'm doing this because I feel I need to give my stand. And so that's why I'm posting this two weeks post-decision.
And, to put forward the disclaimer once again, the title is vs. Martha Karolyi because, while it is Gabby's inclusion that I disagree with, it is Martha's selection process that made the decision and that's where my blame lies.
So, this format of this is basically going to be responses to the arguments in favor of Gabby's inclusion, because most of these hold about as much water as a paper bag.
Come on, Gabby's an awesome gymnast!
Yeah, she is. So are the alternates who outperformed her.
And name me another team who wouldn't snap up the opportunity to have Maggie on their team, aside from China who could take her or leave her. Most teams would have the same response to the opportunity for Amelia or Brenna.
So let's not pretend Gabby's spot would have gone to a mediocre athlete and she was the only awesome one in contention for it.
We NEED her bars!!
The short answer to that: No.
The long answer: People really like to exaggerate the US weakness on bars. It's not up to par with their other events, but they keep pace with the majority of the world, and their consistency is good enough that they can outperform better teams who often have to absorb large errors (read: Russia). At the 2014 Worlds, the US had the highest bars total in the team final, and at the 2015 Worlds, the second-highest.
In 2012, Jordyn Wieber went up on bars in the team final, and Simone is easily better than Jordyn was. The back end of Laurie and Maddie is also at least as good as the back end of Kyla and Gabby was in 2012 (I'd be tempted to say- as a huge Kyla Ross fan- definitely better, but the domestic scoring was rather wacky, so we'll see how much that deflates). And yet no one was saying bars would be the undoing of the US in 2012.
But the Amanar has been devalued and the US has fewer Amanars this year, so they have to augment their bars lineup!
The biggest problem here is it's impossible to run a narrative of "the US are the runaway favorites for gold" alongside a "the bars lineup has to squeeze every possible tenth or else everything crumbles" argument. But aside from that, Mykayla would have addressed the whole weaker vault lineup issue. And bars would still have had a stronger lineup than 2012. Not to mention that the US has gotten stronger on beam and floor, too, especially on floor where they are untouchable if they hit.
Martha likes having built-in backup on the team, and if Mykayla was on the team, there would be a hole for backup on bars
So was Aly or McKayla the built-in bars backup in 2012?
Ultimately, no one on this team- and certainly no one outside of Simone- was necessary. Especially the fifth member, regardless of whether it was Gabby or Mykayla or anyone at Trials. The four-person core would have been favorites for gold on their own, no fifth member needed, so the fifth member was just frosting anyway. And Mykayla provides more both from a team total perspective and from an individual success perspective. Gabby's average score on bars in 2016 is .12 higher than Simone's 2016 bars average, and that's including Gabby's 15.65 at Classics. On the other hand, Mykayla's 2016 vault average is .36 higher than Laurie's, and 1)Laurie was overscored at Trials most everywhere and I'd say her vault was also comparatively high at Nationals and 2)Mykayla scored higher on vault at the 2014 Worlds than she did at home. Gabby also doesn't bring any potential for an individual medal that isn't provided just as well by another member on the team. She isn't guaranteed a bars final spot at all, and she would need a lot of help from other gymnasts making mistakes to be able to get a medal there. The only place where she could really get an individual medal is in the AA, and she's been outstripped in the AA at home. Aly and Laurie would both be at least as able to get an AA medal as Gabby. Mykayla, on the other hand, brings the potential for a second vault medal, which she would absolutely be realistically in the running for. Mykayla augments both the team total and the potential medal haul.
Her beam wasn't an important routine for her, so her falls weren't actually that important
One of the biggest arguments in favor of Gabby being on the team, even back at the beginning of the year when I was the only one saying "Hmm, I don't think she really fits this puzzle," was that she could be put up on any event at any time and be expected to put up a good score. Her falls proved she can't. They are also part of the overall progress of her getting worse this year.
She peaks late and will bring her best when she needs to. Remember 2012 and 2015!
Alright, first thing, she'll bring it "when she needs to?" Why exactly isn't the selection process "when she needs to?" To me, "she'll care if she gets a medal out of it" is about the the most unflattering argument you can use for an athlete. It rubbed me the wrong way when it was Aliya at the 2013 Worlds qualification, and I'll always have the same reaction to that argument.
Alright, on to the actual argument. The first major issue is that Gabby's performance this year is nowhere near her 2012 or 2015 performances. In 2012, Gabby was second at Nationals, and tied for first after the first day, and won Trials. So no, you can't use 2012 as a precedent for this year. In 2015, Gabby was definitely more middle-of-the-pack, but this year she's had exactly one beam routine without either a fall or a near-fall, which was absolutely not the case last year. She had more hit beam routines across fewer days of competition. Across Classics and both days of Nationals, there was also only one day where she was out of the top three AA. This year, she's very firmly out of the top three. She's also had issues with her bars this season, not so last year. Not only did Gabby not get in Olympic shape by Trials, she's gotten worse throughout the season. That doesn't fit an upward trajectory argument.
And beyond that, did she really improve all that much between Nationals and Worlds/Olympics in 2012 and 2015? As mentioned above, in 2012 Gabby already was competing at the very top of the pack at the end of the season. Her biggest issue at Trials was a stalled handstand on bars day one. Her 2012 Trials really were pretty much comparable to Laurie's this year. If Laurie were to have the caliber of performances in Rio Gabby did in London, would we be saying anything about her improving so much from Trials? And honestly, was her 2015 Nationals to Worlds improvement really that impressive? She got the AA silver, yes, but if Maggie had gone up on all four in qualifications- which I said last year, and I stand by now, I would have made the same decision Martha did if I were in her position with that team- Gabby likely wouldn't even have made the final, and would only have had fifth place in the bars finals to her name individually. Aside from her wonky night one floor, Gabby's scores were pretty similar at Nationals and at Worlds. She mostly capitalized on decisions that weren't right in hindsight and her teammate's errors. Ultimately, in neither the case of 2012 nor 2015 does the argument that she sees marked improvement internationally from the domestic season have much fact-based evidence to back it up.
Also, nobody else would have gotten anything like this kind of consideration. You know who else would likely really have used that extra month and shown improvement come the Olympics? Maggie. She had an injury that really cut her training time and was basically a competition behind everybody else. She made awesome progress by the time she competed. But for Maggie, not only did she not get the benefit of the doubt because she was behind everyone, but that kept her from getting even an alternate spot. Martha said she wasn't in the picture due to her injury and subsequent recovery, yet those very same reasons gave just as much reason to believe she would have improved during camp.
Nationals and Trials aren't really important to Martha in choosing the team
So what exactly is important to Martha in choosing the team? This Olympics, it looks like Martha made her decision based on 2015. You can't pull out the consistency argument for Gabby, because she didn't show consistency this year. Why didn't she take into account the performances close to the Olympics?
Carly fell twice at Trials in 2004! Brenna was messing up all of last year and got on the team! If you look at the whole picture and not just the most recent meets, Aly was messing up, but everyone had her on the team!
