...Into the Fire

We are halfway done with the US Trials, and in keeping with the 2012 go round, day 1 looked nervy. Martha is still saying she has the same team in mind she always has... I saw someone else saying why bother with a Trials process and just go ahead and pull a Russia and name the team in February if nothing that happens during that process actually affects anything? Because there should definitely have been some change in outlook during this process. Is this legitimate, or is she just trying to keep drama to a minimum?

The Core
Simone had one of her more "meh" nights. Honestly, I was a bit scared when they showed her Cheng- her block was way off to the side and it looked like her hand was close to missing the table. Hope she fixes that tomorrow, I'm more concerned from a safety standpoint there than anything else. Otherwise, her biggest error was of course beam, where she had the wonky wolf turn. Still held it, which is better than she's done in some bad beam situations domestically before, and what Martha would want were that in the team final. And the dismount!!!! Has it always been that high and floaty or have I just been too wrapped up in myself to notice? (I will love you if you get that reference.) She covered well otherwise, and it overall wasn't her best night, but I'd say it was about on par with her title-winning performance in the Worlds AA last year. She still had no falls and the best routines in the country on two events, so even if she wasn't Simone, her place should have been safe.

Aly had a pretty standard day, which puts her toward the top of the mental game tally. She had errors on vault and beam, but put up some of her best work on bars and killed floor. I think her vault was probably her worst of the domestic season so far, so it would be nice to see that back where it was tomorrow. Her scoring was pretty much what can be expected internationally, and she did precisely what she needed to do to keep herself a lock, which is just keep chugging along.

Laurie, on the other hand, was a bit gifted in scoring. Her vault was definitely not the best DTY of the night... I'd say the other ones that were broadcast were pretty much all better. So on that front... I'll be getting to that later. While she had some hiccups, she definitely acquitted herself well on the grit front- she made it through the rest of her bars routine calmly after her major break, and covered fabulously on her LOSO series on beam. I love the way she pulled a Chellsie Memmel 2006 TF and was all, "What error? No wobble, see!" As for her scoring, I saw a conspiracy theory that actually seems rather plausible... there's been a lot of talk going around about how the business side and marketability might affect who goes up for the AA, and maybe Laurie's scores are being inflated so the results override the commercial issue and she gets to be one of the three AAers.

On the #Mashton front, Martha's basically confirmed that Maddie pretty much sealed the deal last night. She's been more than just throwing but slamming down the gauntlet on bars the last couple go-rounds. She's always had the upper hand because we all know Martha is against true specialists on 5-person teams. The thing Ashton had going for her in the full team picture was the better beam hit record, which was erased last night (and then NBC decided to Hollie Vise it, great). It would take something unforeseen tomorrow to get Maddie off.

The Professor and Mary Ann
All that leaves one spot for the team, and the remaining gymnasts are in a bit of an odd position as they are pretty much all only big standouts on one event, which is in part due to the ridiculous strength of the 4-person core and in part due to the depth on each event.

So, where to make a splash? The preferable routines to replace would be Laurie's vault and Simone's bars, and I also think it would be nice to put someone else up for Laurie's floor, because again, that score is a little fantastical, but that doesn't really seem to be what USAG is going for and it's definitely a lower priority. As for whether vault or bars is more important, I think Simone's across-the-board strength make vault the more important from a score standpoint, but Martha will probably want to rest Simone on bars, so that I think will be higher from a Martha standpoint.

Gabby continues not to bring her best to the table. She had wonky turns on floor and a bunch of weird D-score happenings and a fall on beam, which are slightly less important events for her but still doesn't look very good. People (Martha, specifically) keep pulling the "she peaks later in the season" card, but at what point does that not make up for lackluster performances all season? This point in the process last quad, Gabby was consistently top 2, not outside the top 5. She was on an upward trajectory during the domestic season, and that hasn't been the case this year. And if we're letting gymnasts on the team based on how they might improve in the next month, doesn't it make at least as much sense to give that benefit of the doubt to Maggie since she was injured? But the good news for Gabby is that the preferably replaced spots are on her strong events. I think she had the stronger DTY last night when compared to Laurie, and her bars are good for a TF spot to give Simone a rest.

