Favorite Routines of the Quad: Beam

Anastasia Grishina 2013 Europeans AA

Remember when Grishy was looking like a star of the quad? Those were the days. The jaw-dropping moment of this is the lovely Onodi+illusion. This is just a gorgeous and lovely steady routine.

Norah Flatley 2014 Pac Rims EF

Norah Flatley on beam is just an otherworldly experience. She just looks so unhurried. She had two beautiful acro series, and her arabesque is such a beautiful touch.

Eythora Thorsdottir Hamburg 2014

A very weak dismount because she was coming back from injury, but this was a lovely elegant routine with so many unique combinations. Eythora just shows so much of the originality missing from beam recently in this routine. I just eat up her dance+acro combinations.

Kyla Ross 2015 P&Gs Day 2

Kyla Ross angry beam is basically all you need in life.

Pauline Schaefer 2015 DM EF

Pauline is such a gorgeous beam worker, and I love her original choreography. She has her lovely original mount and incredible original acro skill in this routine. I also love her dismount- it's been abused this quad, but when performed like this, it's magical. There's nothing out of place in this routine, and I just love it.

Maile O'Keefe 2016 P&Gs Day 1

Beam extraordinaire Maile O'Keefe. She's got the legendary Dudnik acro series and a layout series just to top things off. Her work is just so off-the-charts and steady. She will hopefully be a great addition to the arsenal in 2018.

Flavia Saraiva 2016 Anadia EF

Flavia is just so delightful. Beam is my favorite event of hers, especially when she hits like this. This routine is full to bursting- she's got her double LOSO series, her roundoff+layout, and the beautiful forward series. And add to that her charming choreography from her lovely 2014-2015 floor, and it's just a completely wonderful routine.

Ragan Smith 2016 Secret Classic

The errors in the dismount were sad, but it was super exciting to see after waiting with baited breath so long. But otherwise, it was about as perfect as she can get. I love her standing full and amazing stretched layout.

Sanne Wevers 2016 Nationals

The most uniquely difficult and smooth as butter routine in existence. I could watch Sanne work beam forever.

Favorite Routines of the Quad: Bars

Aliya Mustafina, 2013 Worlds AA

Gotta love the Seitz and the Mustafina dismount. That's one of those things you've just gotta love about Aliya, how she'll just pull out a randomly different routine every now and then to keep you on your toes. And as always, the classic Aliya swing.

Roxana Popa, 2014 Blume Memorial

Oh, how I miss pre-hey-your-ACL-is-torn-by-the-way Roxana. Her bars work especially was super exciting, and all the connections in this routine just make it so dynamic. There's just so much flight and movement between the bars in this routine! And the inbar Geinger in its pure form.

Rebecca Tunney, 2014 Europeans EF

Long live the Church+Bhardwaj! There's just so much flight and not a second of wasted time in her routine.

Lisa Katharina Hill, 2014 Stuttgart World Cup

Another routine with a Bhardwaj- unique transition work is a pretty sure-fire way to get on this list! I also love her long combination into the Gienger combining pirouettes, transitions, and different kinds of circling elements. There's just so much variety in this routine!

Brenna Dowell, 2014 P&Gs, Day 1

There is just so much in this routine! I'm a fan of everything but the kitchen sink bars routines, and I love how much variety and excitement she is able to pack in. All of the combinations are just amazing, and the Tweddle+Ezhova especially!

Amelia Hundley, 2015 Pan Ams EF

I just really love the way Meals works bars. I find there to be something Aliya-esque in her swing. She never seems to be fighting with the apparatus, and it almost seems as if time has slowed slightly while she performs.

Shang Chunsgong, 2015 Worlds TF

You've just gotta love a good ol' release fest. And it's especially nice with Shang's gorgeous eponymous skill. I also like that she's got some good ol' pretty Chinese one-armed pirouettes going. I was never a pirouette fest fan, but I do wish they hadn't disappeared so much. Shang's issue on bars is her swing can sometimes be a bit labored, but that wasn't a problem here.

Fan Yilin, 2015 Worlds EF

Such a difficult routine and so well done. Lots of movement between the bars, pirouettes, and a great inbar Gienger! Definitely my favorite of the reigning world champions.

Becky Downie, 2016 Europeans EF

So many fabulous releases and combinations! And with Becky's beautiful presentation to top it off. This is a monster of a routine. The Chow+Shang is so breathtaking, but then, so is everything else in this routine.

Jessica Lopez, 2016 Sao Paulo World Cup EF

So many inbar Giengers this quad! One thing I love about JLo's bars is how she works and turns through inverted grip. And her lovely open Jaeger! I also love her double front, there's just something so compact about it.

Ruby Harrold, 2015 Worlds EF

And my favorite UB routine to end! Both a Maloney+Bhardwaj and a Van Leeuwen+Zuchold. The Zuchold is just the ultimate of cool transitions (which, in case you can't tell by now, I'm a sucker for). Not pristine, but just plain cool.

Favorite Routines of the Quad: Vault

Dipa Karmakar, 2014 Commonwealth Games, Event Final Vault 2

Yes, this vault is rather terrifying, and possesses none of the qualities of a vault you would usually find in a list like this of mine. But like I said in my favorite vaults post, I was more in the moment when watching this vault than in pretty much any other piece of gymnastics in history, so it will always be in my heart.

Ellie Black, 2014 Commonwealth Games, Event Final Vault 2

She just appears to be floating in this vault, especially in the landing.

Bailie Key, 2014 Pac Rims, Team/AA Final

Just beautiful form throughout, and such a light, upright, stuck landing. Too bad she had to get injured, 2014 Bailie was just such a wonderful gymnast.

Hong Un Jong, 2014 Worlds, Event Final Vault 1

When she competed through 2013, her vaults were so helicopter-ish, but since 2014 she has just been the floatiest of floaty vaulters (okay, maybe not the most ultimately floaty vaulter, but very floaty nonetheless). Her Amanar went from a storm center to effortless.

Simone Biles, 2015 P&Gs Day 1, Vault 1

Why this scored lower than day 2, we'll never know. But regardless, about as perfect as any gymnastics has ever been.

Rebeca Andrade, 2016 Olympics

Just look at that wonderful Amanar.

Giulia Steingruber, 2016 European Championships, Qualifications Vault 1

Such an utterly effortless Rudi. She just flies on this vault.

Zsofia Kovacs, 2016 European Championships, Qualifications Vault 1

Also known as the DTY so leisurely I couldn't tell she twisted twice.

Final Olympic Wrap-Up!! Finally!!!

Life has been quite hectic, but I'm finally getting around to getting all my last Olympic thoughts together! In a little less than a month, things should calm down for a bit, so I'm hoping to get more done then.

The Good

• SANNE
• Simone putting everything together in a major international AA for the first time since 2013
• The MAG team and AA finals
• Laurie Hernandez, that pure child, on beam
• The Dutch royal family celebrating after the beam final
• Simone Biles has a vault title
• A relatively injury-free competition on the WAG side
• Bars. What a wonderful crop of top routines we've had.
• A Dutch Olympic beam champion
• Ellie Downie coming back after her scary fall on floor pretty much whole and fine
• Aly's redemption from four years ago
• Lieke supporting Sanne in the beam final
• Oleg Verniaiev is an Olympic champion!!!!
• Max Whitlock's amazing success
• A non-Big Four medalist in all WAG EFs!!
• The Russians- on both sides- pulling out all the consistency they got
• A beam champion with a unique routine that INCLUDES A RISKY MOUNT!!
• Wang Yan suddenly becoming a rock (shoutout to Seda for doing the same in QF and TF)
• Giulia Steingruber is an OLYMPIC MEDALIST!
• SANNE WEVERS IS OLYMPIC BEAM CHAMPION I CAN DIE HAPPY!!!!

The Bad

• The sea of potential bronze medalists in the WAG AA all trying to give the medal to someone else and then the only one who had a hit day getting screwed over by the judges
• So many scary vaults in the EF
• So many injuries in the MAG AA
• What even was some of that scoring?
• Only two gymnasts hit their routines without major error in the EF THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A MORE CONSISTENT GROUP

The Ugly

• THAT injury
• The whole Ukraine TF fiasco
• Epke's HB EF fall

Better, Worse, or the Same Compared to London (the competition that converted me to a real fan):

Team: Better. The US might have been infinitely more untouchable, but I'll take the four-way battle between Russia, China, GB, and Japan for silver and bronze, even if the medals ended up going to the other two Big Four countries, over the two-way each battles for gold (which was pretty well decided after two rotations) and bronze from London.

All Around: Worse. Gold and silver clinched before the beginning of the competition, and the depressing implosion of the potential bronze medalists. This should have been an epic knock-down drag-out for bronze. Alas.

Vault: Better. For the first time since the new scoring system, we have an Olympic vault podium without a fall! And Giulia medalled, making it instantly 10X better.

Bars: The Same. The gymnasts who had major errors were way more influential in this one than in London, and there was a lot of similarity in Daria, Aliya, and Maddie's routines, but the overall quality of bars has just risen so much this quad. And the Germans, Songsong, and JLo all have exciting routines, and a surprise medalist!