Carly: Was national co-AA champion. Was third AA at Trials even counting two falls. Had potential to be a contributor on all of the other events as well. Gabby was fourth AA at Nationals and seventh AA at Trials with her two falls. She has bars, and otherwise only has potential to outdo Laurie on vault, which Mykayla would have added much more to, and I've already gone into why bringing Mykayla makes more sense for the success of the team. Not to mention Carly also underperformed in the Olympic TF, so are you sure that's the parallel you want to draw?
Brenna: And look how well that turned out. I say this as one who was pulling for Brenna to make the team in May.
Aly: Here are the differences between Aly and Gabby-
1)Aly was one of the most reliable on beam in the country (even if she had errors and didn't get her full D score, she would hit her routine) and had the second-best floor, so she had key routines regardless of her inconsistencies elsewhere. Gabby only had bars, where there were plenty of gymnasts who had usable routines that could score reasonably close to Gabby's and had more to contribute elsewhere, and she was also easily outstripped there by Maddie and Ashton.
2)Aly has gotten better throughout the season, not worse.
No other gymnast would have gotten this response after one bad meet
Gabby didn't have one bad meet. She was lackluster in the entire domestic season. Yes, she was good at American Cup and Jesolo. Why is that more important than Nationals or Trials?
Aly and Mykayla won't score well internationally, and Martha definitely took that into account
Actually, there's not much evidence to support an argument that Aly and Mykayla's execution will be scored harsher than at home, it actually tends to be the opposite.
Aly did experience a notable score drop in Glasgow, but historically she actually scores better internationally, and there are a couple things that make last year's outcome a fluke. First, she happened to have one of her worst days of competition in the qualification round. Second, she got Wieber-ed on her connections on beam. And she's changed her composition this year to address the wonky connections deal, so drop the whole "Aly's beam connections!!! They will be the death of her again!!" deal.
Mykayla actually scored higher on vault in Nanning than she had in the domestic season. So there's that argument blown.
Yes, there are arguments in favor of Gabby's inclusion and legitimate reasons she's on the team. But that doesn't mean everyone has to think the selected team was the best option.
And, to put forward the disclaimer once again, the title is vs. Martha Karolyi because, while it is Gabby's inclusion that I disagree with, it is Martha's selection process that made the decision and that's where my blame lies.
So, this format of this is basically going to be responses to the arguments in favor of Gabby's inclusion, because most of these hold about as much water as a paper bag.
Come on, Gabby's an awesome gymnast!
Yeah, she is. So are the alternates who outperformed her.
And name me another team who wouldn't snap up the opportunity to have Maggie on their team, aside from China who could take her or leave her. Most teams would have the same response to the opportunity for Amelia or Brenna.
So let's not pretend Gabby's spot would have gone to a mediocre athlete and she was the only awesome one in contention for it.
We NEED her bars!!
The short answer to that: No.
The long answer: People really like to exaggerate the US weakness on bars. It's not up to par with their other events, but they keep pace with the majority of the world, and their consistency is good enough that they can outperform better teams who often have to absorb large errors (read: Russia). At the 2014 Worlds, the US had the highest bars total in the team final, and at the 2015 Worlds, the second-highest.
In 2012, Jordyn Wieber went up on bars in the team final, and Simone is easily better than Jordyn was. The back end of Laurie and Maddie is also at least as good as the back end of Kyla and Gabby was in 2012 (I'd be tempted to say- as a huge Kyla Ross fan- definitely better, but the domestic scoring was rather wacky, so we'll see how much that deflates). And yet no one was saying bars would be the undoing of the US in 2012.
But the Amanar has been devalued and the US has fewer Amanars this year, so they have to augment their bars lineup!
The biggest problem here is it's impossible to run a narrative of "the US are the runaway favorites for gold" alongside a "the bars lineup has to squeeze every possible tenth or else everything crumbles" argument. But aside from that, Mykayla would have addressed the whole weaker vault lineup issue. And bars would still have had a stronger lineup than 2012. Not to mention that the US has gotten stronger on beam and floor, too, especially on floor where they are untouchable if they hit.
Martha likes having built-in backup on the team, and if Mykayla was on the team, there would be a hole for backup on bars
So was Aly or McKayla the built-in bars backup in 2012?
Ultimately, no one on this team- and certainly no one outside of Simone- was necessary. Especially the fifth member, regardless of whether it was Gabby or Mykayla or anyone at Trials. The four-person core would have been favorites for gold on their own, no fifth member needed, so the fifth member was just frosting anyway. And Mykayla provides more both from a team total perspective and from an individual success perspective. Gabby's average score on bars in 2016 is .12 higher than Simone's 2016 bars average, and that's including Gabby's 15.65 at Classics. On the other hand, Mykayla's 2016 vault average is .36 higher than Laurie's, and 1)Laurie was overscored at Trials most everywhere and I'd say her vault was also comparatively high at Nationals and 2)Mykayla scored higher on vault at the 2014 Worlds than she did at home. Gabby also doesn't bring any potential for an individual medal that isn't provided just as well by another member on the team. She isn't guaranteed a bars final spot at all, and she would need a lot of help from other gymnasts making mistakes to be able to get a medal there. The only place where she could really get an individual medal is in the AA, and she's been outstripped in the AA at home. Aly and Laurie would both be at least as able to get an AA medal as Gabby. Mykayla, on the other hand, brings the potential for a second vault medal, which she would absolutely be realistically in the running for. Mykayla augments both the team total and the potential medal haul.
Her beam wasn't an important routine for her, so her falls weren't actually that important
One of the biggest arguments in favor of Gabby being on the team, even back at the beginning of the year when I was the only one saying "Hmm, I don't think she really fits this puzzle," was that she could be put up on any event at any time and be expected to put up a good score. Her falls proved she can't. They are also part of the overall progress of her getting worse this year.
She peaks late and will bring her best when she needs to. Remember 2012 and 2015!
Alright, first thing, she'll bring it "when she needs to?" Why exactly isn't the selection process "when she needs to?" To me, "she'll care if she gets a medal out of it" is about the the most unflattering argument you can use for an athlete. It rubbed me the wrong way when it was Aliya at the 2013 Worlds qualification, and I'll always have the same reaction to that argument.
Alright, on to the actual argument. The first major issue is that Gabby's performance this year is nowhere near her 2012 or 2015 performances. In 2012, Gabby was second at Nationals, and tied for first after the first day, and won Trials. So no, you can't use 2012 as a precedent for this year. In 2015, Gabby was definitely more middle-of-the-pack, but this year she's had exactly one beam routine without either a fall or a near-fall, which was absolutely not the case last year. She had more hit beam routines across fewer days of competition. Across Classics and both days of Nationals, there was also only one day where she was out of the top three AA. This year, she's very firmly out of the top three. She's also had issues with her bars this season, not so last year. Not only did Gabby not get in Olympic shape by Trials, she's gotten worse throughout the season. That doesn't fit an upward trajectory argument.