Maggie is looking good post-injury, but she's still racing the clock in terms of being back in time. She and Gabby had fairly even nights, I think, though Gabby is in the lead by 3 tenths. I disagree with them having the same score on beam, because Maggie had the more solid routine once you take into account their falls but only 1 tenth higher in E, but that's not the event that's going to make or break this puzzle. Her vault also tied with Gabby, with Gabby having a bit tighter form and Maggie having a bit better dynamics. Again, I think she had a stronger vault then Laurie. Her bars were okay, not great, sub-in-for-Simone-able, but there would be a deficit. All we know about her floor is that it was a hit, so without having anything to look at, there's no possible discussion of how realistic her scoring was there and how she compared to others, but we do know she has the fourth-highest floor D score. It's just such a shame that she got injured, because she would 90% likely have made herself a lock for the fifth spot by now otherwise.

I had sympathies for Mykayla in the last spot, and a lot of people who didn't previously have joined me in them after last night as she really made a push for herself and was one of only a few athletes to put out her best stuff. She would bring another 6.0+ vault to both the literal and proverbial table as well as a second vault final spot, though it would definitely be harder for her to medal there this time around than it was in Nanning, even if her Amanar returns, especially if Steingruber brings the front double. But even then, let's not forget she has a nice history of scoring better abroad than at home on vault. Her floor scored about what it did in Nanning last night, and I think it was slightly better executed, so I think she's right about in range with maybe a tenth that could be added. And once again, after wondering what her choreographer was smoking the first time I watched it, I now kinda like her floor. Really, in terms of how well the gymnasts performed, Mykayla should have rocketed herself to Rio, but there remains the issue of Simone having to do bars in TF, and doing AA in QF, TF, AA and then 3 EFs would be quite a load. She has definitely made herself a lock for at least alternate, though. But I just love how after not even making Trials in 2012 she came back and busted her butt and is really gunning for this Olympic team.

As for Ragan... I really just don't think it's in the cards for her this year, which is sad, because she's probably my favorite of the ones who had a legitimate chance. She just doesn't really fit into this puzzle- she's sort of this quad's Sarah Finnegan in as much as she'd most likely be on the team if Aly didn't exist. Beam is just pretty well covered, and floor (which she totally should not have been half a point behind Laurie on... but again, I buy that conspiracy theory) is less important this year than vault and bars. She's not committed to Oklahoma until the 2019-2020 season, so I really hope she doesn't follow Sarah Finnegan's footsteps in dropping down to level 10 and not continuing elite, because I think she could totally have success next quad.

So, who for that final spot?
VT: I think all 3 still in the running should be able to outscore Laurie here
UB: Mykayla's not usable. Maggie is sub-in-able while not necessary to put up in quals, making that picture much easier. Gabby is definitely the best here of the 3.
FX: Laurie would outscore Gabby. Maggie and Mykayla I think could both go either way in a scoring battle with Laurie.

Ironically enough, because I was saying I didn't think Gabby fit the whole time coming into Trials, while everybody else is less pro-Gabby after last night, I'm actually more pro-Gabby. I think she could very well outscore Laurie on vault and fits in the bars picture, making her the easiest to slot in on the money events. The problem then becomes UB in quals, which would get messy. She could potentially make the EF, but under all likely circumstances wouldn't medal, and then Simone, Aly, or Laurie couldn't do AA, or Maddie couldn't qualify to the EF, which would be rather pointless, and she has a much more legitimate chance at a medal than Gabby.

Mykayla compliments Maddie well, making quals easy, and would really add to the vault lineup, but then Simone would have to do all 4 in the TF, which, in addition to all the individual finals, would be quite a load.

Maggie would also be a good compliment to Maddie in quals, and could definitely be subbed in for bars in the TF, addressing both problems. I think she should also be able to outscore Laurie on vault and has potential on floor, making her good as a team player spot. In terms of the gymnast who fits the puzzle the best, I still think Maggie takes that role, but her lack of a standout event drags her down.

Gabby slots in the most easily, Mykayla brings a good scoring advantage as well as making the quals puzzle simpler, and Maggie is the most versatile. At this point, I'd still prefer Mykayla or Maggie in the fifth spot, but I can see the advantages of all the potential teams.