Beam: The Same. There's probably a bit of my Sanne stan coming through in that rating. There were the same number of gymnasts who actually hit their routines properly in both finals, and though there were larger errors among the rest (and on the podium), the winning routine was far more original. And Sanne won, I can't actually care about anything else.

Floor: The Same. Again, gold and silver were pretty much already decided, and Giulia had her issues, taking the third-best out of contention. But the overall field was of the same quality as London, and the routines were overall more engaging. And a great field of gymnasts from all over!

Best Finals: MAG TF, WAG TF, and MAG AA. All had super deep fields with the battles for medals going right down to the wire!

My Favorite Non-gym Olympic Moment: It would have been unarguably my favorite if SANNE WEVERS hadn't become Olympic beam champion. The Fijian rugby team singing a hymn and praying together after their victory and kneeling to receive their medals. I NEVER cry at sports- I din't cry at either of Sanne's major beam medals- and this brought tears to my eyes.

More Olympic posting! On the controversial finishes...

Qualifications: Now, I'd be lying if said the witch-hunt response of the gymternet regarding bars in general at the Olympics didn't make me somewhat less sympathetic here. But honestly, it really did seem to be a bump as the subdivisions progressed. Sub 1 was super harsh, subs 2 and 3 were both scoring at the top of range but were fairly consistent with each other, sub 4 got a boost again, and then honestly there wasn't really anything in sub 5 that could stand out to me enough for me to have an opinion with the marathon day. Honestly, with the way their routines went that day, the Chinese bars workers weren't in the very top echelon, and there are a lot of gymnasts in that second echelon on bars. Looking at results other than the Chinese and the Americans on bars, Hong Un Jong's vaults were scored low compared to the rest of the scoring that day in sub 1, Tutya Yilmaz and Nina Derwael both would likely have made their potential EFs had they been in a later sub, Becky Downie got within a tenth of Fan Yilin when she hit her feet on the bar in sub 3, and Jessica Lopez has a couple noticeable form breaks in her routine that weren't reflected in her score in sub 4 as well. So while the scoring was all over the place, it didn't really seem to be targeted the way so many were claiming. To put together my thoughts regarding bars in qualifications, I decided to have some fun and score the routines of the gymnasts who made the final and the alternates using Aliya's score as the metric. Of course, the disclaimer that I'm just a couch fan trying out applying the code. Also, to make it more similar to an actual judging experience, I watched Aliya's routine once to get my standard, and then only watched each routine once.
1. Aliya Mustafina: 15.833-6.8/9.033
2. Maddie Kocian: 15.666-6.7/8.966
3. Daria Spiridonova: 15.6-6.5/9.1
3. Gabby Douglas: 15.6-6.5/9.1
5. Nina Derwael: 15.566-6.6/8.966
5. Elisabeth Seitz: 15.566-6.6/8.966
7. Fan Yilin: 15.566-6.9/8.666
8. Sophie Scheder: 15.5-6.6/8.9
9. Shang Chunsong: 15.5-6.7/8.8
10. Becky Downie: 15.266-6.8/8.466
11. Jessica Lopez: 15.066-6.4/8.666

Men's AA: So, to preface this, Oleg is my favorite MAG gymnast and I stan him shamelessly. But, to try to put on my objective pants... this is way too close to call. This would have been a perfect situation for a tie (y'know, if the IOC didn't randomly decide that ONLY GYMNASTICS needs to have Olympic tiebreakers...) But, if I am forced to make a call and not play 2015 Worlds UB judge, I do think Oleg had the slightly better day. 8.3 does seem just a bit low for that HB routine.

Women's AA: Shang was robbed. When discussing the AA bronze, Shang's BB score is usually pointed to as the issue, but personally, I don't think that was actually a problem. BB scoring for the most part that day was pretty tight all around (pun... maybe slightly intended) with the exception of Simone, which affected literally nothing, and Aliya (at least, of the gymnasts who had any influence at all on anything medal-wise). So for me, the problem- speaking in terms of how judging went that day, at least- was Aliya's BB score. Shang's FX score was a little low, too. *But the FTY!!* But Shang's 1.5 overall D score advantage! The salient point is the E scores, which weren't consistent, in my opinion.

UB: Not really all that controversial, but about 2 people disagreed and the still-salty fans from quals decided to make a huge deal out of it. Agree. Maddie had a couple little errors at the end of her routine she hadn't had in the previous rounds.

BB: In the world of "everything goes the way I want it to!!!", Simone wouldn't have the bronze. There would also have been more than two gymnasts in the final who hit their routines without major error (maybe if Shang had been in the final....) But yeah, in terms of what I want to see, I'd give the bronze to Flava Flav. In the world of "the judges are directed by the FIG how to score and can't take more than .8 if the gymnasts doesn't actually fall", I do think Simone probably had the more COP-friendly routine. I will complain about what this says about the COP. Or, at least, I would if SANNE WEVERS hadn't BECOME OLYMPIC BEAM CHAMPION IN THIS FINAL, making me completely unconcerned about anything else.

MostepanovaFan-style Rankings After the Olympics

So, the Olympics ended, and then school started, so it's been a pretty hectic few weeks. So... I'm just getting to Olympic blogging! Because for some reason I didn't really want to post during the Olympics. There will be more, even though it may be very late!

If you've never seen a MostepanovaFan video on YouTube, you should. They're super fun and informative, but it looks as though she's stopped making them, so I'm filling in on this blog. She has a whole bunch of videos listing the most successful individual gymnasts. The ranking system is thus: individual World and Olympic medals only, by total then color, Olympic medals get precedence in ties.

Top Ten Most Successful Russian Gymnasts
10. Daria Spiridonova: 1 gold, 1 bronze

9. Ksenia Afanasyeva: 1 gold, 1 silver

8. Elena Produnova: 3 bronze

7. Ludmilla Ezhova: 1 silver, 2 bronze

6. Maria Paseka: 1 gold, 1 silver, 1 bronze

5. Dina Kochetkova: 2 gold, 2 bronze

4. Viktoria Komova: 2 gold, 2 silver

3. Elena Zamolodchikova: 4 gold, 1 silver, 1 bronze

2. Aliya Mustafina: 4 gold, 3 silver, 8 bronze
1. Svetlana Khorkina: 11 gold, 7 silver, 2 bronze
Maria Paseka and Aliya were both able to move up on the list after Rio. Spiridonova put herself on the list and Afan and Vika have moved up this quad. Pretty good results for gymnasts who have to work under the Rods.

Top Ten Most Successful American Gymnasts
10. Mary Lou Retton: 1 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze
9. Chellsie Memmel: 2 gold, 2 silver
8. Kim Zmeskal: 3 gold, 1 bronze
7. Rebecca Bross: 2 silver, 3 bronze
6. Aly Raismin: 1 gold, 2 silver, 2 bronze

5. Shawn Johnson: 3 gold, 2 silver
4. Alicia Sacramone: 2 gold, 2 silver, 2 bronze
3. Nastia Liukin: 4 gold, 6 silver, 1 bronze
2. Shannon Miller: 6 gold, 3 silver, 2 bronze
1. Simone Biles: 11 gold, 2 silver, 3 bronze
Simone placing herself firmly at the top, no surprise. Aly has also placed herself on the list, and Kyla was able to outrank Dominique Dawes, who was on this list before this quad, as well. Not too shabby.

Top Ten Most Successful Gymnasts of All Time
10. Nellie Kim: 6 gold, 4 silver, 2 bronze
9. Daniela Silivas: 9 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze
8. Aliya Mustafina: 4 gold, 3 silver, 8 bronze
7. Lavinia Milosivici: 5 gold, 3 silver, 6 bronze
6. Gina Gogean: 6 gold, 3 silver, 6 bronze
5. Ludmilla Tourischeva: 6 gold, 5 silver, 4 bronze
4. Vera Caslavska: 10 gold, 4 silver, 1 bronze
3. Simone Biles: 11 gold, 2 silver, 3 bronze
2. Svetlana Khorkina; 11 gold, 7 silver, 2 bronze
1. Larissa Latynina: 12 gold, 8 silver, 4 bronze
I was not at all surprised the Simone took a commanding place on the list. What did surprise me was that she was able to snag THIRD. Simone and Aliya are the only gymnasts since the new scoring system who have been able to take a place on this list. Legends.

Top Ten Most Successful Gymnasts of the 2013-2016 Quad
10. Aly Raisman: 2 silver
9. Daria Spiridonova: 1 gold, 1 bronze
8. Huang Huidan: 1 gold, 1 silver
7. Maria Paseka: 1 gold, 1 silver
6. Sanne Wevers: 1 gold, 1 silver
5. Hong Un Jong: 1 gold, 1 silver, 1 bronze
4. Larisa Iordache: 2 silver, 2 bronze
3. Kyla Ross: 3 silver, 1 bronze
2. Aliya Mustafina: 2 gold, 5 bronze
1. Simone Biles: 11 gold, 2 silver, 3 bronze
Simone and Aliya also leading the medal tally for the quad. It makes me so happy that Sanne Wevers is sixth!! Also, two non-Big Four gymnasts on the list. Well done!