And beyond that, did she really improve all that much between Nationals and Worlds/Olympics in 2012 and 2015? As mentioned above, in 2012 Gabby already was competing at the very top of the pack at the end of the season. Her biggest issue at Trials was a stalled handstand on bars day one. Her 2012 Trials really were pretty much comparable to Laurie's this year. If Laurie were to have the caliber of performances in Rio Gabby did in London, would we be saying anything about her improving so much from Trials? And honestly, was her 2015 Nationals to Worlds improvement really that impressive? She got the AA silver, yes, but if Maggie had gone up on all four in qualifications- which I said last year, and I stand by now, I would have made the same decision Martha did if I were in her position with that team- Gabby likely wouldn't even have made the final, and would only have had fifth place in the bars finals to her name individually. Aside from her wonky night one floor, Gabby's scores were pretty similar at Nationals and at Worlds. She mostly capitalized on decisions that weren't right in hindsight and her teammate's errors. Ultimately, in neither the case of 2012 nor 2015 does the argument that she sees marked improvement internationally from the domestic season have much fact-based evidence to back it up.
Also, nobody else would have gotten anything like this kind of consideration. You know who else would likely really have used that extra month and shown improvement come the Olympics? Maggie. She had an injury that really cut her training time and was basically a competition behind everybody else. She made awesome progress by the time she competed. But for Maggie, not only did she not get the benefit of the doubt because she was behind everyone, but that kept her from getting even an alternate spot. Martha said she wasn't in the picture due to her injury and subsequent recovery, yet those very same reasons gave just as much reason to believe she would have improved during camp.
Nationals and Trials aren't really important to Martha in choosing the team
So what exactly is important to Martha in choosing the team? This Olympics, it looks like Martha made her decision based on 2015. You can't pull out the consistency argument for Gabby, because she didn't show consistency this year. Why didn't she take into account the performances close to the Olympics?
Carly fell twice at Trials in 2004! Brenna was messing up all of last year and got on the team! If you look at the whole picture and not just the most recent meets, Aly was messing up, but everyone had her on the team!
Carly: Was national co-AA champion. Was third AA at Trials even counting two falls. Had potential to be a contributor on all of the other events as well. Gabby was fourth AA at Nationals and seventh AA at Trials with her two falls. She has bars, and otherwise only has potential to outdo Laurie on vault, which Mykayla would have added much more to, and I've already gone into why bringing Mykayla makes more sense for the success of the team. Not to mention Carly also underperformed in the Olympic TF, so are you sure that's the parallel you want to draw?
Brenna: And look how well that turned out. I say this as one who was pulling for Brenna to make the team in May.
Aly: Here are the differences between Aly and Gabby-
1)Aly was one of the most reliable on beam in the country (even if she had errors and didn't get her full D score, she would hit her routine) and had the second-best floor, so she had key routines regardless of her inconsistencies elsewhere. Gabby only had bars, where there were plenty of gymnasts who had usable routines that could score reasonably close to Gabby's and had more to contribute elsewhere, and she was also easily outstripped there by Maddie and Ashton.
2)Aly has gotten better throughout the season, not worse.
No other gymnast would have gotten this response after one bad meet
Gabby didn't have one bad meet. She was lackluster in the entire domestic season. Yes, she was good at American Cup and Jesolo. Why is that more important than Nationals or Trials?
Aly and Mykayla won't score well internationally, and Martha definitely took that into account
Actually, there's not much evidence to support an argument that Aly and Mykayla's execution will be scored harsher than at home, it actually tends to be the opposite.
Aly did experience a notable score drop in Glasgow, but historically she actually scores better internationally, and there are a couple things that make last year's outcome a fluke. First, she happened to have one of her worst days of competition in the qualification round. Second, she got Wieber-ed on her connections on beam. And she's changed her composition this year to address the wonky connections deal, so drop the whole "Aly's beam connections!!! They will be the death of her again!!" deal.
Mykayla actually scored higher on vault in Nanning than she had in the domestic season. So there's that argument blown.
Yes, there are arguments in favor of Gabby's inclusion and legitimate reasons she's on the team. But that doesn't mean everyone has to think the selected team was the best option.
Sunday, July 24, 2016
On the IOC Decision...
I'm just going to put it out there at the beginning of the post that my views aren't necessarily those of the majority of the gymternet on the whole Russia ban debacle.
Personally, I see both sides of the argument.
Against the ban:
It's not fair to punish the clean athletes. There's no evidence that the gymnasts doped, so they should be allowed to compete.
For the ban:
Yes, there's no evidence that the gymnasts doped, but they still haven't undergone legitimate drug testing for two years. Also, this is an institutional problem in Russia, with the Russian government in on the cover-up, so Russia has to be banned entirely to adequately punish those actions.
Personally, I think the IOC decision was too lenient. I agree with the head of the American doping agency when he said the IOC "failed to take decisive leadership". I think the IOC should have taken it upon themselves to determine which sports would be allowed to compete, and my position is that Russia should not be allowed to send athletes from any sport where a doping cover-up was found, at least on a large-scale level- maybe 10+ athletes? Not to mention the whole "federations have 12 days to determine eligibility" mess.
The bigger issue I have with the ruling is that the Russian athletes will still be allowed to compete under the Russian flag. I support Russian athletes who don't show any evidence of doping being allowed to compete, but I think they should be competing under the Olympic flag with Russia not being credited for any of the medals its athletes earn. With its athletes being allowed to compete under the Russian flag, Russia will still be rewarded after being found guilty of systematic abuse of doping testing, when it really is the Russian doping system that needs to be punished. I think allowing Russian athletes to compete but requiring them to compete under the Olympic flag and not the Russian flag would have done a much better job of being fair to the clean athletes while still punishing the Russian system for its corruption.
Personally, I see both sides of the argument.
Against the ban:
It's not fair to punish the clean athletes. There's no evidence that the gymnasts doped, so they should be allowed to compete.
For the ban:
Yes, there's no evidence that the gymnasts doped, but they still haven't undergone legitimate drug testing for two years. Also, this is an institutional problem in Russia, with the Russian government in on the cover-up, so Russia has to be banned entirely to adequately punish those actions.
Personally, I think the IOC decision was too lenient. I agree with the head of the American doping agency when he said the IOC "failed to take decisive leadership". I think the IOC should have taken it upon themselves to determine which sports would be allowed to compete, and my position is that Russia should not be allowed to send athletes from any sport where a doping cover-up was found, at least on a large-scale level- maybe 10+ athletes? Not to mention the whole "federations have 12 days to determine eligibility" mess.
The bigger issue I have with the ruling is that the Russian athletes will still be allowed to compete under the Russian flag. I support Russian athletes who don't show any evidence of doping being allowed to compete, but I think they should be competing under the Olympic flag with Russia not being credited for any of the medals its athletes earn. With its athletes being allowed to compete under the Russian flag, Russia will still be rewarded after being found guilty of systematic abuse of doping testing, when it really is the Russian doping system that needs to be punished. I think allowing Russian athletes to compete but requiring them to compete under the Olympic flag and not the Russian flag would have done a much better job of being fair to the clean athletes while still punishing the Russian system for its corruption.
Monday, July 11, 2016
Based on what is the selection committee actually selectioning?
Well, the whole "My team has stayed the same this entire time" thing actually happened. And I must sound extremely fickle after just Saturday saying I could see the advantages of a team with Gabby, but it left an extremely bad taste in my mouth that she was named.