Miscellaneous

• Brenna hit bars and THERE IS NO WAY TO SEE IT
• I am just in general feeling twitchy at the lack of videos of every routine I've come to expect from US domestic meets. I hate NBC!
• On the subject of hating NBC, AL CALLED SIMONE GABBY. Can that please do him in?
• I'm so happy Meals is hitting! Can she please be an alternate? Pretty please? Another most any other team would love.
• Christina is competing and was in the background of the broadcast a ton so I got to see her even if none of her routines were shown and she's beating Gowey and Schild in the AA and she's hitting!!!
• MLT just casually popping up all the time. (Even though they never show Meals. Which they should.)
• I loved everyone asking other gymnasts "Could you hear me?" when they were done with their routines
• To quote my sister, "They have a ton of weird floor music this year." I'm not particularly happy with the turn US floor routines have taken this year, they seem either to have no focus with a few crowd-pandering moves thrown in or are just old choreography thrown together.

'Twas the night before Trials

13 videos of the 7 chosen gymnasts from whom the team will 95% likely be formed were uploaded today, providing a little discussion fodder on the eve before the 2016 Hunger Games- ahem, US Olympic Team Trials Women's Gymnastics.

Simone was not shown on vault or floor, weirdly enough, only on bars and beam. Simone is Simone is Simone, she hit and was super crisp and looks totally ready. There was not a single wobble on her beam, but I'm still wary of that Barani. Her dismount was SO FLOATY!! But anyway, she's Simone and performed in typical Simone fashion, next.

So, Aly. I love the way she landed that front pike super low and then just went "wolf jump, there, what landing issue?" You can also tell she has really put in the numbers on that layout to get it to a real stretched position. At this point, I honestly don't get why it's being downgraded- heck, even at P&Gs she had to submit an inquiry for it to be recognized! Seriously, it's a layout. Her form is Aly form, but that's not the realm of the D-score. What is the reason for downgrading? But still, no controversy where she's concerned, she's a lock, next.

Laurie looked as good as she has all year on vault. It would still be optimal for her not to be used there in the team final, though, so I think that really is going to be an important event for other battles to make the team. Her beam looked absolutely gorgeous, once again. She has downgraded her dismount from a BHS+BHS combo to just a round off into her double pike, potentially giving Aly a bit more stock in the second-beamer race. And she rounds off the locks. So to the races for the other two spots.

#Mashton

From the looks of things, this race is exactly the same as it has been the whole time. Maddie's got the difficulty edge, Ashton out-executes her, and Madison does all four events while Ashton eschews vault and floor. In who-brings-the-bigger-bars-score terms, Ashton gets the spot. In what-Martha-likes terms, Madison gets the spot because she does all four events. And we all know the latter terms are stronger than the former. I would be shocked if a true specialist is named. Leaving us with...

Gabby vs. Maggie

I was in favor of Maggie over Gabby back in January, and then only picked Gabby in May when I went with an entirely different team structure which has now fallen through. So post-P&Gs, I've been consistently pro-Maggie, and that's become an increasingly popular mindset. Here's the logic: Gabby is only consistently in contributing range on bars, so it makes more sense to bring Maggie who can contribute on multiple events. This is the battle where I think vault will really come into play, as I was referring to with Laurie up there. Which is where things could get interesting, and where we might actually have gotten some insight from the videos. Both gymnasts have been making noises all year about bringing out an Amanar, and Maggie only displayed a DTY in podium training. Unless she pulls a move like Aly at Classics last year, it looks like she's not going to get an Amanar nod. If I were the one picking the team, this would be my position: if Gabby does an Amanar, she goes regardless of Maggie's vault; if Gabby doesn't do an Amanar and Maggie does, Maggie goes; if neither Gabby nor Maggie does an Amanar, battle with advantage Maggie. I do think that even with just a DTY, she could very well outscore Gabby and Laurie on vault, and if she has floor back in fighting shape, she should outscore Laurie on floor, still giving her two events with potential for the lead off bars spot if they don't want to put Simone there. However, if I really use Martha-logic, I do think Gabby has the Martha advantage because... she just seems to.

Honestly, at this point, I've got a fair bit of sympathy for Mykayla in the last spot. Her floor scores have been the same as Laurie's, but I think that's a bit of a case of Laurie getting a boost. Mykayla does have a bit an interesting tendency to score at least as well internationally while her teammates experience a slight drop. She also is, of course, the US's only other hope for a vault medal, and would neatly finish off the vault lineup. The only real downside is her inclusion would mean Simone would have to do bars in the team final, which is not Martha's preference.