Opening Ceremonies day!!!! What I'm most looking forward to in Rio

Just a random assortment of the gymnastics stuff I'm super excited about in the Olympics that are STARTING TODAY!!! (There might be a lot of caps locking and exclamation points and screaming and emotional expression in this.) I'll be going in competition order, starting in qualification and ending with the floor final (which I WON'T GET TO WATCH LIVE!!!!)

My Favorites from the Mixed Groups: Being Ana Sofia Gomez Porras, Queen Chuso, Zsofia Kovacs, Marcia Videaux, and Courtney McGrogor, mostly. I am still just quite depressed that the ever-lovely Farah Ann Abdul Hadi didn't qualify. Tokyo 2020? But these ladies are all quite lovely.

The Battle for Floor Final: Which, again, I can't watch live. Ah. There's a pretty solid top tier of routines that doesn't make an upset look too likely, but the number of routines that could make this final! There's the Americans, the Japanese, the Brits, the Chinese, the Italians, Giulia Steingruber, Catalina Ponor.... This is a freakishly awesome crop of potential finalists.

Who will stay on bars?: Because so many of the top bars workers are also headcases. Prayer circle for Becky Downie and Elisabeth Seitz's bars?

The Race for Team Bronze: I am SO EXCITED for this battle!! I want an upset SO BADLY. Great Britain, Brazil, and Germany all have it, Japan could have a horse in the race with their good vault lineup and awesome back end on floor if they hit... This is going to be so great!

Rebeca Andrade BRINGING IT!!!!: Have you seen her Amanar? HAVE YOU? My ultimate fantasy AA podium is any podium with Rebeca on it- could she make it possible? She is doing AA in qualification? Anyway, the Brazilians are coming for your medals!

Will Hong do the TTY?: SHE IS ACTUALLY PULLING IT OUT IN TRAINING!!!! IS SHE GOING TO GO FOR IT?? THE T-T-Y!!!!!!

What about the Prods?: Dipa and Chuso just casually keeping everything interesting

The Wide-Open Bars Podium: We could 100% end up with a final where legitimately ANYONE COULD MAKE THE PODIUM. Aliya's just casually busting out a 6.8? Just a sea of potential medalists.

THE BEAM FINAL: I already mentioned in my fantasy podiums that I AM WAY TOO EMOTIONALLY INVESTED IN THIS FINAL!! It's the final I'm the most emotionally invested in. The lead-up looked like there would be five main contenders and I want them ALL to medal, but now Shang's sick and not hitting anything and two of the Americans are super off and Catalina's got a 6.8?? and UGHHH!!!

Just All The Fun Floor Routines: The second tier of floor routines has so many fun ones!! Claudia and the Italians and the Japanese and AAAHHHHH!!

I apologize for the copious amounts of caps lock an incoherence in this post. I am very excited about these things.

Fantasy Rio Podiums

Just for some fun before the Games! I'm not going to include the US for the team podium or Simone for any individual podiums, partly because it's too crowded already, partly because it's just not quite as fun when one of the people/teams on the fantasy podium is already super dominant and expected to do as well anyway. So they can get diamond-encrusted medals (would they technically be nonmedals?- okay, I'll put away my chemistry nerd puns now). Also, if I include a gymnast who is just total fantasy and not expected to be even close to the podium, I'll put a more realistic fantasy medalist in parentheses underneath.

Team
1. Great Britain
2. Brazil
3. Germany
Can you tell I love my underdog teams? I'm seriously pulling for a bronze upset, and I think there's a really good possibility it will happen!

All Around
1. Rebeca Andrade
2. Laurie Hernandez/Aly Raisman
3. Shang Chunsong
(Giulia Steingruber)
Even with the ACL hiatus, I have remained a devoted Rebeca fan. I really hope she can shine alongside Flavia! Shang came so close last time, and with her great gymnastics and sportsmanship and her life situation, it would just be so wonderful for her to finally medal individually!

Vault
1. Giulia Steingruber
2. Hong Un Jong
3. Marcia Videaux
Giulia has been so close to the top for so long, and she's done nothing but get better. I just love her vaulting, and it would be so great for her to do well! Also, she and Marcia both get nods for not doing strictly round off-entry vaults. And Hong of the weightless Amanar!

Uneven Bars
1. Ruby Harrold
2. Becky Downie
3. Fan Yilin
(Shang Chunsong)
Ruby's bars continue to be my favorite, and the new connection is just fabulous! But she is not a likely medalist at all. Becky medaling is my #1 hope for the UB final! Both the Chinese have fabulous routines, but Fan's is just smoother.

Balance Beam
Alright, so I'm copping out on beam. I'm way too emotionally invested in the beam podium (what a great final to be super emotionally invested in) and though I try to be as un-superstitious as possible, I'm not going to jinx an already beamy final. So I'm doing my dream podium of the gymnasts not likely in the medal hunt.
1. Eythora Thorsdottir
2. Vasiliki Millousi
3. Pauline Schaefer
Three gorgeous beam beauties. I love all of their unique skill sets and choreography!

Floor
1. Claudia Fragapane
2. Aly Raisman
3. Erika Fasana
There are too many gymnasts I love on floor this year. No, no Giulia on my dream podium. I love her on floor, but I'm not a fan of her current routine. Claudia winning a major floor medal is a huge dream of mine. Aly's tumbling is so great, and I just love how she has improved her presentation since last quad! And I just love Erika as a floor performer.

The Blogger vs. Martha Karolyi

This is my official argument against the Olympic team that was chosen. Well, Gabby's inclusion. Yes, this is all so two weeks ago. At first I was working on this post because I was really ranty and I knew if I didn't get it out, my frustration with this decision would be plaguing me for a long time because I'm irritable like that and doing this would give me some peace. I'd come to the place where I felt like I was probably not going to end up posting this because just writing it out was enough to get it out, but then in the last week or so there's been huge backlash against any disagreement with the team selection (at least in some regions of the gymternet), so now I'm doing this because I feel I need to give my stand. And so that's why I'm posting this two weeks post-decision.

And, to put forward the disclaimer once again, the title is vs. Martha Karolyi because, while it is Gabby's inclusion that I disagree with, it is Martha's selection process that made the decision and that's where my blame lies.

So, this format of this is basically going to be responses to the arguments in favor of Gabby's inclusion, because most of these hold about as much water as a paper bag.


Come on, Gabby's an awesome gymnast!
Yeah, she is. So are the alternates who outperformed her.

And name me another team who wouldn't snap up the opportunity to have Maggie on their team, aside from China who could take her or leave her. Most teams would have the same response to the opportunity for Amelia or Brenna.

So let's not pretend Gabby's spot would have gone to a mediocre athlete and she was the only awesome one in contention for it.


We NEED her bars!!
The short answer to that: No.

The long answer: People really like to exaggerate the US weakness on bars. It's not up to par with their other events, but they keep pace with the majority of the world, and their consistency is good enough that they can outperform better teams who often have to absorb large errors (read: Russia). At the 2014 Worlds, the US had the highest bars total in the team final, and at the 2015 Worlds, the second-highest.

In 2012, Jordyn Wieber went up on bars in the team final, and Simone is easily better than Jordyn was. The back end of Laurie and Maddie is also at least as good as the back end of Kyla and Gabby was in 2012 (I'd be tempted to say- as a huge Kyla Ross fan- definitely better, but the domestic scoring was rather wacky, so we'll see how much that deflates). And yet no one was saying bars would be the undoing of the US in 2012.
But the Amanar has been devalued and the US has fewer Amanars this year, so they have to augment their bars lineup!
The biggest problem here is it's impossible to run a narrative of "the US are the runaway favorites for gold" alongside a "the bars lineup has to squeeze every possible tenth or else everything crumbles" argument. But aside from that, Mykayla would have addressed the whole weaker vault lineup issue. And bars would still have had a stronger lineup than 2012. Not to mention that the US has gotten stronger on beam and floor, too, especially on floor where they are untouchable if they hit.
Martha likes having built-in backup on the team, and if Mykayla was on the team, there would be a hole for backup on bars
So was Aly or McKayla the built-in bars backup in 2012?

Ultimately, no one on this team- and certainly no one outside of Simone- was necessary. Especially the fifth member, regardless of whether it was Gabby or Mykayla or anyone at Trials. The four-person core would have been favorites for gold on their own, no fifth member needed, so the fifth member was just frosting anyway. And Mykayla provides more both from a team total perspective and from an individual success perspective. Gabby's average score on bars in 2016 is .12 higher than Simone's 2016 bars average, and that's including Gabby's 15.65 at Classics. On the other hand, Mykayla's 2016 vault average is .36 higher than Laurie's, and 1)Laurie was overscored at Trials most everywhere and I'd say her vault was also comparatively high at Nationals and 2)Mykayla scored higher on vault at the 2014 Worlds than she did at home. Gabby also doesn't bring any potential for an individual medal that isn't provided just as well by another member on the team. She isn't guaranteed a bars final spot at all, and she would need a lot of help from other gymnasts making mistakes to be able to get a medal there. The only place where she could really get an individual medal is in the AA, and she's been outstripped in the AA at home. Aly and Laurie would both be at least as able to get an AA medal as Gabby. Mykayla, on the other hand, brings the potential for a second vault medal, which she would absolutely be realistically in the running for. Mykayla augments both the team total and the potential medal haul.