I do still think she makes sense as a team member. But it bothers me that her inclusion was such a forgone conclusion this whole time. If it seemed that there had been any legitimate debate, that the gymnasts who actually delivered in the Trials process were being given the consideration they deserved, I would have felt more along the lines of "It's not the team I would have picked, and it was definitely a controversial decision with a bunch of options that all had pros and cons, but I get why they did what they did," whereas Gabby's position being unquestionable despite all the errors she's made makes me feel along the lines of, "What a slap in the face to Mykayla, who did precisely what Martha said she wanted to see- hitting everywhere, getting better as the Games get closer- but was shafted, to Maggie, who didn't even get thrown the alternate bone, and even to Ragan, who really gave it her best effort and placed higher than Gabby but didn't stand a chance when the team had already been chosen." Honestly, you know shenanigans are afoot when Tim is saying they're taking so much time to come up with how they're going to rationalize the team. If you're not expecting the ignorant masses who only tune in every four years to get why you put the reigning Olympic AA champ on the team, I think that says more than anything.
Like I said, I do think Gabby makes sense for the team based on Martha's priorities, specifically "Rest Simone on UB and have an AAer". But this Trials process was just kind of shady.
But anyway, this team is still super strong and should do very, very well. The biggest problem now remaining is who the heck is NOT going to do AA in quals. Laurie and Aly have earned it, full stop. But are they really not going to have Gabby do UB in quals? If they put her up, Aly makes the most sense to take out of the lineup in terms of just her ability on that event. And she will have had two Olympics of injustices. As the buzz has been, Laurie is the media-minded choice to remove- and again, enter my accepted conspiracy theory that she was scored generously to make her case for the AA.
Individually, they should rack up quite a haul.
AA: They are definitely favored to have two AA medalists. Simone is, of course, favored, and then whoever the second AAer is will be the favorite for silver.
VT: Favored for the gold
UB: People tend to be way too far to either end of the spectrum here. The US doesn't suck on bars, their lineup will be very strong. But Maddie Kocian is not a near-lock for a medal either. Potential for a medal.
BB: Suddenly beam has gotten a super deep field. There should be two Americans, though Simone's stranglehold on her spot is looking to be slackening. They could leave with two medals or none depending on the day, because beam is beam.
FX: Favored to go 1-2, but this could also potentially have some competition really making a push. Still should be fairly safe if they go clean.
And just for funsies, to prove Nastia at least semi-right, a B team that would be favored to medal:
Mykayla, Ragan, Ashton, Maggie, Amelia
VT: Maggie, Meals, Mykayla
UB: Maggie, Meals, Ashton
BB: Meals, Maggie, Ragan
FX: Maggie, Ragan, Mykayla
Other thoughts on night 2:
I do still think she makes sense as a team member. But it bothers me that her inclusion was such a forgone conclusion this whole time. If it seemed that there had been any legitimate debate, that the gymnasts who actually delivered in the Trials process were being given the consideration they deserved, I would have felt more along the lines of "It's not the team I would have picked, and it was definitely a controversial decision with a bunch of options that all had pros and cons, but I get why they did what they did," whereas Gabby's position being unquestionable despite all the errors she's made makes me feel along the lines of, "What a slap in the face to Mykayla, who did precisely what Martha said she wanted to see- hitting everywhere, getting better as the Games get closer- but was shafted, to Maggie, who didn't even get thrown the alternate bone, and even to Ragan, who really gave it her best effort and placed higher than Gabby but didn't stand a chance when the team had already been chosen." Honestly, you know shenanigans are afoot when Tim is saying they're taking so much time to come up with how they're going to rationalize the team. If you're not expecting the ignorant masses who only tune in every four years to get why you put the reigning Olympic AA champ on the team, I think that says more than anything.
Like I said, I do think Gabby makes sense for the team based on Martha's priorities, specifically "Rest Simone on UB and have an AAer". But this Trials process was just kind of shady.
But anyway, this team is still super strong and should do very, very well. The biggest problem now remaining is who the heck is NOT going to do AA in quals. Laurie and Aly have earned it, full stop. But are they really not going to have Gabby do UB in quals? If they put her up, Aly makes the most sense to take out of the lineup in terms of just her ability on that event. And she will have had two Olympics of injustices. As the buzz has been, Laurie is the media-minded choice to remove- and again, enter my accepted conspiracy theory that she was scored generously to make her case for the AA.
Individually, they should rack up quite a haul.
AA: They are definitely favored to have two AA medalists. Simone is, of course, favored, and then whoever the second AAer is will be the favorite for silver.
VT: Favored for the gold
UB: People tend to be way too far to either end of the spectrum here. The US doesn't suck on bars, their lineup will be very strong. But Maddie Kocian is not a near-lock for a medal either. Potential for a medal.
BB: Suddenly beam has gotten a super deep field. There should be two Americans, though Simone's stranglehold on her spot is looking to be slackening. They could leave with two medals or none depending on the day, because beam is beam.
FX: Favored to go 1-2, but this could also potentially have some competition really making a push. Still should be fairly safe if they go clean.
And just for funsies, to prove Nastia at least semi-right, a B team that would be favored to medal:
Mykayla, Ragan, Ashton, Maggie, Amelia
VT: Maggie, Meals, Mykayla
UB: Maggie, Meals, Ashton
BB: Meals, Maggie, Ragan
FX: Maggie, Ragan, Mykayla
Other thoughts on night 2:
- I LOVE that MLT and Meals designated themselves the universal cheering section
- Scoring actually got somewhat reasonable for the most part, which was a bit surprising (and where Laurie's concerned, again, conspiracy theory)
- NBC was actually helpful in their commentary because I had been wondering which tribe Ashton... is a member of? belongs to? I don't know the PC terminology.
- Mykayla Skinner's floor where she just had a ball was life-giving! Especially that moment after her full-in where she just started mugging!
- Why can't the USAG YouTube channel at least upload the routines that weren't broadcast? Would it really hurt NBC's revenues for me to be able to watch Brenna's hit bars and Meals being the queen of Trials and Christina BEING THERE? (First-world problems, entitlement, throw whatever you got at me, I will still be disappointed that these videos won't exist- maybe some helpful soul will have illegally filmed those routines and will upload them?)
- That moment after the final routine when all the gymnasts were just celebrating their accomplishment was absolutely magical
Saturday, July 9, 2016
...Into the Fire
We are halfway done with the US Trials, and in keeping with the 2012 go round, day 1 looked nervy. Martha is still saying she has the same team in mind she always has... I saw someone else saying why bother with a Trials process and just go ahead and pull a Russia and name the team in February if nothing that happens during that process actually affects anything? Because there should definitely have been some change in outlook during this process. Is this legitimate, or is she just trying to keep drama to a minimum?
The Core
Simone had one of her more "meh" nights. Honestly, I was a bit scared when they showed her Cheng- her block was way off to the side and it looked like her hand was close to missing the table. Hope she fixes that tomorrow, I'm more concerned from a safety standpoint there than anything else. Otherwise, her biggest error was of course beam, where she had the wonky wolf turn. Still held it, which is better than she's done in some bad beam situations domestically before, and what Martha would want were that in the team final. And the dismount!!!! Has it always been that high and floaty or have I just been too wrapped up in myself to notice? (I will love you if you get that reference.) She covered well otherwise, and it overall wasn't her best night, but I'd say it was about on par with her title-winning performance in the Worlds AA last year. She still had no falls and the best routines in the country on two events, so even if she wasn't Simone, her place should have been safe.