I do think Martha's team is most likely going to be Simone, Aly, Laurie, Maddie, and Gabby, even if it's not one I think is the best option. But then again, we all thought we knew what she was going to do last year, and then she went and named Brenna to the team. So who can really say?

So, is Svetlana Khorkina available?

Wait- countries other than the US exist? What?

So yeah, this blog has been a bit America-centric in the last few weeks, but the Russian Cup has come along and provided plenty of fodder for discussion. Mostly in the form of ranting, heavy sighs, and aggressive "UGGGHHH"s.

If you were hoping the Russians in Penza were going to display better preparation as we drew closer to the Olympics, sorry, because about the exact opposite happened. Awesome. Great. Who needs consistency, really? It's just a hallmark of dirty American gymnastics anyway.

Bars meltdowns were the big trend of day 1, which is worrying since that is supposed to be the event where Russia can get their big scores, and they're kind of depending on it to make up for where they lack on other events. They had 4 14+ routines, two of which came from Kapitonova, who fell, and Skrypnik, who we all know are never getting selected, one from Melnikova, who also fell, and the other from Spiridonova. And while Spiridonova is in genuine contention, she is dead weight everywhere else when Russia is looking to plug holes, and she even had her own issues with a .5 late pirouette. Paseka is back on vault despite some scares she might still be in traction or whatever was supposed to be going on with her, but only reached 13.25 on bars, where she is also supposed to be able to contribute, especially now with Vika out.

Angelina grabbed the beam and fell on her double pike dismount day 1, which was definitely worrying since who are we supposed to be able to put on beam if Melka starts breaking down? She pulled it together for a hit, if tentative, routine day 2 which made everyone let out an extremely tensely held breath, and so we carry on. She actually pulled everything together day 2, improving on bars as well for another hit and keeping pace on vault and floor. I won't be surprised if she is used on all four in the team final. But it does definitely make a contrast to the American nationals where pretty much everyone had their issues but only two who have at all legitimate shots actually fell, and then on routines where they're not needed.

Seda is actually pulling out about her best work yet, which is lovely to see and not exactly universal. Definitely reminds me of how she seemed to be the only Russian who actually cared about their performance at the end of the team final last year. The Rods seem to put her on teams even when her work makes her inclusion arguable, so I'd not be at all surprised to see her on the Olympic team, especially with so many being sidelined. She has been one of the top on beam in Penza, which I find more than just mildly amusing. But I think that amusement is outweighed by depression. Don't forget that she is at the top with a semi-crashed dismount day 1.

Aliya has fallen thrice on bars across the two days. That is about the last thing Russia needed or expected. One day can be a fluke off day, two days is concerning. She is back to the AA now, which is definitely a weight of Russia's collective shoulders, but man. She's still struggling to get an acro series in. Why doesn't she just have a BHS+BHS series at this point to make sure she gets it?

Afan and Kharenkova are both out with injury right now, to top everything off. Kharenkova was not the expected team member in the way Afan is, but she had the preferable hit record compared to Tutkhalyan, and with Vika out, Russia is in the throes of a HOW DO WE PUT TOGETHER A BEAM LINEUP??? crisis. (Side note: how much do you think Russia would love to have Ragan Smith right now?)

Afan's situation I think sums up the why Russia is in such a relative shambles. She got injured before Euros, and yet, instead of replace her with Kapitonova, she was still put up in competition. The reasoning? They would have had to rely on an FTY otherwise. And now she's spending the lead up to the Olympics in Germany getting surgery. The Rods never see beyond what's right under their nose. Not having three DTYs meant Russia might not win Euros, so she had to be kept, never mind that it might put her ability to compete in Rio at risk. It's the same thing they've been doing all quad. Remember when they had an Olympic-worthy Universiade team and then were scrambling to find three gymnasts they could send to Worlds? How about the number of minor competitions they've sent Aliya to instead of having her rest only for her to be weakened come the major season? They consistently put success at whatever competition they're at RIGHT NOW above success later in the season.