Her beam wasn't an important routine for her, so her falls weren't actually that important
One of the biggest arguments in favor of Gabby being on the team, even back at the beginning of the year when I was the only one saying "Hmm, I don't think she really fits this puzzle," was that she could be put up on any event at any time and be expected to put up a good score. Her falls proved she can't. They are also part of the overall progress of her getting worse this year.


She peaks late and will bring her best when she needs to. Remember 2012 and 2015!
Alright, first thing, she'll bring it "when she needs to?" Why exactly isn't the selection process "when she needs to?" To me, "she'll care if she gets a medal out of it" is about the the most unflattering argument you can use for an athlete. It rubbed me the wrong way when it was Aliya at the 2013 Worlds qualification, and I'll always have the same reaction to that argument.

Alright, on to the actual argument. The first major issue is that Gabby's performance this year is nowhere near her 2012 or 2015 performances. In 2012, Gabby was second at Nationals, and tied for first after the first day, and won Trials. So no, you can't use 2012 as a precedent for this year. In 2015, Gabby was definitely more middle-of-the-pack, but this year she's had exactly one beam routine without either a fall or a near-fall, which was absolutely not the case last year. She had more hit beam routines across fewer days of competition. Across Classics and both days of Nationals, there was also only one day where she was out of the top three AA. This year, she's very firmly out of the top three. She's also had issues with her bars this season, not so last year. Not only did Gabby not get in Olympic shape by Trials, she's gotten worse throughout the season. That doesn't fit an upward trajectory argument.

And beyond that, did she really improve all that much between Nationals and Worlds/Olympics in 2012 and 2015? As mentioned above, in 2012 Gabby already was competing at the very top of the pack at the end of the season. Her biggest issue at Trials was a stalled handstand on bars day one. Her 2012 Trials really were pretty much comparable to Laurie's this year. If Laurie were to have the caliber of performances in Rio Gabby did in London, would we be saying anything about her improving so much from Trials? And honestly, was her 2015 Nationals to Worlds improvement really that impressive? She got the AA silver, yes, but if Maggie had gone up on all four in qualifications- which I said last year, and I stand by now, I would have made the same decision Martha did if I were in her position with that team- Gabby likely wouldn't even have made the final, and would only have had fifth place in the bars finals to her name individually. Aside from her wonky night one floor, Gabby's scores were pretty similar at Nationals and at Worlds. She mostly capitalized on decisions that weren't right in hindsight and her teammate's errors. Ultimately, in neither the case of 2012 nor 2015 does the argument that she sees marked improvement internationally from the domestic season have much fact-based evidence to back it up.

Also, nobody else would have gotten anything like this kind of consideration. You know who else would likely really have used that extra month and shown improvement come the Olympics? Maggie. She had an injury that really cut her training time and was basically a competition behind everybody else. She made awesome progress by the time she competed. But for Maggie, not only did she not get the benefit of the doubt because she was behind everyone, but that kept her from getting even an alternate spot. Martha said she wasn't in the picture due to her injury and subsequent recovery, yet those very same reasons gave just as much reason to believe she would have improved during camp.


Nationals and Trials aren't really important to Martha in choosing the team
So what exactly is important to Martha in choosing the team? This Olympics, it looks like Martha made her decision based on 2015. You can't pull out the consistency argument for Gabby, because she didn't show consistency this year. Why didn't she take into account the performances close to the Olympics?


Carly fell twice at Trials in 2004! Brenna was messing up all of last year and got on the team! If you look at the whole picture and not just the most recent meets, Aly was messing up, but everyone had her on the team!
Carly: Was national co-AA champion. Was third AA at Trials even counting two falls. Had potential to be a contributor on all of the other events as well. Gabby was fourth AA at Nationals and seventh AA at Trials with her two falls. She has bars, and otherwise only has potential to outdo Laurie on vault, which Mykayla would have added much more to, and I've already gone into why bringing Mykayla makes more sense for the success of the team. Not to mention Carly also underperformed in the Olympic TF, so are you sure that's the parallel you want to draw?

Brenna: And look how well that turned out. I say this as one who was pulling for Brenna to make the team in May.

Aly: Here are the differences between Aly and Gabby-
1)Aly was one of the most reliable on beam in the country (even if she had errors and didn't get her full D score, she would hit her routine) and had the second-best floor, so she had key routines regardless of her inconsistencies elsewhere. Gabby only had bars, where there were plenty of gymnasts who had usable routines that could score reasonably close to Gabby's and had more to contribute elsewhere, and she was also easily outstripped there by Maddie and Ashton.
2)Aly has gotten better throughout the season, not worse.


No other gymnast would have gotten this response after one bad meet
Gabby didn't have one bad meet. She was lackluster in the entire domestic season. Yes, she was good at American Cup and Jesolo. Why is that more important than Nationals or Trials?


Aly and Mykayla won't score well internationally, and Martha definitely took that into account
Actually, there's not much evidence to support an argument that Aly and Mykayla's execution will be scored harsher than at home, it actually tends to be the opposite.

Aly did experience a notable score drop in Glasgow, but historically she actually scores better internationally, and there are a couple things that make last year's outcome a fluke. First, she happened to have one of her worst days of competition in the qualification round. Second, she got Wieber-ed on her connections on beam. And she's changed her composition this year to address the wonky connections deal, so drop the whole "Aly's beam connections!!! They will be the death of her again!!" deal.

Mykayla actually scored higher on vault in Nanning than she had in the domestic season. So there's that argument blown.



Yes, there are arguments in favor of Gabby's inclusion and legitimate reasons she's on the team. But that doesn't mean everyone has to think the selected team was the best option.

On the IOC Decision...

I'm just going to put it out there at the beginning of the post that my views aren't necessarily those of the majority of the gymternet on the whole Russia ban debacle.

Personally, I see both sides of the argument.

Against the ban:
It's not fair to punish the clean athletes. There's no evidence that the gymnasts doped, so they should be allowed to compete.

For the ban:
Yes, there's no evidence that the gymnasts doped, but they still haven't undergone legitimate drug testing for two years. Also, this is an institutional problem in Russia, with the Russian government in on the cover-up, so Russia has to be banned entirely to adequately punish those actions.

Personally, I think the IOC decision was too lenient. I agree with the head of the American doping agency when he said the IOC "failed to take decisive leadership". I think the IOC should have taken it upon themselves to determine which sports would be allowed to compete, and my position is that Russia should not be allowed to send athletes from any sport where a doping cover-up was found, at least on a large-scale level- maybe 10+ athletes? Not to mention the whole "federations have 12 days to determine eligibility" mess.

The bigger issue I have with the ruling is that the Russian athletes will still be allowed to compete under the Russian flag. I support Russian athletes who don't show any evidence of doping being allowed to compete, but I think they should be competing under the Olympic flag with Russia not being credited for any of the medals its athletes earn. With its athletes being allowed to compete under the Russian flag, Russia will still be rewarded after being found guilty of systematic abuse of doping testing, when it really is the Russian doping system that needs to be punished. I think allowing Russian athletes to compete but requiring them to compete under the Olympic flag and not the Russian flag would have done a much better job of being fair to the clean athletes while still punishing the Russian system for its corruption.

Based on what is the selection committee actually selectioning?

Well, the whole "My team has stayed the same this entire time" thing actually happened. And I must sound extremely fickle after just Saturday saying I could see the advantages of a team with Gabby, but it left an extremely bad taste in my mouth that she was named.

I do still think she makes sense as a team member. But it bothers me that her inclusion was such a forgone conclusion this whole time. If it seemed that there had been any legitimate debate, that the gymnasts who actually delivered in the Trials process were being given the consideration they deserved, I would have felt more along the lines of "It's not the team I would have picked, and it was definitely a controversial decision with a bunch of options that all had pros and cons, but I get why they did what they did," whereas Gabby's position being unquestionable despite all the errors she's made makes me feel along the lines of, "What a slap in the face to Mykayla, who did precisely what Martha said she wanted to see- hitting everywhere, getting better as the Games get closer- but was shafted, to Maggie, who didn't even get thrown the alternate bone, and even to Ragan, who really gave it her best effort and placed higher than Gabby but didn't stand a chance when the team had already been chosen." Honestly, you know shenanigans are afoot when Tim is saying they're taking so much time to come up with how they're going to rationalize the team. If you're not expecting the ignorant masses who only tune in every four years to get why you put the reigning Olympic AA champ on the team, I think that says more than anything.

Like I said, I do think Gabby makes sense for the team based on Martha's priorities, specifically "Rest Simone on UB and have an AAer". But this Trials process was just kind of shady.