Aly had a pretty standard day, which puts her toward the top of the mental game tally. She had errors on vault and beam, but put up some of her best work on bars and killed floor. I think her vault was probably her worst of the domestic season so far, so it would be nice to see that back where it was tomorrow. Her scoring was pretty much what can be expected internationally, and she did precisely what she needed to do to keep herself a lock, which is just keep chugging along.
Laurie, on the other hand, was a bit gifted in scoring. Her vault was definitely not the best DTY of the night... I'd say the other ones that were broadcast were pretty much all better. So on that front... I'll be getting to that later. While she had some hiccups, she definitely acquitted herself well on the grit front- she made it through the rest of her bars routine calmly after her major break, and covered fabulously on her LOSO series on beam. I love the way she pulled a Chellsie Memmel 2006 TF and was all, "What error? No wobble, see!" As for her scoring, I saw a conspiracy theory that actually seems rather plausible... there's been a lot of talk going around about how the business side and marketability might affect who goes up for the AA, and maybe Laurie's scores are being inflated so the results override the commercial issue and she gets to be one of the three AAers.
On the #Mashton front, Martha's basically confirmed that Maddie pretty much sealed the deal last night. She's been more than just throwing but slamming down the gauntlet on bars the last couple go-rounds. She's always had the upper hand because we all know Martha is against true specialists on 5-person teams. The thing Ashton had going for her in the full team picture was the better beam hit record, which was erased last night (and then NBC decided to Hollie Vise it, great). It would take something unforeseen tomorrow to get Maddie off.
The Professor and Mary Ann
All that leaves one spot for the team, and the remaining gymnasts are in a bit of an odd position as they are pretty much all only big standouts on one event, which is in part due to the ridiculous strength of the 4-person core and in part due to the depth on each event.
So, where to make a splash? The preferable routines to replace would be Laurie's vault and Simone's bars, and I also think it would be nice to put someone else up for Laurie's floor, because again, that score is a little fantastical, but that doesn't really seem to be what USAG is going for and it's definitely a lower priority. As for whether vault or bars is more important, I think Simone's across-the-board strength make vault the more important from a score standpoint, but Martha will probably want to rest Simone on bars, so that I think will be higher from a Martha standpoint.
Gabby continues not to bring her best to the table. She had wonky turns on floor and a bunch of weird D-score happenings and a fall on beam, which are slightly less important events for her but still doesn't look very good. People (Martha, specifically) keep pulling the "she peaks later in the season" card, but at what point does that not make up for lackluster performances all season? This point in the process last quad, Gabby was consistently top 2, not outside the top 5. She was on an upward trajectory during the domestic season, and that hasn't been the case this year. And if we're letting gymnasts on the team based on how they might improve in the next month, doesn't it make at least as much sense to give that benefit of the doubt to Maggie since she was injured? But the good news for Gabby is that the preferably replaced spots are on her strong events. I think she had the stronger DTY last night when compared to Laurie, and her bars are good for a TF spot to give Simone a rest.
Maggie is looking good post-injury, but she's still racing the clock in terms of being back in time. She and Gabby had fairly even nights, I think, though Gabby is in the lead by 3 tenths. I disagree with them having the same score on beam, because Maggie had the more solid routine once you take into account their falls but only 1 tenth higher in E, but that's not the event that's going to make or break this puzzle. Her vault also tied with Gabby, with Gabby having a bit tighter form and Maggie having a bit better dynamics. Again, I think she had a stronger vault then Laurie. Her bars were okay, not great, sub-in-for-Simone-able, but there would be a deficit. All we know about her floor is that it was a hit, so without having anything to look at, there's no possible discussion of how realistic her scoring was there and how she compared to others, but we do know she has the fourth-highest floor D score. It's just such a shame that she got injured, because she would 90% likely have made herself a lock for the fifth spot by now otherwise.
I had sympathies for Mykayla in the last spot, and a lot of people who didn't previously have joined me in them after last night as she really made a push for herself and was one of only a few athletes to put out her best stuff. She would bring another 6.0+ vault to both the literal and proverbial table as well as a second vault final spot, though it would definitely be harder for her to medal there this time around than it was in Nanning, even if her Amanar returns, especially if Steingruber brings the front double. But even then, let's not forget she has a nice history of scoring better abroad than at home on vault. Her floor scored about what it did in Nanning last night, and I think it was slightly better executed, so I think she's right about in range with maybe a tenth that could be added. And once again, after wondering what her choreographer was smoking the first time I watched it, I now kinda like her floor. Really, in terms of how well the gymnasts performed, Mykayla should have rocketed herself to Rio, but there remains the issue of Simone having to do bars in TF, and doing AA in QF, TF, AA and then 3 EFs would be quite a load. She has definitely made herself a lock for at least alternate, though. But I just love how after not even making Trials in 2012 she came back and busted her butt and is really gunning for this Olympic team.
As for Ragan... I really just don't think it's in the cards for her this year, which is sad, because she's probably my favorite of the ones who had a legitimate chance. She just doesn't really fit into this puzzle- she's sort of this quad's Sarah Finnegan in as much as she'd most likely be on the team if Aly didn't exist. Beam is just pretty well covered, and floor (which she totally should not have been half a point behind Laurie on... but again, I buy that conspiracy theory) is less important this year than vault and bars. She's not committed to Oklahoma until the 2019-2020 season, so I really hope she doesn't follow Sarah Finnegan's footsteps in dropping down to level 10 and not continuing elite, because I think she could totally have success next quad.
So, who for that final spot?
VT: I think all 3 still in the running should be able to outscore Laurie here
UB: Mykayla's not usable. Maggie is sub-in-able while not necessary to put up in quals, making that picture much easier. Gabby is definitely the best here of the 3.
FX: Laurie would outscore Gabby. Maggie and Mykayla I think could both go either way in a scoring battle with Laurie.
Ironically enough, because I was saying I didn't think Gabby fit the whole time coming into Trials, while everybody else is less pro-Gabby after last night, I'm actually more pro-Gabby. I think she could very well outscore Laurie on vault and fits in the bars picture, making her the easiest to slot in on the money events. The problem then becomes UB in quals, which would get messy. She could potentially make the EF, but under all likely circumstances wouldn't medal, and then Simone, Aly, or Laurie couldn't do AA, or Maddie couldn't qualify to the EF, which would be rather pointless, and she has a much more legitimate chance at a medal than Gabby.
Mykayla compliments Maddie well, making quals easy, and would really add to the vault lineup, but then Simone would have to do all 4 in the TF, which, in addition to all the individual finals, would be quite a load.
Maggie would also be a good compliment to Maddie in quals, and could definitely be subbed in for bars in the TF, addressing both problems. I think she should also be able to outscore Laurie on vault and has potential on floor, making her good as a team player spot. In terms of the gymnast who fits the puzzle the best, I still think Maggie takes that role, but her lack of a standout event drags her down.