Alright, so the Olympic picture. Melnikova's in. Aliya's in, no matter what happened in Penza. The other two spots are between Paseka, Spiridonova, Afan, and Tutkhalyan. Honestly, to me, at this point, it makes sense just to take the team that has the most potential for individual success, which this group could still have a fair share of. The three picks for that would obviously be Paseka, Spiridonova, and Afan if she gets back. The problem there is either Spiridonova will have to go up on beam or Afan will have to get beam back, which is a lot to ask in her recovery. Tutkhalyan is preferable to Spiridonova for beam, but it's still kind of worrying that she's a lineup savior there.

I'm super excited about these juniors after P&Gs and you should be too

Junior competitions are always a blast because you just see a ton of talent and potential and you don't have everyone scrambling to prove their worth on a major team. Here are a few juniors who made me take notice for the first time in St. Louis- so no Maile types who we've all known forever.

Riley McCusker
It seems weird to be putting the silver medalist here, but how many people knew she existed before this season? I was taken aback to realize she'll be a senior next year- holding her from elite until this year seems to go very much against Maggie's strategies with Laurie, Jazzy, and Ari Agripides. I love how she has a different style from your stereotypical MG Elite- not as showy, it seems to me. I think she could be very much a Maggie type who turns senior the first year of the quad and than just keeps building. Her foundation she has now is beautiful, and I'd love to see her take on a role as an elegant type in the US.

Sunisa Lee
Her floor is what really caught my eye in St. Louis. I love her DLO and her choreography showed tons of promise! Her bars also have nice work. I'd love to her continue to develop in the next two years before she turns senior in 2019, because she totally has the talent and lovely style.

Madeline Johnston
Madeline caught my eye on bars, which is interesting because they were super low-scoring with only a 4.8 D score, but that's actually pretty similar to Kyla Ross and Morgan Hurd's D scores their first years as elite. What surprised me is she only got an 8.0 E score both days, seeing as she seemed quite clean to me. Especially day 2, that seems low to me.

Sloane Blakely
She's another one who has fairly simple routines at this point but just looks polished. Beam especially is where she stood out to me as one who didn't have the flashiest routine, didn't even have necessarily the steadiest performance, but looked comfortable in an elite competition setting. She didn't hit her acro series either night, and as a back tuck+back tuck series, that just seems to be begging not to be credited (also, thumbs up to you, USAG judges, for not just crediting everything attempted or ignoring a completely missing CR for once and actually encouraging gymnasts to change composition that's not working for them- keep this up), but overall she just seems way more confident than I expect from a new junior.

Lauren Letzsch
Lauren's floor is fabulous and honestly reminds me more of what you'd  expect from a Russian junior than a stereotypical American junior- she has that look of Russian juniors who've been around the top scene their whole lives. She also, like Sunisa, has an awesome DLO and I love her twisting connection! Sealing the "you look like you're a Russian junior" deal is her fabulous double L+Memmel turn connection. She definitely had some rough spots on other events, but she does some nice work and I'd like to see it built upon.

Cameron Machado
Cameron really shows promise across the board. She has about middling difficulty everywhere, which is perfect for her since she's a 2019 senior, and her execution and presentation really is quite polished, setting her up well. Like I said, she really has talent on all four events, which makes me hope she'll emerge as a balanced (and stylish) AAer.

Also, I mentioned her in my Classics/Euros bullet post, but I'm gonna give Tori Tatum a bit of an extended mention here as well. I just love her style and line. Beam is unfortunately rather a thorn in her side, but she has two more years on the junior level to build confidence there and she really is just lovely on the other three events. She ups the standard junior vault difficulty a bit with a 1.5 twister, and it is gorgeous.

Out of the frying pan....

Well, Nationals are over, and for the juniors, that means we got to see some lovely new talent, and for the seniors, the field has now been cut to the 15 who will be contending for Olympic spots. May the odds be ever in your favor!