But anyway, this team is still super strong and should do very, very well. The biggest problem now remaining is who the heck is NOT going to do AA in quals. Laurie and Aly have earned it, full stop. But are they really not going to have Gabby do UB in quals? If they put her up, Aly makes the most sense to take out of the lineup in terms of just her ability on that event. And she will have had two Olympics of injustices. As the buzz has been, Laurie is the media-minded choice to remove- and again, enter my accepted conspiracy theory that she was scored generously to make her case for the AA.

Individually, they should rack up quite a haul.
AA: They are definitely favored to have two AA medalists. Simone is, of course, favored, and then whoever the second AAer is will be the favorite for silver.
VT: Favored for the gold
UB: People tend to be way too far to either end of the spectrum here. The US doesn't suck on bars, their lineup will be very strong. But Maddie Kocian is not a near-lock for a medal either. Potential for a medal.
BB: Suddenly beam has gotten a super deep field. There should be two Americans, though Simone's stranglehold on her spot is looking to be slackening. They could leave with two medals or none depending on the day, because beam is beam.
FX: Favored to go 1-2, but this could also potentially have some competition really making a push. Still should be fairly safe if they go clean.

And just for funsies, to prove Nastia at least semi-right, a B team that would be favored to medal:
Mykayla, Ragan, Ashton, Maggie, Amelia
VT: Maggie, Meals, Mykayla
UB: Maggie, Meals, Ashton
BB: Meals, Maggie, Ragan
FX: Maggie, Ragan, Mykayla


Other thoughts on night 2:

• I LOVE that MLT and Meals designated themselves the universal cheering section
• Scoring actually got somewhat reasonable for the most part, which was a bit surprising (and where Laurie's concerned, again, conspiracy theory)
• NBC was actually helpful in their commentary because I had been wondering which tribe Ashton... is a member of? belongs to? I don't know the PC terminology.
• Mykayla Skinner's floor where she just had a ball was life-giving! Especially that moment after her full-in where she just started mugging!
• Why can't the USAG YouTube channel at least upload the routines that weren't broadcast? Would it really hurt NBC's revenues for me to be able to watch Brenna's hit bars and Meals being the queen of Trials and Christina BEING THERE? (First-world problems, entitlement, throw whatever you got at me, I will still be disappointed that these videos won't exist- maybe some helpful soul will have illegally filmed those routines and will upload them?)
• That moment after the final routine when all the gymnasts were just celebrating their accomplishment was absolutely magical

...Into the Fire

We are halfway done with the US Trials, and in keeping with the 2012 go round, day 1 looked nervy. Martha is still saying she has the same team in mind she always has... I saw someone else saying why bother with a Trials process and just go ahead and pull a Russia and name the team in February if nothing that happens during that process actually affects anything? Because there should definitely have been some change in outlook during this process. Is this legitimate, or is she just trying to keep drama to a minimum?

The Core
Simone had one of her more "meh" nights. Honestly, I was a bit scared when they showed her Cheng- her block was way off to the side and it looked like her hand was close to missing the table. Hope she fixes that tomorrow, I'm more concerned from a safety standpoint there than anything else. Otherwise, her biggest error was of course beam, where she had the wonky wolf turn. Still held it, which is better than she's done in some bad beam situations domestically before, and what Martha would want were that in the team final. And the dismount!!!! Has it always been that high and floaty or have I just been too wrapped up in myself to notice? (I will love you if you get that reference.) She covered well otherwise, and it overall wasn't her best night, but I'd say it was about on par with her title-winning performance in the Worlds AA last year. She still had no falls and the best routines in the country on two events, so even if she wasn't Simone, her place should have been safe.

Aly had a pretty standard day, which puts her toward the top of the mental game tally. She had errors on vault and beam, but put up some of her best work on bars and killed floor. I think her vault was probably her worst of the domestic season so far, so it would be nice to see that back where it was tomorrow. Her scoring was pretty much what can be expected internationally, and she did precisely what she needed to do to keep herself a lock, which is just keep chugging along.

Laurie, on the other hand, was a bit gifted in scoring. Her vault was definitely not the best DTY of the night... I'd say the other ones that were broadcast were pretty much all better. So on that front... I'll be getting to that later. While she had some hiccups, she definitely acquitted herself well on the grit front- she made it through the rest of her bars routine calmly after her major break, and covered fabulously on her LOSO series on beam. I love the way she pulled a Chellsie Memmel 2006 TF and was all, "What error? No wobble, see!" As for her scoring, I saw a conspiracy theory that actually seems rather plausible... there's been a lot of talk going around about how the business side and marketability might affect who goes up for the AA, and maybe Laurie's scores are being inflated so the results override the commercial issue and she gets to be one of the three AAers.

On the #Mashton front, Martha's basically confirmed that Maddie pretty much sealed the deal last night. She's been more than just throwing but slamming down the gauntlet on bars the last couple go-rounds. She's always had the upper hand because we all know Martha is against true specialists on 5-person teams. The thing Ashton had going for her in the full team picture was the better beam hit record, which was erased last night (and then NBC decided to Hollie Vise it, great). It would take something unforeseen tomorrow to get Maddie off.

The Professor and Mary Ann
All that leaves one spot for the team, and the remaining gymnasts are in a bit of an odd position as they are pretty much all only big standouts on one event, which is in part due to the ridiculous strength of the 4-person core and in part due to the depth on each event.

So, where to make a splash? The preferable routines to replace would be Laurie's vault and Simone's bars, and I also think it would be nice to put someone else up for Laurie's floor, because again, that score is a little fantastical, but that doesn't really seem to be what USAG is going for and it's definitely a lower priority. As for whether vault or bars is more important, I think Simone's across-the-board strength make vault the more important from a score standpoint, but Martha will probably want to rest Simone on bars, so that I think will be higher from a Martha standpoint.

Gabby continues not to bring her best to the table. She had wonky turns on floor and a bunch of weird D-score happenings and a fall on beam, which are slightly less important events for her but still doesn't look very good. People (Martha, specifically) keep pulling the "she peaks later in the season" card, but at what point does that not make up for lackluster performances all season? This point in the process last quad, Gabby was consistently top 2, not outside the top 5. She was on an upward trajectory during the domestic season, and that hasn't been the case this year. And if we're letting gymnasts on the team based on how they might improve in the next month, doesn't it make at least as much sense to give that benefit of the doubt to Maggie since she was injured? But the good news for Gabby is that the preferably replaced spots are on her strong events. I think she had the stronger DTY last night when compared to Laurie, and her bars are good for a TF spot to give Simone a rest.

Maggie is looking good post-injury, but she's still racing the clock in terms of being back in time. She and Gabby had fairly even nights, I think, though Gabby is in the lead by 3 tenths. I disagree with them having the same score on beam, because Maggie had the more solid routine once you take into account their falls but only 1 tenth higher in E, but that's not the event that's going to make or break this puzzle. Her vault also tied with Gabby, with Gabby having a bit tighter form and Maggie having a bit better dynamics. Again, I think she had a stronger vault then Laurie. Her bars were okay, not great, sub-in-for-Simone-able, but there would be a deficit. All we know about her floor is that it was a hit, so without having anything to look at, there's no possible discussion of how realistic her scoring was there and how she compared to others, but we do know she has the fourth-highest floor D score. It's just such a shame that she got injured, because she would 90% likely have made herself a lock for the fifth spot by now otherwise.

I had sympathies for Mykayla in the last spot, and a lot of people who didn't previously have joined me in them after last night as she really made a push for herself and was one of only a few athletes to put out her best stuff. She would bring another 6.0+ vault to both the literal and proverbial table as well as a second vault final spot, though it would definitely be harder for her to medal there this time around than it was in Nanning, even if her Amanar returns, especially if Steingruber brings the front double. But even then, let's not forget she has a nice history of scoring better abroad than at home on vault. Her floor scored about what it did in Nanning last night, and I think it was slightly better executed, so I think she's right about in range with maybe a tenth that could be added. And once again, after wondering what her choreographer was smoking the first time I watched it, I now kinda like her floor. Really, in terms of how well the gymnasts performed, Mykayla should have rocketed herself to Rio, but there remains the issue of Simone having to do bars in TF, and doing AA in QF, TF, AA and then 3 EFs would be quite a load. She has definitely made herself a lock for at least alternate, though. But I just love how after not even making Trials in 2012 she came back and busted her butt and is really gunning for this Olympic team.

As for Ragan... I really just don't think it's in the cards for her this year, which is sad, because she's probably my favorite of the ones who had a legitimate chance. She just doesn't really fit into this puzzle- she's sort of this quad's Sarah Finnegan in as much as she'd most likely be on the team if Aly didn't exist. Beam is just pretty well covered, and floor (which she totally should not have been half a point behind Laurie on... but again, I buy that conspiracy theory) is less important this year than vault and bars. She's not committed to Oklahoma until the 2019-2020 season, so I really hope she doesn't follow Sarah Finnegan's footsteps in dropping down to level 10 and not continuing elite, because I think she could totally have success next quad.