Gabby slots in the most easily, Mykayla brings a good scoring advantage as well as making the quals puzzle simpler, and Maggie is the most versatile. At this point, I'd still prefer Mykayla or Maggie in the fifth spot, but I can see the advantages of all the potential teams.
Miscellaneous
The Core
Simone had one of her more "meh" nights. Honestly, I was a bit scared when they showed her Cheng- her block was way off to the side and it looked like her hand was close to missing the table. Hope she fixes that tomorrow, I'm more concerned from a safety standpoint there than anything else. Otherwise, her biggest error was of course beam, where she had the wonky wolf turn. Still held it, which is better than she's done in some bad beam situations domestically before, and what Martha would want were that in the team final. And the dismount!!!! Has it always been that high and floaty or have I just been too wrapped up in myself to notice? (I will love you if you get that reference.) She covered well otherwise, and it overall wasn't her best night, but I'd say it was about on par with her title-winning performance in the Worlds AA last year. She still had no falls and the best routines in the country on two events, so even if she wasn't Simone, her place should have been safe.
Aly had a pretty standard day, which puts her toward the top of the mental game tally. She had errors on vault and beam, but put up some of her best work on bars and killed floor. I think her vault was probably her worst of the domestic season so far, so it would be nice to see that back where it was tomorrow. Her scoring was pretty much what can be expected internationally, and she did precisely what she needed to do to keep herself a lock, which is just keep chugging along.
Laurie, on the other hand, was a bit gifted in scoring. Her vault was definitely not the best DTY of the night... I'd say the other ones that were broadcast were pretty much all better. So on that front... I'll be getting to that later. While she had some hiccups, she definitely acquitted herself well on the grit front- she made it through the rest of her bars routine calmly after her major break, and covered fabulously on her LOSO series on beam. I love the way she pulled a Chellsie Memmel 2006 TF and was all, "What error? No wobble, see!" As for her scoring, I saw a conspiracy theory that actually seems rather plausible... there's been a lot of talk going around about how the business side and marketability might affect who goes up for the AA, and maybe Laurie's scores are being inflated so the results override the commercial issue and she gets to be one of the three AAers.
On the #Mashton front, Martha's basically confirmed that Maddie pretty much sealed the deal last night. She's been more than just throwing but slamming down the gauntlet on bars the last couple go-rounds. She's always had the upper hand because we all know Martha is against true specialists on 5-person teams. The thing Ashton had going for her in the full team picture was the better beam hit record, which was erased last night (and then NBC decided to Hollie Vise it, great). It would take something unforeseen tomorrow to get Maddie off.
The Professor and Mary Ann
All that leaves one spot for the team, and the remaining gymnasts are in a bit of an odd position as they are pretty much all only big standouts on one event, which is in part due to the ridiculous strength of the 4-person core and in part due to the depth on each event.
So, where to make a splash? The preferable routines to replace would be Laurie's vault and Simone's bars, and I also think it would be nice to put someone else up for Laurie's floor, because again, that score is a little fantastical, but that doesn't really seem to be what USAG is going for and it's definitely a lower priority. As for whether vault or bars is more important, I think Simone's across-the-board strength make vault the more important from a score standpoint, but Martha will probably want to rest Simone on bars, so that I think will be higher from a Martha standpoint.
Gabby continues not to bring her best to the table. She had wonky turns on floor and a bunch of weird D-score happenings and a fall on beam, which are slightly less important events for her but still doesn't look very good. People (Martha, specifically) keep pulling the "she peaks later in the season" card, but at what point does that not make up for lackluster performances all season? This point in the process last quad, Gabby was consistently top 2, not outside the top 5. She was on an upward trajectory during the domestic season, and that hasn't been the case this year. And if we're letting gymnasts on the team based on how they might improve in the next month, doesn't it make at least as much sense to give that benefit of the doubt to Maggie since she was injured? But the good news for Gabby is that the preferably replaced spots are on her strong events. I think she had the stronger DTY last night when compared to Laurie, and her bars are good for a TF spot to give Simone a rest.
Maggie is looking good post-injury, but she's still racing the clock in terms of being back in time. She and Gabby had fairly even nights, I think, though Gabby is in the lead by 3 tenths. I disagree with them having the same score on beam, because Maggie had the more solid routine once you take into account their falls but only 1 tenth higher in E, but that's not the event that's going to make or break this puzzle. Her vault also tied with Gabby, with Gabby having a bit tighter form and Maggie having a bit better dynamics. Again, I think she had a stronger vault then Laurie. Her bars were okay, not great, sub-in-for-Simone-able, but there would be a deficit. All we know about her floor is that it was a hit, so without having anything to look at, there's no possible discussion of how realistic her scoring was there and how she compared to others, but we do know she has the fourth-highest floor D score. It's just such a shame that she got injured, because she would 90% likely have made herself a lock for the fifth spot by now otherwise.
I had sympathies for Mykayla in the last spot, and a lot of people who didn't previously have joined me in them after last night as she really made a push for herself and was one of only a few athletes to put out her best stuff. She would bring another 6.0+ vault to both the literal and proverbial table as well as a second vault final spot, though it would definitely be harder for her to medal there this time around than it was in Nanning, even if her Amanar returns, especially if Steingruber brings the front double. But even then, let's not forget she has a nice history of scoring better abroad than at home on vault. Her floor scored about what it did in Nanning last night, and I think it was slightly better executed, so I think she's right about in range with maybe a tenth that could be added. And once again, after wondering what her choreographer was smoking the first time I watched it, I now kinda like her floor. Really, in terms of how well the gymnasts performed, Mykayla should have rocketed herself to Rio, but there remains the issue of Simone having to do bars in TF, and doing AA in QF, TF, AA and then 3 EFs would be quite a load. She has definitely made herself a lock for at least alternate, though. But I just love how after not even making Trials in 2012 she came back and busted her butt and is really gunning for this Olympic team.
As for Ragan... I really just don't think it's in the cards for her this year, which is sad, because she's probably my favorite of the ones who had a legitimate chance. She just doesn't really fit into this puzzle- she's sort of this quad's Sarah Finnegan in as much as she'd most likely be on the team if Aly didn't exist. Beam is just pretty well covered, and floor (which she totally should not have been half a point behind Laurie on... but again, I buy that conspiracy theory) is less important this year than vault and bars. She's not committed to Oklahoma until the 2019-2020 season, so I really hope she doesn't follow Sarah Finnegan's footsteps in dropping down to level 10 and not continuing elite, because I think she could totally have success next quad.
So, who for that final spot?
VT: I think all 3 still in the running should be able to outscore Laurie here
UB: Mykayla's not usable. Maggie is sub-in-able while not necessary to put up in quals, making that picture much easier. Gabby is definitely the best here of the 3.
FX: Laurie would outscore Gabby. Maggie and Mykayla I think could both go either way in a scoring battle with Laurie.
Ironically enough, because I was saying I didn't think Gabby fit the whole time coming into Trials, while everybody else is less pro-Gabby after last night, I'm actually more pro-Gabby. I think she could very well outscore Laurie on vault and fits in the bars picture, making her the easiest to slot in on the money events. The problem then becomes UB in quals, which would get messy. She could potentially make the EF, but under all likely circumstances wouldn't medal, and then Simone, Aly, or Laurie couldn't do AA, or Maddie couldn't qualify to the EF, which would be rather pointless, and she has a much more legitimate chance at a medal than Gabby.