The Good

• Christina is going to Trials blessings all around!!
• Aly. What a weekend.
• Maile O'Keefe reminded everybody she exists and slayed the life out of that competition
• Riley All-the-silvers McCusker
• Brenna hit bars night 2!!
• And when she had trouble night 1 muscled through and didn't come off. I'm accepting reality that she won't be named to the team, but I am stoked that she held on both nights!
• Meals placed 6th AA and earned an automatic Trials birth GET THAT ALTERNATE SPOT
• Ragan put together the hit skills on the beam with a strong Patterson night 2 glory hallelujah
• Chae Campbell's vault
• Laurie. Beam. Night 1.
• Trinity Thomas taking flight on her rebound from her DLO
• Simone just casually getting 16s on floor and a 9.9 E score on vault, no biggie. I was honestly half expecting them to give that vault a 10.
• Maddie Kocian coming out night 2 and being all "Top that, go ahead, try" with that bar routine
• Nia Dennis placing on bars after a freaking Achilles injury in February

The Bad

• Gabby just seemed kind of off
• Morgan Hurd also was off
• Mykayla Skinner beam night 2. But 5 years from now I will still be celebrating the way she just turned her fall onto the beam into choreography. Work it.
• Jordan Chiles and Emma Malabuyo both being pulled for injury. Fortunately it's nothing too serious for either, right?
• Maggie's issues on bars night 2

The Ugly

• Deanne Soza's meltdown day 2. I hate to use such sensationalist language, but that's what it was. But again, she could very easily be blind right now. So priorities.
• Chae Campbell's dismount day 1.
• Ragan's Grishina night 1

Juniors Won Things Too It's Not Just Pre-Trials Yay!
Maile absolutely destroyed this competition. She hasn't always been the most consistent athlete in the past, so it was wonderful to see her go 8-for-8 and take the top spot in the midst of a competition riddled with issues. She's a 2018 senior, so I'm looking forward to seeing what she can bring next year as a last-year junior. I just love her double Arabian bars dismount! Her beam is completely astounding, and I really hope she can keep up this level of consistency there as she continues through her career. And I just love her giant smile when she landed her last tumbling pass day 2 and knew she had the title!
Riley is just a beautiful gymnast. Her extension and presentation is just picture-perfect. The only area with real error was her twisting (and her fall on her UB dismount day 2, but those things happen). I love seeing her floor with a non-Laurie-copycat style, which we haven't really seen from MG Elite. Everything just looked so easy for her! I'm excited to see what we see from her next year- when she'll be a senior, what?
Gabby is one I'm enjoying watching work her way to the top. She isn't always the top scorer, but she always chugs along and tends to capitalize. Her bars and beam have awesome work, and I think she has big things ahead of her!

Al's Moments of Gold

97% of the time I feel like "Replace Al with anybody, please. Literally anybody." And then there's the other 3% of the time when he comes up with gold ("Excuse me Mr. Dagget" being my favorite, of course) and I'm all "Never leave us, Al, never leave." And Al hit gold a couple times night 2.

• (To Tim) "You do a better Bela"
• "Shawn Johnson won the silver in the all around in the Olympics behind a very annoying woman"
• When he said "Flag up in the corner" so intently after Gabby's floor routine, not because the line itself was great, but because you could tell he was SO EXCITED to be correcting Tim and not playing the idiot for 2 seconds, you could tell he was just thinking "This is my moment of glory!" and reveling in it

The Olympic Puzzle

My 100%s: Simone, Aly, Laurie

Simone because duh. Aly because she has an Amanar and contributes on beam and is a favorite for a floor medal. Laurie because of bars and beam.

No, not Gabby. I'm one of about 27 who don't have her as a lock, and of those 27 I'm one of about 4 who doesn't have her there for a reason other than "She beat Miss Precious Perfect in London." Whether Miss Precious Perfect is Vika or Jordyn for that specific person.

My Fighting Contenders: Maggie, Gabby, Maddie, Mykayla

Alright, so why Gabby isn't a lock for me. As of now, she is only consistently in contributing range on bars, and to me, it just doesn't make sense to bring her just for bars. It's not like last quad where it would have been worth bringing her just for bars because the actual specialists were dead weight on the other events where we needed contributors and she had top AAer clout. The bars specialist situation is quite different this quad and she's being outstripped in the AA currently. She did outscore Laurie on vault night 2, and if I were Martha, she'd need to keep that up to get on the Gabby's on the team train. Or if she finally busts out the rumored Amanar.

Obviously we only saw two events from Maggie, but if she comes back fighting fit on vault and floor and Gabby doesn't withdraw a bigger vault from the bank, I'd take Maggie ahead of Gabby for vault and floor and lead off on bars. So many people are losing their minds over the idea of Maggie going up on bars in the team final, but she was the lead off last year and scored 14.8, so why? Though her night 2 bars didn't do her any favors.