So, who for that final spot?
VT: I think all 3 still in the running should be able to outscore Laurie here
UB: Mykayla's not usable. Maggie is sub-in-able while not necessary to put up in quals, making that picture much easier. Gabby is definitely the best here of the 3.
FX: Laurie would outscore Gabby. Maggie and Mykayla I think could both go either way in a scoring battle with Laurie.

Ironically enough, because I was saying I didn't think Gabby fit the whole time coming into Trials, while everybody else is less pro-Gabby after last night, I'm actually more pro-Gabby. I think she could very well outscore Laurie on vault and fits in the bars picture, making her the easiest to slot in on the money events. The problem then becomes UB in quals, which would get messy. She could potentially make the EF, but under all likely circumstances wouldn't medal, and then Simone, Aly, or Laurie couldn't do AA, or Maddie couldn't qualify to the EF, which would be rather pointless, and she has a much more legitimate chance at a medal than Gabby.

Mykayla compliments Maddie well, making quals easy, and would really add to the vault lineup, but then Simone would have to do all 4 in the TF, which, in addition to all the individual finals, would be quite a load.

Maggie would also be a good compliment to Maddie in quals, and could definitely be subbed in for bars in the TF, addressing both problems. I think she should also be able to outscore Laurie on vault and has potential on floor, making her good as a team player spot. In terms of the gymnast who fits the puzzle the best, I still think Maggie takes that role, but her lack of a standout event drags her down.

Gabby slots in the most easily, Mykayla brings a good scoring advantage as well as making the quals puzzle simpler, and Maggie is the most versatile. At this point, I'd still prefer Mykayla or Maggie in the fifth spot, but I can see the advantages of all the potential teams.


Miscellaneous

• Brenna hit bars and THERE IS NO WAY TO SEE IT
• I am just in general feeling twitchy at the lack of videos of every routine I've come to expect from US domestic meets. I hate NBC!
• On the subject of hating NBC, AL CALLED SIMONE GABBY. Can that please do him in?
• I'm so happy Meals is hitting! Can she please be an alternate? Pretty please? Another most any other team would love.
• Christina is competing and was in the background of the broadcast a ton so I got to see her even if none of her routines were shown and she's beating Gowey and Schild in the AA and she's hitting!!!
• MLT just casually popping up all the time. (Even though they never show Meals. Which they should.)
• I loved everyone asking other gymnasts "Could you hear me?" when they were done with their routines
• To quote my sister, "They have a ton of weird floor music this year." I'm not particularly happy with the turn US floor routines have taken this year, they seem either to have no focus with a few crowd-pandering moves thrown in or are just old choreography thrown together.

'Twas the night before Trials

13 videos of the 7 chosen gymnasts from whom the team will 95% likely be formed were uploaded today, providing a little discussion fodder on the eve before the 2016 Hunger Games- ahem, US Olympic Team Trials Women's Gymnastics.

Simone was not shown on vault or floor, weirdly enough, only on bars and beam. Simone is Simone is Simone, she hit and was super crisp and looks totally ready. There was not a single wobble on her beam, but I'm still wary of that Barani. Her dismount was SO FLOATY!! But anyway, she's Simone and performed in typical Simone fashion, next.

So, Aly. I love the way she landed that front pike super low and then just went "wolf jump, there, what landing issue?" You can also tell she has really put in the numbers on that layout to get it to a real stretched position. At this point, I honestly don't get why it's being downgraded- heck, even at P&Gs she had to submit an inquiry for it to be recognized! Seriously, it's a layout. Her form is Aly form, but that's not the realm of the D-score. What is the reason for downgrading? But still, no controversy where she's concerned, she's a lock, next.

Laurie looked as good as she has all year on vault. It would still be optimal for her not to be used there in the team final, though, so I think that really is going to be an important event for other battles to make the team. Her beam looked absolutely gorgeous, once again. She has downgraded her dismount from a BHS+BHS combo to just a round off into her double pike, potentially giving Aly a bit more stock in the second-beamer race. And she rounds off the locks. So to the races for the other two spots.

#Mashton

From the looks of things, this race is exactly the same as it has been the whole time. Maddie's got the difficulty edge, Ashton out-executes her, and Madison does all four events while Ashton eschews vault and floor. In who-brings-the-bigger-bars-score terms, Ashton gets the spot. In what-Martha-likes terms, Madison gets the spot because she does all four events. And we all know the latter terms are stronger than the former. I would be shocked if a true specialist is named. Leaving us with...

Gabby vs. Maggie

I was in favor of Maggie over Gabby back in January, and then only picked Gabby in May when I went with an entirely different team structure which has now fallen through. So post-P&Gs, I've been consistently pro-Maggie, and that's become an increasingly popular mindset. Here's the logic: Gabby is only consistently in contributing range on bars, so it makes more sense to bring Maggie who can contribute on multiple events. This is the battle where I think vault will really come into play, as I was referring to with Laurie up there. Which is where things could get interesting, and where we might actually have gotten some insight from the videos. Both gymnasts have been making noises all year about bringing out an Amanar, and Maggie only displayed a DTY in podium training. Unless she pulls a move like Aly at Classics last year, it looks like she's not going to get an Amanar nod. If I were the one picking the team, this would be my position: if Gabby does an Amanar, she goes regardless of Maggie's vault; if Gabby doesn't do an Amanar and Maggie does, Maggie goes; if neither Gabby nor Maggie does an Amanar, battle with advantage Maggie. I do think that even with just a DTY, she could very well outscore Gabby and Laurie on vault, and if she has floor back in fighting shape, she should outscore Laurie on floor, still giving her two events with potential for the lead off bars spot if they don't want to put Simone there. However, if I really use Martha-logic, I do think Gabby has the Martha advantage because... she just seems to.

Honestly, at this point, I've got a fair bit of sympathy for Mykayla in the last spot. Her floor scores have been the same as Laurie's, but I think that's a bit of a case of Laurie getting a boost. Mykayla does have a bit an interesting tendency to score at least as well internationally while her teammates experience a slight drop. She also is, of course, the US's only other hope for a vault medal, and would neatly finish off the vault lineup. The only real downside is her inclusion would mean Simone would have to do bars in the team final, which is not Martha's preference.

I do think Martha's team is most likely going to be Simone, Aly, Laurie, Maddie, and Gabby, even if it's not one I think is the best option. But then again, we all thought we knew what she was going to do last year, and then she went and named Brenna to the team. So who can really say?

So, is Svetlana Khorkina available?

Wait- countries other than the US exist? What?

So yeah, this blog has been a bit America-centric in the last few weeks, but the Russian Cup has come along and provided plenty of fodder for discussion. Mostly in the form of ranting, heavy sighs, and aggressive "UGGGHHH"s.

If you were hoping the Russians in Penza were going to display better preparation as we drew closer to the Olympics, sorry, because about the exact opposite happened. Awesome. Great. Who needs consistency, really? It's just a hallmark of dirty American gymnastics anyway.

Bars meltdowns were the big trend of day 1, which is worrying since that is supposed to be the event where Russia can get their big scores, and they're kind of depending on it to make up for where they lack on other events. They had 4 14+ routines, two of which came from Kapitonova, who fell, and Skrypnik, who we all know are never getting selected, one from Melnikova, who also fell, and the other from Spiridonova. And while Spiridonova is in genuine contention, she is dead weight everywhere else when Russia is looking to plug holes, and she even had her own issues with a .5 late pirouette. Paseka is back on vault despite some scares she might still be in traction or whatever was supposed to be going on with her, but only reached 13.25 on bars, where she is also supposed to be able to contribute, especially now with Vika out.

Angelina grabbed the beam and fell on her double pike dismount day 1, which was definitely worrying since who are we supposed to be able to put on beam if Melka starts breaking down? She pulled it together for a hit, if tentative, routine day 2 which made everyone let out an extremely tensely held breath, and so we carry on. She actually pulled everything together day 2, improving on bars as well for another hit and keeping pace on vault and floor. I won't be surprised if she is used on all four in the team final. But it does definitely make a contrast to the American nationals where pretty much everyone had their issues but only two who have at all legitimate shots actually fell, and then on routines where they're not needed.

Seda is actually pulling out about her best work yet, which is lovely to see and not exactly universal. Definitely reminds me of how she seemed to be the only Russian who actually cared about their performance at the end of the team final last year. The Rods seem to put her on teams even when her work makes her inclusion arguable, so I'd not be at all surprised to see her on the Olympic team, especially with so many being sidelined. She has been one of the top on beam in Penza, which I find more than just mildly amusing. But I think that amusement is outweighed by depression. Don't forget that she is at the top with a semi-crashed dismount day 1.

Aliya has fallen thrice on bars across the two days. That is about the last thing Russia needed or expected. One day can be a fluke off day, two days is concerning. She is back to the AA now, which is definitely a weight of Russia's collective shoulders, but man. She's still struggling to get an acro series in. Why doesn't she just have a BHS+BHS series at this point to make sure she gets it?

Afan and Kharenkova are both out with injury right now, to top everything off. Kharenkova was not the expected team member in the way Afan is, but she had the preferable hit record compared to Tutkhalyan, and with Vika out, Russia is in the throes of a HOW DO WE PUT TOGETHER A BEAM LINEUP??? crisis. (Side note: how much do you think Russia would love to have Ragan Smith right now?)