Mykayla compliments Maddie well, making quals easy, and would really add to the vault lineup, but then Simone would have to do all 4 in the TF, which, in addition to all the individual finals, would be quite a load.
Maggie would also be a good compliment to Maddie in quals, and could definitely be subbed in for bars in the TF, addressing both problems. I think she should also be able to outscore Laurie on vault and has potential on floor, making her good as a team player spot. In terms of the gymnast who fits the puzzle the best, I still think Maggie takes that role, but her lack of a standout event drags her down.
Gabby slots in the most easily, Mykayla brings a good scoring advantage as well as making the quals puzzle simpler, and Maggie is the most versatile. At this point, I'd still prefer Mykayla or Maggie in the fifth spot, but I can see the advantages of all the potential teams.
Miscellaneous
- Brenna hit bars and THERE IS NO WAY TO SEE IT
- I am just in general feeling twitchy at the lack of videos of every routine I've come to expect from US domestic meets. I hate NBC!
- On the subject of hating NBC, AL CALLED SIMONE GABBY. Can that please do him in?
- I'm so happy Meals is hitting! Can she please be an alternate? Pretty please? Another most any other team would love.
- Christina is competing and was in the background of the broadcast a ton so I got to see her even if none of her routines were shown and she's beating Gowey and Schild in the AA and she's hitting!!!
- MLT just casually popping up all the time. (Even though they never show Meals. Which they should.)
- I loved everyone asking other gymnasts "Could you hear me?" when they were done with their routines
- To quote my sister, "They have a ton of weird floor music this year." I'm not particularly happy with the turn US floor routines have taken this year, they seem either to have no focus with a few crowd-pandering moves thrown in or are just old choreography thrown together.
Thursday, July 7, 2016
'Twas the night before Trials
13 videos of the 7 chosen gymnasts from whom the team will 95% likely be formed were uploaded today, providing a little discussion fodder on the eve before the 2016 Hunger Games- ahem, US Olympic Team Trials Women's Gymnastics.
Simone was not shown on vault or floor, weirdly enough, only on bars and beam. Simone is Simone is Simone, she hit and was super crisp and looks totally ready. There was not a single wobble on her beam, but I'm still wary of that Barani. Her dismount was SO FLOATY!! But anyway, she's Simone and performed in typical Simone fashion, next.
So, Aly. I love the way she landed that front pike super low and then just went "wolf jump, there, what landing issue?" You can also tell she has really put in the numbers on that layout to get it to a real stretched position. At this point, I honestly don't get why it's being downgraded- heck, even at P&Gs she had to submit an inquiry for it to be recognized! Seriously, it's a layout. Her form is Aly form, but that's not the realm of the D-score. What is the reason for downgrading? But still, no controversy where she's concerned, she's a lock, next.
Laurie looked as good as she has all year on vault. It would still be optimal for her not to be used there in the team final, though, so I think that really is going to be an important event for other battles to make the team. Her beam looked absolutely gorgeous, once again. She has downgraded her dismount from a BHS+BHS combo to just a round off into her double pike, potentially giving Aly a bit more stock in the second-beamer race. And she rounds off the locks. So to the races for the other two spots.
#Mashton
From the looks of things, this race is exactly the same as it has been the whole time. Maddie's got the difficulty edge, Ashton out-executes her, and Madison does all four events while Ashton eschews vault and floor. In who-brings-the-bigger-bars-score terms, Ashton gets the spot. In what-Martha-likes terms, Madison gets the spot because she does all four events. And we all know the latter terms are stronger than the former. I would be shocked if a true specialist is named. Leaving us with...
Gabby vs. Maggie
I was in favor of Maggie over Gabby back in January, and then only picked Gabby in May when I went with an entirely different team structure which has now fallen through. So post-P&Gs, I've been consistently pro-Maggie, and that's become an increasingly popular mindset. Here's the logic: Gabby is only consistently in contributing range on bars, so it makes more sense to bring Maggie who can contribute on multiple events. This is the battle where I think vault will really come into play, as I was referring to with Laurie up there. Which is where things could get interesting, and where we might actually have gotten some insight from the videos. Both gymnasts have been making noises all year about bringing out an Amanar, and Maggie only displayed a DTY in podium training. Unless she pulls a move like Aly at Classics last year, it looks like she's not going to get an Amanar nod. If I were the one picking the team, this would be my position: if Gabby does an Amanar, she goes regardless of Maggie's vault; if Gabby doesn't do an Amanar and Maggie does, Maggie goes; if neither Gabby nor Maggie does an Amanar, battle with advantage Maggie. I do think that even with just a DTY, she could very well outscore Gabby and Laurie on vault, and if she has floor back in fighting shape, she should outscore Laurie on floor, still giving her two events with potential for the lead off bars spot if they don't want to put Simone there. However, if I really use Martha-logic, I do think Gabby has the Martha advantage because... she just seems to.
Honestly, at this point, I've got a fair bit of sympathy for Mykayla in the last spot. Her floor scores have been the same as Laurie's, but I think that's a bit of a case of Laurie getting a boost. Mykayla does have a bit an interesting tendency to score at least as well internationally while her teammates experience a slight drop. She also is, of course, the US's only other hope for a vault medal, and would neatly finish off the vault lineup. The only real downside is her inclusion would mean Simone would have to do bars in the team final, which is not Martha's preference.
I do think Martha's team is most likely going to be Simone, Aly, Laurie, Maddie, and Gabby, even if it's not one I think is the best option. But then again, we all thought we knew what she was going to do last year, and then she went and named Brenna to the team. So who can really say?
Friday, July 1, 2016
So, is Svetlana Khorkina available?
Wait- countries other than the US exist? What?
So yeah, this blog has been a bit America-centric in the last few weeks, but the Russian Cup has come along and provided plenty of fodder for discussion. Mostly in the form of ranting, heavy sighs, and aggressive "UGGGHHH"s.
If you were hoping the Russians in Penza were going to display better preparation as we drew closer to the Olympics, sorry, because about the exact opposite happened. Awesome. Great. Who needs consistency, really? It's just a hallmark of dirty American gymnastics anyway.
Bars meltdowns were the big trend of day 1, which is worrying since that is supposed to be the event where Russia can get their big scores, and they're kind of depending on it to make up for where they lack on other events. They had 4 14+ routines, two of which came from Kapitonova, who fell, and Skrypnik, who we all know are never getting selected, one from Melnikova, who also fell, and the other from Spiridonova. And while Spiridonova is in genuine contention, she is dead weight everywhere else when Russia is looking to plug holes, and she even had her own issues with a .5 late pirouette. Paseka is back on vault despite some scares she might still be in traction or whatever was supposed to be going on with her, but only reached 13.25 on bars, where she is also supposed to be able to contribute, especially now with Vika out.