On the Koclear front, Martha likes AA specialists over true specialists, so even though Ashton is better on bars and has been steadier on beam in the domestic season, Madison gets the bars specialist spot, assuming there is one. Which I think is about an 85% likelihood.

Mykayla has value for vault and floor, as usual, especially for having two vaults and a potential medal position with the potential for a medal with Bee Farm's questionable status. Of course, the problem is that Simone would have to go up on bars in TF with Mykayla on a team with Aly, which the US doesn't like to do.

My Outsiders: Amelia, Ashton, Ragan, Brenna

Amelia is killing it and she has huge vaulting and awesome bars, which fits nicely with the 3 up top, and she's just awesome, okay? Get that alternate spot!

Ashton has the disadvantage of being a true specialist and not doing all events, but her scores are giant (not saying entirely uninflated), and so she still must be given consideration.

After Ragan's rough Nationals, I just don't think the Olympics is in the cards for her, but she's just such a strong athlete that you still just can't count her out yet.

And Brenna. I still can't count her out completely. And vault and bars!

Some Favorite Routines
Juniors
Vault- Chae Cambell, day 2

This was just ridiculously high and flighty

Bars- Morgan Hurd, day 2

She swings so nicely in this routine, and she got the upgraded dismount quite well!

Beam- Maile O'Keefe, day 2

SHE DOES A DUDNIK ACRO SERIES

Floor- Riley McCusker, day 2

I love her style and presentation, and she's overall clean in the tumbling for the most part

Seniors
Vault- Simone Biles, night 2

Unfortunately, it seems USAG's camera spazzed out during this vault so we only get the crappy back-up camera quality

Bars- Brenna Dowell night 2

She made it through the routine without major error!

Beam- Laurie Hernandez night 1/Ragan Smith night 2

Yes, I tied them. Laurie's is perfection and I love Ragan's too much to bother much with the wobble on the full. Side note- can USAG please be consistent on whether it's "Laurie" or "Lauren" with their video titles? It's not even consistent within the same year.

Floor- Aly Raisman, night 2

This is just a wow routine. Her presentation has improved so much from last quad, and I think her form was about the best I've seen it in this one.

Trials Spots Predictions

Like with my May Rio predictions, it's the Olympic year, so why not make the most of it?

Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Gabby Douglas
Maggie Nichols
Laurie Hernandez
Ragan Smith
Madison Kocian
Ashton Locklear
Brenna Dowell
Mykayla Skinner
Alyssa Baumann
Rachel Gowey
Amelia Hundley
Bailie Key
Emily Schild

Simone, Aly, Gabby, Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, and Maddie I'd say are all locks. Ashton, Brenna, and Mykayla I think are all near-locks. They should be the pack of legitimate contenders for the team.

If Alyssa and Rachel keep putting together AA sets like they had at Classics, I don't think they should have any trouble making Trials, because while they're pretty much out of the team picture, they both could legitimately make good alternates, and Alyssa especially would be a perfectly fine team member if the situation demanded. Meals I also expect to get a spot fairly easily. She might not have an Amanar, but her DTY is big and easy, and she can swing bars nicely; in addition, she's gotten more solid on beam and has a history of strong floor work.

Bailie, of course, we have yet to see in competition this year, but her bars from PT at Classics looked very nice and along the lines of last year's work. If she comes back as expected, she should be in with the three above.

So that leaves one filler spot. I went with Schild because she has strong vault and bars and is okay on the other two events. I think if the US experienced some sort of annihilation of their gymnastics team and only five of the gymnasts at Trials could compete at the end, and one of those gymnasts had to be the filler spot, Martha would want Emily because she has two strong events and hit beam both times she's competed on it this season.

I think the other options for the filler spot would be Jazmyn Forberg and maybe Christina Desiderio. Jazzy had a really rough Classics, but if she doesn't keep melting down at Nationals, she has some strong routines with good difficulty. Christina also has a good AA set, and she scored above 14 on all her routines at Classics. Having a steady Nationals might put her in the mix for Trials.