Afan's situation I think sums up the why Russia is in such a relative shambles. She got injured before Euros, and yet, instead of replace her with Kapitonova, she was still put up in competition. The reasoning? They would have had to rely on an FTY otherwise. And now she's spending the lead up to the Olympics in Germany getting surgery. The Rods never see beyond what's right under their nose. Not having three DTYs meant Russia might not win Euros, so she had to be kept, never mind that it might put her ability to compete in Rio at risk. It's the same thing they've been doing all quad. Remember when they had an Olympic-worthy Universiade team and then were scrambling to find three gymnasts they could send to Worlds? How about the number of minor competitions they've sent Aliya to instead of having her rest only for her to be weakened come the major season? They consistently put success at whatever competition they're at RIGHT NOW above success later in the season.

Alright, so the Olympic picture. Melnikova's in. Aliya's in, no matter what happened in Penza. The other two spots are between Paseka, Spiridonova, Afan, and Tutkhalyan. Honestly, to me, at this point, it makes sense just to take the team that has the most potential for individual success, which this group could still have a fair share of. The three picks for that would obviously be Paseka, Spiridonova, and Afan if she gets back. The problem there is either Spiridonova will have to go up on beam or Afan will have to get beam back, which is a lot to ask in her recovery. Tutkhalyan is preferable to Spiridonova for beam, but it's still kind of worrying that she's a lineup savior there.

I'm super excited about these juniors after P&Gs and you should be too

Junior competitions are always a blast because you just see a ton of talent and potential and you don't have everyone scrambling to prove their worth on a major team. Here are a few juniors who made me take notice for the first time in St. Louis- so no Maile types who we've all known forever.

Riley McCusker
It seems weird to be putting the silver medalist here, but how many people knew she existed before this season? I was taken aback to realize she'll be a senior next year- holding her from elite until this year seems to go very much against Maggie's strategies with Laurie, Jazzy, and Ari Agripides. I love how she has a different style from your stereotypical MG Elite- not as showy, it seems to me. I think she could be very much a Maggie type who turns senior the first year of the quad and than just keeps building. Her foundation she has now is beautiful, and I'd love to see her take on a role as an elegant type in the US.

Sunisa Lee
Her floor is what really caught my eye in St. Louis. I love her DLO and her choreography showed tons of promise! Her bars also have nice work. I'd love to her continue to develop in the next two years before she turns senior in 2019, because she totally has the talent and lovely style.

Madeline Johnston
Madeline caught my eye on bars, which is interesting because they were super low-scoring with only a 4.8 D score, but that's actually pretty similar to Kyla Ross and Morgan Hurd's D scores their first years as elite. What surprised me is she only got an 8.0 E score both days, seeing as she seemed quite clean to me. Especially day 2, that seems low to me.

Sloane Blakely
She's another one who has fairly simple routines at this point but just looks polished. Beam especially is where she stood out to me as one who didn't have the flashiest routine, didn't even have necessarily the steadiest performance, but looked comfortable in an elite competition setting. She didn't hit her acro series either night, and as a back tuck+back tuck series, that just seems to be begging not to be credited (also, thumbs up to you, USAG judges, for not just crediting everything attempted or ignoring a completely missing CR for once and actually encouraging gymnasts to change composition that's not working for them- keep this up), but overall she just seems way more confident than I expect from a new junior.

Lauren Letzsch
Lauren's floor is fabulous and honestly reminds me more of what you'd  expect from a Russian junior than a stereotypical American junior- she has that look of Russian juniors who've been around the top scene their whole lives. She also, like Sunisa, has an awesome DLO and I love her twisting connection! Sealing the "you look like you're a Russian junior" deal is her fabulous double L+Memmel turn connection. She definitely had some rough spots on other events, but she does some nice work and I'd like to see it built upon.

Cameron Machado
Cameron really shows promise across the board. She has about middling difficulty everywhere, which is perfect for her since she's a 2019 senior, and her execution and presentation really is quite polished, setting her up well. Like I said, she really has talent on all four events, which makes me hope she'll emerge as a balanced (and stylish) AAer.

Also, I mentioned her in my Classics/Euros bullet post, but I'm gonna give Tori Tatum a bit of an extended mention here as well. I just love her style and line. Beam is unfortunately rather a thorn in her side, but she has two more years on the junior level to build confidence there and she really is just lovely on the other three events. She ups the standard junior vault difficulty a bit with a 1.5 twister, and it is gorgeous.

Out of the frying pan....

Well, Nationals are over, and for the juniors, that means we got to see some lovely new talent, and for the seniors, the field has now been cut to the 15 who will be contending for Olympic spots. May the odds be ever in your favor!

The Good

• Christina is going to Trials blessings all around!!
• Aly. What a weekend.
• Maile O'Keefe reminded everybody she exists and slayed the life out of that competition
• Riley All-the-silvers McCusker
• Brenna hit bars night 2!!
• And when she had trouble night 1 muscled through and didn't come off. I'm accepting reality that she won't be named to the team, but I am stoked that she held on both nights!
• Meals placed 6th AA and earned an automatic Trials birth GET THAT ALTERNATE SPOT
• Ragan put together the hit skills on the beam with a strong Patterson night 2 glory hallelujah
• Chae Campbell's vault
• Laurie. Beam. Night 1.
• Trinity Thomas taking flight on her rebound from her DLO
• Simone just casually getting 16s on floor and a 9.9 E score on vault, no biggie. I was honestly half expecting them to give that vault a 10.
• Maddie Kocian coming out night 2 and being all "Top that, go ahead, try" with that bar routine
• Nia Dennis placing on bars after a freaking Achilles injury in February

The Bad

• Gabby just seemed kind of off
• Morgan Hurd also was off
• Mykayla Skinner beam night 2. But 5 years from now I will still be celebrating the way she just turned her fall onto the beam into choreography. Work it.
• Jordan Chiles and Emma Malabuyo both being pulled for injury. Fortunately it's nothing too serious for either, right?
• Maggie's issues on bars night 2

The Ugly

• Deanne Soza's meltdown day 2. I hate to use such sensationalist language, but that's what it was. But again, she could very easily be blind right now. So priorities.
• Chae Campbell's dismount day 1.
• Ragan's Grishina night 1

Juniors Won Things Too It's Not Just Pre-Trials Yay!
Maile absolutely destroyed this competition. She hasn't always been the most consistent athlete in the past, so it was wonderful to see her go 8-for-8 and take the top spot in the midst of a competition riddled with issues. She's a 2018 senior, so I'm looking forward to seeing what she can bring next year as a last-year junior. I just love her double Arabian bars dismount! Her beam is completely astounding, and I really hope she can keep up this level of consistency there as she continues through her career. And I just love her giant smile when she landed her last tumbling pass day 2 and knew she had the title!
Riley is just a beautiful gymnast. Her extension and presentation is just picture-perfect. The only area with real error was her twisting (and her fall on her UB dismount day 2, but those things happen). I love seeing her floor with a non-Laurie-copycat style, which we haven't really seen from MG Elite. Everything just looked so easy for her! I'm excited to see what we see from her next year- when she'll be a senior, what?
Gabby is one I'm enjoying watching work her way to the top. She isn't always the top scorer, but she always chugs along and tends to capitalize. Her bars and beam have awesome work, and I think she has big things ahead of her!

Al's Moments of Gold

97% of the time I feel like "Replace Al with anybody, please. Literally anybody." And then there's the other 3% of the time when he comes up with gold ("Excuse me Mr. Dagget" being my favorite, of course) and I'm all "Never leave us, Al, never leave." And Al hit gold a couple times night 2.

• (To Tim) "You do a better Bela"
• "Shawn Johnson won the silver in the all around in the Olympics behind a very annoying woman"
• When he said "Flag up in the corner" so intently after Gabby's floor routine, not because the line itself was great, but because you could tell he was SO EXCITED to be correcting Tim and not playing the idiot for 2 seconds, you could tell he was just thinking "This is my moment of glory!" and reveling in it

The Olympic Puzzle

My 100%s: Simone, Aly, Laurie

Simone because duh. Aly because she has an Amanar and contributes on beam and is a favorite for a floor medal. Laurie because of bars and beam.

No, not Gabby. I'm one of about 27 who don't have her as a lock, and of those 27 I'm one of about 4 who doesn't have her there for a reason other than "She beat Miss Precious Perfect in London." Whether Miss Precious Perfect is Vika or Jordyn for that specific person.

My Fighting Contenders: Maggie, Gabby, Maddie, Mykayla

Alright, so why Gabby isn't a lock for me. As of now, she is only consistently in contributing range on bars, and to me, it just doesn't make sense to bring her just for bars. It's not like last quad where it would have been worth bringing her just for bars because the actual specialists were dead weight on the other events where we needed contributors and she had top AAer clout. The bars specialist situation is quite different this quad and she's being outstripped in the AA currently. She did outscore Laurie on vault night 2, and if I were Martha, she'd need to keep that up to get on the Gabby's on the team train. Or if she finally busts out the rumored Amanar.