Angelina grabbed the beam and fell on her double pike dismount day 1, which was definitely worrying since who are we supposed to be able to put on beam if Melka starts breaking down? She pulled it together for a hit, if tentative, routine day 2 which made everyone let out an extremely tensely held breath, and so we carry on. She actually pulled everything together day 2, improving on bars as well for another hit and keeping pace on vault and floor. I won't be surprised if she is used on all four in the team final. But it does definitely make a contrast to the American nationals where pretty much everyone had their issues but only two who have at all legitimate shots actually fell, and then on routines where they're not needed.
Seda is actually pulling out about her best work yet, which is lovely to see and not exactly universal. Definitely reminds me of how she seemed to be the only Russian who actually cared about their performance at the end of the team final last year. The Rods seem to put her on teams even when her work makes her inclusion arguable, so I'd not be at all surprised to see her on the Olympic team, especially with so many being sidelined. She has been one of the top on beam in Penza, which I find more than just mildly amusing. But I think that amusement is outweighed by depression. Don't forget that she is at the top with a semi-crashed dismount day 1.
Aliya has fallen thrice on bars across the two days. That is about the last thing Russia needed or expected. One day can be a fluke off day, two days is concerning. She is back to the AA now, which is definitely a weight of Russia's collective shoulders, but man. She's still struggling to get an acro series in. Why doesn't she just have a BHS+BHS series at this point to make sure she gets it?
Afan and Kharenkova are both out with injury right now, to top everything off. Kharenkova was not the expected team member in the way Afan is, but she had the preferable hit record compared to Tutkhalyan, and with Vika out, Russia is in the throes of a HOW DO WE PUT TOGETHER A BEAM LINEUP??? crisis. (Side note: how much do you think Russia would love to have Ragan Smith right now?)
Afan's situation I think sums up the why Russia is in such a relative shambles. She got injured before Euros, and yet, instead of replace her with Kapitonova, she was still put up in competition. The reasoning? They would have had to rely on an FTY otherwise. And now she's spending the lead up to the Olympics in Germany getting surgery. The Rods never see beyond what's right under their nose. Not having three DTYs meant Russia might not win Euros, so she had to be kept, never mind that it might put her ability to compete in Rio at risk. It's the same thing they've been doing all quad. Remember when they had an Olympic-worthy Universiade team and then were scrambling to find three gymnasts they could send to Worlds? How about the number of minor competitions they've sent Aliya to instead of having her rest only for her to be weakened come the major season? They consistently put success at whatever competition they're at RIGHT NOW above success later in the season.
Alright, so the Olympic picture. Melnikova's in. Aliya's in, no matter what happened in Penza. The other two spots are between Paseka, Spiridonova, Afan, and Tutkhalyan. Honestly, to me, at this point, it makes sense just to take the team that has the most potential for individual success, which this group could still have a fair share of. The three picks for that would obviously be Paseka, Spiridonova, and Afan if she gets back. The problem there is either Spiridonova will have to go up on beam or Afan will have to get beam back, which is a lot to ask in her recovery. Tutkhalyan is preferable to Spiridonova for beam, but it's still kind of worrying that she's a lineup savior there.
So yeah, this blog has been a bit America-centric in the last few weeks, but the Russian Cup has come along and provided plenty of fodder for discussion. Mostly in the form of ranting, heavy sighs, and aggressive "UGGGHHH"s.
If you were hoping the Russians in Penza were going to display better preparation as we drew closer to the Olympics, sorry, because about the exact opposite happened. Awesome. Great. Who needs consistency, really? It's just a hallmark of dirty American gymnastics anyway.
Bars meltdowns were the big trend of day 1, which is worrying since that is supposed to be the event where Russia can get their big scores, and they're kind of depending on it to make up for where they lack on other events. They had 4 14+ routines, two of which came from Kapitonova, who fell, and Skrypnik, who we all know are never getting selected, one from Melnikova, who also fell, and the other from Spiridonova. And while Spiridonova is in genuine contention, she is dead weight everywhere else when Russia is looking to plug holes, and she even had her own issues with a .5 late pirouette. Paseka is back on vault despite some scares she might still be in traction or whatever was supposed to be going on with her, but only reached 13.25 on bars, where she is also supposed to be able to contribute, especially now with Vika out.
Angelina grabbed the beam and fell on her double pike dismount day 1, which was definitely worrying since who are we supposed to be able to put on beam if Melka starts breaking down? She pulled it together for a hit, if tentative, routine day 2 which made everyone let out an extremely tensely held breath, and so we carry on. She actually pulled everything together day 2, improving on bars as well for another hit and keeping pace on vault and floor. I won't be surprised if she is used on all four in the team final. But it does definitely make a contrast to the American nationals where pretty much everyone had their issues but only two who have at all legitimate shots actually fell, and then on routines where they're not needed.
Seda is actually pulling out about her best work yet, which is lovely to see and not exactly universal. Definitely reminds me of how she seemed to be the only Russian who actually cared about their performance at the end of the team final last year. The Rods seem to put her on teams even when her work makes her inclusion arguable, so I'd not be at all surprised to see her on the Olympic team, especially with so many being sidelined. She has been one of the top on beam in Penza, which I find more than just mildly amusing. But I think that amusement is outweighed by depression. Don't forget that she is at the top with a semi-crashed dismount day 1.
Aliya has fallen thrice on bars across the two days. That is about the last thing Russia needed or expected. One day can be a fluke off day, two days is concerning. She is back to the AA now, which is definitely a weight of Russia's collective shoulders, but man. She's still struggling to get an acro series in. Why doesn't she just have a BHS+BHS series at this point to make sure she gets it?
Afan and Kharenkova are both out with injury right now, to top everything off. Kharenkova was not the expected team member in the way Afan is, but she had the preferable hit record compared to Tutkhalyan, and with Vika out, Russia is in the throes of a HOW DO WE PUT TOGETHER A BEAM LINEUP??? crisis. (Side note: how much do you think Russia would love to have Ragan Smith right now?)
Afan's situation I think sums up the why Russia is in such a relative shambles. She got injured before Euros, and yet, instead of replace her with Kapitonova, she was still put up in competition. The reasoning? They would have had to rely on an FTY otherwise. And now she's spending the lead up to the Olympics in Germany getting surgery. The Rods never see beyond what's right under their nose. Not having three DTYs meant Russia might not win Euros, so she had to be kept, never mind that it might put her ability to compete in Rio at risk. It's the same thing they've been doing all quad. Remember when they had an Olympic-worthy Universiade team and then were scrambling to find three gymnasts they could send to Worlds? How about the number of minor competitions they've sent Aliya to instead of having her rest only for her to be weakened come the major season? They consistently put success at whatever competition they're at RIGHT NOW above success later in the season.
Alright, so the Olympic picture. Melnikova's in. Aliya's in, no matter what happened in Penza. The other two spots are between Paseka, Spiridonova, Afan, and Tutkhalyan. Honestly, to me, at this point, it makes sense just to take the team that has the most potential for individual success, which this group could still have a fair share of. The three picks for that would obviously be Paseka, Spiridonova, and Afan if she gets back. The problem there is either Spiridonova will have to go up on beam or Afan will have to get beam back, which is a lot to ask in her recovery. Tutkhalyan is preferable to Spiridonova for beam, but it's still kind of worrying that she's a lineup savior there.
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