Rant/USA depth analysis

So, I saw some idiot saying that the US doesn't really have depth right now, and because I'm irritable like that, I decided to do a little combination rant/analysis post to prove 'em wrong.

And because some idiot also recently submitted a confession to GFC saying the US was putting all of its eggs in one basket with Simone, let's start by talking about how there are still near limitless options with her gone. Without Simone, there are still Gabby, Aly, Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Brenna, and Mykayla at the top, and then Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals (she killed it at Classics and VT/UB workers are well suited to the team and her floor is awesome and I'll totally get all Hagrid don't-insult-Albus-Dumbledore-in-front-of-me when it comes to Meals) on the outside as well. That's 13 totally viable options to choose from. And a combination of options that would make picking out of a hat a viable option for a gold-contending team.

To prove my point, I had a little fun with a random generator and here are the five gymnasts I got: Aly, Bailie, Alyssa, Brenna, Rachel
VT: (Bailie) Alyssa, Brenna, Aly
UB: (Aly) Bailie, Rachel, Brenna
BB: (Rachel) Bailie, Aly, Alyssa
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Brenna, Aly
This team is definitely not close to as strong as the one that will be named assuming some plague doesn't befall the team or VRod doesn't hire the Russian mafia to Tanya Harding everyone, and China would definitely be narrowing in on it, but it would still be in the hunt for the top prize.

Too easy? Of course. Alright, let's constrain the team only to gymnasts who turned senior this quad, so not only eliminating Gabby and Aly, but also Brenna and Mykayla. So that leaves Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
I'd pick a team of Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, and Alyssa
VT: Alyssa/Ragan, Laurie, Maggie
UB: (Ragan) Maggie, Laurie, Maddie
BB: (Maggie) Alyssa, Laurie, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Laurie, Ragan, Maggie
And this one is stronger than my random generator team (not that surprising, really), so again, strong contenders for gold.

Still too easy? Maggie and Laurie carried that last team- let's get rid of them too. So now the group is reduced to Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
So the team I'd pick now is Ragan, Alyssa, Bailie, Maddie, and Meals
VT: Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Meals
UB: (Ragan) Bailie, Meals, Maddie
BB: (Meals) Bailie, Alyssa, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Meals, Ragan
Still four strong lineups, still expected to medal, still potential for gold.

So name me another team where you could constrain selection to only gymnasts who turned seniors this quad and THEN cut out the top three remaining AAers and still have a team that would be considered as much a lock for a medal as a team can ever be in this sport.

China:
Alright, so out goes Shang Chunsong, Tan Jiaxin, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, and Mao Yi.
The team: Chen Siyi, Fan Yilin, Huang Huidan, Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru
VT: Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru, Chen Siyi
UB: Zhu Xiofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
BB: Zhu Xiaofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
FX: Zhu Xiaofang, Chen Siyi, Liu Jinru
Bars is still great, and beam is fine enough, but they're stuck with an FTY on vault and floor is once again a weakness.

Russia:
For the Russian we-expect-80%-of-our-team-to-be-repeat-Olympians Federation, out go Aliya, Vika, Afan, Maria Bee Farm, Angelina Melnikova, Seda Tutkhalyan, and Maria Kharenkova.
The team: Natalia Kapitonova, Evgenia Shelgunova, Daria Skrypnik, Anastasia Dmitrieva, Daria Spiridonova
VT: Shelgunova, Skrypnik, Dmitrieva
UB: Skrypnik, Kapitonova, Spiridonova
BB: Spiridonova/Kapitonova, Skrypnik, Shelgunova
FX: Kapitonova, Dmitrieva, Shelgunova
Three DTYs for them and the bars lineup is still killer, but relying on Spiridonova, Kapitonova, or Skrypnik on beam is never a good idea and Shelgunova has been very up and down there this year as well, so who knows how many would stay on. Floor also has three okay routines, but is lacking any standout and would be outstripped pretty easily.

Even with these ridiculous eleventh plague of the Exodus plague on the gymnasts constraints, China and Russia would still be able to put together pretty good teams that would acquit themselves well, but with Brazil and GB mounting fierce offensives, both of them would have stiff competition for a place on the podium. But compare them to the US plague on the gymnasts team, who would still be a practical shoe-in for a medal and could mount a good offensive for gold, and it's ridiculously obvious that the US does, in fact, lead the world in depth.