Obviously we only saw two events from Maggie, but if she comes back fighting fit on vault and floor and Gabby doesn't withdraw a bigger vault from the bank, I'd take Maggie ahead of Gabby for vault and floor and lead off on bars. So many people are losing their minds over the idea of Maggie going up on bars in the team final, but she was the lead off last year and scored 14.8, so why? Though her night 2 bars didn't do her any favors.

On the Koclear front, Martha likes AA specialists over true specialists, so even though Ashton is better on bars and has been steadier on beam in the domestic season, Madison gets the bars specialist spot, assuming there is one. Which I think is about an 85% likelihood.

Mykayla has value for vault and floor, as usual, especially for having two vaults and a potential medal position with the potential for a medal with Bee Farm's questionable status. Of course, the problem is that Simone would have to go up on bars in TF with Mykayla on a team with Aly, which the US doesn't like to do.

My Outsiders: Amelia, Ashton, Ragan, Brenna

Amelia is killing it and she has huge vaulting and awesome bars, which fits nicely with the 3 up top, and she's just awesome, okay? Get that alternate spot!

Ashton has the disadvantage of being a true specialist and not doing all events, but her scores are giant (not saying entirely uninflated), and so she still must be given consideration.

After Ragan's rough Nationals, I just don't think the Olympics is in the cards for her, but she's just such a strong athlete that you still just can't count her out yet.

And Brenna. I still can't count her out completely. And vault and bars!

Some Favorite Routines
Juniors
Vault- Chae Cambell, day 2

This was just ridiculously high and flighty

Bars- Morgan Hurd, day 2

She swings so nicely in this routine, and she got the upgraded dismount quite well!

Beam- Maile O'Keefe, day 2

SHE DOES A DUDNIK ACRO SERIES

Floor- Riley McCusker, day 2

I love her style and presentation, and she's overall clean in the tumbling for the most part

Seniors
Vault- Simone Biles, night 2

Unfortunately, it seems USAG's camera spazzed out during this vault so we only get the crappy back-up camera quality

Bars- Brenna Dowell night 2

She made it through the routine without major error!

Beam- Laurie Hernandez night 1/Ragan Smith night 2

Yes, I tied them. Laurie's is perfection and I love Ragan's too much to bother much with the wobble on the full. Side note- can USAG please be consistent on whether it's "Laurie" or "Lauren" with their video titles? It's not even consistent within the same year.

Floor- Aly Raisman, night 2

This is just a wow routine. Her presentation has improved so much from last quad, and I think her form was about the best I've seen it in this one.

Trials Spots Predictions

Like with my May Rio predictions, it's the Olympic year, so why not make the most of it?

Simone Biles
Aly Raisman
Gabby Douglas
Maggie Nichols
Laurie Hernandez
Ragan Smith
Madison Kocian
Ashton Locklear
Brenna Dowell
Mykayla Skinner
Alyssa Baumann
Rachel Gowey
Amelia Hundley
Bailie Key
Emily Schild

Simone, Aly, Gabby, Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, and Maddie I'd say are all locks. Ashton, Brenna, and Mykayla I think are all near-locks. They should be the pack of legitimate contenders for the team.

If Alyssa and Rachel keep putting together AA sets like they had at Classics, I don't think they should have any trouble making Trials, because while they're pretty much out of the team picture, they both could legitimately make good alternates, and Alyssa especially would be a perfectly fine team member if the situation demanded. Meals I also expect to get a spot fairly easily. She might not have an Amanar, but her DTY is big and easy, and she can swing bars nicely; in addition, she's gotten more solid on beam and has a history of strong floor work.

Bailie, of course, we have yet to see in competition this year, but her bars from PT at Classics looked very nice and along the lines of last year's work. If she comes back as expected, she should be in with the three above.

So that leaves one filler spot. I went with Schild because she has strong vault and bars and is okay on the other two events. I think if the US experienced some sort of annihilation of their gymnastics team and only five of the gymnasts at Trials could compete at the end, and one of those gymnasts had to be the filler spot, Martha would want Emily because she has two strong events and hit beam both times she's competed on it this season.

I think the other options for the filler spot would be Jazmyn Forberg and maybe Christina Desiderio. Jazzy had a really rough Classics, but if she doesn't keep melting down at Nationals, she has some strong routines with good difficulty. Christina also has a good AA set, and she scored above 14 on all her routines at Classics. Having a steady Nationals might put her in the mix for Trials.

Rant/USA depth analysis

So, I saw some idiot saying that the US doesn't really have depth right now, and because I'm irritable like that, I decided to do a little combination rant/analysis post to prove 'em wrong.

And because some idiot also recently submitted a confession to GFC saying the US was putting all of its eggs in one basket with Simone, let's start by talking about how there are still near limitless options with her gone. Without Simone, there are still Gabby, Aly, Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Brenna, and Mykayla at the top, and then Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals (she killed it at Classics and VT/UB workers are well suited to the team and her floor is awesome and I'll totally get all Hagrid don't-insult-Albus-Dumbledore-in-front-of-me when it comes to Meals) on the outside as well. That's 13 totally viable options to choose from. And a combination of options that would make picking out of a hat a viable option for a gold-contending team.

To prove my point, I had a little fun with a random generator and here are the five gymnasts I got: Aly, Bailie, Alyssa, Brenna, Rachel
VT: (Bailie) Alyssa, Brenna, Aly
UB: (Aly) Bailie, Rachel, Brenna
BB: (Rachel) Bailie, Aly, Alyssa
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Brenna, Aly
This team is definitely not close to as strong as the one that will be named assuming some plague doesn't befall the team or VRod doesn't hire the Russian mafia to Tanya Harding everyone, and China would definitely be narrowing in on it, but it would still be in the hunt for the top prize.

Too easy? Of course. Alright, let's constrain the team only to gymnasts who turned senior this quad, so not only eliminating Gabby and Aly, but also Brenna and Mykayla. So that leaves Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
I'd pick a team of Maggie, Laurie, Ragan, Maddie, and Alyssa
VT: Alyssa/Ragan, Laurie, Maggie
UB: (Ragan) Maggie, Laurie, Maddie
BB: (Maggie) Alyssa, Laurie, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Laurie, Ragan, Maggie
And this one is stronger than my random generator team (not that surprising, really), so again, strong contenders for gold.

Still too easy? Maggie and Laurie carried that last team- let's get rid of them too. So now the group is reduced to Ragan, Maddie, Ashton, Alyssa, Bailie, Rachel, and Meals.
So the team I'd pick now is Ragan, Alyssa, Bailie, Maddie, and Meals
VT: Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Alyssa/Bailie/Ragan, Meals
UB: (Ragan) Bailie, Meals, Maddie
BB: (Meals) Bailie, Alyssa, Ragan
FX: (Alyssa) Bailie, Meals, Ragan
Still four strong lineups, still expected to medal, still potential for gold.

So name me another team where you could constrain selection to only gymnasts who turned seniors this quad and THEN cut out the top three remaining AAers and still have a team that would be considered as much a lock for a medal as a team can ever be in this sport.

China:
Alright, so out goes Shang Chunsong, Tan Jiaxin, Liu Tingting, Wang Yan, and Mao Yi.
The team: Chen Siyi, Fan Yilin, Huang Huidan, Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru
VT: Zhu Xiaofang, Liu Jinru, Chen Siyi
UB: Zhu Xiofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
BB: Zhu Xiaofang, Huang Huidan, Fan Yilin
FX: Zhu Xiaofang, Chen Siyi, Liu Jinru
Bars is still great, and beam is fine enough, but they're stuck with an FTY on vault and floor is once again a weakness.

Russia:
For the Russian we-expect-80%-of-our-team-to-be-repeat-Olympians Federation, out go Aliya, Vika, Afan, Maria Bee Farm, Angelina Melnikova, Seda Tutkhalyan, and Maria Kharenkova.
The team: Natalia Kapitonova, Evgenia Shelgunova, Daria Skrypnik, Anastasia Dmitrieva, Daria Spiridonova
VT: Shelgunova, Skrypnik, Dmitrieva
UB: Skrypnik, Kapitonova, Spiridonova
BB: Spiridonova/Kapitonova, Skrypnik, Shelgunova
FX: Kapitonova, Dmitrieva, Shelgunova
Three DTYs for them and the bars lineup is still killer, but relying on Spiridonova, Kapitonova, or Skrypnik on beam is never a good idea and Shelgunova has been very up and down there this year as well, so who knows how many would stay on. Floor also has three okay routines, but is lacking any standout and would be outstripped pretty easily.

Even with these ridiculous eleventh plague of the Exodus plague on the gymnasts constraints, China and Russia would still be able to put together pretty good teams that would acquit themselves well, but with Brazil and GB mounting fierce offensives, both of them would have stiff competition for a place on the podium. But compare them to the US plague on the gymnasts team, who would still be a practical shoe-in for a medal and could mount a good offensive for gold, and it's ridiculously obvious that the US does, in fact, lead the world in depth.